TX PPP/Democracy Toolbox (D): Biden +1 (4/27-28)

[super6646]

YIKES

[Intell]

Conservatism is intellectually and morally bankrupt nowadays, so I don’t know why the death of it would distress anyone outside the GOP consulting class. Not that liberalism isn’t also intellectually dead, though

Im a conservative and no its not intellectually bankrupt. Most conservative economic policies come from the Chicago School of Economics which is run by intellectuals. Its not morally bankrupt either

As for Conservatism leadership yah having Bush/Cheney be its leaders in the 2000s was not good but that's cause they were incompetent not cause conservatism is what failed in the 2000s

The Intelligent Right has gone from William F. Buckley, George Will, and the Weekly Standard to Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and Brietbart/OAN. If it's not dead, it's on life support.

That is not what the intellectual right is and even the earlier names are really not the intellectual right.


The intellectual right are the people who make up the think tanks so in this case its mainly ideas and people from the Chicago School of Economics . The think tanks are the ones who write legislative policies not any of the names you mentioned .

Also George Will is so right wing he thinks Marco Rubio is against capitalism: https://www.unionleader.com/opinion/columnists/george-will-marco-rubio-joins-the-anti-capitalist-conservatives/article_ee972176-3171-579c-9aa4-6e417c03c783.html

Then the intellectual right is even more stupid than the twitter conservatives.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Conservatism is intellectually and morally bankrupt nowadays, so I don’t know why the death of it would distress anyone outside the GOP consulting class. Not that liberalism isn’t also intellectually dead, though

Im a conservative and no its not intellectually bankrupt. Most conservative economic policies come from the Chicago School of Economics which is run by intellectuals. Its not morally bankrupt either

As for Conservatism leadership yah having Bush/Cheney be its leaders in the 2000s was not good but that's cause they were incompetent not cause conservatism is what failed in the 2000s

The Intelligent Right has gone from William F. Buckley, George Will, and the Weekly Standard to Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and Brietbart/OAN. If it's not dead, it's on life support.

That is not what the intellectual right is and even the earlier names are really not the intellectual right.


The intellectual right are the people who make up the think tanks so in this case its mainly ideas and people from the Chicago School of Economics . The think tanks are the ones who write legislative policies not any of the names you mentioned .

Also George Will is so right wing he thinks Marco Rubio is against capitalism: https://www.unionleader.com/opinion/columnists/george-will-marco-rubio-joins-the-anti-capitalist-conservatives/article_ee972176-3171-579c-9aa4-6e417c03c783.html

Then the intellectual right is even more stupid than the twitter conservatives.

People in the Chicago School of Economics have PHDs

[Pericles]

It's time for people to get their heads out of the sand and realise Texas isn't a Safe R state anymore.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Conservatism is intellectually and morally bankrupt nowadays, so I don’t know why the death of it would distress anyone outside the GOP consulting class. Not that liberalism isn’t also intellectually dead, though

Im a conservative and no its not intellectually bankrupt. Most conservative economic policies come from the Chicago School of Economics which is run by intellectuals. Its not morally bankrupt either

As for Conservatism leadership yah having Bush/Cheney be its leaders in the 2000s was not good but that's cause they were incompetent not cause conservatism is what failed in the 2000s

The Intelligent Right has gone from William F. Buckley, George Will, and the Weekly Standard to Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and Brietbart/OAN. If it's not dead, it's on life support.

That is not what the intellectual right is and even the earlier names are really not the intellectual right.


The intellectual right are the people who make up the think tanks so in this case its mainly ideas and people from the Chicago School of Economics . The think tanks are the ones who write legislative policies not any of the names you mentioned .

Also George Will is so right wing he thinks Marco Rubio is against capitalism: https://www.unionleader.com/opinion/columnists/george-will-marco-rubio-joins-the-anti-capitalist-conservatives/article_ee972176-3171-579c-9aa4-6e417c03c783.html

Then the intellectual right is even more stupid than the twitter conservatives.

