Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[jaichind]

There is talk for Tokyo's 15th by-election that the CDP will nominate a sitting CDP PR Upper House MP.    There are also rumors that LDP-TPFA will jointly support 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) to run as an independent. 

乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) was born without arms and legs and is a famous writer whose view leans Right.  He was going to run for LDP in 2016 until it was made public that he was having dozens of affairs behind the back of his wife.   He ran in the 2022 Upper House in Tokyo as an independent coming in 9th place out of a quota of 6.

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20240301-XHIYKLPHORK6TMOTUR3KCTPGPQ/

Key leaders in the former Abe faction are blaming old faction (and dead) leaders Abe and Hosoda for setting up the kickback scheme and are taking no responsibility or knowledge of the scheme.   Dead men tell no tales.

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20240229-OYT1T50144/

KP blasts LDP for the funding scandal and not being about to put the scandal behind LDP.  KP is also skeptical about any snap election saying that LDP-KP alliance has to first regain the trust of the people.  KP clearly trying to distance itself from the scandal.

[jaichind]

It seems that CPJ nominated a candidate in the 島根(Shimane) 1st by-election.  This seat in theory is safe LDP but has a CDP challenger that has good roots here and is a quality candidate against a LDP candidate of lower quality.  CPJ running will hurt the LDP more.

[jaichind]

The latest Asahi PR poll (change from May 2023)

LDP         21 (-15)
KP            5 (--)
DIY           1 (-1)
JRP          14 (-3)
DPP           5 (--)
ARFE         4 (new)  !!!
CDP         14 (+4)
RS            6 (+2)
SDP          1 (--)
JCP           5 (--)

LDP and JRP lose ground to both undecided and the Center-Left parties.  DPP splinter ARFE is at an amazing 4 which is very surprising for a minor and mostly regional new party.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The latest Asahi PR poll (change from May 2023)

LDP         21 (-15)
KP            5 (--)
DIY           1 (-1)
JRP          14 (-3)
DPP           5 (--)
ARFE         4 (new)  !!!
CDP         14 (+4)
RS            6 (+2)
SDP          1 (--)
JCP           5 (--)

LDP and JRP lose ground to both undecided and the Center-Left parties.  DPP splinter ARFE is at an amazing 4 which is very surprising for a minor and mostly regional new party.

That score might be enough for a Kansai PR block seat if replicated in a general election.

[Dr. Cynic]

The latest Asahi PR poll (change from May 2023)

LDP         21 (-15)
KP            5 (--)
DIY           1 (-1)
JRP          14 (-3)
DPP           5 (--)
ARFE         4 (new)  !!!
CDP         14 (+4)
RS            6 (+2)
SDP          1 (--)
JCP           5 (--)

LDP and JRP lose ground to both undecided and the Center-Left parties.  DPP splinter ARFE is at an amazing 4 which is very surprising for a minor and mostly regional new party.

Does Seiji Maehara have much of a personal vote? Could explain why they're polling well.

[jaichind]

The latest Asahi PR poll (change from May 2023)

LDP         21 (-15)
KP            5 (--)
DIY           1 (-1)
JRP          14 (-3)
DPP           5 (--)
ARFE         4 (new)  !!!
CDP         14 (+4)
RS            6 (+2)
SDP          1 (--)
JCP           5 (--)

LDP and JRP lose ground to both undecided and the Center-Left parties.  DPP splinter ARFE is at an amazing 4 which is very surprising for a minor and mostly regional new party.

That score might be enough for a Kansai PR block seat if replicated in a general election.

For sure.  I suspect DIY will win a PR seat out of the Kinki PR bloc.

[jaichind]

The latest Asahi PR poll (change from May 2023)

LDP         21 (-15)
KP            5 (--)
DIY           1 (-1)
JRP          14 (-3)
DPP           5 (--)
ARFE         4 (new)  !!!
CDP         14 (+4)
RS            6 (+2)
SDP          1 (--)
JCP           5 (--)

LDP and JRP lose ground to both undecided and the Center-Left parties.  DPP splinter ARFE is at an amazing 4 which is very surprising for a minor and mostly regional new party.

Does Seiji Maehara have much of a personal vote? Could explain why they're polling well.

He clearly has a personal vote.  Still I think polling at 4 which is similar to DPP's 5 is most likely and outlier.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The latest Asahi PR poll (change from May 2023)

LDP         21 (-15)
KP            5 (--)
DIY           1 (-1)
JRP          14 (-3)
DPP           5 (--)
ARFE         4 (new)  !!!
CDP         14 (+4)
RS            6 (+2)
SDP          1 (--)
JCP           5 (--)

LDP and JRP lose ground to both undecided and the Center-Left parties.  DPP splinter ARFE is at an amazing 4 which is very surprising for a minor and mostly regional new party.

Does Seiji Maehara have much of a personal vote? Could explain why they're polling well.

He clearly has a personal vote.  Still I think polling at 4 which is similar to DPP's 5 is most likely and outlier.

