Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Red Velvet]

These are the expat voting results I've found so far.

Japan
Fujimori 92-8

Australia
Fujimori 82-18

New Zealand
Fujimori 74-26

Madrid, Spain
Fujimori 61-39

Paris, France
Fujimori 57-43

Norway
Castillo 56-44

Would like to see the US results

I kinda expect it to be similar to Japan in Miami lmao. You know exactly the type of Latin Americans who immigrate to Florida, the most possible right-wing types you can get in the region.

[Red Velvet]

This could go anywhere, just like 2016. Impressive.

Didn’t the 1st round quick count underestimate Castillo a little bit, or I’m wrong? Rooting that there’s at least a minimal undercount of the Rural vote.

[Red Velvet]

Ipsos exit poll:

https://twitter.com/ipsosperu/status/1381397005633794060

Well, apparently they underestimated both Castillo and Fujimori so no way to tell for sure. It ended up 19% and 14% respectively.

But the fact they overrated De Soto could be evidence they tend to favor Lima/urban vote a bit? That’s where I’m putting my hopes on for now. But really, there’s no way to know until everything is counted.

[Red Velvet]

2016 was a center-right PPK vs far-right Fujimori so naturally Lima didn’t favor Keiko in high numbers like this year. While at the same time, Keiko performed much better in rural areas that dislike moderates. 2021 is more like 2011 indeed in terms of vote divide.

Big cities tend to favor centrists leaning to the right while rural areas populists regardless of their side. But if you put an unapologetic leftist then big cities will immediately shift for the far-right option while rural areas will support the leftist.

[Red Velvet]

Difference will probably diminish as more of the rural vote gets counted, the question is how much?

[Red Velvet]

Canada

Fujimori 76,5%
Castillo 23,5%

Mexico

Fujimori 73,3%
Castillo 26,7%

Colombia

Fujimori 72,5%
Castillo 27,5%

Bolivia

Fujimori 64,7%
Castillo 35,3%

Brazil (25% counted)

Fujimori 55,4%
Castillo 44,6%

[Red Velvet]

Difference will probably diminish as more of the rural vote gets counted, the question is how much?

The real takeaway from my perspective is a 6.3% abstention rate, whereas every poll - even the Ipsos exit - had that over 10%. Unless the pollsters were including metaphorical couch-sitters than that's a big difference.

If true we might be heading for a result that diverges from every data point so far...which might be in Keiko's favor given the composition of the round 1 electorate.

Based on ONPE, Lima is 51% counted while Castillo areas are 30% counted.

So the difference will diminish to close the gap. The question is, will it be enough? There’s still plenty of vote to be counted as it’s 43% overall now.

If I had to guess, IPSOS got it perfectly and whoever wins will do it with just over 50%.

[Red Velvet]

I think Castillo has this because in the most remote areas, he's pulling well over 90% and it's pretty evident that there are lots of remote villages where 0 votes have been counted where he's set to win 95% of the vote or more.

Right, but don’t forget Lima still has tons of votes to be counted, even if proportionally they are a bit ahead of the count in comparison with the whole country (51% Lima, 43% country)

It’s too early to tell. I don’t feel comfortable making predictions. It could end up really close.

[Red Velvet]

I think Castillo has this because in the most remote areas, he's pulling well over 90% and it's pretty evident that there are lots of remote villages where 0 votes have been counted where he's set to win 95% of the vote or more.

Right, but don’t forget Lima still has tons of votes to be counted, even if proportionally they are a bit ahead of the count in comparison with the whole country (51% Lima, 43% country)

It’s too early to tell. I don’t feel comfortable making predictions. It could end up really close.

Yeah but even in Lima the areas with the highest % of vote counted are parts where Fujimori is supposed to do well (Miraflores with 73.7% of vote counted, San Isidro with 55%, San Borja with 57%, Surquillo with 81%, etc.). I'm pretty optimist regarding Castillo's chances.

True but not sure it will be enough, 56% counted now (up from 43%) and the gap closed a bit:

Fujimori 52,4% (-0,5%)
Castillo 47,5% (+0,5%)

Assuming every new 10% counted diminishes Keiko lead by 0,5% this would end with Fujimori 50,4% vs Castillo 49,6%

I know once Lima is all counted Castillo will probably gain more (for now it’s 68% Lima). That’s why I think the final divide will be very close to 50/50, regardless of who wins.

[Red Velvet]

True but not sure it will be enough, 56% counted now (up from 43%) and the gap closed a bit:

Fujimori 52,4% (-0,5%)
Castillo 47,5% (+0,5%)

Assuming every new 10% counted diminishes Keiko lead by 0,5% this would end with Fujimori 50,4% vs Castillo 49,6%

I know once Lima is all counted Castillo will probably gain more (for now it’s 68% Lima). That’s why I think the final divide will be very close to 50/50, regardless of who wins.

61% (63% of the nation, 10% expats)

52.4% (49.15%) Fujimori

47.6% (44.6%) Castillo

Yeah, I don’t think the gap will reduce enough in order for Castillo to win.

It will probably be something like Fujimori 50,8% vs Castillo 49,2% when all is said and done.

[Red Velvet]

I do think it’s over.

In the last 20% Castillo will close the gap because Lima will be done but it won’t be enough. It will be closer to 51/49 in favor of Keiko than 50/50 after the rural vote is counted.