People in the Chicago School of Economics have PHDs

Rob DeSantis has a Harvard Law degree and couldn’t figure out how to put a mask on.

[Yoda]

A) PPP is not a bad pollster

B) How is Biden +1 *that* unbelievable? Trump's #s are in the crapper right now, and Beto lost by 2 in 2018. Not to mention, Abbott's 58/30 approval is one of the lower approvals we've seen for a gov recently, especially in an R state.

Right?? They're so bad that he threatened to sue his own campaign manager LMAO. My God it must be soul-draining to work for that idiot. I'd love to see the #'s that they showed him that prompted that reaction though haha.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If there is no Bradley effect, then Cornyn can lose.

Dems can beat 1 of the big 3, but wont beat all of them Graham, McConnell or Cornyn

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1255743973907468294

[Intell]

Conservatism is intellectually and morally bankrupt nowadays, so I don’t know why the death of it would distress anyone outside the GOP consulting class. Not that liberalism isn’t also intellectually dead, though

Im a conservative and no its not intellectually bankrupt. Most conservative economic policies come from the Chicago School of Economics which is run by intellectuals. Its not morally bankrupt either

As for Conservatism leadership yah having Bush/Cheney be its leaders in the 2000s was not good but that's cause they were incompetent not cause conservatism is what failed in the 2000s

The Intelligent Right has gone from William F. Buckley, George Will, and the Weekly Standard to Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and Brietbart/OAN. If it's not dead, it's on life support.

That is not what the intellectual right is and even the earlier names are really not the intellectual right.


The intellectual right are the people who make up the think tanks so in this case its mainly ideas and people from the Chicago School of Economics . The think tanks are the ones who write legislative policies not any of the names you mentioned .

Also George Will is so right wing he thinks Marco Rubio is against capitalism: https://www.unionleader.com/opinion/columnists/george-will-marco-rubio-joins-the-anti-capitalist-conservatives/article_ee972176-3171-579c-9aa4-6e417c03c783.html

Then the intellectual right is even more stupid than the twitter conservatives.

People in the Chicago School of Economics have PHDs

So do plenty of marxists.

[Skill and Chance]

Treat as an internal, but consistent with the overall trend.  Trump is favored but this is close enough for the state house majority to be in play.

[BaldEagle1991]

Until Beto there was a strong stigma from around 1995-2018 on voting Democrat. That many did not even want to reveal to a pollster that notion.

That's slightly changed now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably not, since they neglected to poll Senate race, Dems should not focus solely on TX, all they need is 270

[JA]

Conservatism is intellectually and morally bankrupt nowadays, so I don’t know why the death of it would distress anyone outside the GOP consulting class. Not that liberalism isn’t also intellectually dead, though

Im a conservative and no its not intellectually bankrupt. Most conservative economic policies come from the Chicago School of Economics which is run by intellectuals. Its not morally bankrupt either

As for Conservatism leadership yah having Bush/Cheney be its leaders in the 2000s was not good but that's cause they were incompetent not cause conservatism is what failed in the 2000s

The Intelligent Right has gone from William F. Buckley, George Will, and the Weekly Standard to Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and Brietbart/OAN. If it's not dead, it's on life support.

That is not what the intellectual right is and even the earlier names are really not the intellectual right.


The intellectual right are the people who make up the think tanks so in this case its mainly ideas and people from the Chicago School of Economics . The think tanks are the ones who write legislative policies not any of the names you mentioned .

Also George Will is so right wing he thinks Marco Rubio is against capitalism: https://www.unionleader.com/opinion/columnists/george-will-marco-rubio-joins-the-anti-capitalist-conservatives/article_ee972176-3171-579c-9aa4-6e417c03c783.html

You do realize that the political right, as an intellectual tradition, is about more than just free-market economics and, sometimes, doesn't even include that, yes?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Conservatism is intellectually and morally bankrupt nowadays, so I don’t know why the death of it would distress anyone outside the GOP consulting class. Not that liberalism isn’t also intellectually dead, though

Im a conservative and no its not intellectually bankrupt. Most conservative economic policies come from the Chicago School of Economics which is run by intellectuals. Its not morally bankrupt either

As for Conservatism leadership yah having Bush/Cheney be its leaders in the 2000s was not good but that's cause they were incompetent not cause conservatism is what failed in the 2000s

The Intelligent Right has gone from William F. Buckley, George Will, and the Weekly Standard to Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and Brietbart/OAN. If it's not dead, it's on life support.

