2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[EJ24]

FLORIDA


5,210,532 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,262,736 (43.4%)
Republican: 1,873,912 (36.0%)
NPA/Other: 1,073,884 (20.6%)

Dem lead decreases to 388,824

~504,920 ballots were processed today

All I see is things speeding up for both parties. From this thread you would think Trump would win by 5% 2004 style

I think the bigger concern in Florida is that election day turnout will be 60-40 in favor of GOP, which might be enough to put them over the top if they hang with Dems in early vote.

However, people are forgetting the NPA vote, which if we believe polls, probably benefits Biden at least slightly.

[EJ24]

To be honest, it's hard not to get excited/confident about Texas. If they are already at 71% of the TOTAL 2016 vote, and we know early vote favors Dems, I think it's gonna a pretty tall order for Republicans to totally erase that.

If early turnout matched 2016 and Dems had the advantage, that's one thing. But this, combined with the changing demographics of the state. I can't help it, I'm feeling really optimistic.

[EJ24]

The NPA's in Florida will decide the winner.

They are voting by mail by a 2:1 margin.

That is very interesting, and likely very good for Mr. Biden.

STOP THE BEDWETTING OVER BUZZ AND JESSICA'S CHERRYPICKED TWEETS.

[EJ24]

The following Texas counties have eclipsed their 2016 early vote totals

Harris          1,020,885   (977,279)
Dallas             563,148   (549,643)
Travis             399,954   (377,685)
Collin             333,514   (301,939)
Denton          283,253   (239,954)
Fort Bend       225,171   (213,567)
Williamson     193,856   (162,558)
El Paso          158,017   (150,446)
Montgomery  151,244   (156,818)
Galveston      102,655   (101,488)
Nueces            80,454    (74,844)
Cameron         68,504    (64,239)

And these are the counties that will likely beat it this weekend:

Tarrant         482,640   (515,230)
Bexar           466,948   (471,908)
Hidalgo        130,747   (139,833)

All that suburban vote. Absolutely delicious.

[EJ24]

Oh my god. The Florida discussion in here is a flaming hot mess and is getting so ridiculous.

Bottom line is, we have no idea who is turning out to vote and who is going to come out on Election Day. People keep saying the Election Day vote will be huge GOP, but it's completely possible they are also cannibalizing their election day voters right now with in-person early vote. We just don't know.

Also, NPAs are going to likely favor Biden, and no one seems to be taking that into account.

It's primarily because of two posters here, who are cherrypicking data they like and posting it all throughout the thread, you have one in particular who will be forced into Atlas exile when Biden wins Florida, which I'm personally excited about but since he's a member of the Trump cult I'm sure he has no problem with pathalogically lying, so I don't expect him to actually leave.

[EJ24]

Oh my god. The Florida discussion in here is a flaming hot mess and is getting so ridiculous.

Bottom line is, we have no idea who is turning out to vote and who is going to come out on Election Day. People keep saying the Election Day vote will be huge GOP, but it's completely possible they are also cannibalizing their election day voters right now with in-person early vote. We just don't know.

Also, NPAs are going to likely favor Biden, and no one seems to be taking that into account.

It's primarily because of two posters here, who are cherrypicking data they like and posting it all throughout the thread, you have one in particular who will be forced into Atlas exile when Biden wins Florida, which I'm personally excited about but since he's a member of the Trump cult I'm sure he has no problem with pathalogically lying, so I don't expect him to actually leave.

@ me bruh.  Also no cherrypicking, posting real data as it comes out throughout the day.  Cry more!

LOL right, it's not cherrypicking, it's just a convenient coincidence that everything you post leaves out mail-in votes that show a large DEM advantage.

Everybody would be better served putting Buzz, Jessica, and Single Issue Covid voter on ignore, they add nothing valuable to this discussion, and you'll see their true colors shortly after the election. I'm sure Buzz will call for the repeal of the Votings Rights Act because those "other" people didn't vote the "correct" way.

[EJ24]

A lot of conservatives on Election Twitter really seem to believe the data and the environment are pointing to a Trump victory.

As every Democrat says, Trump could still win, but it's not because that's what the evidence now shows is likely to happen.

This is really bad because if Biden ends up winning Big on election night
they are now going to think the election was stolen from them beacue they though the early voter number show them that trump going to win and trump himself is most likely going to say the same thing

Trump will claim that he was going great during early voting but biden somehow stole the election from him

That's been the plan this entire election. Convince his base that a loss is literally impossible.

Look at the blue avatars on this site. I promise you none of them will accept the result if Biden wins.

