Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Pres Mike]

Hood won 46.8% in 2019. In theory, 3-4 point swing statewide could win the election for Presley

[Zedonathin2020]

It can’t be….

[Schiff for Senate]

Three things to watch for as tomorrow's results come in:

• Black turnout, in particular Hinds County - Presley needs this to come through massively, say with Hinds at 87-90% of the combined Rankin and Madison turnout, not like 80% or less, and also good numbers in the Delta
• Turnout of the "flag people" - A lot of them feel like Reeves betrayed them by allowing the flag to change in the George Floyd aftermath. This will be harder to recognize, but if turnout looks low in George and Greene Counties (those are very small counties, but they're the only two that voted against the new flag), it might be a sign that the flag hopium may be real.
• Margin in suburban Madison, Rankin, and DeSoto Counties - Hood did well in all 3 of these, even winning Madison, but Presley is going to have to do even better to have a real shot.

I think Presley needs to hit on all 3 of these to win, or maybe do really well on 2 of them and have the third be a wash.

With 76% in, Presley has 40% of the vote in Desoto. Hood got 37%. Good or bad sign?

I just checked out DeSoto and it’s scaring me. Most of the vote is in and Reeves is up pretty big. He’s underperforming Trump by single digits. Yes it’s a suburban county where Biden 2029 was quite an over performance but tbh Im nonetheless concerned at what this bodes for the statewide.

As for the remaining 56% of the vote it will obviously be solid Democratic because Hinds, for obvious reasons, has not yet begun reporting. Nonetheless there’s a 15 point, 56,000 vote deficit, that I doubt Presley will be able to overcome unless turnout in the right places (aka Jackson, the Delta) rlly exceeds expectations.

[gespb19]

Reeves won Lafayette. That'll do it.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722087782917517726

[GALeftist]

College students

[Pres Mike]

Still not impossible for Reeves to be under 50

[Schiff for Senate]

Much as I would love for him to Presley isn’t winning 

Ive looked at a few counties where all the votes are in like Benton and Attala and the over performance is consistently at around 10 points or less. Needless to say the over performance in these rural areas needs to be 15-20 or more for him to win.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722089425000124711

[Pres Mike]

I'm afraid it'll be like Democrats house races nationwide in 2022. Over perform everywhere but lose in places you are supposed to win (New York) thus costing you victory

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722093823923228802

[Schiff for Senate]

Looks like there’ll very possibly be a Biden-Reeves county, too: Marshall, on the northern border.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722087782917517726

Popping in on a disappointing election night to say that this really doesn't surprise me.  Compared to 2019, there's much more of an insider-outsider divide in this race (as well as Presley's focus on the "good ol' boy system".  He might as well be describing Oxford and Ole Miss.

I went to a football game in Oxford a couple weeks ago and saw tons of Ole Miss students wearing Tate Reeves stickers (and no Brandon Presley ones).

[Pres Mike]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722087782917517726

Popping in on a disappointing election night to say that this really doesn't surprise me.  Compared to 2019, there's much more of an insider-outsider divide in this race (as well as Presley's focus on the "good ol' boy system".  He might as well be describing Oxford and Ole Miss.

I went to a football game in Oxford a couple weeks ago and saw tons of Ole Miss students wearing Tate Reeves stickers (and no Brandon Presley ones).

Thats something I've noticed about small towns in the south. Folks will complain all day about THEIR corrupt leaders. But when an outsider complains about the town's corrupt leaders...

[Pres Mike]

So did they just stop reporting? The total hasn't changed in several counties over the last hour

[Mr. Smith]

The map is looking more and more like CHS v. Espy, with CHS herself an underperformer too.

[philly09]

Reeve's lead has narrowed to 53,000 votes. Presley up to 45.3 to Reeve's 53.3

[Pres Mike]

Reeve's lead has narrowed to 53,000 votes. Presley up to 45.3 to Reeve's 53.3

Any hope?

[philly09]

Reeve's lead has narrowed to 53,000 votes. Presley up to 45.3 to Reeve's 53.3

Any hope?

Hinds is has only reported 34.4% of the vote.

[Pres Mike]

Reeve's lead has narrowed to 53,000 votes. Presley up to 45.3 to Reeve's 53.3

Any hope?

Hinds is has only reported 34.4% of the vote.

Yet Dave Wasserman has called it

[Matty]

Dave wasserman is on Twitter saying turnout was very poor across the board

I thought the dems spent heavily here to boost turnout

[philly09]

Marshall County has flipped back to Presley.

[Matty]

Ddhq calls for reeves.

Not sure why they waited so long

[philly09]

Ddhq calls for reeves.

Not sure why they waited so long

The slim chance it would go to a runoff.

[Matty]

This result should be a big positive for dems

They raised their “ceiling” in this state