AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Oryxslayer]

BREAKING NEWS developed while we were asleep

McSally will run
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=268358.725;num_replies=739

This is obviously a tough decision for her as her seat in my opinion is now tilt D, on top of that she will receive HEAVY opposition from conservative groups(ever since Club4Growth came out opposing her there has been a handful of other orgs stating they will work to oppose her...Including Citizens United).

All eyes on Salmon

The link just goes to the reply page for this topic, and Google doesn't reveal any news articles on this. Is this a joke?

Its not on her twitter and she is not on Wikipedia as a committed candidate. So what is going on with this post Webnicz?

[Webnicz]

BREAKING NEWS developed while we were asleep

McSally will run
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=268358.725;num_replies=739

This is obviously a tough decision for her as her seat in my opinion is now tilt D, on top of that she will receive HEAVY opposition from conservative groups(ever since Club4Growth came out opposing her there has been a handful of other orgs stating they will work to oppose her...Including Citizens United).

All eyes on Salmon

The link just goes to the reply page for this topic, and Google doesn't reveal any news articles on this. Is this a joke?

Its not on her twitter and she is not on Wikipedia as a committed candidate. So what is going on with this post Webnicz?

I apologize!!!! heres another link

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2017/11/07/martha-mcsally-announces-senate-run-flake-seat-us-house-colleagues/802548001/

[The Other Castro]

Oooo that would be surprising...and probably a bad move on her part. The McCain seat could be hers, but going for Flake's is risky.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, Sinema is going to win this seat.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Well McSally's career is over.

[Heisenberg]

All it says is she's telling her colleagues that she'll run for Senate. What if she's referring to McCain's seat (whenever he croaks and the Special is called)?

[Webnicz]

All it says is she's telling her colleagues that she'll run for Senate. What if she's referring to McCain's seat (whenever he croaks and the Special is called)?

I agree with this skepticism. I read somewhere that she met with McCain specifically in regards to his seat. Local media is stating that she's running for Flake's. I don't believe Mcsally can be this bad at making calculations. She can't dislike the house enough(as reported) to the point where she is ok with Ann Kirkpatrick winning her seat. I'd imagine Paul Ryan lobbied her harder to stay.

[Gustaf]

Devil's Advocate on the McSally decision:

Arizona has a PVI 4% more Republican than her district. If a wave is building maybe her chances at the former aren't that much worse than staying in her seat. Secondly, if the wave is real maybe she loses either way but being a losing senate candidate sets her up better for a comeback than being a losing House candidate.

[IceSpear]

Devil's Advocate on the McSally decision:

Arizona has a PVI 4% more Republican than her district. If a wave is building maybe her chances at the former aren't that much worse than staying in her seat. Secondly, if the wave is real maybe she loses either way but being a losing senate candidate sets her up better for a comeback than being a losing House candidate.

Yeah, that's the same reason I think it's probably smarter for Comstock to run for Senate.

[The Other Castro]

Paul Gosar now back to considering a run for Senate.

Bridget Bowman‏ @bridgetbhc
Gosar tells reporters he’s a considering Senate run. On McSally, he said, “She had to make a decision...good for her.” #AZSen @rollcall
1:43 PM - 7 Nov 2017

https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/927969686431649798

[Heisenberg]

Paul Gosar now back to considering a run for Senate.

Bridget Bowman‏ @bridgetbhc
Gosar tells reporters he’s a considering Senate run. On McSally, he said, “She had to make a decision...good for her.” #AZSen @rollcall
1:43 PM - 7 Nov 2017

https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/927969686431649798

I hope he runs for Flake's seat, and then Kelli Ward runs for AZ-04. She fits that district like a glove.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

All of these Republicans jumping on the primary train is just going to help Sinema. As we have seen from the reports, she is out raising frontunner, Kelli Ward by miles and I would imagine she would out raise McSally in the primary. The primary is going to drain Ward's resources.
Sinema's biggest challenge for the nomination is Deedra Abboud and in a poll taken last month she only garnered 16% to Sinema's 61%. She's going to slide easily to the nomination. Whoever wins for the Republicans will be very damaged and facing a strong and steady Democrat.

