Israel-Gaza war

[Libertas Vel Mors]

This is horrific. I don't know how anything remains the same after this.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

A thought: what does Hamas really see as its core constituency? What does it see as its goals? We should not look at this purely from the perspective of territory, we should think of this in terms of political goals achieved or flunked, or neither (and not just short-term ones).
Even a conventional defeat might play into Hamas' hands, as Bibi and co could have difficulty getting their goals through in both Gaza and West Bank simultaneously, and the Arab World would be more outraged at what Israeli military actions unfold in Gaza than at Hamas' actions. If its mojo of fighting the Israelis is in better shape than at the start, and they aren't completely smashed, this might even be a net win outcome for Hamas, given they oppose normalization, and value cred as a premier anti-Israeli force in the eyes of the Arab street.
Of course, a messy outcome leaves room for both Hamas and Bibi to end up as net winners in the short-term. Long-term, is another story.

I don’t see Bibi coming out out this as a winner, he has clearly failed the Israeli population, I expect this will result in even more extreme parties coming out on the top. As for Hamas, I don’t expect a lot of survivors.

While it does feel a little crass for me to speculate about electoral implications, it does seem like this poses a strong opening for someone like Benny Gantz, who is seen as a credible national security guy.

The thing is, much like the second Intifada, an attack of this scale and viciousness ends the chances of any pro-concessions movement for a long time. So attacking Netanyahu on his failings as a security chief and promising effective action against the enemy might be a winning strategy for his top opposition.

No. You don't get it. Gantz, Netanyahu etc, this doesn't help any of them. This is the most radical right-shift in Israeli history.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

This is horrific. I don't know how anything remains the same after this. Israel would be completely justified to vaporize the Gaza Strip from top to bottom, and frankly it must at the very least ensure that the Gaza Strip does not continue to exist as it does now.

Was a coinflip whether you would would take this stance or "the perfidious Jew must be beaten back" but I guess this form of bloodlust was slightly less surprising.

I am literally a Jew and have been completely pro-Israel my entire life. Basic support for civilization and decency compels it. Go  yourself and I have no patience for people like you who on the one hand cheer on terrorism and on the other hand pretend to be innocents.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

A thought: what does Hamas really see as its core constituency? What does it see as its goals? We should not look at this purely from the perspective of territory, we should think of this in terms of political goals achieved or flunked, or neither (and not just short-term ones).
Even a conventional defeat might play into Hamas' hands, as Bibi and co could have difficulty getting their goals through in both Gaza and West Bank simultaneously, and the Arab World would be more outraged at what Israeli military actions unfold in Gaza than at Hamas' actions. If its mojo of fighting the Israelis is in better shape than at the start, and they aren't completely smashed, this might even be a net win outcome for Hamas, given they oppose normalization, and value cred as a premier anti-Israeli force in the eyes of the Arab street.
Of course, a messy outcome leaves room for both Hamas and Bibi to end up as net winners in the short-term. Long-term, is another story.

I don’t see Bibi coming out out this as a winner, he has clearly failed the Israeli population, I expect this will result in even more extreme parties coming out on the top. As for Hamas, I don’t expect a lot of survivors.

While it does feel a little crass for me to speculate about electoral implications, it does seem like this poses a strong opening for someone like Benny Gantz, who is seen as a credible national security guy.

The thing is, much like the second Intifada, an attack of this scale and viciousness ends the chances of any pro-concessions movement for a long time. So attacking Netanyahu on his failings as a security chief and promising effective action against the enemy might be a winning strategy for his top opposition.

No. You don't get it. Gantz, Netanyahu etc, this doesn't help any of them. This is the most radical right-shift in Israeli history.

I don't think you get that the foreign policy of everyone to the right of Meretz will be identical after this.

Ben Gvir and his ilk being in the government right now isn't going to help them.

No, it won't. Labor is not going to call for the elimination of the Gaza Strip. After today, probably 40%+ of Israeli voters, maybe even a majority, would.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

A thought: what does Hamas really see as its core constituency? What does it see as its goals? We should not look at this purely from the perspective of territory, we should think of this in terms of political goals achieved or flunked, or neither (and not just short-term ones).
Even a conventional defeat might play into Hamas' hands, as Bibi and co could have difficulty getting their goals through in both Gaza and West Bank simultaneously, and the Arab World would be more outraged at what Israeli military actions unfold in Gaza than at Hamas' actions. If its mojo of fighting the Israelis is in better shape than at the start, and they aren't completely smashed, this might even be a net win outcome for Hamas, given they oppose normalization, and value cred as a premier anti-Israeli force in the eyes of the Arab street.
Of course, a messy outcome leaves room for both Hamas and Bibi to end up as net winners in the short-term. Long-term, is another story.

