2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[Compuzled_One]

Honestly, I wonder, might third parties and independents have gotten cocky this year?

It feels that, with the two hated candidates, all the big ones expected the population to just come to them. So they didn't put effort into ballot access, into messaging, and, in the case of parties, into selecting big name candidates. Now Kennedy's support is collapsing, West is only on the ballot in four or so states, No Labels fell apart, and the Libertarians have no good nominee. The only politically decent third party nominee is Jill Stein.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/guypbenson/status/1780984855490130150

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/guypbenson/status/1780984855490130150/photo/1

Well that is not ideal...

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Well that is not ideal...

RFK's campaign is sophisticated enough and has enough backing to get on all the swing state ballots.

The real question is West and the Greens. I expect the Greens on most but not West.

The greens are already on the ballot in AZ, WI, MI, and NC

[Redban]

Kennedy’s PAC reported that they got the signatures for Michigan some time ago. I think this new development is that he’s getting access in Michigan via the Natural Law Party. Presumably, the process may be quicker or simpler  if he’s on the ballot because of this party?

The DNC had been filing complaints  that the signatures acquired by RFK Jr’s super PAC are invalid , so I wonder if kennedy’s team is no longer relying on the signatures acquired by the super PAC

[Open Source Intelligence]

Kennedy’s PAC reported that they got the signatures for Michigan some time ago. I think this new development is that he’s getting access in Michigan via the Natural Law Party. Presumably, the process may be quicker or simpler  if he’s on the ballot because of this party?

The DNC had been filing complaints  that the signatures acquired by RFK Jr’s super PAC are invalid , so I wonder if kennedy’s team is no longer relying on the signatures acquired by the super PAC

The Michigan Natural Law Party is a lawyer that you pay him and get the ballot access.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kennedy’s PAC reported that they got the signatures for Michigan some time ago. I think this new development is that he’s getting access in Michigan via the Natural Law Party. Presumably, the process may be quicker or simpler  if he’s on the ballot because of this party?

The DNC had been filing complaints  that the signatures acquired by RFK Jr’s super PAC are invalid , so I wonder if kennedy’s team is no longer relying on the signatures acquired by the super PAC

Yes many states lighten up the requirements if you're part of an established party that has had ballot access previously rather than just an independent/1 man party.

[henster]

I wonder why no one at the DNC thought it wasn't a good idea to convince the Dem trifecta in Michigan to raise the signature threshold there. Trump is out there gaming to get all of Nebraska's electoral votes while the Biden is just standing by.

[Open Source Intelligence]

I wonder why no one at the DNC thought it wasn't a good idea to convince the Dem trifecta in Michigan to raise the signature threshold there. Trump is out there gaming to get all of Nebraska's electoral votes while the Biden is just standing by.

Would have no effect on the Natural Law Party of Michigan.

And Nebraska's legislature voted that down.

Biden's hardly standing by. He has people in his campaign doing just as much criminal actions as Trump's campaign are as it comes to ballot access. In some cases changing laws now has no effect on this year, even if some people wish that was not the case.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/guypbenson/status/1780984855490130150/photo/1

Well that is not ideal...

You have to work under the assumption that all the swing states RFK will make the ballot. (I'm not saying all states...I'm very dubious whether he can make Texas and California) RFK has the money and most swing states aren't THAT hard to get on if you have the money. (By contrast, I expect Jill Stein to fail to make NV, GA, and maybe AZ because she DOESN'T have the money)

The Natural Law Party was deciding between giving their access to him or to Cornel West. Unlike RFK, West will probably NOT be on the ballot almost anywhere. If Natural Law Party had given access to West, it'd be RFK AND West making it on in MI, rather than this way where it's only RFK.

Cornel West isn't really trying for ballot access petitions, so getting given access by minor parties is going to be his only way on ballots.

[ReallySuper]

https://twitter.com/guypbenson/status/1780984855490130150/photo/1

Well that is not ideal...

