COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Pericles]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1247341470450962432

The casual corruption from this administration is disgusting, as is the fact that it is so rife that it has become normal and people have lost interest.

[Sbane]

Oh I know it was bureaucratic nonsense but the buck stops with Trump. It was his own people doing the bungling. He did finally put his foot down and got the testing flowing, like it is now. It was just a few weeks too late. We can only speculate if Hillary or someone else would have done better, but Trump's government screwed it up. That is what we know for sure.

As I said my understanding that it's what experts-epidemiologist (not bureaucratic) of CDC decision to proceed like this. If there is any evidence that experts of CDS were demanding more testing, but Trump/his bureaucrats screw it up, link to it.

I already linked to CNN article that explained about CDC routines, here is 538 about testing and diff vs South Korea
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-coronavirus-tests-actually-work/

Compare that to South Korea, where people can get their results in about a day. There, the government had been stockpiling the necessary chemicals for years after COVID-19’s cousin MERS briefly hit that country in 2015. That helped the country move quickly to approve and decentralize testing as soon as COVID-19 arrived.

See, a structural problem that US governments didn't stockpiled, not specifically Trump's or Obama's. Most European Countries are doing worse/same.

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1245449988186025985

Bug and feature of US system.

Even now states like mine just aren't testing enough and they aren't recommending tests unless you fall under a strict criteria.

Take a look at Europe. Even stricter criteria, even less testing for most countries. Explanation is not that their current governments were "bungling", but that their systems are structurally different from US and that most governments have been "bungling" in decades.

Germany is an obvious exception. Fast and massive testing from the beginning.

First of all, I would like to note that most of Europe has done a sh**t job and that is not who I would want to emulate, with the exception of Germany, as you noted. South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Germany have shown us how to keep this thing under some control.

Concerning the CDC and testing, obviously there are some systemic issues at play that we have to get to the bottom of. There will need to be an investigation into this just like the 9/11 commission. That being said, things did get better once there was pressure from the top. Unfortunately, the people at the top (Trump and his immediate subordinates) weren't very interested in this until it was too late. If they had been pushing for more testing since January we would have had more testing and caught the outbreaks in NYC and New Orleans sooner. I do hold the CDC to a higher standard than its peers in other nations. Don't forget, America is the greatest country in the world.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/JMcGuireMLB/status/1247301151948759046

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/1247349588509495296?s=20

[Badger]

Roommate has tested positive. 

Not really much more to say on that other than hoping that there's some avenue to make those with whom she came into contact on her way from Philly to Montana aware of it. 

That sucks.

Hope you're doing okay?

Pretty uncomfortable, sore, and sweating like crazy, but I'll get through it -- thank you, Badger.

 

Have you lost any sense of smell or taste? I lost both around day 6

How are you doing today, my man?

[Del Tachi]

The varying rates within the Metro might come down to demographics - with suburban counties being older than the relatively young City. 

I suspect this a density story through-and-through.  NYC is 60% denser than SF and more transit-centric (55% of households in NYC don’t have a car, only 30% in SF).

You should be required to post a warning with each post that you've been proven wrong on every count over the past month. Impressive bullsh**tting though.

Care to inform me which counts I'm wrong on here?


NYC is younger than its suburbs, as well as denser/more transit-dependent than San Francisco. 

These factors would explain why New York was hit first and hit harder than other American cities.

[Koharu]

Mice who were taking metformin and hydroxychloroquine died at a much higher rate than those just taking hydroxychloroquine. Metformin is a very common diabetes and PCOS drug.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/04/05/researchers-warn-that-covid-19-treatment-touted-by-trump-may-be-toxic-when-combined-with-diabetes-drug/#40143a0255f8

[ProudModerate2]

I didn't know it was possible, but this press conference today is the biggest disaster and sh!tshow so far, yelling at a Hong Kong reporter, threatening to shut down the press conferences, calling every single reporter fake news and in the pocket of Democrats, refusing to answer questions about the IG report

I see nothing that the President says that actually brings comfort and confidence to the American people that the federal government is bringing help and hope.
He actually gets-up there and brings despair.
trump is the world's worst leader and pathetic of a human being.

[ProudModerate2]

Trump berates reporters when asked about report by his own administration.

