TX PPP/Democracy Toolbox (D): Biden +1 (4/27-28)

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over-under on if Computer has a bigger metlldown than French Republican?

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I don't expect Biden to win Texas,  but if Trump is only winning the state by around 4-5% or so, that's a pretty worrying sign for Republicans come 2024.    

Republicans should dread the day Texas becomes a full blown swing state.

I don’t understand why people think that if Biden can’t flip Texas or Georgia this year, he would in 2024 when he’s an incumbent President. Incumbent Presidents don’t have a great track record of late of building significantly on their coalitions. Clinton and Bush only flipped states that barely went against them in their first election

If Biden wins this year but fails to flip GA/TX, we probably have to wait until the next Democratic President wins for them to flip, which could be 2028 or 2032

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Conservatism is intellectually and morally bankrupt nowadays, so I don’t know why the death of it would distress anyone outside the GOP consulting class. Not that liberalism isn’t also intellectually dead, though

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Conservatism is intellectually and morally bankrupt nowadays, so I don’t know why the death of it would distress anyone outside the GOP consulting class. Not that liberalism isn’t also intellectually dead, though

Im a conservative and no its not intellectually bankrupt. Most conservative economic policies come from the Chicago School of Economics which is run by intellectuals. Its not morally bankrupt either

As for Conservatism leadership yah having Bush/Cheney be its leaders in the 2000s was not good but that's cause they were incompetent not cause conservatism is what failed in the 2000s

Roger that, Grammar School Republican

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Conservatism is intellectually and morally bankrupt nowadays, so I don’t know why the death of it would distress anyone outside the GOP consulting class. Not that liberalism isn’t also intellectually dead, though

Im a conservative and no its not intellectually bankrupt. Most conservative economic policies come from the Chicago School of Economics which is run by intellectuals. Its not morally bankrupt either

As for Conservatism leadership yah having Bush/Cheney be its leaders in the 2000s was not good but that's cause they were incompetent not cause conservatism is what failed in the 2000s

The Intelligent Right has gone from William F. Buckley, George Will, and the Weekly Standard to Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and Brietbart/OAN. If it's not dead, it's on life support.

That is not what the intellectual right is and even the earlier names are really not the intellectual right.


The intellectual right are the people who make up the think tanks so in this case its mainly ideas and people from the Chicago School of Economics . The think tanks are the ones who write legislative policies not any of the names you mentioned .

Also George Will is so right wing he thinks Marco Rubio is against capitalism: https://www.unionleader.com/opinion/columnists/george-will-marco-rubio-joins-the-anti-capitalist-conservatives/article_ee972176-3171-579c-9aa4-6e417c03c783.html

Then the intellectual right is even more stupid than the twitter conservatives.

People in the Chicago School of Economics have PHDs

Rob DeSantis has a Harvard Law degree and couldn’t figure out how to put a mask on.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Conservatism is intellectually and morally bankrupt nowadays, so I don’t know why the death of it would distress anyone outside the GOP consulting class. Not that liberalism isn’t also intellectually dead, though

Im a conservative and no its not intellectually bankrupt. Most conservative economic policies come from the Chicago School of Economics which is run by intellectuals. Its not morally bankrupt either

As for Conservatism leadership yah having Bush/Cheney be its leaders in the 2000s was not good but that's cause they were incompetent not cause conservatism is what failed in the 2000s

The Intelligent Right has gone from William F. Buckley, George Will, and the Weekly Standard to Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and Brietbart/OAN. If it's not dead, it's on life support.

That is not what the intellectual right is and even the earlier names are really not the intellectual right.


The intellectual right are the people who make up the think tanks so in this case its mainly ideas and people from the Chicago School of Economics . The think tanks are the ones who write legislative policies not any of the names you mentioned .

Also George Will is so right wing he thinks Marco Rubio is against capitalism: https://www.unionleader.com/opinion/columnists/george-will-marco-rubio-joins-the-anti-capitalist-conservatives/article_ee972176-3171-579c-9aa4-6e417c03c783.html

You do realize that the political right, as an intellectual tradition, is about more than just free-market economics and, sometimes, doesn't even include that, yes?

You’re trying to reason with a guy who thinks Art Laffer is an economic genius

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But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

Lol you do realize Texas will be close, right? Sure, Trump will win but it will be by about 2-4 points.

I see anywhere from Trump +5 to Biden +2 as in the realm of possibility. If I had to guess, Trump +1-2 sounds like a good guess, but if Republicans want to take it for granted and get blindsided, then by all means

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

Lol you do realize Texas will be close, right? Sure, Trump will win but it will be by about 2-4 points.

I see anywhere from Trump +5 to Biden +2 as in the realm of possibility. If I had to guess, Trump +1-2 sounds like a good guess, but if Republicans want to take it for granted and get blindsided, then by all means

Eh, IDK if Biden gets THAT close. He is pretty weak in Austin and the Rio Grande valley with Hispanics.

Primary results are not evidence.

Austin is going to go for Biden by Beto margins or bigger. It gets bigger and bluer by the week.

I don't know why people are assuming that Beto 2018 is the absolute ceiling. It seems like every time people think a ceiling is hit anywhere it gets shattered. Remember the 45% ceiling Dems supposedly had in Arizona and Georgia?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

Lol you do realize Texas will be close, right? Sure, Trump will win but it will be by about 2-4 points.

I see anywhere from Trump +5 to Biden +2 as in the realm of possibility. If I had to guess, Trump +1-2 sounds like a good guess, but if Republicans want to take it for granted and get blindsided, then by all means

Eh, IDK if Biden gets THAT close. He is pretty weak in Austin and the Rio Grande valley with Hispanics.

Primary results are not evidence.

Austin is going to go for Biden by Beto margins or bigger. It gets bigger and bluer by the week.

Yeah, maybe just due to the insane growth there. Is worth noting though that Beto got like 90+ in Austin in the dem primary and run even in rural areas/the Rio Grande, and that was definitely reflected in the results.

Again, primary strength is not indicative of general election strength. Ask Senator Christine O'Donnell.