French presidential election, 2022

[Antonio the Sixth]

I am really not looking forward to this election. It sure looks like we're headed for a ing FBM/Panzergirl rematch, even though most French people rightfully despise both of these clowns. The best hope might honestly be someone like Bertrand, although I fully expect him to default to the same toxic mix of outdated neoliberalism and cynical pandering to normalized islamophobia that's worked so well for FBM so far. But oh well. Of course I'll try to follow this closely.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I am really not looking forward to this election. It sure looks like we're headed for a ing FBM/Panzergirl rematch, even though most French people rightfully despise both of these clowns. The best hope might honestly be someone like Bertrand, although I fully expect him to default to the same toxic mix of outdated neoliberalism and cynical pandering to normalized islamophobia that's worked so well for FBM so far. But oh well. Of course I'll try to follow this closely.

I wouldn't be so pessimistic as you. It is almost impossible to undo left-wing policies and reduce the size of the State (particularly in France ). Even Mrs Thatcher barely managed to do so over eleven years. As for "normalised islamophobia" (which I too find unpleasant), this will continue so long as we believe in representative democracy and the French feel there is a problem with Islam in France. I do not know how to solve that - and I don't think this sort of thing helps - but I do think it reflects very real concerns. Is this not democracy at work? Plus, there'll be at least one left-wing candidate to your taste

Oh, I'll vote for Jadot or whomever else the best-positioned left-leaning candidate ends up being. It's not like I can be particularly demanding right now.

The "it's democracy" retort is a vacuous platitude though. Of course I believe in democracy, and people have a right to vote for bad policies if they want to, but that doesn't make those policies any less contemptible.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The "it's democracy" retort is a vacuous platitude though. Of course I believe in democracy, and people have a right to vote for bad policies if they want to, but that doesn't make those policies any less contemptible.

It's not a defence of the policy or rhetoric on its merits, but surely politicians are to a certain extent bound by public opinion? If people cannot express their feelings through democratic channels, they will end up doing so through far worse forms. As it happens, I'm convinced that the cultural conservatism and French leftism are inextricably bound, and the solution is some good old Anglo-Saxon ultraliberalism

Hahahahahahaha. Right, Because "Anglo-Saxon ultraliberalism" has worked so well at forestalling populist xenophobia. You certainly don't find any of that in the parties of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan!

And again, you're not saying anything meaningful here. Of course people can vote for xenophobic politicians if they want to. That doesn't make xenophobic politicians any less reprehensible.

Really? I mean, Jadot is the worst sort of left - elitist, shallow and without a single social fibre in his body. Considering that the left seems to determined to go into this election more fractured than ever, and has essentially no chance of getting a candidate to the second round, I would imagine this would be the time to go with a values vote in the hopes of the better leftist factions getting an at least comparatively better score.

Although, in that respect, all the likely mainstream left candidates are dreadful. So ymmv in any case

I guess it'll depend on how blackpilled I am on the Left's chances come April 10. If I think there's any chance of qualifying for the runoff, I'll vote for whoever can make that happen (possibly even ing Mélenchon). Otherwise, sure, I might as well throw out my vote to the least awful candidate. At this stage I have no idea who that might be, though. In general, though, keep in mind that my standards for French politicians are very low at this point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh my f**king God

what did Zemmour say about the Dreyfus affair? Do I even want to know? Probably not

[Antonio the Sixth]

f**king kill me now

[Antonio the Sixth]

ughhhh, what a horrible choice. Ciotti is a far-right ghoul and Pécresse has been the bane of the area where I grew up for many decades. She's on paper more "presentable", but in practice she's a cynical creep who'd do anything for power.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yep. One more candidate is exactly what the left needed to have any relevance in this election. Thanks a lot Christiane.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's very hard to have a favorite candidate in this election.
There are Macron, the far-right candidates, and the best performing left-wing candidate, Melenchon, supported protests against the vaccine pass.

#HidalgoOrBust

[Antonio the Sixth]

Might be shooting this off a bit early, but Méluche does seem to have established a slightly bigger gap in terms of being the best polling candidate of the left in recent weeks. Certainly more so than back in the Autumn when Jadot looked close to drawing even. Yannick seems to be faltering a bit at the moment, not at Hidalgo levels, but not great.

