Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Matty]

Multiple people now calling this for Landry.

an absolute embarrassment for the democratic party. The gop had 10 candidates, the dems only had 2.

In his concession speech, the leading dem should call out the state party by name and should also call out black political organizers in nola and BR for sitting on their asses.

[Birdish]

Cant wait for the Politico article on the implications this has for 2024.

[Birdish]

Perhaps a dumb question, but was Shawn Wilson so awful?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Perhaps a dumb question, but was Shawn Wilson so awful?

No, Louisiana is the type of place where you expect Democrats to underperform in a post-Dobbs environment.

[soundchaser]

Perhaps a dumb question, but was Shawn Wilson so awful?

Wilson himself was a tough sell — being Transportation secretary in a state with infrastructure this bad is something of a poisoned chalice — but his campaign was worse. I’m a registered Dem and didn’t get a SINGLE mailer or phone call even reminding me the election was today. I can’t imagine I’m alone in that.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

First election in a while democrats didn’t over perform. Wow.

[soundchaser]

First election in a while democrats didn’t over perform. Wow.

Riverwalk is right — if Dem overperformance is coming in large part from Dobbs, this is exactly the place that pattern would break.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

First election in a while democrats didn’t over perform. Wow.

Riverwalk is right — if Dem overperformance is coming in large part from Dobbs, this is exactly the place that pattern would break.

Wonder if this will translate in the two elections coming up in a couple of weeks.

[2016]

I am genuinely shocked, when was the last time a candidate won outright??

As mentioned it was Bobby Jindal in 2011.

[soundchaser]

First election in a while democrats didn’t over perform. Wow.

Riverwalk is right — if Dem overperformance is coming in large part from Dobbs, this is exactly the place that pattern would break.

Wonder if this will translate in the two elections coming up in a couple of weeks.

Virginia will be a better bellwether for 2024, I think.

[Matty]

First election in a while democrats didn’t over perform. Wow.

Riverwalk is right — if Dem overperformance is coming in large part from Dobbs, this is exactly the place that pattern would break.

Wonder if this will translate in the two elections coming up in a couple of weeks.

Not sure if this was about Dobbs or not, but black turnout was nuclear wasteland bad for dems tonight. Worse than 2010, 2014, etc

Tate reeves should be relieved

[Progressive Pessimist]

First election in a while democrats didn’t over perform. Wow.

Riverwalk is right — if Dem overperformance is coming in large part from Dobbs, this is exactly the place that pattern would break.

Wonder if this will translate in the two elections coming up in a couple of weeks.

Virginia will be a better bellwether for 2024, I think.

Who even knows anymore? 2021 results in the state didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Couple things before the Communist-MA gang comes in:

1) The LA Dems are in a horrible state, and their campaign was run extremely poorly, as soundchaser said.

2) Being Pro-Life polls well in Louisiana, even among Democrats. Because of this, the Dobbs issue worked against them if anything.

[2016]

First election in a while democrats didn’t over perform. Wow.

Riverwalk is right — if Dem overperformance is coming in large part from Dobbs, this is exactly the place that pattern would break.

riverwalk is never right! Someone that still insists that Debbie Mucarsel-Powell can beat Rick Scott shouldn't be taken seriously.

[Matty]

I really think the what happened was black turnout simply cratered due to an underfunded gotv campaign

Dems have no “supply” of high turnout college educated whites in the state that reliably show up

That’s all this was

[Mr. Smith]

Will this carry over to Cameron or not now, that is the question.

Or does KY defy Louisiana again as per tradition, with 2019 as an outlier, just as 2013 was a break for Virginia?

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1713396935187480960

[Birdish]

Will this carry over to Cameron or not now, that is the question.

Or does KY defy Louisiana again as per tradition, with 2019 as an outlier, just as 2013 was a break for Virginia?

Is it a question?

[Skill and Chance]

Will this carry over to Cameron or not now, that is the question.

Or does KY defy Louisiana again as per tradition, with 2019 as an outlier, just as 2013 was a break for Virginia?

I would be more worried about all those Biden +8ish districts in Southside VA given LA Dems are losing a Biden +8 HD near New Orleans right now.  Kentucky is a different dynamic entirely, more about persuasion of presidential R’s than turnout.

[Matty]

Seeing some chatter on X that LSU having a home game tonight may have dampened dem and black turnout in EBR

That’s a 100+k people that potentially did not vote due to tailgating all day plus being at game tonight

[Tekken_Guy]

Will this carry over to Cameron or not now, that is the question.

Or does KY defy Louisiana again as per tradition, with 2019 as an outlier, just as 2013 was a break for Virginia?

Kentucky isn’t a Deep South black belt state like Louisiana is, so the factors that worked in Landry’s favor won’t carry over to Cameron.

[Skill and Chance]

Seeing some chatter on X that LSU having a home game tonight may have dampened dem and black turnout in EBR

That’s a 100+k people that potentially did not vote due to tailgating all day plus being at game tonight

Long-standing culture of early voting in LA so not buying this.

[soundchaser]

Seeing some chatter on X that LSU having a home game tonight may have dampened dem and black turnout in EBR

That’s a 100+k people that potentially did not vote due to tailgating all day plus being at game tonight

Long-standing culture of early voting in LA so not buying this.

E-Day turnout WAS bad. Early voting turnout was…also bad! A failure on many counts.

[Birdish]

Will this carry over to Cameron or not now, that is the question.

Or does KY defy Louisiana again as per tradition, with 2019 as an outlier, just as 2013 was a break for Virginia?

I would be more worried about all those Biden +8ish districts in Southside VA given LA Dems are losing a Biden +8 HD near New Orleans right now.  Kentucky is a different dynamic entirely, more about persuasion of presidential R’s than turnout.

Respectfully, this is a "primary" on a saturday in October in a deep red state. It seems foolish to try and translate that to Virginia. Not to mention democrats are actively spending money there, as opposed to these races.

[2016]

Will this carry over to Cameron or not now, that is the question.

Or does KY defy Louisiana again as per tradition, with 2019 as an outlier, just as 2013 was a break for Virginia?

Kentucky isn’t a Deep South black belt state like Louisiana is, so the factors that worked in Landry’s favor won’t carry over to Cameron.

That's true Tekken but on paper Cameron is a better Candidate than Landry.