I don’t see Bibi coming out out this as a winner, he has clearly failed the Israeli population, I expect this will result in even more extreme parties coming out on the top. As for Hamas, I don’t expect a lot of survivors.

While it does feel a little crass for me to speculate about electoral implications, it does seem like this poses a strong opening for someone like Benny Gantz, who is seen as a credible national security guy.

The thing is, much like the second Intifada, an attack of this scale and viciousness ends the chances of any pro-concessions movement for a long time. So attacking Netanyahu on his failings as a security chief and promising effective action against the enemy might be a winning strategy for his top opposition.

No. You don't get it. Gantz, Netanyahu etc, this doesn't help any of them. This is the most radical right-shift in Israeli history.

I don't think you get that the foreign policy of everyone to the right of Meretz will be identical after this.

Ben Gvir and his ilk being in the government right now isn't going to help them.

No, it won't. Labor is not going to call for the elimination of the Gaza Strip. After today, probably 40%+ of Israeli voters, maybe even a majority, would.

A good reason to support Labor.

Maybe. I don't agree, but regardless it is important to understand that this is not a "helps x at the expense of y" situation but rather a paradigm shift.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

A thought: what does Hamas really see as its core constituency? What does it see as its goals? We should not look at this purely from the perspective of territory, we should think of this in terms of political goals achieved or flunked, or neither (and not just short-term ones).
Even a conventional defeat might play into Hamas' hands, as Bibi and co could have difficulty getting their goals through in both Gaza and West Bank simultaneously, and the Arab World would be more outraged at what Israeli military actions unfold in Gaza than at Hamas' actions. If its mojo of fighting the Israelis is in better shape than at the start, and they aren't completely smashed, this might even be a net win outcome for Hamas, given they oppose normalization, and value cred as a premier anti-Israeli force in the eyes of the Arab street.
Of course, a messy outcome leaves room for both Hamas and Bibi to end up as net winners in the short-term. Long-term, is another story.

I don’t see Bibi coming out out this as a winner, he has clearly failed the Israeli population, I expect this will result in even more extreme parties coming out on the top. As for Hamas, I don’t expect a lot of survivors.

While it does feel a little crass for me to speculate about electoral implications, it does seem like this poses a strong opening for someone like Benny Gantz, who is seen as a credible national security guy.

The thing is, much like the second Intifada, an attack of this scale and viciousness ends the chances of any pro-concessions movement for a long time. So attacking Netanyahu on his failings as a security chief and promising effective action against the enemy might be a winning strategy for his top opposition.

No. You don't get it. Gantz, Netanyahu etc, this doesn't help any of them. This is the most radical right-shift in Israeli history.

I don't think you get that the foreign policy of everyone to the right of Meretz will be identical after this.

Ben Gvir and his ilk being in the government right now isn't going to help them.

No, it won't. Labor is not going to call for the elimination of the Gaza Strip. After today, probably 40%+ of Israeli voters, maybe even a majority, would.

A good reason to support Labor.

Maybe. I don't agree, but regardless it is important to understand that this is not a "helps x at the expense of y" situation but rather a paradigm shift.

Yeah it's terrifying. Moderate voices of reasons marginalized, arsonists and madmen elevated.

I think that after today it is worth questioning what constitutes a voice of reason, just as it was worth questioning after the failure of Oslo.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Israel is not a democracy.

Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.

Israel is a democracy only in name.