That makes it especially pathetic that he refuses to participate in a left primary, given that he'd probably win it easily. I would happily vote for him if he beat Hidalgo and others fair and square.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Those who think American politics boring because there are only 2 major parties would like French politics. There is a big menu of political parties and ideologies.

And yet people keep voting for the same sh*t

[Antonio the Sixth]

Unless she has a really good plan to turn things around very quickly, then I really don't see the point in Hidalgo staying in the race. Doing so otherwise will - unless we're seeing a serious case of polling failure - only further damage her image and that of the remnants of her party. She was always a curious choice of candidate given the general field: given that Macron is the incumbent and that there was always going to be a Green candidate, what exactly is the purpose of her candidacy? Other sorts of PS politician could maybe justify themselves under these circumstances, but not her sort. There's no room.

I hate to say this as someone who genuinely respects her, but I agree. She should just drop out at this point. Spare herself (and all of us) the embarrassment.

[Antonio the Sixth]

More and more, people are recognizing that Emmanuel Macron is, mostly by default, the best president of the Fifth Republic.

He really isn't (and if you asked French people about it in a poll they'd clearly tell you that), but what he is is better than any of the candidates who have any shot of qualifying for the runoff.

[Antonio the Sixth]

More and more, people are recognizing that Emmanuel Macron is, mostly by default, the best president of the Fifth Republic.

He really isn't (and if you asked French people about it in a poll they'd clearly tell you that), but what he is is better than any of the candidates who have any shot of qualifying for the runoff.

Genuine question. Who the French would say was the best President? I doubt Hollande, Sarko or Chirac would feature there.

That would have to be Mitterrand, however unsavory he was personally.

[Antonio the Sixth]

More and more, people are recognizing that Emmanuel Macron is, mostly by default, the best president of the Fifth Republic.

He really isn't (and if you asked French people about it in a poll they'd clearly tell you that), but what he is is better than any of the candidates who have any shot of qualifying for the runoff.

Genuine question. Who the French would say was the best President? I doubt Hollande, Sarko or Chirac would feature there.

That would have to be Mitterrand, however unsavory he was personally.

Wouldn't a lot of people say DeGaulle was the best President of the 5th republic?

Yes, sorry - either De Gaulle or Mitterrand. I ended up giving my personal take but if you'd ask French people I guess a plurality (majority?) would probably pick De Gaulle.

Chirac would also probably come higher than many, honestly. He's become the symbol of a more peaceful and innocent time in French politics, which is pretty hilarious given his own history but honestly not entirely undeserved given what came after.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How is the presidency of Valery Giscard d'Estaing viewed retrospectively?

It's largely... not remembered, honestly. The more historically aware people will remember as that time France legalized abortion and a bunch of other things, but even that isn't super present in public consciousness. And having lost reelection kind of condemns him to a weird spot when it comes to public memory, a problem that even Chirac, with his really paltry and ugly 2002 reelection, managed to avoid.

Let's really hope Le Pen can pull this off.

Keep these kinds of highly insightful contributions to the appropriate boards, please.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/FraserJMcQueen/status/1510691196259155977

"Society of spectacle" has entered common parlance in French for decades. I knew the phrase long before I knew about Debord.

[Antonio the Sixth]

French far-right leader Le Pen softens image for election
French nationalist Marine Le Pen has softened her rhetoric and her image as she tries to unseat centrist President Emmanuel Macron in the upcoming election, taking place in two rounds on April 10 and 24

Macron has moved so far to the right that he might be to Le Pen's right at this point.

Is this hyperbole or do we have concrete examples?

It is hyperbole, although it's true that the difference between the RN and supposedly "respectable" parties has never been so slight.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What are Le Pen’s economic policies these days? Would she be considered to Macron’s left economically, or is there still a Poujadist streak that is more populist/all things to all people?

