TX PPP/Democracy Toolbox (D): Biden +1 (4/27-28)

[Old Man Willow]

Why the hell isn’t the election tomorrow? Very annoying.

[Frenchrepublican]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

“The only serious pollsters are the pollsters that show me results that fit my priors”

Yeah, because you really believe that Trump is losing independants by 16 points and that republicans have only a +3 advantage gap in Texas ? In this case I have a seafront home in the Alps for you.

President Mitt Romney agrees that unskewing partisan ID in polls always works well.

Ask president Clinton how believing blindly the polls works well.

This just exemplifies your ignorance. While yes, polls in the crucial midwestern battleground states overestimated Clinton in 2016, thus causing her to lose the election, Texas polls actually underestimated both Clinton and O'Rourke in 2016/18.

Texas polls =/= a PPP poll done for a progressive Pac.

And to be honest I don't think I'm ignorant, I have a master in law, I'm interested by many different topics, I speak correctly 4 languages, concerning US politics, I'm everything but a ignorant and without being arrogant I can affirm that I know probably as many things than you, if not more, and for a French dude being well informed about this subject is pretty uncommon. I think I will stop posting comments/posts on this forum, because being insulted by people like you is becoming really tiresome, it's sad that some people can't act like adults and make their points without insulting their counterpart.

[wbrocks67]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

“The only serious pollsters are the pollsters that show me results that fit my priors”

Yeah, because you really believe that Trump is losing independants by 16 points and that republicans have only a +3 advantage gap in Texas ? In this case I have a seafront home in the Alps for you.

President Mitt Romney agrees that unskewing partisan ID in polls always works well.

Ask president Clinton how believing blindly the polls works well.

This just exemplifies your ignorance. While yes, polls in the crucial midwestern battleground states overestimated Clinton in 2016, thus causing her to lose the election, Texas polls actually underestimated both Clinton and O'Rourke in 2016/18.

Texas polls =/= a PPP poll done for a progressive Pac.

And to be honest I don't think I'm ignorant, I have a master in law, I'm interested by many different topics, I speak correctly 4 languages, concerning US politics, I'm everything but a ignorant and without being arrogant I can affirm that I know probably as many things than you, if not more, and for a French dude being well informed about this subject is pretty uncommon. I think I will stop posting comments/posts on this forum, because being insulted by people like you is becoming really tiresome, it's sad that some people can't act like adults and make their points without insulting their counterpart.

PPP is a legitimate pollster. Doesn't matter who it was done for. People have no reasonable evidence to claim that they are some hack polling agency. Their sample is exactly what the 2016 margin is, and Trump's approval being -3 is pretty damn close to what we've seen in other Texas polls. Not to mention, there is still 7% undecided here, and those could lean Trump in a state like Texas.

[President Johnson]

Texas will be closer than 2016, obviously, but I don't think it's ready to flip yet. Lean Republican.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm borderline convinced that PPP only releases polls that show Democrats ahead. I seriously haven't seen a poll of theirs in a long time that has shown a Republican leading in any state. Regardless, the only way this poll works if Texas takes another giant leap leftward in 2020, in which case, a bunch of states would have to trend to the right to offset, making Trump's EC advantage even stronger. So I'm very skeptical. Their 2016 vote in there kinda strikes me as a way to squash accusations of bias, but if you find the right amount of independents in the suburbs, you can get an oversample of Trump/Biden voters probably, it's either that or what I said above, cause otherwise, it's just out of line with national numbers.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'm borderline convinced that PPP only releases polls that show Democrats ahead. I seriously haven't seen a poll of theirs in a long time that has shown a Republican leading in any state. Regardless, the only way this poll works if Texas takes another giant leap leftward in 2020, in which case, a bunch of states would have to trend to the right to offset, making Trump's EC advantage even stronger. So I'm very skeptical. Their 2016 vote in there kinda strikes me as a way to squash accusations of bias, but if you find the right amount of independents in the suburbs, you can get an oversample of Trump/Biden voters probably, it's either that or what I said above, cause otherwise, it's just out of line with national numbers.

It's exactly what they do. This poll probably isn't too off because it shows Trump +9 in 2016. But they definitely got a lucky sample finding a bunch of former Trump supporting independents.

Still, Texas should not be slept on. It's changing fast, and the environment looks like it will still be pretty bad for republicans come November. Texas will be well to the right of America as a whole, but it can definitely flip if Biden is winning the PV by 8% or more.

