Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Bootes Void]

While there is  bit of a honeymoon period for Biden, it won't be as strong as previous presidents because of partisanship/polarization and all the disputes that going on. All this stuff is putting a lid on that Is think

[Bootes Void]

lots of bitter trumpers are still giving biden negative marks over the transition, even though he has done a fine job

[Bootes Void]

Hot take: the Biden presidency will have an almost as stable approval rating as the Trump administration.

This but only after its first six months.

But it will be not in the high 30s or low 40s like it was most of Trump's. Most likely high 40s I would say

[Bootes Void]

I don’t see Joe Biden having all that terrible approvals even after the honeymoon period. At worse, they will go down to about 55% during the 2022 midterm elections.

My guess is anywhere between 47 and 52.

52% sounds about right. I think that Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy will have the highest approval ratings of any political leaders during the Biden Administration (55%).

Mitch McConnell seriously ?

[Bootes Void]

If Biden trys to govern like a wishy washy 90s democrat then he will be in the low 40s but if he actually makes a case for his presidency and works to engage with his base then maybe high 40s wont be too bad.

That being said, I dont think people in the Biden era will obsess over approval rating like they did in the Trump era

[Bootes Void]

23% approval on transition? Wow!

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Biden offered me a ticket to the Inauguration if I donated but I politely turned it down

It's good that you did. Your presence there would only make the occasion an even bigger target for right wing extremists. Biden, Harris, Pelosi, Schumer, the former Presidents, and Olawakandi all in one place!? There isn't enough security in the world for that!

If any of those extremists came to Olawakandi, he will pull out his AUTHORITARIAN Nut maps and demand a reopening of the saloons . Would be over for them.

[Bootes Void]

Civiqs has consistently been the most bearish for Biden, I have to wonder if they are going to change anything up

[Bootes Void]

His approval is probably gonna be in the low 30’s. Far left will turn on him.


And no, I don’t care about the BS MSM polling. Rasmussen is more reliable

wtf? why would the "far left"turn on him?

[Bootes Void]

First Quinnipiac poll-

Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 36%


FAVORABLE RATINGS-

Joe Biden has a 53% favorable rating and a 38% unfavorable.
Kamala Harris has a 45% favorable rating and a 35% unfavorable. 18% do not have an opinion.
Jill Biden has a 44% favorable rating and an 18% unfavorable. 35% don't have an opinion.


CONGRESS JOB APPROVAL RATINGS-

Democrats: 44/46% (-2)
Chuck Schumer: 37/42% (-5)
Nancy Pelosi: 45/47% (-2)

Republicans: 26/64% (-38)
Mitch McConnell: 21/67% (-46)
Kevin McCarthy: 27/45% (-18)

I do understand that Quinnipiac had a notable D bias in the past two election cycles, but this isn't the only pollster showing a massive favorability gap between the Democrats and the Republicans.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3688

According to Quinnipiac, Joe Biden has a 29% approval rating with white men along with 55% approval rating with white women. They still havent fixed up their polling mistakes, what a joke.

[Bootes Void]

Monmouth
February 25-March 1
802 adults
MoE: 3.5%

Changes with January 2021

Approve 51% (-3)
Disapprove 42% (+12)
No opinion 8% (-8)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_030321.pdf/

Oh dear god.
At this rate we will be having a 2010 midterm.

You seem to be dooming alot. You also have to wait and see the economic recovery as well to know how it ends up

[Bootes Void]

I was hoping for a longer honeymoon, but i guess in these partisan times, a long presidential honeymoon is probably impossible.

I figure we'll have a somewhat similar situation to Trump in a a few months. Except instead of Biden being stuck in the mid 40s, he'll hover around the low 50s.

I personally think Biden can crack that low 50s ceiling as the country opens up and the economy starts roaring back. Until then, partisanship will win the day.

