Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Covid isn't deadly unless you have an underlying heart disease or cancer and the Homeless are the main ones as carriers if the virus. The reason why we got Covid is the fact we never got a handle on the TB crisis, which is it's first cuz Covid.

We are still gonna have to socially distance til the future and we are in a new economy, alot of jobs aren't coming back, but deaths of the virus will be eliminated

Korea which shows Korean Baseball ⚾ shows people attending ballgames but with masks but no Concessionaires

[pbrower2a]

Covid isn't deadly unless you have an underlying heart disease or cancer and the Homeless are the main ones as carriers if the virus. The reason why we got Covid is the fact we never got a handle on the TB crisis, which is it's first cuz Covid.

We are still gonna have to socially distance til the future and we are in a new economy, a lot of jobs aren't coming back, but deaths of the virus will be eliminated

Korea which shows Korean Baseball ⚾ shows people attending ballgames but with masks but no Concessionaires

Age. I am 64, and even if I do not have heart trouble, cancer, diabetes, STD's, drug addiction, or cirrhosis I already have a pre-existing condition in age alone. COVID-19 scares me as AIDS did thirty years ago.

Did you hear what Kristen Urquiza had to say at the Democratic National Convention?

"My dad was a healthy 65-year-old. His only pre-existing condition was trusting Donald Trump, and for that, he paid with his life...The coronavirus has made it clear that there are two Americas; the America that Donald Trump lives in and the America that my father died in. Enough is enough. Donald Trump may not have caused the coronavirus, but his dishonesty and his irresponsible actions made it so much worse"

— Kristin Urquiza at the 2020 Democratic National Convention

I am one year younger than Mark Urquiza was when he died of COVID-19, I am not Hispanic, and I do not live in Arizona. I have seen Donald Trump as a questionable character since I first heard of him, and he has done nothing to gain my trust. Other than that... I could have died like Mark Urquiza because my differences with him are superficial at most.   

250,000 deaths and counting in a bungled stalemate in war is not in American taste. America has surpassed deaths on the Union side in the Civil War and is approaching the 321,871 deaths and missing-in-action from combat (and probably custody) in World War II -- with the recent surge in COVID-19 cases that seem to follow super-spreader events this autumn I see no reason to believe that we won't surpass military deaths of American soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines, Coast Guard, and Merchant Marines in WWII by the time that Joe Biden is inaugurated.

At least with World War II the US Army emancipated people in Dachau, Buchenwald, and Mauthausen and put an end to gangster regimes in (Vichy) France, Germany, Italy, and Japan. 

Until America wins the war (and it is a war, at least from the standpoint of casualties) against COVID-19 we will endure mass death. Speaking of wars -- by now the largest group of wartime veterans of any American war are Vietnam-era veterans. Soldiers who faced an enemy as dangerous as the Vietcong and North Vietnamese Army now face an even deadlier one in COVID-19.

...as for South Korea... I have never been there, but from what I have heard if I ever went there I might say "I have seen the future, and it works!" (you know where that line comes from!)

[Hope For A New Era]

Interesting to see the 60% number. Curious to see if polarization can keep it there. Obama was able to stay above 60% until early June 2009, then dropped precipitously during the summer, and leveled out in the mid-40s by January 2010, where he remained for most of the rest of his presidency as polarization really got going.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama made mistakes, he didn't end the filibuster with a simple majority vote and he didnt pass legislation to repeal the Bush W tax cuts and he pushed thru a partisan ACA tax penalty thru Congress, that's why his approvals suffered to low 40s, if D's assume the Trifecta again, pending GA, they will seek to get rid of fillibuster eventhough Manchin made that pledge he can revoke it and he will be pressured to.

He didn't put that in the record in the Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Majority of voters now want a GOP controlled Senate

The Pelosi 2.2T or nothing Stimulus is backfiring, Unemployment is gonna run out and we are endangered of a Govt shutdown by Dec 11th and Dev 25th

The states don't have 600 dollars for unemployment that expired already in it's gonna be closer to 300 and that doesn't encompass 2=2T no longer

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Nov. 21-24, 1500 RV

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way President-Elect Joe Biden is handling the post-election period?"