[Xing]

Unlikely, though not outside of the realm of possibility. If the election were held in May, Biden could come surprisingly close in TX, but my current guess is that the race will at least tighten between now and November.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm borderline convinced that PPP only releases polls that show Democrats ahead. I seriously haven't seen a poll of theirs in a long time that has shown a Republican leading in any state. Regardless, the only way this poll works if Texas takes another giant leap leftward in 2020, in which case, a bunch of states would have to trend to the right to offset, making Trump's EC advantage even stronger. So I'm very skeptical. Their 2016 vote in there kinda strikes me as a way to squash accusations of bias, but if you find the right amount of independents in the suburbs, you can get an oversample of Trump/Biden voters probably, it's either that or what I said above, cause otherwise, it's just out of line with national numbers.

But this is a consequence of the fact that they're mostly polling swing (or near-swing) states, which is a reasonable thing to do, and it's reasonable for Biden to be ahead in those at the moment since he has a national lead that appears to be in the high single digits.  You could make the same point about most other pollsters doing polling in these states.  I do recall a PPP poll from Kansas last month where they had Biden losing to Trump by 12 (Sanders too, IIRC).

[lfromnj]

I'm borderline convinced that PPP only releases polls that show Democrats ahead. I seriously haven't seen a poll of theirs in a long time that has shown a Republican leading in any state. Regardless, the only way this poll works if Texas takes another giant leap leftward in 2020, in which case, a bunch of states would have to trend to the right to offset, making Trump's EC advantage even stronger. So I'm very skeptical. Their 2016 vote in there kinda strikes me as a way to squash accusations of bias, but if you find the right amount of independents in the suburbs, you can get an oversample of Trump/Biden voters probably, it's either that or what I said above, cause otherwise, it's just out of line with national numbers.

But this is a consequence of the fact that they're mostly polling swing (or near-swing) states, which is a reasonable thing to do, and it's reasonable for Biden to be ahead in those at the moment since he has a national lead that appears to be in the high single digits.  You could make the same point about most other pollsters doing polling in these states.  I do recall a PPP poll from Kansas last month where they had Biden losing to Trump by 12 (Sanders too, IIRC).

They had that Kansas poll but anyway recently they didn't release the Bollier vs Marshall numbers or the Hegar v Cornyn poll here despite polling both states.

[pbrower2a]

Texas is becoming increasingly a microcosm of America. Educational achievement is increasing, which makes people more hostile to the anti-intellectual posturing of President Trump. Well-educated people are moving to Texas, and that bodes ill to a President who holds learned opinions and ways in contempt. Texas straddles regions of America and is no cultural monolith. As one indicator, Texas is below-average in smoking.

If you look at the weak showings of approval in Louisiana and Mississippi on the east and Arizona to the west and recognize that Trump is being crushed politically in the giant cities elsewhere and losing in nearby suburbs, then you can see Trump losing.   

Sure, Texas has counties in which Trump stands to win 80-20 or so, but those are places where the small farmers have been selling out to bigger and more reactionary ones and the places where the farm labor is non-voting non-citizens. San Antonio votes much like Los Angeles, Houston votes much like Chicago, and Dallas votes much like Indianapolis. 

[Nyvin]

Polling in general doesn't mean much until June anyway.

Still, a good sign for Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is what happens when you consistently pass tax cuts for wealthy and ignore consumers like minimum wage increase and campaign finance reform,  it has caught up to Rs and its gonna pass anyways.

This poll doesnt bode well for Cornyn, McConnell or Graham

[President Johnson]

This is what happens when you consistently pass tax cuts for wealthy and ignore consumers like minimum wage increase and campaign finance reform,  it has caught up to Rs and its gonna pass anyways.

This poll doesnt bode well for Cornyn, McConnell or Graham

Lmao, tax cuts for the rich is hardly a reason Trump underperforms in Texas. By that logic, all Republicans would have done poorly.

[Nyvin]

I don't expect Biden to win Texas,  but if Trump is only winning the state by around 4-5% or so, that's a pretty worrying sign for Republicans come 2024.   

Republicans should dread the day Texas becomes a full blown swing state.

[Hammy]

Any time you see a PPP polls it's always best to move it 3-4 points to the right. Taking the results as they are is simply foolish.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I don't expect Biden to win Texas,  but if Trump is only winning the state by around 4-5% or so, that's a pretty worrying sign for Republicans come 2024.    

Republicans should dread the day Texas becomes a full blown swing state.