Total lie.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Separately, I think the 24 divisions number is misleading. Judea and Samaria have a far larger border with Israel and Israel actually controls the region (and if it didn't, we would probably be seeing this attack also emerge from there), so of course more troops will be located in Judea and Samaria. The question is not why 24 divisions were in Judea and Samaria, but why Israeli troops along the border were taken by surprise and why Hamas was able to make a breach in the first place.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

As for the democracy bit, millions of Arabs have the right and have voted in Israeli elections. Residents of Judea and Samaria primarily live outside of Israeli occupation in Zones A and B, and have the right to vote in Palestinian elections, as their representatives demanded and received under the Oslo Accords. The question re: Judea and Samaria is not one of democracy, but rather of whether that government (the Palestinian Authority) should be made into a state and whether Israel should withdraw from Judea and Samaria.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

So I partied pretty hard last night without any news on at all. Last thing I heard before I went to sleep at 5:00 A.M.-ish was that a single woman had been killed in a rocket strike. I literally thought to myself "long time since I've heard that" because the Iron Dome usually handles these rockets. Wake up 12 hours later to find 300+ dead and hostages taken. Crazy stuff.

The moderator warning on top of the thread suggests I've missed some good Atlas drama though.

Partying when we haven't had a fear and loathing update? Very disappointing.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Israel is not a democracy.

Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.

Israel is a democracy only in name.

Total lie.

How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?

All Arab-Israelis can vote in Israeli elections, and all Palestinian residents of Judea and Samaria can vote in Palestinian Authority elections. The alternative would be for Israel to annex Judea and Samaria -- do you want Israel to do that?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Using the term "Judea and Samaria" on an international forum is dickish behavior.

I historically used the term West Bank. I will no longer do so after today.

(Also, plenty of pro-Israel non-Israeli politicians use the term so its really not an international problem, just a "this is the normal term" problem).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Using the term "Judea and Samaria" on an international forum is dickish behavior.

I historically used the term West Bank. I will no longer do so after today.

Don't you live in North Carolina?

Yeah. Why would that be relevant?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Israel is not a democracy.

Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.

Israel is a democracy only in name.

Total lie.

How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?

None because that isn't Israel, as every map printed in the last 56 years will tell you. They are disputed territories awaiting permanent adjudication and are under the authority of the Palestinian Authority and the military supervision of Israel. Arabs who are citizens of Israel  and live inside Israel can and do vote but Arabs who live outside of Israel and aren't citizens of Israel can't vote. I'd think this distinction would be obvious.

Again, the alternative would be Israeli annexation of Judea and Samaria, which would be way more unpopular with the Palestinian residents there. People complaining that Palestinian residents of the West Bank can't vote in Israeli elections don't understand that no one wants that (actually, except for some Israeli nationalists who want it in the long term because they support integrating Judea and Samaria).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Using the term "Judea and Samaria" on an international forum is dickish behavior.

I historically used the term West Bank. I will no longer do so after today.

Don't you live in North Carolina?

Yeah. Why would that be relevant?

You're American.

Yep. And I am now using the term Judea and Samaria, just as many Republican politicians do.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Israel is not a democracy.

Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.

Israel is a democracy only in name.

Total lie.

How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?

All Arab-Israelis can vote in Israeli elections, and all Palestinian residents of Judea and Samaria can vote in Palestinian Authority elections. The alternative would be for Israel to annex Judea and Samaria -- do you want Israel to do that?

Why don't you answer my question?

--> "How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?"

None who are not citizens, of course. But that's an irrelevant question, just like asking "What % of Mexicans in Mexico can vote in American elections?"

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Using the term "Judea and Samaria" on an international forum is dickish behavior.

I historically used the term West Bank. I will no longer do so after today.

Don't you live in North Carolina?

Yeah. Why would that be relevant?

You're American.

Yep. And I am now using the term Judea and Samaria, just as many Republican politicians do.

You say that as if it doesn't undermine your position.

I don't think it in any way undermines my position, no.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Israel is not a democracy.

Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.

Israel is a democracy only in name.

Total lie.

How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?

All Arab-Israelis can vote in Israeli elections, and all Palestinian residents of Judea and Samaria can vote in Palestinian Authority elections. The alternative would be for Israel to annex Judea and Samaria -- do you want Israel to do that?

Why don't you answer my question?

--> "How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?"

None who are not citizens, of course. But that's an irrelevant question, just like asking "What % of Mexicans in Mexico can vote in American elections?"

The United States is not occupying Mexico as far as I am aware.

Okay, let me re-frame this discussion. Are you advocating that Israeli annex the West Bank, and grant citizenship to all Palestinians there?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Israel is not a democracy.

Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.

Israel is a democracy only in name.