You have to work under the assumption that all the swing states RFK will make the ballot. (I'm not saying all states...I'm very dubious whether he can make Texas and California) RFK has the money and most swing states aren't THAT hard to get on if you have the money. (By contrast, I expect Jill Stein to fail to make NV, GA, and maybe AZ because she DOESN'T have the money)

The Natural Law Party was deciding between giving their access to him or to Cornel West. Unlike RFK, West will probably NOT be on the ballot almost anywhere. If Natural Law Party had given access to West, it'd be RFK AND West making it on in MI, rather than this way where it's only RFK.

Cornel West isn't really trying for ballot access petitions, so getting given access by minor parties is going to be his only way on ballots.

jill stein is already on the ballot in az and has collected more than the required number in nv (the deadline is june so the team can still get more sigs as a buffer). georgias threshold is 7,500 and the deadline is july so i dont see that being a problem for stein at all. although she is not rolling in the dough like rfk, she and the green party have an existing team of grassroots supporters/organization that has experience getting ballot access, so they need less money compared to rfks team who have no grassroots background and therefore can only operate by throwing obscene amounts of money at things. plus, jill stein has reached the donation requirement for primary matching funds and will be receiving a $100,000 check from the fec shortly. the real challenge for greens will be new york, indiana and possibly illinois (they will probably make it at least in illinois but all three will be expensive), i expect them to be on the ballot almost everywhere else without it being terribly difficult

ur right abt cornel west tho he is obviously not trying to petition (nor does he have the means to) so hes just grifting to get on various minor state party lines

[Cyrusman]

https://twitter.com/guypbenson/status/1780984855490130150/photo/1

Well that is not ideal...

You have to work under the assumption that all the swing states RFK will make the ballot. (I'm not saying all states...I'm very dubious whether he can make Texas and California) RFK has the money and most swing states aren't THAT hard to get on if you have the money. (By contrast, I expect Jill Stein to fail to make NV, GA, and maybe AZ because she DOESN'T have the money)

The Natural Law Party was deciding between giving their access to him or to Cornel West. Unlike RFK, West will probably NOT be on the ballot almost anywhere. If Natural Law Party had given access to West, it'd be RFK AND West making it on in MI, rather than this way where it's only RFK.

Cornel West isn't really trying for ballot access petitions, so getting given access by minor parties is going to be his only way on ballots.

Pretty sure Stein and the green party already qualified in AZ.

https://www.gp.org/azgp_makes_a_comeback

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1781732177996362075

Stein manages to raise more than she spent in March...barely.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1781012544452448281

Bobby Kennedy's March. Note that this includes 2 million from Nicole Shanahan and that without that they'd be in the red for the month. Self-funding running mate is a good play for him.

Cornel West's doesn't seem to be in yet.

[The Mikado]

Cornel West raises more than he spent in March...but look at those unpaid debts:

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1782089609817817437

[AltWorlder]

Drew Carey just went viral, make him unity nominee for Libertarian Party now!!!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Drew Carey just went viral, make him unity nominee for Libertarian Party now!!!

Carey apparently supported Biden in 2020. Not sure if he'll do it again, but his priorities seem different than in his younger, more overtly libertarian days.

[The Mikado]

The Libertarian Convention is a month from now. Anyone want to make a guess who's gonna come out on top?

[MichaelM24]

The Libertarian Convention is a month from now. Anyone want to make a guess who's gonna come out on top?

My gut says Chase Oliver, Lars Mapstead, or Joshua Smith (can't narrow it down past that).

Honestly though, it's a crapshoot in my view. I'm not a Libertarian, nor do I know any active Libertarians, so I have absolutely no idea who party members are potentially excited about.

[AltWorlder]

It's really funny how despite being in power, the Mises Caucus candidates of choice are polling so abysmally with the actual voters.

[Open Source Intelligence]

It's really funny how despite being in power, the Mises Caucus candidates of choice are polling so abysmally with the actual voters.

