Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[Dr. Cynic]

There will be 3 lower Hosue by-elections on April 28th.  Biden will visit Japan on April 10th.  There is a path where Kishida calls a general election for April 28th gambling that pictures of him and Biden together in the Japanese press will push up his ratings to give him a chance at winning on April 28th.  If he does not then he might face a slow death over the next couple of years before a likely LDP defeat when the general election does come.

By LDP defeat, do you mean a loss of a single party majority but retention of power or a loss of LDP-Komei rule over Japan entirely?

LDP loses single-party majority.  I find it hard to believe LDP-KP can fall below majority.

I have to think that there's a breaking point somewhere for a party where "clean government" is literally in the name.

[Dr. Cynic]

DPP's slogan is "Not Right. Not Left. Upward"


which seems a ripoff of the Simpsons Kang as Bill Clinton's slogan "We must go forward, not backward. Upward, not downward. And always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom."

Considering their increasingly rightward shift, that's pretty rich.

Although "Twirling Towards Freedom" would be a hell of a slogan for a future campaign.

[Dr. Cynic]

It's happening!

[Dr. Cynic]

It's happening!

Do not get your hopes up.  There have been previous CDP surges before only to recede once LDP problems fade into the background.   Overall I sense that a majority of Japanese voters are looking for an excuse to vote LDP.  During periods of LDP turmoil and scandal, they will shy away.  But eventually, most of them do come back.  The big tent faction system in LDP makes it easier to discard those involved in scandals and for new leadership to dissociate themselves from the scandal as time goes on.

Yeah, I know.

[Dr. Cynic]

The latest Asahi PR poll (change from May 2023)

LDP         21 (-15)
KP            5 (--)
DIY           1 (-1)
JRP          14 (-3)
DPP           5 (--)
ARFE         4 (new)  !!!
CDP         14 (+4)
RS            6 (+2)
SDP          1 (--)
JCP           5 (--)

LDP and JRP lose ground to both undecided and the Center-Left parties.  DPP splinter ARFE is at an amazing 4 which is very surprising for a minor and mostly regional new party.

Does Seiji Maehara have much of a personal vote? Could explain why they're polling well.

[Dr. Cynic]

Yes, let it be true!

[Dr. Cynic]

The most likely path forward now is for Kishida not to run for the LDP Prez race (just like Suga in 2021) and then the new LDP leader to call an early Lower House election right after the LDP Prez race.

So in sum this was a giant no confidence vote from the people, in Kishida himself.

Hard to see it as anything but. These results are brutal. I don't think Shimane has ever not been held by the LDP since its creation.

[Dr. Cynic]

Kishida might just pull the trigger for an early election after a reshuffle using the logic that things can only get worse from here.

That would be a bad idea and be putting his own interests ahead of the LDP.  Hopefully, he does not do that.

I hope he does, because I want to see the LDP lose power. I don't think he will, though. I think he's going to hold on as long as he can and hope for a miracle to come so he can call an election before September. I do kind of admire the sheer tenacity with which he's hung onto power.

[Dr. Cynic]

LDP will not be running a candidate in Tokyo Gov election. Koike should easily cruise to a third term.

Smart decision.

They endorsed her last time, too.