2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[robocop]

Poll across all 50 states and a decent size pitting RFK Jr. in hypothetical two-way match-ups against Trump and against Biden. Worth taking seriously and looking at some states where RFK Jr beats either or both candidates or is within a 5-point margin?

https://gazette.com/news/wex/26-000-voters-say-rfk-jr-can-win-it-all/article_8686caef-b032-5a5e-925c-26df4cd0ffa9.html

There were a few Trump v Biden two-way polls that had some solid blue sates like Oregon closer than imaginable and highlighting Florida is more favoured to Trump than some long time Midwest and Prairie States but make of that what you will.

In all honesty, considering how a Trump v Biden match up seems even more unpopular a choice than 2016 perhaps maybe just maybe could this show such a massive upset may not be too impossible after all?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol it's Zogby

[wbrocks67]

This poll was already discussed. It was literally a Zogby poll commissioned by RFK's campaign. Pretty sure no one - on the right or left - takes Zogby seriously anymore

[Steve from Lambeth]

The poll should not be taken seriously. Only Amaryllis Kennedy's sense of style should be taken seriously.

[Harlow]

For what it's worth (almost nothing), there are now three Kennedy lawn signs up in my part of western Mass, and maybe one or two Biden or Trump signs (but I've paid less attention to those).

[AltWorlder]

As small as the Constitution Party is; Terry's impact will probably be extremely minimal if for no other reason few people who aren't die-hard politicos know that party exists.

They have a real opportunity here to attack Trump's squishy anti-abortion record. But the Constitution Party is not run by people with any political thinking anymore so that probably isn't going to happen.

[AltWorlder]

Randall Terry is far from being as well-known as the likes of RFK Jr. or Cornel West but as far as fringe ideologues go, founding Operation Rescue and being the answer to the trivia question of "what pro-life hardliner ran for the Democratic Party primary against Obama in 2012?" makes him at least more noteworthy than a complete nonentity. That and him actually standing for something (unlike Don Blankenship) makes him perhaps the closest thing to the Constitution Party actually attracting an outsider 'celebrity' to be their candidate.

2024 biggest fumble for third parties EVER

No Labels: didn't even make it to starting line

RFK Jr.: foot-in-mouth campaign, forced to pick Shanahan for funding

Cornel West: perpetual party-hopper, little visibility despite name recognition

Libertarians: in disarray

Greens: couldn't get RFK or Cornel, rerunning Jill Stein

Constitution: barely exists anymore

Solidarity: didn't even make it to Free & Equal debate

I've noted before that 2024 would seem primed to be a clash of titans in the third-party space, with big names like RFK, West, heck even Jill Stein. No Labels had a ton of ballot access. Lots of general discontent with the major party nominees. But nope, these would-be spoilers just have to fumble the bag just as hard. I don't see the Constitution Party doing any better than the rest. This is probably their final presidential election with any appreciable presence, by 2028 the radicalization of the GOP will render them fully redundant, and aged out.

[Compuzled_One]

I do have to say, it isn't insane that Kennedy could win Utah in a one on one against Trump-he' get Democratic voters, some Trump ones, and a decent chunk of former McMullin voters.

[AltWorlder]

idk, I have to figure if McMullin can't win Utah when Trump was still new and an unknown political quantity, no third party candidate will carry a single state until a party system crack-up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/susannecraig/status/1788162985527058703

I'm not gonna say it...I'm not gonna say it...

[Redban]

Kennedy makes the ballot in Delaware after the Independent Party of Delaware has nominated him

Although sources have reported that Kennedy got the signatures for Texas, the Kennedy campaign hasn't announced it

https://www.kennedy24.com/kennedy_ballot_access_delaware

"The Kennedy-Shanahan ticket is officially on the ballot in four states — Utah, Michigan, California, and now Delaware. The campaign has collected enough signatures for ballot access in seven other states — New Hampshire, Nevada, Hawaii, North Carolina, Idaho, Nebraska, and Iowa."

[Open Source Intelligence]

idk, I have to figure if McMullin can't win Utah when Trump was still new and an unknown political quantity, no third party candidate will carry a single state until a party system crack-up.

I don't know, we might be about there. Signs all over.

[Redban]

Kennedy campaign announces that they have the signatures for Ohio

They have the signatures for states adding to 141 electoral votes, so they're halfway to making the ballot for 270 electoral votes

https://www.kennedy24.com/kennedy_signatures_ballot_access_ohio

[Flyersfan232]

idk, I have to figure if McMullin can't win Utah when Trump was still new and an unknown political quantity, no third party candidate will carry a single state until a party system crack-up.