On a sidenote, Seiji Maehara's name is kind of funny to me because the Japanese word for politics is also seiji (政治).

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/shimen/20240303-OYT9T50161/

In the 島根(Shimane) 1st by-election, it seems the local LDP are complaining that when they campaign they have to avoid saying that their candidate is the LDP candidate.  It seems LDP's brand is pretty bad here.

[jaichind]

Flash magazine projection for a June snap election has LDP winning most marginal seats and a single-party majority

LDP          244
KP              22
DIY              2
JRP             57
DPP            10
ARFE            1
CDP          107
RS               6
SDP             1
JCP            10
Ind.             5 (4 opposition, 1 pro-LDP)

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20240305-JTBEBGKOSFEXBGNG7N2MGFIOLI/

CPJ nominates a candidate in the Tokyo 15th by-election.  The candidate is a Right-wing professor focused on Islamic studies.  CPJ is a poor for Tokyo 15th and I expect them to be in the low single digits

[jaichind]

Flash magazine projection for a June snap election has LDP winning most marginal seats and a single-party majority

LDP          244
KP              22
DIY              2
JRP             57
DPP            10
ARFE            1
CDP          107
RS               6
SDP             1
JCP            10
Ind.             5 (4 opposition, 1 pro-LDP)

The projection also came with some seat-by-seat projections for some key marginals.  Frankly, the list is disappointing.  Out of the 49 seats I would call them very competitive, only 12 got covered by this list.  Going by the final result I think the rest mostly went to LDP.  But it would be great if they marked them out one by one.

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20240305/k00/00m/010/293000c

DPP to back CDP in Shimane 1st (against LDP) and Nagasaki 3rd (against JRP)

So it seems the DPP political line is CDP > LDP > JRP since the DPP tried to join the LDP-KP ruling bloc before but after that failed it is back to being in the opposition camp but pro-CDP

DPP splinter ARFE seems to be JRP > CDP > LDP as it split from DPP to take a pro-JRP position

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20240305-VG73ITA56VJOLAD5QG6RA6UVVI/

Sankei reported that the LDP will introduce a new rule that enables it to dismiss or remove Diet members if their staff responsible for accounting are indicted/arrested. I guess this is directed at the Abe faction leaders that seem to refuse to take responsibility over the scandal choosing to blame the accountants

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/d1d7d33fb692025f666e232db4ee22316fc59cb1

KP Secretary General says fall Lower House snap election is highly likely.  I assume it will be before the LDP Prez election so Kishida has some chance of winning the LDP Prez race by winning the Lower House election.

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA2997J0Z20C24A2000000/

Nikkei reports that the LDP may decide to "lose by default" in April's 3 by-elections on the premise that it would be less embarrassing than to contest and lose.

[jaichind]

Latest Kyodo poll pushes Kishida cabinet approval average below 20



Also, LDP support (not PR vote poll) continues to crash while CDP gains a lead over JRP.  Still, CDP party support still being in the single digits does mean as badly as LDP is doing there is still no real alternative to LDP as the ruling party.

[jaichind]

https://newsdig.tbs.co.jp/articles/-/1045498

KP General Secretary says that KP hopes the LDP-KP runs in the next general election NOT under the leadership of Kishida.  He also says that KP prefers the elections to be this year to avoid having the Lower House election take place the same year as the 2025 Upper House and 2025 Tokyo Prefecture elections.

[jaichind]

Open seat 熊本(Kumamoto) governor election two weeks from now on 3/24

LDP-KP is backing the current lieutenant governor as their candidate.  The opposition will likely de facto back the pro-opposition candidate from the last two elections.   The opposition candidate used to be a LDP MLA in the prefecture assembly but has moved over to the opposition camp.   I think the third time run for this opposition candidate has a shot at winning this time given his name recognition. 

[jaichind]

It is very likely that the next Lower House election will see no party above 30% of the PR vote.  That has only happened in the 2000 and 2012 Lower House elections as well as the 1998 Upper House elections.

[jaichind]

Open seat 熊本(Kumamoto) governor election two weeks from now on 3/24

LDP-KP is backing the current lieutenant governor as their candidate.  The opposition will likely de facto back the pro-opposition candidate from the last two elections.   The opposition candidate used to be a LDP MLA in the prefecture assembly but has moved over to the opposition camp.   I think the third time run for this opposition candidate has a shot at winning this time given his name recognition. 

Polling has opposition candidate somewhat behind LDP-KP candidate

[jaichind]

More LDP fundraising scandals
https://twitter.com/kenmoriyasu/status/1766099978810753495

[jaichind]

https://news.tv-asahi.co.jp/news_politics/articles/000341111.html?display=full

CDP is making a push for some seat adjustments with JRP.  This could work on a seat-by-seat basis in rural areas but JRP is determined to make a breakthrough in urban areas outside of Osaka and that will run right into where CDP wants to win seats.