I don’t understand why people think that if Biden can’t flip Texas or Georgia this year, he would in 2024 when he’s an incumbent President. Incumbent Presidents don’t have a great track record of late of building significantly on their coalitions. Clinton and Bush only flipped states that barely went against them in their first election

If Biden wins this year but fails to flip GA/TX, we probably have to wait until the next Democratic President wins for them to flip, which could be 2028 or 2032

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hegar has a chance after all or Royce White

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don't expect Biden to win Texas,  but if Trump is only winning the state by around 4-5% or so, that's a pretty worrying sign for Republicans come 2024.    

Republicans should dread the day Texas becomes a full blown swing state.

I don’t understand why people think that if Biden can’t flip Texas or Georgia this year, he would in 2024 when he’s an incumbent President. Incumbent Presidents don’t have a great track record of late of building significantly on their coalitions. Clinton and Bush only flipped states that barely went against them in their first election

If Biden wins this year but fails to flip GA/TX, we probably have to wait until the next Democratic President wins for them to flip, which could be 2028 or 2032

Georgia will flip with these numbers in 2020, on Texas yah I agree if Biden wins and he doesn't flip it will take until 2028/2032 and by then the GOP likely will be a very different party.


Which is good for conservatism as a win without TX would mean the Democrats would not have more than 52/53 seante seats and much of conservative policies would still be in place(even most of the 2017 tax bill) but more than 53 and it would be an utter disaster for conservatism   

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Conservatism is intellectually and morally bankrupt nowadays, so I don’t know why the death of it would distress anyone outside the GOP consulting class. Not that liberalism isn’t also intellectually dead, though

[OSR stands with Israel]

Conservatism is intellectually and morally bankrupt nowadays, so I don’t know why the death of it would distress anyone outside the GOP consulting class. Not that liberalism isn’t also intellectually dead, though

Im a conservative and no its not intellectually bankrupt. Most conservative economic policies come from the Chicago School of Economics which is run by intellectuals. Its not morally bankrupt either

As for Conservatism leadership yah having Bush/Cheney be its leaders in the 2000s was not good but that's cause they were incompetent not cause conservatism is what failed in the 2000s

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Conservatism is intellectually and morally bankrupt nowadays, so I don’t know why the death of it would distress anyone outside the GOP consulting class. Not that liberalism isn’t also intellectually dead, though

Im a conservative and no its not intellectually bankrupt. Most conservative economic policies come from the Chicago School of Economics which is run by intellectuals. Its not morally bankrupt either

As for Conservatism leadership yah having Bush/Cheney be its leaders in the 2000s was not good but that's cause they were incompetent not cause conservatism is what failed in the 2000s

Roger that, Grammar School Republican

[Nyvin]

I don't expect Biden to win Texas,  but if Trump is only winning the state by around 4-5% or so, that's a pretty worrying sign for Republicans come 2024.    

Republicans should dread the day Texas becomes a full blown swing state.

I don’t understand why people think that if Biden can’t flip Texas or Georgia this year, he would in 2024 when he’s an incumbent President. Incumbent Presidents don’t have a great track record of late of building significantly on their coalitions. Clinton and Bush only flipped states that barely went against them in their first election

If Biden wins this year but fails to flip GA/TX, we probably have to wait until the next Democratic President wins for them to flip, which could be 2028 or 2032

The only elections you could possibly be basing this off of is 2008 to 2012,  since 1968 to 1972, 1984 to 1988, 1992 to 1996 all saw dramatic improvements for the incumbent and 2000 to 2004 saw Bush flip IA and NM while losing NH (also actually winning the PV), which is an overall improvement.

It could be summed up as simply as 2008 being an outstanding year for Democrats while 2012 was a more normal one.   Or maybe 2012 taking place while the WWC started trending away from Democrats.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Polling for this year is just trying to hurt me, isn't it?

[indietraveler]

Although TX isn't likely to flip we're going to see multiple polls showing Biden tied or with a slight lead. This type of polling result will be coming from multiple firms throughout the cycle.

[JRP1994]

Conservatism is intellectually and morally bankrupt nowadays, so I don’t know why the death of it would distress anyone outside the GOP consulting class. Not that liberalism isn’t also intellectually dead, though

Im a conservative and no its not intellectually bankrupt. Most conservative economic policies come from the Chicago School of Economics which is run by intellectuals. Its not morally bankrupt either

As for Conservatism leadership yah having Bush/Cheney be its leaders in the 2000s was not good but that's cause they were incompetent not cause conservatism is what failed in the 2000s

The Intelligent Right has gone from William F. Buckley, George Will, and the Weekly Standard to Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and Brietbart/OAN. If it's not dead, it's on life support.