I don't know, we might be about there. Signs all over.

our third parties are too insane

[Open Source Intelligence]

idk, I have to figure if McMullin can't win Utah when Trump was still new and an unknown political quantity, no third party candidate will carry a single state until a party system crack-up.

I don't know, we might be about there. Signs all over.

our third parties are too insane

Doesn't necessarily have to be current third parties. Probably wouldn't be. Republicans and Democrats increasingly have no answers. To quote my comments from the Indiana primary last night:

Low interest election leads to low turnout. The Republican Party was massively splintered for Governor, for Congress…and no one was able to give anyone a reason to catch fire and come out and vote. Braun has been running for Governor for a year and a half and has said pretty much nothing. Trump and name ID carried him (nowhere is name ID more clear than Jefferson Shreve winning the 6th when he was gung-ho pro-gun control running for Mayor of Indianapolis 6 months ago, and he won a safe seat Republican primary because of his name and he’s rich). From watching the ads all these candidates run, they were all the same ad: I’m an outsider (Braun, Crouch, Chambers, and Doden saying they were outsiders is laughable bullsh**t), I’ll secure the border (from what, Kentucky?), I’ll fight Xi Jinping and China (you’re running for Governor, not President). There’s an Adam Wren article in Politico today that is spot-on: the issues harped on were just not at all what’s going on in the state. There’s a massive property tax problem and no one touched it with a ten-foot pole.

Curtis Hill’s political career is done. I’m not sure Brad Chambers’ or Eric Doden’s career should’ve ever started. I don’t know where Crouch goes from here other than private realm. The one place she could maybe go is U.S. Senate because I can’t see Todd Young winning an uncontested primary again in 2028, that’s still 4 years.

For the Senate race, Democrats have their first contested statewide primary in 16 years, and the safe establishment pick got killed 62-38. I’m going to dig into that selection. The safe establishment pick was an old white man running against a black woman. With hardly any Democrat voters in the rural counties, I wonder if Democrats are even capable in a contested primary of producing someone for the whole state versus their urban electorates just controlling everything.

If you want any clearer sign that the Republican Party electorate en masse are splintered (there were something like 50 candidates for 7 Republican Congressional seats), don’t know what they want, and can’t make a decision, the 3rd district gave you that. Stutzman is going to win not getting 25% and 5 candidates got 10%. In the Indianapolis-based 7th, in a 4-way primary Jennifer Pace won for the Republicans. What’s special about that is Pace has been dead since March.

I don’t know if people don’t know how to consolidate now without a leader (read: Trump) telling them how to vote or without the local media covering politics. Newspapers are dead now.

This is a massively disappointing election but I don’t think the Republicans or Democrats have any desire to delve into why. You can’t say people didn’t have choices. The choices just collectively gave nothing.

I harp on mostly Republicans in that because Democrats in my area increasingly can't find anyone willing to run for public office AND bother to put forth an effort. The lady that won the Senate nomination unexpectedly only raised $15k and initially ran for President in 2020 as an Independent.

Our nation's politics are not bottom-up unfortunately in this era, they're top-down. That implies President. It's not going to be RFK Jr., but I can see a "third party strong" RFK Jr. performance when it's not like he's this A+ candidate combined with both major parties' presumably open primary in 2028 (see footnote) leading to people increasingly making the calculation "other than ballot access, what do I need them for?" If you get money, you can handle ballot access. And you'll save money not having to deal with a bruising primary where you can control your message only having to worry about a general election, and we're currently in an era where big business doesn't really have a home on either side and ripe for the taking if they think the candidacy is credible.

The parties in an infrastructure sense are historically speaking incredibly weak at the moment, and more and more you have people that hate the Democrats but don't care for the Republican Party as an institution and you have people that hate the Republicans but don't care for the Democratic Party as an institution.

(Footnote: I can see Kamala Harris in 2028 - maybe a Kamala Harris that's been President for a couple years - trying to do a Hillary Clinton 2016 field clearing exercise, and a strong independent run being in part fomented by that.)

