AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[IceSpear]

Meanwhile, Jeff Flake is continuing to be amazingly unaware of his party's identity and is intent on going down in flames:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/19/jeff-flake-trump-arizona-243925?lo=ap_a1

Funniest part of that story is how Democrats seem to think Flake has a better chance against Sinema than Ward. I think just the opposite, though I'd give Ward a 20% chance at beating Sinema whereas with Flake I'd give him zero chance.

All the Trumpers that despise Flake will still vote for him in a heartbeat before they'd ever vote for a Democrat. His stances against Trump would also be more likely to gain him independent/D crossovers.

[IceSpear]

All the Trumpers that despise Flake will still vote for him in a heartbeat before they'd ever vote for a Democrat. His stances against Trump would also be more likely to gain him independent/D crossovers.

I mean, Flake barely won his first election. I'd say there is some room for a Democrat to win, especially if Flake loses his primary.

I agree. I'm just explaining why some people would see him as more electable than Ward. I think it's lean R with Flake, toss up with Ward.

Meanwhile, Jeff Flake is continuing to be amazingly unaware of his party's identity and is intent on going down in flames:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/19/jeff-flake-trump-arizona-243925?lo=ap_a1

Funniest part of that story is how Democrats seem to think Flake has a better chance against Sinema than Ward. I think just the opposite, though I'd give Ward a 20% chance at beating Sinema whereas with Flake I'd give him zero chance.

All the Trumpers that despise Flake will still vote for him in a heartbeat before they'd ever vote for a Democrat. His stances against Trump would also be more likely to gain him independent/D crossovers.

The two polls on this race (both from Republican firms) have disproven both points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_2018#Polling_3

 I think it's more likely those Ward backers would go independent or simply stay home. Look at Martha Roby's close call last year. That's what happens when you go against Dear Leader. And Democrats have no reason to vote for Flake whereas McCain he actually was mavericky and gave them occasional votes in the Senate.

Roby was an outlier though. Wasn't she running against a Trump supporting Dixiecrat? Most Republicans who heavily distanced themselves from Trump in 2016 still received support from the lion's share of Trump voters. Forget Alabama, look at Arizona itself where McCain was one of Trump's first targets. McCain also unendorsed him and criticized him multiple times. He then squashed Kirkpatrick like a bug (despite early polls showing vast discontent about him among the right and a tied race, sound familiar?) with almost every Trump voter + plenty of independent and crossover support.

Of course, McCain was a lot more formidable in other ways than Flake. I don't think he'd be a shoo in by any means if he won the primary, just that he'd be more likely to win than the Crazy Chemtrail Lady (who herself probably has close to even odds...ugh.)

[IceSpear]

I'd say Ward has no chance of winning the GE barring a massive scandal/implosion by Sinema while Flake has about a 30% chance of winning the GE if he makes it that far (although that'll likely drop further at this rate).

Is Ward really that bad? She just seems like a slightly crazier Joni Ernst to me.

We sometimes vote Democrat:

I vote Democrat for county auditor, coroner, and clerk. Sometimes bailiff too.

fite me irl

[IceSpear]

At this point I honestly think chemtrail Kelli Ward is a slight favorite to become the newest senator from Arizona

God fking help us all

You wildly, wildly underestimate Sinema and overestimate how much Arizonans like Ward.

Nobody said they had to like Ward. How much did Arizonans like Trump?

[IceSpear]

BREAKING: Flake is OUT.

So Jeffrey lied to us when he said he didn't care if it cost him electorally

He knew it would cost him electorally. Probably not to the degree of trailing Chemtrail Kelli by 30 points though.

[IceSpear]

But remember everyone. Like RINO Tom tells us, most Republicans are not like Trump! He was just a one off thing! It's just a coincidence that any Republican who criticizes Trump becomes toxic and is cast out of the party! Really!

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[IceSpear]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

[IceSpear]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

Not here. You have to believe me when I tell you that the great majority of Arizonans f**king loathe Kelli Ward. Yes, we need to take her seriously, but Ward is less an Ernst and more an O'Donnell.

Would O'Donnell even have lost in Iowa or Arizona? She performed at generic R levels in Delaware. The only reason it was such a big deal was because she defeated the only Republican who COULD win the state in the primary.

[IceSpear]

Dems really shouldn't underestimate Ward. If Joni Ernst and Donald Trump can win, then an Ernst/Trump lovechild like Ward can win too.

Not here. You have to believe me when I tell you that the great majority of Arizonans f**king loathe Kelli Ward. Yes, we need to take her seriously, but Ward is less an Ernst and more an O'Donnell.

Would O'Donnell even have lost in Iowa or Arizona? She performed at generic R levels in Delaware. The only reason it was such a big deal was because she defeated the only Republican who COULD win the state in the primary.

Maybe not in 2010 (and that's a BIG maybe), but in 2018? Absolutely. What frustrates me about this line of argument is your apparent disregard for just how far to the left Arizona has shifted after 2016. I know that a person would have to live here to really appreciate it, but seriously, nobody seems to believe me when I tell them that Arizona is changing, and quickly. We're still in the red/Atlas blue, sure, but not nearly as much as you seem to think we are, and you don't seem to process at all that 2018 is most likely going to be at least a moderate wave year.

