Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[soundchaser]

LaToya has burned a TON of good will in just the last few weeks. There’s no way she has a shot at statewide office.

[soundchaser]

I really, really hope Cassidy runs, even if I don't think he'd win in a one-on-one race/runoff situation. Cannot stand the thought of Landry or Kennedy getting in.

[soundchaser]

I mean at the end of the day it doesn't really matter if the EV resembles 2019. Yeah the White Liberal and African Americans are showing up, but all the JBE Whites who normally vote Republican in federal elections are probably going to vote for one of the Republican's rather than the Democrat. 

Right — at the end of the day, Landry is going to win in places like Jefferson Parish, which will pretty much settle things.

[soundchaser]

Any possibility Shawn Wilson doesn't make the runoff?

Not gonna happen. The Republican vote is almost always split enough to get a Dem into the top 2 and keep everyone under 50.

[soundchaser]

None of Orleans is in yet — feeling pretty confident this is going to a runoff.

[soundchaser]

None of Orleans is in yet — feeling pretty confident this is going to a runoff.

Will Landry win outright? Parish the thought.

No, but it’ll be closer than it should. Wilson has run a pretty poor campaign, and the establishment all coalesced behind Landry in a way I didn’t expect.

Keep the state’s librarians in your thoughts.

[soundchaser]

This state’s Democratic Party is probably in the worst shape it’s been…ever? Not sure what can be done to turn things around at this point. We’ve got absolutely no bench.

[soundchaser]

This state’s Democratic Party is probably in the worst shape it’s been…ever? Not sure what can be done to turn things around at this point. We’ve got absolutely no bench.

Why is your state party so much worse than other dem state parties at getting out the black vote?

Piss poor canvassing efforts, a serious lack of funding, a much more pro-life contingent of black voters than in other southern states. Probably more on top of that, but those feel like the big issues.

[soundchaser]

Landry just hit over 50% with 55% of the estimated vote.

Landry winning outright may be a serious possibility now.

Given where the remaining vote’s out, I still don’t see it. But it’s not *impossible* depending on turnout in Orleans.

[soundchaser]

^ Over half of the precincts in Orleans aren’t reporting E-Day vote yet. I trust Couvillon, and things are looking more ominous as the night goes on (although this was always a foregone conclusion), but I wouldn’t write anything in stone yet.

[soundchaser]

This is looking better and better for Landry, though don't count Wilson out as Orleans Parish still only has 39% of votes counted.

Also I have made my decision and I am endorsing Landry.

There wasn't a single Poll that had Landry even close what he has now. Most of them had him between 42-44 %.

Tonight is a turnout failure. Landry’s support isn’t as solid as it looks — we’re just looking at ~35% turnout.

[soundchaser]

I know I’m a broken record, but I still don’t think this race is totally over. (Although it’s clear it will be in a few weeks.) Need to see more of Orleans come in to know for sure.

[soundchaser]

Well, Couvillon has called it. Like I said, I trust him. Disappointing.

[soundchaser]

Louisiana really has gone over to the Dark Side. Doesn't matter if it's tonight or in a few weeks it's a Republican sweep by a massive margin.

Duh. It's one of the few states where pro-life polls ahead of Trump's 2020 margins. It will be one of the states that swings hard right in 2024 for sure.

Has anybody suggested yet that Trump’s inflated popular vote margin could come entirely out of LA?

[soundchaser]

I am genuinely shocked, when was the last time a candidate won outright??

Like I said: worst state the Louisiana Democrats have EVER been in.

[soundchaser]

Perhaps a dumb question, but was Shawn Wilson so awful?

Wilson himself was a tough sell — being Transportation secretary in a state with infrastructure this bad is something of a poisoned chalice — but his campaign was worse. I’m a registered Dem and didn’t get a SINGLE mailer or phone call even reminding me the election was today. I can’t imagine I’m alone in that.

[soundchaser]

First election in a while democrats didn’t over perform. Wow.

Riverwalk is right — if Dem overperformance is coming in large part from Dobbs, this is exactly the place that pattern would break.

[soundchaser]

First election in a while democrats didn’t over perform. Wow.

Riverwalk is right — if Dem overperformance is coming in large part from Dobbs, this is exactly the place that pattern would break.

Wonder if this will translate in the two elections coming up in a couple of weeks.

Virginia will be a better bellwether for 2024, I think.

[soundchaser]

Seeing some chatter on X that LSU having a home game tonight may have dampened dem and black turnout in EBR

That’s a 100+k people that potentially did not vote due to tailgating all day plus being at game tonight

Long-standing culture of early voting in LA so not buying this.

E-Day turnout WAS bad. Early voting turnout was…also bad! A failure on many counts.

[soundchaser]

itt: a lot of people being very wrong

Like I wasn't expecting an outright Landry win either but there was no reason to think this race was remotely competitive.

Is anyone here saying it was competitive? It just turned out worse than even the expectations.

[soundchaser]

Now, I haven't paid that much attention to this race, but did Wilson run heavily on repeoductive rights? If so, I'm not particularly surprised to see this result. If a national "yes" or "no" referendum were to take place whether to ban abortion or not, I would still expect the Deep South states and maybe the Mormon triangle to be holdouts for banning it.

I wouldn’t say “heavily,” but he was vocally pro-choice.

[soundchaser]

itt: a lot of people being very wrong

Like I wasn't expecting an outright Landry win either but there was no reason to think this race was remotely competitive.

Is anyone here saying it was competitive? It just turned out worse than even the expectations.

>60% of ratings for this were something other than safe R.

I voted Likely R AGES ago. Had I voted more recently, it would have been Safe. I think that's probably the case for a few folks.

[soundchaser]

If turnout really was 29% in Orleans Parish, that’s all the explanation you need for last night.

[soundchaser]

We got a few Lundy ads in Jefferson Parish as well -- to the point where I thought "huh, in another time, this guy might have had a shot."