President Trump got upset with reporters when asked about a report by HHS Inspector General Christi Grimm, who Trump appointed.

Click here to watch video ... https://us.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/04/06/trump-inspector-general-report-christi-grimm-vpx.cnn 

[Sbane]

NYC vs. the rest of the country (including SF which also has high public transit commuting, dense housing, and a large homeless population and is rather amazingly doing fine) makes me wonder if closing schools might be the single most important intervention?  Japan closed schools very early and while they are having some issues now (2nd wave?), they seem to be doing very well vs. the free world average. 

One relevant point to consider when talking about density is that the highest concentrations in the NY area are not in NYC on a per capita basis, but rather in Westchester and Rockland Counties north of the city, followed by Nassau County, and only then by the Bronx and Queens. Even within the city, the per capita rate doesn't follow density; Manhattan is by far the densest borough but has the lowest per capita rate of the five boroughs and is lower than multiple suburban counties (those mentioned above and also Orange and Suffolk Counties and Bergen County, NJ, which all also have higher per capita rates than Brooklyn).

This all suggests that NYC's severe outbreak relative to other cities is mostly down to bad luck (perhaps some early super-spreader cases) rather than density.

The varying rates within the Metro might come down to demographics - with suburban counties being older than the relatively young City. 

I suspect this a density story through-and-through.  NYC is 60% denser than SF and more transit-centric (55% of households in NYC don’t have a car, only 30% in SF).

Shutting down early is just as important. SF is denser than LA but LA has been less successful at bending the curve than SF. The Bay Area shut down just a few days earlier than the rest of California and took it a bit more seriously than the rest of California as well as the country, and the results show.

[Lourdes]

Former Rep. Charlie Dent has tested positive:

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1247333136981262341

[Del Tachi]

NYC vs. the rest of the country (including SF which also has high public transit commuting, dense housing, and a large homeless population and is rather amazingly doing fine) makes me wonder if closing schools might be the single most important intervention?  Japan closed schools very early and while they are having some issues now (2nd wave?), they seem to be doing very well vs. the free world average. 

One relevant point to consider when talking about density is that the highest concentrations in the NY area are not in NYC on a per capita basis, but rather in Westchester and Rockland Counties north of the city, followed by Nassau County, and only then by the Bronx and Queens. Even within the city, the per capita rate doesn't follow density; Manhattan is by far the densest borough but has the lowest per capita rate of the five boroughs and is lower than multiple suburban counties (those mentioned above and also Orange and Suffolk Counties and Bergen County, NJ, which all also have higher per capita rates than Brooklyn).

This all suggests that NYC's severe outbreak relative to other cities is mostly down to bad luck (perhaps some early super-spreader cases) rather than density.

The varying rates within the Metro might come down to demographics - with suburban counties being older than the relatively young City. 

I suspect this a density story through-and-through.  NYC is 60% denser than SF and more transit-centric (55% of households in NYC don’t have a car, only 30% in SF).

Shutting down early is just as important. SF is denser than LA but LA has been less successful at bending the curve than SF. The Bay Area shut down just a few days earlier than the rest of California and took it a bit more seriously than the rest of California as well as the country, and the results show.

So far the # of cases in the population looks pretty consistent between SF and LA.  1:1515 in SF, 1:1585 in LA County.  By what metric is SF doing much better than the rest of California?

[Green Line]

Florida and DeSantis have been raked over the coals on here and in much of the media.

At what point do facts enter the conversation?  We've been hearing for a month now that Florida is about to explode and DeSantis committed mass murder by not closing beaches (lol).  Florida has less deaths than Illinois despite having millions more residents, and at the same time has tested about 20K more and has a similar number of infected.  Somehow JB has been praised on here for his strong response.

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass death?

[TJ in Oregon]

Florida and DeSantis have been raked over the coals on here and in much of the media.

At what point do facts enter the conversation?  We've been hearing for a month now that Florida is about to explode and DeSantis committed mass murder by not closing beaches (lol).  Florida has less deaths than Illinois despite having millions more residents, and at the same time has tested about 20K more and has a similar number of infected.  Somehow JB has been praised on here for his strong response.

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass murder?