Total lie.

How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?

All Arab-Israelis can vote in Israeli elections, and all Palestinian residents of Judea and Samaria can vote in Palestinian Authority elections. The alternative would be for Israel to annex Judea and Samaria -- do you want Israel to do that?

Why don't you answer my question?

--> "How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?"

None who are not citizens, of course. But that's an irrelevant question, just like asking "What % of Mexicans in Mexico can vote in American elections?"

The United States is not occupying Mexico as far as I am aware.

Okay, let me re-frame this discussion. Are you advocating that Israeli annex the West Bank, and grant citizenship to all Palestinians there?

Israel can either (1.) annex the West Bank and grant citizenship to Palestinians there or (2.) leave the West Bank

Do you understand that the Palestinians and Arab governments would violently object to 1, and that as today demonstrates 2 is not feasible?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

It's fascinating to me how people will talk about whether Israel is a democracy or not and then in the same breath talk about how Hamas is the democratic choice of the people of Gaza. Hamas won an election in 2006, hosted a coup, severed Gaza off from the rest of the Palestinian Authority, rejected the idea of holding another election or reuniting with the West Bank, and has ignored or worked to sidetrack any peace negotiations held by the actual Palestinian government in Ramallah ever since. But sure, Hamas' Gaza is a democracy because they won a vote 17 years ago and have installed a regime of autarky and starvation and made sure no one could vote them out over it ever since.

It's wild to me that so many people in this thread are treating Hamas, rather than Fatah and Mahmoud Abbas, as the legitimate face of the Palestinians. The Palestinians have a leader and they have a government and it wants no part in this stupid war! This is on Hamas.

Mahmoud Abbas’s four-year term as President expired almost 15 years ago. Not sure how much legitimacy he has within the territories the PA governs (in collaboration with the Israeli military; one could be forgiven for believing that this undermines his legitimacy among the Palestinians).

There’s international legitimacy and there’s domestic legitimacy. We see many divides between the two between Israelis and the international community (broadly defined)—is it the West Bank or Judea and Samaria? The same can be and is also true of the Palestinians.

Yeah, Hamas is the legitimate face of the Palestinians (even if it is not democratically-elected). They own this.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Absolutely tragic and unjustifiable. Israeli civilians are not to blame for the conflict.

I totally agree.

As I've often said on Atlas, violence begets violence, which begets more violence, which begets more violence after that. It's an endless cycle.

Israeli civilians killed by rockets or kidnapped by Hamas will result in the IDF launching airstrikes on Gaza that will level whole apartment blocs and result in thousands of Palestinians dying. The generation of young Palestinian children who experience the horrors that are about to come to Gaza will grow up traumatized and radicalized against Israel. Those children, come 2040ish, will be the lifeblood of the next wave of violence, and the Israeli children traumatized by todays event will be compelled by the brutal reality of circumstance to kill those same Palestinians on the battlefield. Do you see how the cycle just perpetuates itself?

Yes, but Sanchez,

A. Given that Islamic terrorism is so widespread even in countries where nothing of the sort has occurred (ie, Palestinians in Lebanon engaging in terrorism after not being in Israel, but also more broadly), don't you think this might keep happening even if Israel didn't retaliate?

B. If peace is impossible, what would you recommend Israel do? (This isn't a gotcha question -- I am genuinely curious, since your analysis in generally sage)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Israel is not a democracy.

Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.

Israel is a democracy only in name.

Total lie.

How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?

All Arab-Israelis can vote in Israeli elections, and all Palestinian residents of Judea and Samaria can vote in Palestinian Authority elections. The alternative would be for Israel to annex Judea and Samaria -- do you want Israel to do that?

Why don't you answer my question?

--> "How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?"

None who are not citizens, of course. But that's an irrelevant question, just like asking "What % of Mexicans in Mexico can vote in American elections?"

The United States is not occupying Mexico as far as I am aware.

Okay, let me re-frame this discussion. Are you advocating that Israeli annex the West Bank, and grant citizenship to all Palestinians there?

Israel can either (1.) annex the West Bank and grant citizenship to Palestinians there or (2.) leave the West Bank

Do you understand that the Palestinians and Arab governments would violently object to 1, and that as today demonstrates 2 is not feasible?

Option 3. Jordan gets the West Bank, or at least most of it.