[Red Velvet]

I wouldn't say it's over...yet, but it is clearly much harder to imagine a victory path for Castillo than it was three hours ago.

He would need to diminish the gap at least 0,1% each 1% that is counted considering it’s now 52/48 at 80%. Which sounds the most optimistic scenario.

I think a bit over 50% without the foreign votes is the best he could reach and even then there is a bunch of these to be counted... Something like 49,5% sounds more realistic. I think he will at least reach the 49% mark.

[Red Velvet]

80,7% overall (83,5% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 51,5%
Pedro Castillo 48,5%

Castillo reducing the gap in the margins he needs to (at least 0,1% every new 1% counted) but there will still be the foreign votes in the end... If he keeps reducing the margin in the current speed it could end close to 50/50.

[Red Velvet]

80,7% overall (83,5% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 51,5%
Pedro Castillo 48,5%

Castillo reducing the gap in the margins he needs to (at least 0,1% every new 1% counted) but there will still be the foreign votes in the end... If he keeps reducing the margin in the current speed it could end close to 50/50.

Puno and quite a few other Castillo areas is now ahead of the national count so it may be deceptive...

Keiko don’t have much areas though. Some heavy Castillo areas like Cusco still behind.

What I think it will be decisive is Ica (only 43% counted) but that region isn’t heavily leaning to either of them, currently 53/47 to Keiko. So it probably won’t change much but it will slow down Castillo growth trend in the very end considering how divided it is, which will be decisive since it could end 50/50.

So I do think Keiko wins with something around 50,4-50,8. But it depends on how much Castillo grows in the next votes. If he starts diminishing 0,15% every new 1% then he would win but so far it’s closer to 0,1%

[Red Velvet]

Lima is practically done with 98,3% counted. That’s what’s more important to notice because now there is no major counterbalance to all the rural vote coming in.

[Red Velvet]

Amazing turnaround. He diminished the gap in 0,2% with just 1% more counted.

All the rural vote being counted while Lima is done is really having a big effect. Castillo is having 82% in Cusco.

[Red Velvet]

Castillo diminished the gap in 0,2% again with only 1% more counted... If this trend is kept then he will win regardless of the foreign vote.

Question is how much longer he can maintain this trend. I’ve never seen a recovery like this in the global elections before, if he manages to pull it off. As some people mentioned, Ica region will probably be the last to be counted and that is more divided so the trend won’t last until the end of the count.

[Red Velvet]

This is on the trend to end 50,2% for Castillo without the foreign votes, if no surprises happen. Keiko wins on the photo finish?

[Red Velvet]

I think Castillo will be at 50.4 of the domestic vote when it's all counted. Then that may give us a 50-50 result when the foreign vote comes in. All in all, this is 2016 all over again and I'm just hoping Keiko loses by an even narrower margin.

I’m not sure Castillo will keep the same large growth trend until the very end. Most of what he needs is in Cusco and that’s already 81% in, even if he’ll probably still make some good gains. I think he will keep growing more modestly.

I am guessing he wins in Peru by a small margin but loses overall because of all the US vote still to come in.

[Red Velvet]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

[Red Velvet]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

Yeah, the country as a whole outside Florida I expect to be around 70-30 but Miami probably has a ton of vote and that will be closer to 91-9

[Red Velvet]

The political symbolism if Miami, Florida crowns Keiko Fujimori the new president of Peru lmao. Even if I’m rooting for Castillo against Fujimori, the left reaction to this would be a spectacle of its own.

[Red Velvet]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

I'm starting to believe it's becoming too little too late for Fujimori. Castillo's margins in the ares there are tons of ballots to count are 80%+ or 70%+. And in Loreto, Fujimori lead is very, very slowly shrinking, and she needs like 70%+ or more of the remaining ballots there to catch up. I don't think the overseas vote will do it for her. We'll see.

No, I totally agree, my swing o meter has been on Castillo since like 2am, I just feel so bad for all the fujimori stans who went to bed and still have no idea what’s about to happen. A lot of them even think there’s 800k expat votes? Lol no.

Don't feel bad for the Fujimori supporters. Both Castillo and Fujimori are awful, awful candidates and if there's anyone we should be sorry for, is the whole population of Peru. I don't think they deserve this and what is probably in store for them.

They chose the neo-liberal American shill and that didn't work out for them, either.  The extreme margins of the spectrum are kind of all that's left for them at this point. It's an incredibly strange country politically.

More than a weird country, is a place that is still suffering from the political consequences of the terrible events of the 80s and 90s. At least if Keiko loses they could bury Fujimorism for good, is a cancer.

Can they really? Keiko never accepted her 2016 narrow defeat and tried to sabotage the government. If she loses this, in what looks to be an even closer vote, I don’t think she will just be okay with it.

Unless she really goes to jail but you can never be 100% sure about these things.

[Red Velvet]

All count is now Fujimori 50,08% vs Castillo 49,92% (93,11% counted)

Peru only: Fujimori 50,03% vs Castillo 49,97% (96,28% counted)

[Red Velvet]

It’s literally 50/50 in Peru only right now. Castillo will surpass Keiko Fujimori in the next update.

All votes (93,31% counted): Fujimori 50,05% vs Castillo 49,95%