Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's worth mentioning that the 2016 election was not polarized between poor rural areas and middle class urban areas in a meaningful way. Also, given that the old Fujimori base among poors in parts of Peru seems to no longer exist, there's every reason to think this election will be far more polarized than 2011 was.

Why is it that the old Fujimori poors rural base seems to no longer exist?

[Stuart98]

Ipsos' quick count has Castillo +0.4. Fingers crossed...

[buritobr]

The geography of the vote of the 2011 and 2021 elections is very lookalike. Olanta Humalla was also a left-wing populist, a good fit for poor rural areas
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_generales_de_Per%C3%BA_de_2011

The geography was different in 2016, because PPK was a center-right candidate

[Red Velvet]

This could go anywhere, just like 2016. Impressive.

Didn’t the 1st round quick count underestimate Castillo a little bit, or I’m wrong? Rooting that there’s at least a minimal undercount of the Rural vote.

[Red Velvet]

Ipsos exit poll:

https://twitter.com/ipsosperu/status/1381397005633794060

Well, apparently they underestimated both Castillo and Fujimori so no way to tell for sure. It ended up 19% and 14% respectively.

But the fact they overrated De Soto could be evidence they tend to favor Lima/urban vote a bit? That’s where I’m putting my hopes on for now. But really, there’s no way to know until everything is counted.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

It's worth mentioning that the 2016 election was not polarized between poor rural areas and middle class urban areas in a meaningful way. Also, given that the old Fujimori base among poors in parts of Peru seems to no longer exist, there's every reason to think this election will be far more polarized than 2011 was.

Why is it that the old Fujimori poors rural base seems to no longer exist?

As Buritobr pointed out this election is more comparable to 2011 than 2016, and if the exit poll's geography is correct then Fujimori's rural support hasn't gone anywhere. If anything she's doing slightly better in that respect since she managed to win Ucayali. The thing is that poor Fujimorists are disproportionately concentrated in Greater Lima, the Northwest and to a lesser extent the Amazon.

Also with respect to the argument about Arequipa, Fujimori was never going to do well there even in the event of a win. De Soto did disproportionately well there but it's worth noting that he's actually from Arequipa and that actually matters in Peru (just look at Acuna in La Libertad). Those votes aren't just going to all transfer to Fujimori even if she has De Soto's endorsement.

I still think like Castillo is more likely to be underpolled than Fujimori but I guess we'll see

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Canal Sur is anything to go by, the ONPE chief is speaking right now.

[skbl17]

First report from ONPE (42.03% of polling stations counted):

- Fujimori: 52.9%
- Castillo: 47.1%

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

OPNE quick count shows Fujimori with nearly 53% of the vote - very cool, Peru is going to die now lol.

Edit: as it turns out, the Ipsos is a quick count and these are just initial results which are extremely biased.

[Sestak]

I think this should be underrepresenting rurals which report later, so - might actually be fine (or even good) for Castillo?

[Red Velvet]

2016 was a center-right PPK vs far-right Fujimori so naturally Lima didn’t favor Keiko in high numbers like this year. While at the same time, Keiko performed much better in rural areas that dislike moderates. 2021 is more like 2011 indeed in terms of vote divide.

Big cities tend to favor centrists leaning to the right while rural areas populists regardless of their side. But if you put an unapologetic leftist then big cities will immediately shift for the far-right option while rural areas will support the leftist.

[seb_pard]

Keiko with 88% support in San Isidro lol

[buritobr]

After 42% of the precints proceeded

Keiko Fujimori 52.9%, Pedro Castillo 47.1%

https://elcomercio.pe/politica/elecciones/resultados-onpe-elecciones-peru-2021-cifras-oficiales-en-todo-el-peru-de-segunda-vuelta-de-las-elecciones-generales-2021-jne-pedro-castillo-keiko-fujimori-nuevo-presidente-resultados-oficiales-ganadores-en-lima-callao-y-ciudades-regiones-boca-de-urna-conteo-rapido-peru-libre-fuerza-popular-noticia/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Keiko with 88% support in San Isidro lol

Likewise with 87% Castillo in Puno and 88% in Huancavelica.