It's incoherent nonsense, by and large. She does the standard "raise people's salaries by cutting into social contributions (and please don't worry about gutting the already thin welfare state as a result)" sh*t that's become insanely popular among politicians these past decades among people who want to pretend to be #populist but don't want to do actual redistribution.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm guessing that there will be a panic stage followed by a "front républicain" effect that will lead some leftists who would otherwise have abstained to rally to Macron. Probably significantly less than in 2017, though.

I hope to God that the 2027 runoff will be something other than "preppy neoliberal vs far-right demagogue" though. If we keep going this way there's a real chance France might fall.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I know everyone has already moved on to fretting about the second round results, but I will save that for next week. Right now I'd like to say a few words on the candidates who are running to this first round and my choice.

I've decided to vote for Jadot. I'm not particularly thrilled with him, and my heart is still with Hidalgo, but their programs and priorities are ultimately pretty similar. They both believe in redistribution, on taking drastic action, and on unequivocally standing up to Russian aggression (more on that later). They are the only two candidates who fulfill all three of these non-negotiable criteria to my satisfaction (Roussel comes close, but I don't trust him entirely on the last point). But ultimately, Jadot is polling at 5% and Hidalgo is polling at 2%. I guess I want to do a mini-tactical vote and promote a candidate who has some chance of representing an alternative to Mélenchon on the left. The 5% threshold isn't just symbolic, either: it's the threshold for having your campaign expenses reimbursed. If Jadot crosses it, EELV will have a better shot at remaining a viable party. The PS has already lost this shot, and frankly, at some point they have to take responsibility for their sh**tty electoral results. It wouldn't have taken much to convince me to vote for Hidalgo, but if she's polling that low she must be doing something wrong. I still have a lot of respect for her, and I hope she goes back to being a great mayor of Paris - but boy what an embarrassing run.

After those two, I guess my third choice would have to be Roussel. There's something about his campaign that's deeply grating (all the emphasis on his quips is so transparently fake), but there's a lot to love about his platform. And, unlike the other NATO-skeptic leftists, he's actually admitted that he wouldn't pursue exiting NATO now because he understands the importance of being united in support of Ukraine. I have respect for that, and that's why I'm willing to take him seriously, unlike any of the other left-wing candidate.

If none of those three make it to the runoff (and obviously they won't), I would then have to vote for Macron over any of the other 8 candidates. This probably comes as a shock (it came as a shock to myself when I really thought it through), but it is, in my opinion, the only morally serious choice of someone who takes France's role in Europe and in the world seriously. I want to delve on that a bit more, because this is a fundamental shift in how I used to view things, and probably stands out from many of my fellow leftists' view on the matter. I had a discussion about it with Parochial Boy recently, but I don't think I've said all that was on my mind then.

All my life, I've put redistribution on top of my priorities. I still believe it is fundamentally the only tool capable of making capitalism a system worth living under and provide the basic level of dignity any human being is entitled in. That hasn't changed. FBM has deeply damaged it, continuing the work Sarkozy left off (and Flamby barely interrupted) of some-f**king-how giving France its Thatcherite revolution 3-4 decades later. It's destroying the fabric of French society, and directly feeding into the rise of fascism in France. I can basically sign off to everything PB has been saying about Macron for five years, and I've said much of the same thing myself.

This is the first time when I don't think this attitude is tenable any longer. I am actually willing to let France's social fabric be torn some more, if it means that the Ukrainian people have a better chance to defend themselves - if it means throughout Eastern Europe, people can have the confidence that we Westerners will have their back when they stand up to Russia. I've always political instincts on foreign policy that clashed with most of the left (on Israel, on humanitarian intervention in general, increasingly on the EU). I've never been shy about them, but I've also generally tried to put them aside to focus on what I thought really mattered - we all want massive wealth redistribution. Frankly, In retrospect, I think that attitude was a mistake even before February 24 (most working-class people aren't French, after all, and their lives are impacted by foreign policy decisions rather than by domestic social policy). But now, it's downright immoral.