That is not what the intellectual right is and even the earlier names are really not the intellectual right.


The intellectual right are the people who make up the think tanks so in this case its mainly ideas and people from the Chicago School of Economics . The think tanks are the ones who write legislative policies not any of the names you mentioned .

Also George Will is so right wing he thinks Marco Rubio is against capitalism: https://www.unionleader.com/opinion/columnists/george-will-marco-rubio-joins-the-anti-capitalist-conservatives/article_ee972176-3171-579c-9aa4-6e417c03c783.html

You do realize that the political right, as an intellectual tradition, is about more than just free-market economics and, sometimes, doesn't even include that, yes?

You’re trying to reason with a guy who thinks Art Laffer is an economic genius

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Texas President by Public Policy Polling on 2020-04-28

Summary: D: 47%, R: 46%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Conservatism is intellectually and morally bankrupt nowadays, so I don’t know why the death of it would distress anyone outside the GOP consulting class. Not that liberalism isn’t also intellectually dead, though

Im a conservative and no its not intellectually bankrupt. Most conservative economic policies come from the Chicago School of Economics which is run by intellectuals. Its not morally bankrupt either

As for Conservatism leadership yah having Bush/Cheney be its leaders in the 2000s was not good but that's cause they were incompetent not cause conservatism is what failed in the 2000s

The Intelligent Right has gone from William F. Buckley, George Will, and the Weekly Standard to Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and Brietbart/OAN. If it's not dead, it's on life support.

That is not what the intellectual right is and even the earlier names are really not the intellectual right.


The intellectual right are the people who make up the think tanks so in this case its mainly ideas and people from the Chicago School of Economics . The think tanks are the ones who write legislative policies not any of the names you mentioned .

Also George Will is so right wing he thinks Marco Rubio is against capitalism: https://www.unionleader.com/opinion/columnists/george-will-marco-rubio-joins-the-anti-capitalist-conservatives/article_ee972176-3171-579c-9aa4-6e417c03c783.html

You do realize that the political right, as an intellectual tradition, is about more than just free-market economics and, sometimes, doesn't even include that, yes?

You’re trying to reason with a guy who thinks Art Laffer is an economic genius

It's not 1982 anymore, time to move on.

[Sbane]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

Lol you do realize Texas will be close, right? Sure, Trump will win but it will be by about 2-4 points.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

Lol you do realize Texas will be close, right? Sure, Trump will win but it will be by about 2-4 points.

I see anywhere from Trump +5 to Biden +2 as in the realm of possibility. If I had to guess, Trump +1-2 sounds like a good guess, but if Republicans want to take it for granted and get blindsided, then by all means

[Sbane]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

Lol you do realize Texas will be close, right? Sure, Trump will win but it will be by about 2-4 points.

I see anywhere from Trump +5 to Biden +2 as in the realm of possibility. If I had to guess, Trump +1-2 sounds like a good guess, but if Republicans want to take it for granted and get blindsided, then by all means

I see Trump getting about 49-51% of the vote. How many third party votes there are remains to be seen.

[Bidenworth2020]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

Lol you do realize Texas will be close, right? Sure, Trump will win but it will be by about 2-4 points.

I see anywhere from Trump +5 to Biden +2 as in the realm of possibility. If I had to guess, Trump +1-2 sounds like a good guess, but if Republicans want to take it for granted and get blindsided, then by all means

Eh, IDK if Biden gets THAT close. He is pretty weak in Austin and the Rio Grande valley with Hispanics.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

Lol you do realize Texas will be close, right? Sure, Trump will win but it will be by about 2-4 points.