[Cactus Jack]

McSally doesn't stand a chance in Hell. At this point, Ward's coalition of crazies is way too solid to surmount in a primary, especially if Matt Salmon also enters the race. Even if pigs fly and McSally does somehow manage to triumph over Ward, Sinema is going to utterly shellack her for vacillating on just about every major issue to come up during Trump's administration.

[Webnicz]

UPDATE: DEWITT IS OUT (as already presumed)

Trump has nominated him to be the Financial Officer of NASA. Interesting, because it was stated by DeWitt that he wanted to stay in Arizona and that is why he did not want to run for AZSEN.

https://twitter.com/dannowicki/status/936043097904914432

Sounds good for Ward, considering DeWitt was the other "pre-trump/anti establishment" candidate

[tmthforu94]

Joe Arpaio for Senate?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/07/arpaio-seriously-seriously-seriously-considering-senate-run.html

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Joe Arpaio for Senate?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/07/arpaio-seriously-seriously-seriously-considering-senate-run.html

If this was Alabama, it'd be safe R with him as the nominee, it'd could too much for Arizona.

[junior chįmp]

Joe Arpaio for Senate?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/07/arpaio-seriously-seriously-seriously-considering-senate-run.html

Oh sweet Jesus please....imagine the GOP primary: Joe Arapio, chemitrails Kelli, and other assorted clowns of the low IQ variety

[IceSpear]

Joe Arpaio for Senate?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/07/arpaio-seriously-seriously-seriously-considering-senate-run.html

If this was Alabama, it'd be safe R with him as the nominee, it'd could too much for Arizona.

Maybe the first time I've ever empty quoted jfern, lol.

[swf541]

Joe Arpaio for Senate?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/07/arpaio-seriously-seriously-seriously-considering-senate-run.html

If this was Alabama, it'd be safe R with him as the nominee, it'd could too much for Arizona.

Maybe the first time I've ever empty quoted jfern, lol.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Arpaio is the GOP trying to lose this seat.

[junior chįmp]

Joe Arpaio for Senate?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/07/arpaio-seriously-seriously-seriously-considering-senate-run.html

Oh sweet Jesus please....imagine the GOP primary: Joe Arapio, chemitrails Kelli, and other assorted clowns of the low IQ variety

Please Lord, please let him run. This race would become likely D off the bat, if not safe D. Dude got BTFO in a county that has 60% of the state's population by 13 points lmao

Run Joe Run! It's the special Olympics and it's you vs Chemitrails Kelli!

[BuckeyeNut]

Arpaio and Kelli running could split the Crazy Caucus and allow a much more competent candidate through to the general. Plus, have we all forgotten those who rooted for Trump because he would be the easiest for Clinton to take out? I do not wish for a second there is a world where there is any chance Arpaio wins a Senate general election. I hope he stays out.

[Webnicz]

Good morning! Heres my local scoop regarding this uptick in Arpaio talk

Our local political insiders have completely written off Arpaio for this seat, they did so a long time ago.

He does this with every statewide election so he can raise money. he likely needs to pay off court fees.

this story was written a month ago
https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2017/11/09/arpaio-says-he-may-run-fo-asking-cash-so-he-can-consider-running-wink-wink-flakes-senate-sea/848743001/

All the national news outlets have reported on this "strong consideration" but the local media here hasn't even mentioned it because we are well aware of his games. I expect him to do this until he raises his goal amount of money and say after "discussing with family" he has decided not to run, and endorse Kelli Ward

[Pollster]

This election could be a bloodbath for the AZ GOP, Ward and Ducey (who I understand is not popular) could depress GOP turnout immensely in an already unfavorable environment, the down-ticket effects in the State House and Senate (all seats up for reelection in both chambers) and the lower-level state offices could wreck the party's stature in the state for a generation.

[Brittain33]

McSally being craven and heartless:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2017/12/19/roberts-martha-mcsally-running-flakes-senate-seat-mccains/963501001/

This could backfire bigly. If not because just ceding the nomination for the Flake seat to KKKelli Ward would probably tank Republican chances in both seats.

With McCain heading home to AZ this month, McSally's doing what she needs to do, tbh.