Approve 55 (+1)
Disapprove 37 (+3)

Strongly approve 40 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 26 (nc)

[Bootes Void]

lots of bitter trumpers are still giving biden negative marks over the transition, even though he has done a fine job

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Hot take: the Biden presidency will have an almost as stable approval rating as the Trump administration.

This but only after its first six months.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only measure of Biden approvals after first 100 days, that is the Honeymoon period, then only then, will has weight on midterms where if it falls to 44 D's are endangered of losing seats and D's don't have a big majority

His approvals can fall to that in a heartbeat in a Covid Environment but will it be substained like Trump has, is a different story.

We know that Rs want to blame the ill will on the Trump admin on Biden so they can pickup seats in midterms

R pollsters and Mr Phelps keep saying Rs are gonna sweep midterms

[pbrower2a]

I remember seeing approval numbers near 60% nationwide for Barack Obama in early 2009. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

11% unemployment and he and Biden refused to get rid of legislative filibuster to allow DC Statehood were the main blunders of tea party revolt of 2010, that's why if D's get 51/49, majority in Jan, D's are gonna move quickly to solidify DC or PR Statehood

[pbrower2a]

High unemployment at the start of the Biden Administration will be faulted upon Donald Trump and COVID-19.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tell to the R naysayers that says that's Rs are gonna sweep the House in 2022 due to taters in the economy, but they won't come on this thread because you will check them

[Hope For A New Era]

I remember seeing approval numbers near 60% nationwide for Barack Obama in early 2009. 

He was over 60% until early June, then collapsed. Was in the mid-40s by December, where he remained for most of the rest of his presidency.

[Bootes Void]

Hot take: the Biden presidency will have an almost as stable approval rating as the Trump administration.

This but only after its first six months.

But it will be not in the high 30s or low 40s like it was most of Trump's. Most likely high 40s I would say

[pbrower2a]

I remember seeing approval numbers near 60% nationwide for Barack Obama in early 2009.  

He was over 60% until early June, then collapsed. Was in the mid-40s by December, where he remained for most of the rest of his presidency.

Mid-forties a year before the election is typically just enough for winning re-election for an incumbent Governor or Senator. What really kills an incumbent's chances of winning re-election is typically disapproval numbers. Obama didn't get much above 50% disapproval in any state that he eventually won. At any time I see 100-disapproval as the ceiling for the electoral result for an incumbent.  It is possible to get 49% of the popular vote in a state and still win it in a nearly two-way race due to third-party nominees who allow a 49-47-3 split of the vote. Getting 55% disapproval means that one must win with 45% of the vote. For obvious reasons that almost never works. Few phenomena make an incumbent able to come back from 53% disapproval.

Cultural change going in his favor? That precludes his initial election. New voters coming to his side? That rarely works because there just aren't enough new voters. Throwing money at voters through subsidies? That brought Trump closer than otherwise, especially very rural states and Rust Bowl states getting so rusty that agriculture becomes a larger share of the electorate.

Practically all elected Presidents, like Governors and Senators, lose some support once they start governing or legislating. A spirited and competent campaign against the 'average' challenger is good for raising support about 6.5% on the average for an incumbent, according to Nate Silver in his Myth of 50%. This explains why

(1) incumbents with 43% or 44% approval at the start of the electoral season get elected, but those with less generally don't -- but those with even 45% approval (or who match up as 45% against a generic opponent from the opposition party) typically slip by. Incumbents who have support in the middle-30's range rarely run for re-election because they know that defeat looms.

(2) those with even 50% approval (or who match up as 45% against a generic opponent from the opposition party) typically win by large margins and lose only if they do something so egregious as to have a "Macaca" moment (Senator George Allen, Jr.) while in a race with an unusually-strong opponent. It is possible to throw away the advantage of incumbency with initial support near 50%; it does not happen often.

(3) appointed pols do less well in getting re-elected because they typically did nothing that suggests that they could ever win the seat Senators Bennett (R-CO), Smith (D-MN), and Scott (R-SC) have shown that they were solid-enough politicians or well fit the political cultures of their states... in contrast to the spouse of someone who died in office, some political hack serving perhaps a dying machine, or someone 'honored' for long and distinguished service to his state's party.