[EJ24]

For the final time:

NPA's in Florida skew younger, more diverse, and a lot of them are self-identified independents.

They are thought to be breaking for Biden.

The fact that they are voting by mail by a 2-1 margin indicates they *probably* lean Biden.

Youth turnout is already much higher than 2016, so if anybody in Florida should be dooming, it's the GOP for this reason alone.

[EJ24]

It just is not possible that a breakdown of 40D, 30R, 30 other gives results of 61 Biden, 36 trump, 2 third party.

Prove it.

Because that seems completely plausible based on what we've seen from polling independents.

[EJ24]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320428209125629953

[EJ24]

Wow! Could Biden still have a slim chance in Florida?
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320515676520566790?s=21

*clears throat*

OOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHH YEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

[EJ24]

Massive PA update:

Dems 1,193,887 (69.7%)
Reps 355,317 (20.8%)
Other 162,813 (9.5%)

Democrats have returned 63% of their ballots. Reps only 47%. Dems lead on Friday was +730K. It is now +839K.

PA, AZ, and TX all looking really impressive for Biden.

[EJ24]

So the 600k VBM Target has been hit. What’s the talking point now?

They just won't post that. They will cherrypick the in person vote lead as if that's the only metric.

[EJ24]

https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1320797788238696448?s=21 so people will quit complaining about me not posting VBM

Just playing with these numbers a little bit, I decided to be a little generous to Trump and give him 7.3% of registered Dems and only give Biden 4.2% of registered Republicans.

That shakes out to
Dems to Trump 191,543
GOP to Biden 96,805

Which gives you a total of

Biden 2,432,334
Trump 2,208,092

And this is without factoring in NPA's.

[EJ24]

https://twitter.com/TrustThePete/status/1320919808431525890

[EJ24]

https://twitter.com/TrustThePete/status/1320919808431525890

Is this just some random person? lol

actually just read through his profile, very biased Biden supporter...

This coming from somebody who thinks Florida is safe R because of your feels.

[EJ24]

https://twitter.com/TrustThePete/status/1320919808431525890

Is this just some random person? lol

actually just read through his profile, very biased Biden supporter...

This coming from somebody who thinks Florida is safe R because of your feels.

I simply asked you a question, you're the one deflecting to off topics.

It is 100% anecdotal.

[EJ24]

https://twitter.com/TrustThePete/status/1320919808431525890

Is this just some random person? lol

actually just read through his profile, very biased Biden supporter...

This coming from somebody who thinks Florida is safe R because of your feels.

I simply asked you a question, you're the one deflecting to off topics.

Philly guy here. I can tell you that the Delco became Democrat controlled for the first time since the 19th Century in 2019. I have every reason to believe that suburbs will trend hard for Biden. Trump might do well in Bucks County but that's not a surprise.

ArEnT yOu JuSt SoMe RaNdOm GuY?? BiAsEd ToWaRdS BiDeN LoL

[EJ24]

Every single post in here on the last 3 pages suggests this is going to be a Biden landslide.  Still we are all pooping our pants because of 2016 and the fact that there is a conceivable path for Trump.  But no-one should be surprised if Biden wins the popular vote by the biggest vote margin ever. 

I think I may have said this before, but the fact that so many Democrats are pooping their pants and petrified of another 2016 is exactly why the landslide is going to happen. That was just an unbelievable motivator.

[EJ24]

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https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323032257355984896

Souls to the pooooollllllsssss

[EJ24]

What I am optimistic about in Florida, if you look into the numbers, more independents voted by mail rather than voted early in person.  This tells me that on balance they were worried about coronavirus, which tells me they are probably leaning Biden by a fair amount. 

Right now Trump probably still needs excellent turnout on Election Day and I'm not sure it's there for him.  They reported that at the Florida rally tonight Trump asked people if they had already voted and almost everyone in the crowd raised their hand.  There is a very real possibility that Democrats keep pace with Republicans in Florida when all is said and done and then it comes down to Independents.  I'd rather be Biden in that scenario.

C A N N I B A L I Z I N G

[EJ24]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323338456437850114

Dem vote by mail lead increasing by the hour now.

[EJ24]

Here's the full Jen O'Malley Dillon video from today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j03BNEV_cuI

She sounds pretty confident in WI, NC, and AZ.

That alone + Hillary's 2016 states gets Biden to 268.

[EJ24]

https://twitter.com/AndrewBond3/status/1323436790351474688

Won't Election Day flip this though? Or am I paranoid?

You're paranoid about literally everything.