Biden approval rating hasn't dropped much in the last few months

[Bootes Void]

Biden is not -15 in Ga and lower than Missouri lol

[Bootes Void]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/03/16/new-poll-shows-cuban-american-voters-align-with-gop-1368365

Biden favourability rating among Cuban Americans
45% favourable
51% unfavourable


- Trump has a 62% favourability rating, same as the share of the vote he got in 2020
- Hardline attitudes against Cuba are back according to this poll

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1378368158617247747

The generic ballots are D+4 as mentioned in the article which currently could be enough to hold the house. Although things will change with redistricting and get more unfavourable as time goes on.

[Bootes Void]

Biden now has a higher approval rating than Bill Clinton had at this point in his presidency.

Hopefully Biden's first midterm isn't as disastrous as Clinton's

Both Clinton and Obama had 257-258 house seats while Biden has 222 house seats(in a already favourable GOP gerrymander)so I doubt you would see very big losses as it would be mathematically difficult.

[Bootes Void]

These jokers said Biden would win PA by 7. Why should I believe anything they say?

This is probably an act but it is fun to look back at final Data For Progress polls:
AZ - Biden +3
CO - Biden +12
FL - Biden +3 (yikes)
GA - Biden +2
IA - Trump +2
ME - Biden +14
MI - Biden +5
MN - Biden +9
NV - Biden +7
NC - Biden +2


Too bored to go further but seems like their house effect in 2020 was D+5 or so.

what about the vote share %, i think that might be more accurate

[Bootes Void]

Let's see, this is just one poll, though the numbers on the economy and China aren't great. As is immigration.

That's not really something that could easily change , people naturally think that's dem are better on domestic issues(not crime however) but republicans are better on national security/ foreign issues which explains the subpar ratings on Russia/China.

[Bootes Void]

The thing with Biden's approval too, at least compared with Trumps, is that with Trump you pretty much had every Trump voter always saying they approved of him, no matter what. It was universal.

With Biden, however, you have more a voter base that is willing to say they disapprove of him or don't agree, even if they voted for him and would vote for him again.

Especially with the 18-34 base. Look at Monmouth, it's 45/38/17. So not only are the #s skewed bc of the nearly 20% who 'don't know' but you only have +7 approve with a crowd that was over Biden +20 in the election. They're just more willing to voice when they don't agree, versus Trump's cult that would always say they agreed no matter what.

I think it's so interesting though that Biden is -15 with Indies here too. Again, I do believe that the Indie samples are varying greatly depending on the pollster, but I also think it's certainly ridiculous that so many independents were fine with Trump, giving him better ratings when he was out there doing nothing and causing a sh**t storm, and then now when Biden is actually getting things done, and trying to get things done, they're suddenly disapproving.

I just want to point out that Trump did drop into the mid 30s in approval back in 2017 and was mostly in the low 40s for most of his presidency despite getting 47% of the vote (46 in 2016)

[Bootes Void]

Seems like the media really did some damage

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It's not just that, the Covid situation and the economy have gotten worse. He hasn't signed any big legislation since the Covid legislation back in March along with the honeymoon wearing off.

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https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1429428649162428417

NBC's bipartisan team of pollsters say Covid -- more than Afghanistan -- has dented the president's numbers.

There was full approval of the Covid vaccine so you will have to wait and see what happens

[Bootes Void]

Among RV/LV.

When you've lost 538...

Must've killed Nate that he couldn't amplify poll effects or national effects to get his desired result.

Oh well, the more time Nate spends on shoddy analysis of politics, the less time he spends on even worse analysis of sports.

I dont think this is an opinion site, averages arent opinion

[Bootes Void]

I said throughout much of 2019 and 2020 that I regretted attacking Hillary in 2016 because of how much worse Biden was. I think the one positive for Biden is she would not have withdrawn from Afghanistan.

The withdrawal plan was done in February 2020. You stick to it or start another war with the Taliban(when they force you to leave)

[Bootes Void]

wbrocks wondered how come pollsters show Biden down by high single digits in Florida and New Hampshire. Well, Marist #s tell it all.

Approve
43/51  (RV)
80/12 (among Biden 2020 voters)
3/95 (among Trump voters)

Strongly:
20/42   (RV)
39/6 (among Biden 2020 voters)
3/87 (among Trump voters)

If it remains as this (big if) = likely big entusiasm problem.

Holy smokes 87% strongly dissaproval? That's crazy