[ReallySuper]

nyt has an article/maps of where third parties/independents are on the ballot. it only includes rfk jr, cornel west and the green party, excluding all other parties/candidates like the psl (who so far are on the ballot in utah, hawaiʻi, idaho and sc as well as having won the california p&f primary in march, although they won't officially nominate their candidate until august). it also misleadingly says that the greens have "failed to qualify" in new york and idaho, despite the fact that jill stein is on the ballot in idaho and is actively gathering signatures in new york (the deadline is not until the end of may)

[Open Source Intelligence]

RFK Jr. claims 100k signatures in New York State per Third Party Watch. You need 45k.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

nyt has an article/maps of where third parties/independents are on the ballot. it only includes rfk jr, cornel west and the green party, excluding all other parties/candidates like the psl (who so far are on the ballot in utah, hawaiʻi, idaho and sc as well as having won the california p&f primary in march, although they won't officially nominate their candidate until august). it also misleadingly says that the greens have "failed to qualify" in new york and idaho, despite the fact that jill stein is on the ballot in idaho and is actively gathering signatures in new york (the deadline is not until the end of may)

Not sure about Idaho, but the article does go into specifics about the Greens in New York:

For example, the Green Party recently lost its ballot line in New York State because its candidate did not meet a strict new voter threshold — 2 percent of the total votes cast — in the 2020 presidential election. And so to get on the New York ballot this year, the Green Party must gather 45,000 signatures in a six-week window that closes at the end of May.

[RI]

RFK's ballot access map shows him on the ballot in Oklahoma, but I don't see any press release.

[ReallySuper]

nyt has an article/maps of where third parties/independents are on the ballot. it only includes rfk jr, cornel west and the green party, excluding all other parties/candidates like the psl (who so far are on the ballot in utah, hawaiʻi, idaho and sc as well as having won the california p&f primary in march, although they won't officially nominate their candidate until august). it also misleadingly says that the greens have "failed to qualify" in new york and idaho, despite the fact that jill stein is on the ballot in idaho and is actively gathering signatures in new york (the deadline is not until the end of may)

Not sure about Idaho, but the article does go into specifics about the Greens in New York:

For example, the Green Party recently lost its ballot line in New York State because its candidate did not meet a strict new voter threshold — 2 percent of the total votes cast — in the 2020 presidential election. And so to get on the New York ballot this year, the Green Party must gather 45,000 signatures in a six-week window that closes at the end of May.

the article is correct abt new york but the map is (deliberately) misleadingly labeled as if the green party failed to get on the ballot for this cycle. bc they r still in the process of petitioning it should be labeled as such, in the same way that every other state where greens have ever lost automatic ballot access but are currently petitioning to get back on it for 2024 are labeled (so basically most of the other states). for idaho, it is labeled that way bc technically the "green party" is not on the ballot but jill stein is on as an independent. so the map is technically right but again misleading bc it doesnt say that rfk or cornel west "arent on the ballot" as independents where they have been nominated by a state third party, so it makes no sense to portray the greens as "not on the ballot" when the reverse is true (the party's nominee is on as an independent rather than on a state party line)

[GeorgiaModerate]

MyLifeIsYours: I deleted your post because your signature is so large it makes the page too wide.  Feel free to repost it after fixing your signature.

[Redban]

RFK's ballot access map shows him on the ballot in Oklahoma, but I don't see any press release.

https://www.kennedy24.com/kennedy_ballot_oklahoma

Independent Presidential Candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced today he is officially on the ballot in Oklahoma. The campaign filed its statement of candidacy and electors and paid the $35,000 fee to secure ballot access.

[Open Source Intelligence]

RFK's ballot access map shows him on the ballot in Oklahoma, but I don't see any press release.

https://www.kennedy24.com/kennedy_ballot_oklahoma

Independent Presidential Candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced today he is officially on the ballot in Oklahoma. The campaign filed its statement of candidacy and electors and paid the $35,000 fee to secure ballot access.

Yeah, Oklahoma used to be worst ballot access state in the country. After Gary Johnson in 2016 succeeded in getting more than 5% of the vote and retaining ballot access for the Libertarian Party for the next 4 years, they changed the law and switched to you could get ballot access by paying us $35,000.

[Compuzled_One]

Okay, RFK Jr. claims he got Texas. If this and New York are true, he should be able to get on the ballot basically everywhere.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Okay, RFK Jr. claims he got Texas. If this and New York are true, he should be able to get on the ballot basically everywhere.

If he does (which I expect, his campaign has the money), he'll be the first non-Libertarian presidential candidate to accomplish universal ballot access since Perot.