TX PPP/Democracy Toolbox (D): Biden +1 (4/27-28)

[krb08]

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/d72e152a3ad3380ae5a007c0849f2dd1/DTPPP-Texas-April27-28-2020.pdf

Biden 47%, Trump 46%, Not sure 7%

Trump approval: 46% approve, 49% disapprove

2016 vote: Trump 51%, Clinton 42%

[Frenchrepublican]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

[ON Progressive]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

“The only serious pollsters are the pollsters that show me results that fit my priors”

[JRP1994]

"You can talk about your border wall
And sing of covfefe
But Atlas red Texas
Is the only one for me"

[Bidenworth2020]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

I don't totally buy this poll, but throwing it out just because it doesn't fit your narrative, particularly when the Trump v. Clinton numbers are identical to what the actual 2016 result was, is not smart.

[Gass3268]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

They aren't? A Biden +1 result can exist in the same polling universe as a Trump +5 result.

[Holmes]

Frenchrepublican reacting to this poll

[Frenchrepublican]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

“The only serious pollsters are the pollsters that show me results that fit my priors”

Yeah, because you really believe that Trump is losing independants by 16 points and that republicans have only a +3 advantage gap in Texas ? In this case I have a seafront home in the Alps for you.

[Frenchrepublican]

Frenchrepublican reacting to this poll

Well, here is your reaction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erection

[Politician]

Texas is going to vote D. Trump is beyond over at this point.

[Gass3268]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

“The only serious pollsters are the pollsters that show me results that fit my priors”

Yeah, because you really believe that Trump is losing independants by 16 points and that republicans have only a +3 advantage gap in Texas ? In this case I have a seafront home in the Alps for you.

They nailed the Beto/Cruz margin in 2018.

[ON Progressive]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

“The only serious pollsters are the pollsters that show me results that fit my priors”

Yeah, because you really believe that Trump is losing independants by 16 points and that republicans have only a +3 advantage gap in Texas ? In this case I have a seafront home in the Alps for you.

President Mitt Romney agrees that unskewing partisan ID in polls always works well.

[Frenchrepublican]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

“The only serious pollsters are the pollsters that show me results that fit my priors”

Yeah, because you really believe that Trump is losing independants by 16 points and that republicans have only a +3 advantage gap in Texas ? In this case I have a seafront home in the Alps for you.

They nailed the Beto/Cruz margin in 2018.

Now look at the numbers of races where they overestimated the democrat. Also, in 2018 the TX electorate was R+7 and Cruz lost independants by 4 (so Trump losing by 16 is not plausible)

[Frenchrepublican]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

“The only serious pollsters are the pollsters that show me results that fit my priors”

Yeah, because you really believe that Trump is losing independants by 16 points and that republicans have only a +3 advantage gap in Texas ? In this case I have a seafront home in the Alps for you.

President Mitt Romney agrees that unskewing partisan ID in polls always works well.

Ask president Clinton how believing blindly the polls works well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

They aren't? A Biden +1 result can exist in the same polling universe as a Trump +5 result.

Some people (and I don't mean Gass here) do not understand margin of error.

[GeorgiaModerate]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

“The only serious pollsters are the pollsters that show me results that fit my priors”

Yeah, because you really believe that Trump is losing independants by 16 points and that republicans have only a +3 advantage gap in Texas ? In this case I have a seafront home in the Alps for you.

President Mitt Romney agrees that unskewing partisan ID in polls always works well.

Ask president Clinton how believing blindly the polls works well.

On average, the final polls were close to the national margin -- well within the MoE.

But if you feel that polls should not be trusted, then why do you even bother to follow this board?  Or is it only the polls that don't fit your narrative that you think shouldn't be trusted?  If so, at least be honest about it.

[Bidenworth2020]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

“The only serious pollsters are the pollsters that show me results that fit my priors”

Yeah, because you really believe that Trump is losing independants by 16 points and that republicans have only a +3 advantage gap in Texas ? In this case I have a seafront home in the Alps for you.

President Mitt Romney agrees that unskewing partisan ID in polls always works well.

Ask president Clinton how believing blindly the polls works well.

This just exemplifies your ignorance. While yes, polls in the crucial midwestern battleground states overestimated Clinton in 2016, thus causing her to lose the election, Texas polls actually underestimated both Clinton and O'Rourke in 2016/18.

[Gracile]

It's really not that unbelievable when you consider that Biden is polling in the high single-digits nationally (obviously it's not a sign that Biden is guaranteed to win this, but it lines up with how one might expect Texas to vote relative to the nation).

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

over-under on if Computer has a bigger metlldown than French Republican?

[ajc0918]

LMAO

Good riddance DJT

[Frenchrepublican]

But Atlas told me that PPP was a serious pollster.

“The only serious pollsters are the pollsters that show me results that fit my priors”

Yeah, because you really believe that Trump is losing independants by 16 points and that republicans have only a +3 advantage gap in Texas ? In this case I have a seafront home in the Alps for you.

President Mitt Romney agrees that unskewing partisan ID in polls always works well.

Ask president Clinton how believing blindly the polls works well.

On average, the final polls were close to the national margin -- well within the MoE.

But if you feel that polls should not be trusted, then why do you even bother to follow this board?  Or is it only the polls that don't fit your narrative that you think shouldn't be trusted?  If so, at least be honest about it.

The national polls done in the last two weeks of the race were on average fairly accurate. That doesn't mean that statewide polls, especially those done in competitive states were accurate.
National polls can generally be trusted when you average them. Now taking individual statewide polls, especially when they come from partisan pollster, at their face value is more risky, especially when they are not numerous enough to have a statistically significant average.

Anyway if you don't believe me just look at how disconnected national polls and statewide polls are.
On the RCP national average Biden is at +6.3, which would result in a solid victory but not a overwhelmingly one. Now at the same time you have a OH poll which has Trump down by 1, one in TX which has also Biden up by 1 and another one in North Carolina which has Trump down by 5. These polls, if you take them at their face value would result in a Biden landslide in which he would win the PV by double digits.

[YE]

I don’t have any problems with the pollster itself. PPP is a reputable enough pollster. But given it’s not even May, it doesn’t have that much meaning. If polls are like this 3-5 months from now, then we’ll talk.

[ProudModerate2]

Hello Texas!

[wbrocks67]

A) PPP is not a bad pollster

B) How is Biden +1 *that* unbelievable? Trump's #s are in the crapper right now, and Beto lost by 2 in 2018. Not to mention, Abbott's 58/30 approval is one of the lower approvals we've seen for a gov recently, especially in an R state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news