Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread
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  Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread
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Poll
Question: Rate the 2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election
#1
Safe R
 
#2
Likely R
 
#3
Lean R
 
#4
Tossup/tilt R
 
#5
Tossup/tilt D
 
#6
Lean D
 
#7
Likely D
 
#8
Safe D
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 170

Author Topic: Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread  (Read 23181 times)
Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« on: January 26, 2021, 03:05:20 PM »
« edited: February 14, 2022, 03:29:27 PM by Lone Star Politics »

First and foremost, John Bel Edwards is NOT eligible for re-election in 2023. So we're getting entirely new candidates to test out.

Big names for the democrats include Mitch Landrieu (former mayor of New Orleans and former Lt. governor), LaToya Cantrell (current mayor of New Orleans), and Cedric Richmond (current senior advisor to President Biden, as well as the current Director of Public Engagement, and former congressman from LA-02 which represented most of New Orleans and some urban parts of Baton Rouge (this district is currently vacant as well)).

Big names for the republicans include John Kennedy (current Louisiana senator), Jeff Landry (current Louisiana attorney general), Billy Nungesser (current Lt. governor), and Garret Graves (current congressman from LA-06 which represents most of Baton Rouge and its suburbs), among others that I'm too lazy to name; you can find them here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Louisiana_gubernatorial_election

So Louisiana is a weird state politically. On the federal level, it's as red as it can get. On the state level though, it's surprisingly a swing state. Part of this is because a lot of their state and local level democrats are more conservative/centrist leaning, including their current governor John Bel Edwards, who as of October 2020 had an approval rating of 56%. Also worth noting that there seems to be a pattern in Louisiana when it comes to the governor's party, as after an incumbent governor's term expires and they can't (or don't) run for re-election, the opposite party is elected. As far as recent history is concerned, this could probably be a republican win by default.

Any thoughts, concerns? I know it may be too early to start a Louisiana gubernatorial thread already, but let's hope to keep this thread going by their election. I or someone else may make a similar thread for Kentucky and Mississippi's elections in the same year if none already exist.

As for my gut prediction as of now for the nominees of both parties, I'm gonna guess it'll be Mitch Landrieu (D) vs Jeff Landry (R). We'll see how that holds up as we get closer.

My rating prediction: Safe R due to political partisanship, though dems nominating Landrieu could POTENTIALLY make it slightly closer.
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Continential
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« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2021, 03:12:21 PM »
« Edited: January 26, 2021, 03:24:37 PM by Ishan »

Landrieu will make it likely R, the rest safe R.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2021, 03:14:56 PM »

I honestly think Republicans are more likely to hold MD than Democrats are to hold LA.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2021, 03:16:52 PM »

Nungesser or Landry will probably win. But after that, who knows. Coalitions will likely change by the end of decade.
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bee33
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« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2021, 03:17:33 PM »

If Nungesser wants it, it's his.
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tosk
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« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2021, 07:45:46 PM »

I wouldn't be shocked if we got an R vs R election. Landry vs Nungesser, or Landry vs Kennedy seem likely.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2021, 07:53:15 PM »

It goes full Montana and yields a safe R open election.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #7 on: January 26, 2021, 08:07:33 PM »

I expect Landry will get in
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #8 on: January 26, 2021, 08:17:11 PM »

If Democrats win this race, the GOP party is dead and Biden is somehow Superman.
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EEllis02
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« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2021, 08:20:23 PM »

If Democrats win this race, the GOP party is dead.

Democrats would have to nominate either a terrible candidate or a complete nobody to lose this election. Though typically after two terms of one party (or one term and they retire), they're sick and tired of them and they vote for the opposite party. That's how we got Mike Foster (R) followed by Kathleen Blanco (D) followed by Bobby Jindal (R) followed by John Bel Edwards (D). Assuming the pattern continues, I'm gonna guess the next governor will be a republican, but Landrieu could make this a tighter race.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #10 on: January 26, 2021, 08:24:43 PM »

If Democrats win this race, the GOP party is dead.

Democrats would have to nominate either a terrible candidate or a complete nobody to lose this election. Though typically after two terms of one party (or one term and they retire), they're sick and tired of them and they vote for the opposite party. That's how we got Mike Foster (R) followed by Kathleen Blanco (D) followed by Bobby Jindal (R) followed by John Bel Edwards (D). Assuming the pattern continues, I'm gonna guess the next governor will be a republican, but Landrieu could make this a tighter race.
Democrats?
I think you meant to say Republicans.
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morgieb
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« Reply #11 on: January 26, 2021, 08:30:17 PM »

Likely R out of extreme caution. In practice, probably Safe R.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #12 on: January 27, 2021, 05:20:23 PM »

I’d like to see Jay Dardenne run here.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: January 27, 2021, 06:28:55 PM »

I honestly think Republicans are more likely to hold MD than Democrats are to hold LA.