It's very likely still the inebriated undergrads who they allowed to keep partying there went home and seeded outbreaks all over the place. Even if we kept most of America open and running, it's the sort of thing you'd need to ban real fast if you want to get coronavirus under control.

[brucejoel99]

Trump berates reporters when asked about report by his own administration.

President Trump got upset with reporters when asked about a report by HHS Inspector General Christi Grimm, who Trump appointed.

Click here to watch video ... https://us.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/04/06/trump-inspector-general-report-christi-grimm-vpx.cnn  

He's the most unprofessional f**k in our government.

[T'Chenka]

Florida and DeSantis have been raked over the coals on here and in much of the media.

At what point do facts enter the conversation?  We've been hearing for a month now that Florida is about to explode and DeSantis committed mass murder by not closing beaches (lol).  Florida has less deaths than Illinois despite having millions more residents, and at the same time has tested about 20K more and has a similar number of infected.  Somehow JB has been praised on here for his strong response.

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass death?

Combining logic, common sense, science and history to make informed predictions about the future is not "making stuff up".

[Green Line]

Florida and DeSantis have been raked over the coals on here and in much of the media.

At what point do facts enter the conversation?  We've been hearing for a month now that Florida is about to explode and DeSantis committed mass murder by not closing beaches (lol).  Florida has less deaths than Illinois despite having millions more residents, and at the same time has tested about 20K more and has a similar number of infected.  Somehow JB has been praised on here for his strong response.

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass murder?

It's very likely still the inebriated undergrads who they allowed to keep partying there went home and seeded outbreaks all over the place. Even if we kept most of America open and running, it's the sort of thing you'd need to ban real fast if you want to get coronavirus under control.

Something that you can't really prove, and aside from that, it wasn't the narrative we were pushed.  I heard many times that DeSantis needs to be impeached for killing his own residents.  Spring Break was very much over when people were still calling the beaches a place of great danger.

[Green Line]

Florida and DeSantis have been raked over the coals on here and in much of the media.

At what point do facts enter the conversation?  We've been hearing for a month now that Florida is about to explode and DeSantis committed mass murder by not closing beaches (lol).  Florida has less deaths than Illinois despite having millions more residents, and at the same time has tested about 20K more and has a similar number of infected.  Somehow JB has been praised on here for his strong response.

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass death?

Combining logic, common sense, science and history to make informed predictions about the future is not "making stuff up".

If you did any of that, you wouldn't have been saying all the dumb things you said.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Roommate has tested positive. 

Not really much more to say on that other than hoping that there's some avenue to make those with whom she came into contact on her way from Philly to Montana aware of it. 

That sucks.

Hope you're doing okay?

Pretty uncomfortable, sore, and sweating like crazy, but I'll get through it -- thank you, Badger.

 

Have you lost any sense of smell or taste? I lost both around day 6

How are you doing today, my man?

I'm good, all that is left is a cough but everything else has pretty much gone away

[Badger]

Florida and DeSantis have been raked over the coals on here and in much of the media.

At what point do facts enter the conversation?  We've been hearing for a month now that Florida is about to explode and DeSantis committed mass murder by not closing beaches (lol).  Florida has less deaths than Illinois despite having millions more residents, and at the same time has tested about 20K more and has a similar number of infected.  Somehow JB has been praised on here for his strong response.

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass death?

Combining logic, common sense, science and history to make informed predictions about the future is not "making stuff up".

If you did any of that, you wouldn't have been saying all the dumb things you said.

Great. Now finish him off with "I know you are but what am I".

[Green Line]

Florida and DeSantis have been raked over the coals on here and in much of the media.

At what point do facts enter the conversation?  We've been hearing for a month now that Florida is about to explode and DeSantis committed mass murder by not closing beaches (lol).  Florida has less deaths than Illinois despite having millions more residents, and at the same time has tested about 20K more and has a similar number of infected.  Somehow JB has been praised on here for his strong response.

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass death?

Combining logic, common sense, science and history to make informed predictions about the future is not "making stuff up".

If you did any of that, you wouldn't have been saying all the dumb things you said.

Great. Now finish him off with "I know you are but what am I".

Contribute, or zip it.

[T'Chenka]

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass death?