What we are facing now is bigger than any social spending cut: it is a direct, frontal attack on all the values the left supposedly cares for: democracy, self-determination, freedom from ethnic and political persecution, you name it. I hope no one doubts I care deeply about the French working class - I hope I've demonstrated that throughout the year. But however bad life will be for the French working class under Macron, they are not going to have their houses bombed. They're not going to see their loved ones torn to pieces. They're not going to see their entire villages massacred. They're not going to see parts of their lands taken over and ruled by a foreign power that wants them compliant, speaking a given language, voting a given way, and that might quietly disappear them if they aren't. Putting redistribution ahead of this feels frankly obscene. And I'm only talking about how Ukraine is affected - but of course, this is not just about Ukraine. Ultimately, the fate of all of Europe is being settled there. People might say that even if Ukraine falls, Putin will never be crazy enough to attack NATO directly, but at this point, any premise that starts with "Putin will never be crazy enough to" has to be taken with extreme suspicion. And even if he doesn't invade militarily, we all know he has other ways of corrupting European democracies from the inside. He's been far more successful at that game than on the military front. And if he's met with anything but dogged resistance, he will encroach further. There is no doubt about it.

Now, Mélenchon was buddy-buddy with Putin and other foreign dictators for a while. He talks about the EU as a nuisance and actively wants to get out of NATO. The consequences of having someone like that in charge of the EU's largest military power would be catastrophic. Diplomatically, it would be almost as bad as Le Pen winning. I don't give a sh*t about his plan to soak the rich and raise the minimum wage, if his diplomatic stance is going to get more Ukrainian children killed. This is the choice I have right here. It's a rotten f**king choice, but it is one whose moral implications are clear. The same goes for Poutou and Arthaud, to a lesser extent. They're not Putin apologists, that much I can give them. But at the end of the day, their foreign policy would also embolden Putin (maybe even more so, since they might go even farther against the EU). Same with the undeniably iconic Lassalle, with the loathsome worm NDA, or with the two fascists who don't even bear naming. And as for Pécresse, I'm sure she wouldn't take us out of NATO or the EU, but she might still be friendlier toward Russia given her party's ties - not to mention she'd pummel the working class even worse than Macron.

Okay, I'm done. I guess it's not usual to spend more time defending my fourth choice than the previous three, but I had to defend this decision, if to no one else, at least to myself.

TL;DR: Jadot > Hidalgo > Roussel > Macron > Everyone else. It sucks but it's true.

[Antonio the Sixth]

These "secret exit polls" are usually worthless and might actually be people just pulling numbers out of their ass. It's possible they get it right, of course, but if so it's probably just because they read the trend right.

Instead of speculating about fantasy numbers, here's a simple arithmetic mean of the final polls of all polling firms since Monday (counted Ipsos and Ipsos-Sopra-Steria separately, no idea if that makes sense but I guess it increases the sample size):

Macron 26.4%
Le Pen 23%
Mélenchon 17.1%
Zemmour 9.7%
Pécresse 7.9%
Jadot 4.8%
Roussel 2.6%
Lassalle 2.5%
Dupont-Aignan 2.2%
Hidalgo 2.1%
Poutou 1%
Arthaud 0.6%

These are the benchmarks I'll be having in mind when I look at the 20:00 results, although trends are also worth considering (+ for Le Pen and Mélenchon, - for Macron, Zemmour and Pécresse).

[Antonio the Sixth]

The leaked exit poll from the belgian newspaper was actually fairly good though. It had Macron 24%, Le Pen 22%, Fillon 20,5% and Melenchón 18% in 2017.

Yeah, but so were pre-election polls. So it's really not hard to extrapolate from them and come up with plausible results. The great unacknowledged truth about French politics is that French polls are very good by international standards.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Will there be any live stream for exit polls/results?

https://www.france.tv/france-2/direct.html

This is the one I'm watching. There are a bunch of others.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, interesting results. Le Pen is basically where the polls expected her. Both Macron and Mélenchon overperformed, while Pécresse and Zemmour underperformed. To the extent that there was any last-minute shift, it seems like it might have been among center-right Pécresse voters coming over to Macron to stop Le Pen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a page where the results will be updated?

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/index.html

This is supposed to have national results, but right now it's only displaying them by Department.