I mean, I agree, but that's hardly saying anything, since I think LA is Safe R.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: January 27, 2021, 06:44:05 PM »

I honestly think Republicans are more likely to hold MD than Democrats are to hold LA.

Absolutely.  JBE is basically a one-man third party at this point, with no heir apparent.  Throw in a Dem president and Biden barely improving over HRC in Louisiana and this is as close to a lost cause as it gets. 
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Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #15 on: January 27, 2021, 07:20:30 PM »

I'd say the only thing that would make this safe D is if David Duke runs for governor again. Landrieu probably wins in a landslide and he probably wins Calcasieu and St Tammany parishes as well (which Edwin Edwards did against Duke in 1991).
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #16 on: January 27, 2021, 07:23:07 PM »

I'd say the only thing that would make this safe D is if David Duke runs for governor again. Landrieu probably wins in a landslide and he probably wins Calcasieu and St Tammany parishes as well (which Edwin Edwards did against Duke in 1991).

Even David Duke would win Louisiana with a Democrat in the Oval Office.
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If my soul was made of stone
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« Reply #17 on: January 27, 2021, 08:41:07 PM »

I'd say the only thing that would make this safe D is if David Duke runs for governor again. Landrieu probably wins in a landslide and he probably wins Calcasieu and St Tammany parishes as well (which Edwin Edwards did against Duke in 1991).

Even David Duke would win Louisiana with a Democrat in the Oval Office.

Nowadays the ad campaign would probably be "Vote for the Klansman: it's important (he's a PATRIOT and supports the 2A and STRONG BORDERS)"
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Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2021, 11:46:45 PM »
« Edited: January 28, 2021, 09:26:52 AM by Tucker/DeSantis 2024 »

I'd say the only thing that would make this safe D is if David Duke runs for governor again. Landrieu probably wins in a landslide and he probably wins Calcasieu and St Tammany parishes as well (which Edwin Edwards did against Duke in 1991).

Even David Duke would win Louisiana with a Democrat in the Oval Office.

Nowadays the ad campaign would probably be "Vote for the Klansman: it's important (he's a PATRIOT and supports the 2A and STRONG BORDERS)"

Realistically speaking though I have high doubts Duke would win the election, let alone the primaries. I doubt he even runs to be honest. I remember he ran for senate in 2016 and got 7th place in the primaries (5th place among republicans since it was a jungle primary, though he only got 58,000 votes compared to John Kennedy who got 1st place getting 482,000).
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GALeftist
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« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2021, 11:57:07 PM »

I'd say the only thing that would make this safe D is if David Duke runs for governor again. Landrieu probably wins in a landslide and he probably wins Calcasieu and St Tammany parishes as well (which Edwin Edwards did against Duke in 1991).

Even David Duke would win Louisiana with a Democrat in the Oval Office.

Nowadays the ad campaign would probably be "Vote for the Klansman: it's important (he's a PATRIOT and supports the 2A and STRONG BORDERS)"

Duke is still really hated in Louisiana and I think the Klan aspect would be too bitter a pill to swallow for a critical mass, but it would certainly be much closer than 91.
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Galeel
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« Reply #20 on: January 28, 2021, 12:08:30 AM »

The only way democrats win is if its somehow a D vs D runoff, so, essentially, it is Safe R.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #21 on: January 28, 2021, 10:15:32 AM »

Democrats should pray that it is a D v D runoff, so only run 2 candidates.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #22 on: January 28, 2021, 10:20:24 AM »

Likely R, if not Safe R.
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bee33
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« Reply #23 on: January 28, 2021, 10:59:02 AM »

I'd say the only thing that would make this safe D is if David Duke runs for governor again. Landrieu probably wins in a landslide and he probably wins Calcasieu and St Tammany parishes as well (which Edwin Edwards did against Duke in 1991).

Even David Duke would win Louisiana with a Democrat in the Oval Office.

Nowadays the ad campaign would probably be "Vote for the Klansman: it's important (he's a PATRIOT and supports the 2A and STRONG BORDERS)"

Duke is still really hated in Louisiana and I think the Klan aspect would be too bitter a pill to swallow for a critical mass, but it would certainly be much closer than 91.

David Vitter lost by double digits despite a Democrat as the president.

The only people Duke could maybe beat are Gary Landrieu or Bill Jefferson.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #24 on: January 28, 2021, 06:45:52 PM »

John Neely Kennedy will be the next governor imo.

I thinkhe retires fromhis senate seat in 2022 and gets replaced in the Senate by Jeff Landry.
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