Election models megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 polling averages for key Senate races (change since Oct. 30):

AZ D+2.6 (-1.0)
CO D+9.7 (-1.1)
FL R+7.1 (+0.1)
GA D+0.4 (-0.8 )
IA R+7.2 (+0.1)
NH D+2.8 (-1.3)
NV R+0.6 (+1.0) - flipped again
NC R+3.1 (+0.5)
OH R+2.3 (+0.7)
PA D+0.8 (-0.2)
UT R+9.8 (+2.0)
WA D+6.1 (-1.5)
WI R+4.0 (+0.6)

General movement toward Republicans, but I think the biggest takeaway is that there are a bunch of races within the margin of error.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-polling-error/

Good article that starts from the following:

Since 1998, polls of U.S. Senate elections conducted within three weeks of Election Day have had a weighted-average error of 5.4 percentage points, and polls of U.S. House elections have had a weighted-average error of 6.3 points.

And examines what would happen with uniform errors of that magnitude in both directions.  Summary:

If current poll averages are exactly right: Senate 51R (+1), 49D; House 225R (+12), 210D

Polls underestimate R's by that amount: Senate 54R (+4), 46D; House 259R (+46), 176D

Polls underestimate D's by that amount: Senate 54D (+4), 46R; House 227D (+5), 208R

[Mr.Phips]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-polling-error/

Good article that starts from the following:

Since 1998, polls of U.S. Senate elections conducted within three weeks of Election Day have had a weighted-average error of 5.4 percentage points, and polls of U.S. House elections have had a weighted-average error of 6.3 points.

And examines what would happen with uniform errors of that magnitude in both directions.  Summary:

If current poll averages are exactly right: Senate 51R (+1), 49D; House 225R (+12), 210D

Polls underestimate R's by that amount: Senate 54R (+4), 46D; House 259R (+46), 176D

Polls underestimate D's by that amount: Senate 54D (+4), 46R; House 227D (+5), 208R

I think the yardstick for the House in 2014.  If Dems fall below 188 there, which they hit in 2014, they need to get rid of their entire leadership.

[iceman]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-polling-error/

Good article that starts from the following:

Since 1998, polls of U.S. Senate elections conducted within three weeks of Election Day have had a weighted-average error of 5.4 percentage points, and polls of U.S. House elections have had a weighted-average error of 6.3 points.

And examines what would happen with uniform errors of that magnitude in both directions.  Summary:

If current poll averages are exactly right: Senate 51R (+1), 49D; House 225R (+12), 210D

Polls underestimate R's by that amount: Senate 54R (+4), 46D; House 259R (+46), 176D

Polls underestimate D's by that amount: Senate 54D (+4), 46R; House 227D (+5), 208R

I think the yardstick for the House in 2014.  If Dems fall below 188 there, which they hit in 2014, they need to get rid of their entire leadership.

They should rid first the dinosaurs in their party like Pelosi and Dianne Feinstein and give way to younger breed of politicians.

[Devils30]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-polling-error/

Good article that starts from the following:

Since 1998, polls of U.S. Senate elections conducted within three weeks of Election Day have had a weighted-average error of 5.4 percentage points, and polls of U.S. House elections have had a weighted-average error of 6.3 points.

And examines what would happen with uniform errors of that magnitude in both directions.  Summary:

If current poll averages are exactly right: Senate 51R (+1), 49D; House 225R (+12), 210D

Polls underestimate R's by that amount: Senate 54R (+4), 46D; House 259R (+46), 176D

Polls underestimate D's by that amount: Senate 54D (+4), 46R; House 227D (+5), 208R

I think the yardstick for the House in 2014.  If Dems fall below 188 there, which they hit in 2014, they need to get rid of their entire leadership.

It needs to happen win or lose. That said I don't think Dems lose 34 seats. There are way too many fortified Biden +8 or more seats that I think will be just out of reach for the GOP- especially in IL, NJ, CA.

[Alben Barkley]

How come you didn’t just put this one in the model thread but did my article from Silver which was about more than the model in a way this isn’t?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It seems to be harder and harder to poll accurately these days. I have no idea what will happen on election day, but if I had a gun to my head, I would say the Republicans are going to outperform their polling.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How come you didn’t just put this one in the model thread but did my article from Silver which was about more than the model in a way this isn’t?

TBH I didn't think about it, but this should reasonably be there too.  I'll merge it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's the counterpoint to Nate Silver's case for a Republican wave that was published a couple days ago:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-a-democratic-surprise-on-election-night/

[here2view]

Find it hard to believe that CCM and Warnock both have the same odds right now (42%)

[bagelman]

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/eqKe165

Above is a simple house map based on the 538 polling error article. There's only one true 50/50 seat (TX-34).

Nathan Redd and Nathan Bleu both seem like very wealthy people. The only predictions I can make is that Redd thinks NY-GOV will flip and Dr. Oz will "hold" PA (flip to AKP and caucus with Republicans). I imagine that Bleu would probably say that KS-GOV will hold, but it seems clear he's less confident than Redd.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current models with change from last update (Nov. 3). 