(4) in case you wonder how the system works with politicians on whom scandals are about to break... the journalists who cover the politicians know that something bad is going on and never write or report positively about such a pol. Such pols are typically more secretive and less ebullient than others, and such is not good for setting up an upcoming victory. If "Governor Graft" is taking bribes from contractors for diverting a freeway project toward the property of big donors, then the public is the last to know. The media are cautious about breaking such a story.

(5) So what about major changes in the political climate, such as a surge of right-wing populism in 2010? That showed by early 2010. Incumbent Democrats were in trouble in most states, and that remained a stable reality.

...Obama was always in a position in which he was likely to win re-election, which is more than anyone could say about Donald Trump after spring 2017.

We will see Gallup nationwide polls (Gallup does not do statewide polls) that will contrast Biden to Trump, Obama, and other Presidents back to Truman. Gallup may not be a great pollster, but it has more historical data than any other pollster.  We will see analogues for other Presidents of the past, and we will see whether he is a mirror image of Donald Trump or a liberal version of Ronald Reagan, or whatever is in between.

[MATTROSE94]

I don’t see Joe Biden having all that terrible approvals even after the honeymoon period. At worse, they will go down to about 55% during the 2022 midterm elections.

[Person Man]

I don’t see Joe Biden having all that terrible approvals even after the honeymoon period. At worse, they will go down to about 55% during the 2022 midterm elections.

My guess is anywhere between 47 and 52.

[here2view]

I expect Biden to remain roughly around 50/45, much like Trump was pretty much always around 43/52

[MATTROSE94]

I don’t see Joe Biden having all that terrible approvals even after the honeymoon period. At worse, they will go down to about 55% during the 2022 midterm elections.

My guess is anywhere between 47 and 52.

52% sounds about right. I think that Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy will have the highest approval ratings of any political leaders during the Biden Administration (55%).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don’t see Joe Biden having all that terrible approvals even after the honeymoon period. At worse, they will go down to about 55% during the 2022 midterm elections.

My guess is anywhere between 47 and 52.

52% sounds about right. I think that Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy will have the highest approval ratings of any political leaders during the Biden Administration (55%).

Lol McConnell approvals have been stuck at 35%

[Person Man]

I don’t see Joe Biden having all that terrible approvals even after the honeymoon period. At worse, they will go down to about 55% during the 2022 midterm elections.

My guess is anywhere between 47 and 52.

52% sounds about right. I think that Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy will have the highest approval ratings of any political leaders during the Biden Administration (55%).

Maybe they will get close in approval to Biden’s disapproval.

[pbrower2a]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Nov. 21-24, 1500 RV

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way President-Elect Joe Biden is handling the post-election period?"

Approve 55 (+1)
Disapprove 37 (+3)

Strongly approve 40 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 26 (nc)

That looks almost like a mirror image of some polls that I associated with Trump. Such explains why it seems like a non-change... until one reads around the numbers.

I will never miss numbers like this that I often saw with Trump:

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump is performing the duties of the Presidency?"

Approve 37
Disapprove 55

Strongly approve 26
Strongly disapprove 40

The problem wasn't that those numbers appeared. The problem was that we had a President for whom such numbers were so amply earned.

[Bootes Void]

I don’t see Joe Biden having all that terrible approvals even after the honeymoon period. At worse, they will go down to about 55% during the 2022 midterm elections.

My guess is anywhere between 47 and 52.

52% sounds about right. I think that Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy will have the highest approval ratings of any political leaders during the Biden Administration (55%).

Mitch McConnell seriously ?

[Badger]

High unemployment at the start of the Biden Administration will be faulted upon Donald Trump and COVID-19.

Not in a million years. Do we remember how many people blamed bush for high employment early in the Obama Administration, even though the economic collapse clearly took place on his watch and he merely handed Obama the keys after the car was on fire?

Voters always always always blame the person in charge when things aren't going bad. Biden will be no exception