They've completely sucked at running the party for 2 years and have been shown to be hypocrites at several points. I've asked the question before of if the Mises Caucus truly wanted to be successful in running and transforming the party, why did they pick Angela McArdle to be their leader? The only answer I've gotten is "no one else stepped up", which is not a satisfying answer for a caucus completely concerned facially with power to transform. She means well in my opinion (mostly, not always), but the job's just completely above her and I think the people in party power surrounding her are not much help. Mark Rutherford is running for Chair and I hope he wins. There's a reconstruction job that has to occur on the party's finances and he has published a plan for that. For Libertarians, the Chair election is more important than who becomes the presidential nominee just looking forward into the party's future, sustainability and growth.

There are 3 candidates running for Chair: Rutherford, McArdle, and current LNC At-Large member Steven Nekhaila. Nekhaila is Mises so I don't know if that means official Mises abandonment of McArdle or they're going to have 3 candidates, drop down to 2 with the weakest supporting the other in a stop-Rutherford campaign.

For President, I have no idea who's winning, it's not going to be Joshua Smith though. If it's a Mises-strong convention it'll be Rectenwald but I think a lot of the people Mises counted on in Reno are not as fully on-board this time. Dave Smith deciding to not run for President really sucked the air out from them. Mapstead I can see as some sort of compromise then as Mises would be anti-Oliver. Personally talking to Ter Maat, Mapstead, and Oliver, Oliver is the most polished. Hornberger seems to have not caught fire. But it really depends on the delegates and who wins the spots to the National Convention, and to have that level of detailed knowledge you need to be very super-insider Libertarian, the Mises Caucus, or maybe a couple of the presidential campaigns.

[Open Source Intelligence]

RFK Jr.'s campaign says they have gathered enough signatures to get on the ballot in Texas. Texas requires 130,000 signatures for independent candidacies and his campaign says they have over 200,000.

Per Ballot Access News, in a bill that went through the Georgia legislature and was signed by Gov. Kemp, Public Service Commission elections for 2024 were cancelled. The PSC elections were statewide, and Democrats challenged this because they were not regionalized (meaning Democrats could not win Democrat-majority areas if done by district). This will likely be challenged in court because the Georgia State Constitution mandates an election. But the consequences of this if not held is it could mean the Libertarian Party will lose ballot access after 2024. Parties to have ballot access are required to get votes in a statewide race equivalent to 1% of the number of registered voters, which works out to around 1.5% typically. (Oliver is from Georgia and ran for Senate there in 2022, so if he ended up being the presidential nominee, it would help.)

[Redban]

RFK Jr.'s campaign says they have gathered enough signatures to get on the ballot in Texas. Texas requires 130,000 signatures for independent candidacies and his campaign says they have over 200,000.

I don't see this news on his campaign website. I googled "RFK jr Texas," and I don't see anything

is there a source?

if true though, that is big. 130k signatures is a lot by itself, but he wasn't permitted to get signatures from the 3-4 million who voted in the GOP / DEM primaries. It would also mean he collected the signatures with more than 2 weeks to spare, as deadline for Texas is May 13

[Open Source Intelligence]

RFK Jr.'s campaign says they have gathered enough signatures to get on the ballot in Texas. Texas requires 130,000 signatures for independent candidacies and his campaign says they have over 200,000.

I don't see this news on his campaign website. I googled "RFK jr Texas," and I don't see anything

is there a source?

if true though, that is big. 130k signatures is a lot by itself, but he wasn't permitted to get signatures from the 3-4 million who voted in the GOP / DEM primaries. It would also mean he collected the signatures with more than 2 weeks to spare, as deadline for Texas is May 13

It was in this morning's update from RRHElections. Their source is the Twitter account of an Allison Novelo, who is a "2024 campaign embed" working for CBS News. She posted it Wednesday evening.

[The Mikado]

Agreed big if true. Texas is one of the most challenging states for him. If he can get on in TX he should get almost everything. There's a few other hard states (Indiana? California?) but it's a sign he's serious enough to be a realistic contender for 50 state access.