Senate D chances (most to least):

538 Lite 53 (-3)
538 Classic 51 (-3)
JHK 45.6 (-1.2)
538 Deluxe 45 (-2)
Economist 45 (-1)
DDHQ 44.5 (-3.1)


House R chances (most to least):

JHK 93.0 (+0.1)
538 Deluxe 84 (-1)
538 Classic 84 (nc)
DDHQ 79.1 (-1.3)
Economist 77 (-1)
538 Lite 76 (-1)


Democrats slide a bit further in the Senate, which now looks like a Tilt R consensus, while they improve by a hair in the House.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 polling averages for key Senate races (change since Nov. 3):

AZ D+1.9 (-0.7)
CO D+9.7 (nc)
FL R+7.6 (+0.5)
GA R+0.1 (+0.5) - flipped
IA R+7.2 (nc)
NH D+3.2 (+0.4)
NV R+0.6 (nc)
NC R+3.8 (+0.7)
OH R+3.9 (+1.6)
PA D+0.4 (-0.4)
UT R+9.8 (nc)
WA D+6.1 (nc)
WI R+3.8 (+0.2)

No change or minor improvements for Republicans, except in NH.  The GA average strongly suggests a runoff coming.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1589255493020979203

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1589255493020979203

Explain this for us dumb people, GM. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1589255493020979203

Explain this for us dumb people, GM. 

Cohn, among others, was raising a warning flag in September when the Democrats were at their polling peak that Democrats were polling above expectations in precisely the areas where polls overestimated Democrats in 2020 -- so if the nonresponse problem still existed, that's exactly where you'd expect it to happen.  In short, the strong Democratic polling at that time was an illusion (in most places).

Now the disparity is no longer there, so the polls now look in line with expectations in most places; that is, Democrats are probably not overperforming expectations due to nonresponse now.  (They could of course be overperforming -- or underperforming -- for other reasons).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1589613622241947649

[Ferguson97]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1589613622241947649

With such a wide margin of error, I think that barely qualifies as a prediction.

I'm pretty sure any random shmuck off the street could tell you that Ohio will probably be somewhere between a very comfortable Vance victory and a squeaker for Ryan.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1589255493020979203

Explain this for us dumb people, GM. 

It's cope.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1589255493020979203

Explain this for us dumb people, GM. 

The polls from people who aren’t right-wing propagandists might be right.

[Torie]

For the Senate, suddenly 538 moved a full 3 points in the last hour or two, to 58-42 odds that the Pubs get 51 or more seats. It appears to be primarily driven by Oz's odds of winning by a substantially higher percentage, and Walker in GA, even as Laxalt fades a bit - the spirit of Ralston effect.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

For the Senate, suddenly 538 moved a full 3 points in the last hour or two, to 58-42 odds that the Pubs get 51 or more seats. It appears to be primarily driven by Oz's odds of winning by a substantially higher percentage, and Walker in GA, even as Laxalt fades a bit - the spirit of Ralston effect.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

Yeah that’s super weird.  Fetterman just dropped 10 points based on I have no idea what.

Edit: Actually I have a pretty good idea what it is….Fetterman actually rose slightly in the “Classic” model; he only dropped in Deluxe.  

So it must be all based on Sabato picking Oz in his final predictions.  Also explains the bump for Walker, Kelly, and CCM.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Final update!  Current models with change from last update (Nov. 5).


Senate D chances (most to least):

Race to the WH 50.3 (new)
538 Lite 50 (-3)
538 Classic 49 (-2)
JHK 46.3 (+0.7)
Economist 43 (-2)
538 Deluxe 41 (-4)
DDHQ 40.7 (-3.8 )


House R chances (most to least):

JHK 94.2 (+1.2)
538 Deluxe 84 (nc)
538 Classic 82 (-2)
DDHQ 79.7 (+0.6)
Economist 77 (nc)
538 Lite 75 (-1)
Race to the WH 66.9 (new)

Consensus: Tossup/Tilt R Senate, Likely R House

[GeorgiaModerate]

Final update! 538 polling averages for key Senate races (change since Nov. 5):

AZ D+1.5 (-0.4)
CO D+8.4 (-1.3)
FL R+8.8 (+1.2)
GA R+1.0 (+0.9)
IA R+9.6 (+2.4)
NH D+2.2 (+1.0)
NV R+1.4 (+0.8 )
NC R+4.3 (+0.5)
OH R+6.2 (+2.3)
PA R+0.5 (+0.9) - flipped
UT R+9.8 (nc)
WA D+4.7 (-1.4)
WI R+3.3 (+0.5)

Still a lot of races within the margin of error, but there's no question that Republicans are happier with these numbers than Democrats.

[SCNCmod]

How is Internal polling, by campaign, any different than regular commercial polling? If at all?

sometimes, there seems to be a connotation that internal polling is more accurate- which does not make logical sense to me... as i would think if internal pollsters found some secret to success- surely commercial pollster would be able to discover or acquire the same.