Combining logic, common sense, science and history to make informed predictions about the future is not "making stuff up".

If you did any of that, you wouldn't have been saying all the dumb things you said.

Your argument is what exactly? Packing beaches full of people shoulder to shoulder during a deadly pandemic WON'T result in increases in infections and deaths? Lol.

I'll just leave this hear, regarding the bolded in your post:

Penn Quaker Girl assured me that mathematically we can assume that 10,000+ will die AT MINIMUM. She studies / works with epidemics so I respect her advice regarding COV-19.

Quoted for posterity.

Let's check back on that prediction in 2 months time in the USA, and see how the logic of your argument unfolds.

You have 9,907 deaths remaining.

It took 20 days.

[TJ in Oregon]

Florida and DeSantis have been raked over the coals on here and in much of the media.

At what point do facts enter the conversation?  We've been hearing for a month now that Florida is about to explode and DeSantis committed mass murder by not closing beaches (lol).  Florida has less deaths than Illinois despite having millions more residents, and at the same time has tested about 20K more and has a similar number of infected.  Somehow JB has been praised on here for his strong response.

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass murder?

It's very likely still the inebriated undergrads who they allowed to keep partying there went home and seeded outbreaks all over the place. Even if we kept most of America open and running, it's the sort of thing you'd need to ban real fast if you want to get coronavirus under control.

Something that you can't really prove, and aside from that, it wasn't the narrative we were pushed.  I heard many times that DeSantis needs to be impeached for killing his own residents.  Spring Break was very much over when people were still calling the beaches a place of great danger.

Histronics aside, you're going to have a hard time acting in a crisis if you only do things based on what you can absolutely prove. Heck, you couldn't do my engineering job if that was your standard either. You sometimes have to estimate to make calculated risks. This was a risk that should not have been taken.

[Green Line]

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass death?

Combining logic, common sense, science and history to make informed predictions about the future is not "making stuff up".

If you did any of that, you wouldn't have been saying all the dumb things you said.

Your argument is what exactly? Packing beaches full of people shoulder to shoulder during a deadly pandemic WON'T result in increases in infections and deaths? Lol.

I'll just leave this hear, regarding the bolded in your post:

Penn Quaker Girl assured me that mathematically we can assume that 10,000+ will die AT MINIMUM. She studies / works with epidemics so I respect her advice regarding COV-19.

Quoted for posterity.

Let's check back on that prediction in 2 months time in the USA, and see how the logic of your argument unfolds.

You have 9,907 deaths remaining.

It took 20 days.

I don't know why you're quoting at me with something I didn't say and never even implied, lol.

But since we are, here is what you said recently.  I don't know how to quote it because the thread is locked:

If Ron DeSantis doesn't get his head out of his a$$ in the next 10-ish days, the "100,000 to 200,000 deaths" that Birx has been using in the last day or two as an ideal outcome might happen in Florida alone, let alone the whole country.

[Green Line]

Florida and DeSantis have been raked over the coals on here and in much of the media.

At what point do facts enter the conversation?  We've been hearing for a month now that Florida is about to explode and DeSantis committed mass murder by not closing beaches (lol).  Florida has less deaths than Illinois despite having millions more residents, and at the same time has tested about 20K more and has a similar number of infected.  Somehow JB has been praised on here for his strong response.

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass murder?

It's very likely still the inebriated undergrads who they allowed to keep partying there went home and seeded outbreaks all over the place. Even if we kept most of America open and running, it's the sort of thing you'd need to ban real fast if you want to get coronavirus under control.

Something that you can't really prove, and aside from that, it wasn't the narrative we were pushed.  I heard many times that DeSantis needs to be impeached for killing his own residents.  Spring Break was very much over when people were still calling the beaches a place of great danger.

Histronics aside, you're going to have a hard time acting in a crisis if you only do things based on what you can absolutely prove. Heck, you couldn't do my engineering job if that was your standard either. You sometimes have to estimate to make calculated risks. This was a risk that should not have been taken.

When the question is whether or not to restrict the rights of Americans, you're going to need a little more evidence that people walking around on empty beaches is a risk.  Miami and most other major cities had already closed their own beaches on their own accord.  I'm talking about the whole state.