[skbl17]

The official ONPE results page is now available.

[Red Velvet]

Difference will probably diminish as more of the rural vote gets counted, the question is how much?

[warandwar]

It's worth mentioning that the 2016 election was not polarized between poor rural areas and middle class urban areas in a meaningful way. Also, given that the old Fujimori base among poors in parts of Peru seems to no longer exist, there's every reason to think this election will be far more polarized than 2011 was.

Why is it that the old Fujimori poors rural base seems to no longer exist?

I'm not sure what DFB meant but a fair amount of Fujimori 1990 voters fled the countryside to the slum exurbs of Lima in the 90s (still a good part of her base). Others have deserted over the years, especially in reaction to the recent corruption scandals.

[mileslunn]

Keiko with 88% support in San Isidro lol

Likewise with 87% Castillo in Puno and 88% in Huancavelica.

Do Indigenous voters go heavily for left?  I know Puno having been there is overwhelmingly indigenous while is Fujimoro more popular amongst Whites and Mestizos? 

[Red Velvet]

Canada

Fujimori 76,5%
Castillo 23,5%

Mexico

Fujimori 73,3%
Castillo 26,7%

Colombia

Fujimori 72,5%
Castillo 27,5%

Bolivia

Fujimori 64,7%
Castillo 35,3%

Brazil (25% counted)

Fujimori 55,4%
Castillo 44,6%

[Oryxslayer]

Difference will probably diminish as more of the rural vote gets counted, the question is how much?

The real takeaway from my perspective is a 6.3% abstention rate, whereas every poll - even the Ipsos exit - had that over 10%. Unless the pollsters were including metaphorical couch-sitters than that's a big difference.

If true we might be heading for a result that diverges from every data point so far...which might be in Keiko's favor given the composition of the round 1 electorate.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Keiko with 88% support in San Isidro lol

Likewise with 87% Castillo in Puno and 88% in Huancavelica.

Folks, this election isn't actually that similar to 2011! I've been saying this:
Puno in 2011 - Humala 78%, Keiko 22%
Huancavelica in 2011 - Humala 72%, Keiko 28%

Worth mentioning that results in both places likely understate Castillo's support.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Keiko with 88% support in San Isidro lol

Likewise with 87% Castillo in Puno and 88% in Huancavelica.

Do Indigenous voters go heavily for left?  I know Puno having been there is overwhelmingly indigenous while is Fujimoro more popular amongst Whites and Mestizos? 

To my knowledge, while indigenous voters have tended to back the left rather heavily over the past decade, this kind of consolidation is pretty unprecedented.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Keiko with 88% support in San Isidro lol

Likewise with 87% Castillo in Puno and 88% in Huancavelica.

Do Indigenous voters go heavily for left?  I know Puno having been there is overwhelmingly indigenous while is Fujimoro more popular amongst Whites and Mestizos? 

To my knowledge, while indigenous voters have tended to back the left rather heavily over the past decade, this kind of consolidation is pretty unprecedented.

Castillo's candidancy is pretty much tailor-made to win quasi-DPRK margins in places like Puno, isn't it?

[Red Velvet]

Difference will probably diminish as more of the rural vote gets counted, the question is how much?

The real takeaway from my perspective is a 6.3% abstention rate, whereas every poll - even the Ipsos exit - had that over 10%. Unless the pollsters were including metaphorical couch-sitters than that's a big difference.

If true we might be heading for a result that diverges from every data point so far...which might be in Keiko's favor given the composition of the round 1 electorate.

Based on ONPE, Lima is 51% counted while Castillo areas are 30% counted.

So the difference will diminish to close the gap. The question is, will it be enough? There’s still plenty of vote to be counted as it’s 43% overall now.

If I had to guess, IPSOS got it perfectly and whoever wins will do it with just over 50%.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I think Castillo has this because in the most remote areas, he's pulling well over 90% and it's pretty evident that there are lots of remote villages where 0 votes have been counted where he's set to win 95% of the vote or more.