I see anywhere from Trump +5 to Biden +2 as in the realm of possibility. If I had to guess, Trump +1-2 sounds like a good guess, but if Republicans want to take it for granted and get blindsided, then by all means

Eh, IDK if Biden gets THAT close. He is pretty weak in Austin and the Rio Grande valley with Hispanics.

Primary results are not evidence.

Austin is going to go for Biden by Beto margins or bigger. It gets bigger and bluer by the week.

I don't know why people are assuming that Beto 2018 is the absolute ceiling. It seems like every time people think a ceiling is hit anywhere it gets shattered. Remember the 45% ceiling Dems supposedly had in Arizona and Georgia?

[Bidenworth2020]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

Lol you do realize Texas will be close, right? Sure, Trump will win but it will be by about 2-4 points.

I see anywhere from Trump +5 to Biden +2 as in the realm of possibility. If I had to guess, Trump +1-2 sounds like a good guess, but if Republicans want to take it for granted and get blindsided, then by all means

Eh, IDK if Biden gets THAT close. He is pretty weak in Austin and the Rio Grande valley with Hispanics.

Primary results are not evidence.

Austin is going to go for Biden by Beto margins or bigger. It gets bigger and bluer by the week.

Yeah, maybe just due to the insane growth there. Is worth noting though that Beto got like 90+ in Austin in the dem primary and run even in rural areas/the Rio Grande, and that was definitely reflected in the results.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

Lol you do realize Texas will be close, right? Sure, Trump will win but it will be by about 2-4 points.

I see anywhere from Trump +5 to Biden +2 as in the realm of possibility. If I had to guess, Trump +1-2 sounds like a good guess, but if Republicans want to take it for granted and get blindsided, then by all means

Eh, IDK if Biden gets THAT close. He is pretty weak in Austin and the Rio Grande valley with Hispanics.

Primary results are not evidence.

Austin is going to go for Biden by Beto margins or bigger. It gets bigger and bluer by the week.

Yeah, maybe just due to the insane growth there. Is worth noting though that Beto got like 90+ in Austin in the dem primary and run even in rural areas/the Rio Grande, and that was definitely reflected in the results.

Again, primary strength is not indicative of general election strength. Ask Senator Christine O'Donnell.

[Rookie Yinzer]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

“The only serious pollsters are the pollsters that show me results that fit my priors”

Yeah, because you really believe that Trump is losing independants by 16 points and that republicans have only a +3 advantage gap in Texas ? In this case I have a seafront home in the Alps for you.

They nailed the Beto/Cruz margin in 2018.

Now look at the numbers of races where they overestimated the democrat. Also, in 2018 the TX electorate was R+7 and Cruz lost independants by 4 (so Trump losing by 16 is not plausible)

Yes it is. Trump is more polarizing than Cruz, Biden does better with older voters, and 2020 will have way more young POC who identify as Independent but will vote like 75-25 Biden.

[Sbane]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

“The only serious pollsters are the pollsters that show me results that fit my priors”

Yeah, because you really believe that Trump is losing independants by 16 points and that republicans have only a +3 advantage gap in Texas ? In this case I have a seafront home in the Alps for you.

They nailed the Beto/Cruz margin in 2018.

Now look at the numbers of races where they overestimated the democrat. Also, in 2018 the TX electorate was R+7 and Cruz lost independants by 4 (so Trump losing by 16 is not plausible)

Yes it is. Trump is more polarizing than Cruz, Biden does better with older voters, and 2020 will have way more young POC who identify as Independent but will vote like 75-25 Biden.

Yeah this is a fair point. Lots of younger POC (especially Hispanics and Asians) likely don't affiliate with either party but end up voting for the Democrat when they do vote. You see similar patterns in California and the rest of the west as well. And some Hispanic independents who didn't have a problem voting for Senator Cruz might have a problem voting for Trump.