That would result in both of the downsides of 1 and 2: Israel would no longer be secure, and the Palestinians would hate it. Plus, Jordan would hate it!

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Israel is not a democracy.

Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.

Israel is a democracy only in name.

Total lie.

How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?

All Arab-Israelis can vote in Israeli elections, and all Palestinian residents of Judea and Samaria can vote in Palestinian Authority elections. The alternative would be for Israel to annex Judea and Samaria -- do you want Israel to do that?

Why don't you answer my question?

--> "How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?"

None who are not citizens, of course. But that's an irrelevant question, just like asking "What % of Mexicans in Mexico can vote in American elections?"

The United States is not occupying Mexico as far as I am aware.

Okay, let me re-frame this discussion. Are you advocating that Israeli annex the West Bank, and grant citizenship to all Palestinians there?

Israel can either (1.) annex the West Bank and grant citizenship to Palestinians there or (2.) leave the West Bank

Do you understand that the Palestinians and Arab governments would violently object to 1, and that as today demonstrates 2 is not feasible?

Option 3. Jordan gets the West Bank, or at least most of it.

Unless you have a time machine to 1967 this (or its companion "Gaza to Egypt") is a non-starter because the Jordanians are TERRIFIED of this prospect (likely meaning revolution in Jordan and a Palestinian majority in their population) just like the Egyptians are desperate to not have 2 million mouths to feed in Gaza.

There's that story of Trump calling up the Jordanian King and nearly giving him a heart attack by saying "Good news, you're getting the West Bank!" when he was up on his peace deal attempt.

Yeah, the Jordanians definitely haven't forgotten Black September and definitely don't want millions of Islamists joining their country.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Israel is not a democracy.

Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.

Israel is a democracy only in name.

Total lie.

How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?

All Arab-Israelis can vote in Israeli elections, and all Palestinian residents of Judea and Samaria can vote in Palestinian Authority elections. The alternative would be for Israel to annex Judea and Samaria -- do you want Israel to do that?

Why don't you answer my question?

--> "How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?"

None who are not citizens, of course. But that's an irrelevant question, just like asking "What % of Mexicans in Mexico can vote in American elections?"

The United States is not occupying Mexico as far as I am aware.

Okay, let me re-frame this discussion. Are you advocating that Israeli annex the West Bank, and grant citizenship to all Palestinians there?

Israel can either (1.) annex the West Bank and grant citizenship to Palestinians there or (2.) leave the West Bank

Do you understand that the Palestinians and Arab governments would violently object to 1, and that as today demonstrates 2 is not feasible?

Do you understand that Israel is disenfranchising millions of Palestinians?

They're not disenfranchsing anyone, because these Palestinians don't in Israel. So the question thus becomes, again

1. Do you want Israel to annex the West Bank, which the Palestinians and Arab governments would violently object to?

or

2. Do you want Israel to leave the West Bank, even though that would lead to regular terrorist attacks like this?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Israel is not a democracy.

Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East.

Israel is a democracy only in name.

Total lie.

How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?

All Arab-Israelis can vote in Israeli elections, and all Palestinian residents of Judea and Samaria can vote in Palestinian Authority elections. The alternative would be for Israel to annex Judea and Samaria -- do you want Israel to do that?

Why don't you answer my question?

--> "How many percent of Palestinians in West Bank can participate in Israel's elections?"

None who are not citizens, of course. But that's an irrelevant question, just like asking "What % of Mexicans in Mexico can vote in American elections?"

The United States is not occupying Mexico as far as I am aware.

Okay, let me re-frame this discussion. Are you advocating that Israeli annex the West Bank, and grant citizenship to all Palestinians there?

Israel can either (1.) annex the West Bank and grant citizenship to Palestinians there or (2.) leave the West Bank

Do you understand that the Palestinians and Arab governments would violently object to 1, and that as today demonstrates 2 is not feasible?

Do you understand that Israel is disenfranchising millions of Palestinians?

They're not disenfranchsing anyone, because these Palestinians don't in Israel. So the question thus becomes, again

1. Do you want Israel to annex the West Bank, which the Palestinians and Arab governments would violently object to?

or

2. Do you want Israel to leave the West Bank, even though that would lead to regular terrorist attacks like this?

Palestinians don't [what?] in Israel

Sorry, live