I don't doubt that the state is changing. That's why I think the race is a toss up, not lean R or higher. Dems seem to be spiking the football in this thread very prematurely though. It's a common trend.

[IceSpear]

In all likelihood, whether this is good or bad for the GOP, or DeWit runs, I think this seat will go to Sinema. It's going to be an anti-Trump midterm.

You have no way of knowing what the sentiment will be a year from now. Too many variables. Sinema is the strongest Dem candidate in years, of course, but even now, she was, with the little data we have, running in a statistical tie with WARD.

A variable that won't change: An open seat in a swing state during a midterm with an unpopular incumbent.

A variable that can change: the incumbent's popularity. Not that I think Trump will become significantly more popular, but it's possible. He got a significant bump just from hurricanes. A year is a lifetime in politics. A variable that can change: People who dislike Trump and/or Ward somehow rationalizing that Sinema is worse. We just saw this story less than a year ago.

[IceSpear]

Would you mind defining your terms? The Trump effects could refer to any number of things, and I have yet to hear of something called the Black Swan effect.

"Trump has NO chance to..." then he ends up doing it.

"Trump has NO chance to win the GOP nomination" then he ends up winning it.

"Trump has NO chance to win 270 electoral votes" then he ends up doing that.

etc. etc.

"Trump will not make it to the first GOP debate"

"Trump will not make it to Iowa"

"This is the beginning of the end for Trump"

"Trump will not get 1,237 delegates"

"Trump will not win the nomination by May the math is just not there"

"Trump will not win the Wisconsin recount" (ends up IMPROVING his margin)

"Trump will get a ton of faithless electors" (Clinton ended up getting more and got the most in 100 years)

The "Trump effect" in essence is the fact he's always right and you're always wrong.

As much as I hate to agree, you're absolutely right on this. Dems seem to be unable or unwilling to learn that their wishful thinking is not always going to manifest into reality. Dems were crushed by 2014, crushed by 2016, crushed by the loss of Ossoff and Quist, and will be crushed again by the loss of Jones if they don't stop kidding themselves.

With that said, you're being just as bad. Trump is not an invincible titan. He lost the popular vote by a significant margin and only won the three decisive states by <1%. He is definitely beatable in 2020.

[IceSpear]

ahugecat is filling the role EnglishPete and Seriously? have left behind. He is a righteous Christian warrior fighting against the tyranny of the left.

lol, I forgot about Seriously? Whatever happened to him?

[IceSpear]

If McSally or DeWit runs, Dems are probably in a slightly worse position than they were here before Flake's retirement. They're obviously both stronger candidates than Flake/Ward, though they're not guaranteed to get through the primary.

[IceSpear]

Flake running as an independent might actually help Republicans, just as hypothetical polls showed Lugar/Castle independent runs helping Mourdock/O'Donnell, and how an independent Crist run helped Rubio. His approval with Republicans was already toxic, and would only fall even lower once he announced an independent candidacy.

[IceSpear]

Flake running as an independent might actually help Republicans, just as hypothetical polls showed Lugar/Castle independent runs helping Mourdock/O'Donnell, and how an independent Crist run helped Rubio. His approval with Republicans was already toxic, and would only fall even lower once he announced an independent candidacy.

Apparently anything that happens helps Ward...

Nah, Flake retiring hurt her odds of winning the primary significantly. But in terms of the general, Dems were basically at their peak with a guaranteed nasty, bitter, and expensive Flake/Ward primary and a highly probable Ward win. Any major variable changing is going to have more upside than downside for the GOP as a whole considering they were already pretty much at rock bottom before. And the idea that a Flake independent run would attract Republicans is silly. AZ Republicans, much like Republicans overall, love Trump and despise Flake. That's why he retired to begin with!

[IceSpear]

Devil's Advocate on the McSally decision:

Arizona has a PVI 4% more Republican than her district. If a wave is building maybe her chances at the former aren't that much worse than staying in her seat. Secondly, if the wave is real maybe she loses either way but being a losing senate candidate sets her up better for a comeback than being a losing House candidate.

Yeah, that's the same reason I think it's probably smarter for Comstock to run for Senate.

[IceSpear]

Joe Arpaio for Senate?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/07/arpaio-seriously-seriously-seriously-considering-senate-run.html

If this was Alabama, it'd be safe R with him as the nominee, it'd could too much for Arizona.

Maybe the first time I've ever empty quoted jfern, lol.

[IceSpear]

All McSally had to do to get a Senate seat was literally nothing. Congrats, McSally.

[IceSpear]

This has got to be one of the worst campaign roll outs in the history of the United States Senate.

https://twitter.com/dannowicki/status/944350401133821952

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/944238498197815296

https://twitter.com/BenRay/status/944238464337371136

Mcconnell praising McNally will be great for Kelli Ward, today was a good day for her.


Also to update the race on the democratic side, the justice democrats endorsed Deedra Aboud, an endorsement that will go absolutely nowhere.

Yeah. Democrats need to brand Hawley, McSally, Scott (if he's stupid enough to run), and Cramer as the McConnell-backed candidate. McConnell is literally polling in the teens nationwide.

Wonder how McConnell feels right now, having become the new Nancy Pelosi.

I don't think Pelosi was ever in the teens actually, lol.