NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[Roll Roons]

Yes- she would get the nomination...

But, she would lose by a couple of points in the general imo.

I also think State Senator Jeff Jackson will be the Dem nominee- and he will be an opposite Dem candidate compared to Cunningham.... Jeff Jackson will definitely overperform, whereas Cunningham has always underperformed (Cunningham was supposed to be a great US Senate candidate when he ran 10 years ago--- Only to underperform and lose in the Dem Primary, to a very bland Elaine Marshall).

Jeff Jackson has the x-factor that I have always thought Cunningham completely lacked.

There is no good reason that he shouldn't have run and been nominated this year. Maybe Collins, Ernst, Daines, Cornyn, Graham and Sullivan weren't beatable anyway, but Tillis certainly was.

[Roll Roons]

Jeff Jackson is in. https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article248608500.html

He couldn’t have done this a year ago? Ugh

There was speculation here (and journalistic rumours elsewhere) that Schumer did not 'okay' his candidacy because of skeletons in the closet. Him choosing to run now probably debunks that and makes the recruitment of Cunningham look like an even more bizarre decision.

Apparently it was because they disagreed about campaign strategy. Jackson wanted to run a grassroots campaign and hold town halls all over the state, but Schumer wanted the candidate to be locked in a windowless basement and make fundraising calls all day.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1354822447804125185

Jackson has already raised $500K. So much for the windowless basement strategy.

[Roll Roons]

It's a shame Jackson's 2020 run never materialized (though beating Tillis was hardly guaranteed given how NC voted and the state's overall Republican lean); he's going to have an uphill battle next year.

I think he would have won in 2020. He reminds me of Kander or 2018 Beto, but in a much less red state than Missouri or Texas. Biden got nearly 20000 more votes in defeat than Tillis did in victory, so I think he could have easily made up that gap.

[Roll Roons]

I haven’t heard of McCrory recently, but he’ll be interesting as he’s a pre-trump republican. I wonder how he’ll try and sell himself as a return to the old “bush era republicans” or a dyed in the wool trumpian

It's hard to say. He styled himself as a pragmatic moderate "Eisenhower" Republican, but got caught up in culture war BS with the bathroom bill. And then when he narrowly lost reelection, he blamed it on voter fraud.

[Roll Roons]

If Lara gets the nomination, I just might go to North Carolina to campaign for Jackson.

[Roll Roons]

When's the primary? If this turns bitter, an earlier primary would be better for the eventual Democratic nominee.

[Roll Roons]

FWIW, Tillis' pollster thinks Cunningham would have won without the affair:
https://twitter.com/ZacMcCrary/status/1375085942839652360

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/29/tillis-surgery-prostate-cancert-478325

Tillis was apparently diagnosed with cancer, although they caught it early so he'll hopefully be fine soon.

[Roll Roons]

Man, the GOP primary is really shaping up to be a mess.

[Roll Roons]

Man, the GOP primary is really shaping up to be a mess.

It's not like the Democratic primary is any better with Jeff Jackson, Erica Smith, and Cheri Beasley all running against each other.

Jackson still feels like more of a clear frontrunner there. Though NC's primary is relatively early, so whoever wins the GOP nomination will have plenty of time to recover.

[Roll Roons]

When McCrory first ran for Governor, he called himself an "Eisenhower Republican". How times change.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1390412624521834497

Bishop endorses Budd, so we know he won't run.

[Roll Roons]

So I guess Lara isn't running after all:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1401333750643015681

[Roll Roons]

I’m actually inclined to think Beasley wins the nomination.

[Roll Roons]

https://nsjonline.com/article/2021/07/cheri-beasley-teams-with-controversial-missouri-rep-to-fundraise/

Let me point out that this century, Democrats have not won a presidential or Senate election in North Carolina, the only exception being the massive wave blue year of 2008. A year so great for them that they flipped House seats in Idaho and southeast Alabama. Though recent elections have been close, the state does appear to have a stubborn Republican tilt.

So why on earth does Beasley think it would be a good idea to fundraise with someone as toxic as f**king Cori Bush? Is she actually that dumb? This would be the equivalent of Chris Sununu fundraising with MTG.

[Roll Roons]

Chuck Schumer has never liked this guy - Jackson is probably hedging his bets that he'll fare better and face less hurdles in a future statewide primary for a row office or Governor.

I wonder why. TBH, I bet Jackson's campaign strategy would have been better than being locked in a windowless basement.

[Roll Roons]

Also, some people think Democrats were doomed to lose North Carolina Senate race last year because Biden lost the state. But he only did so by 1.5%, hardly an insurmountable margin, and got more raw votes in defeat than Tillis did in victory.

In hindsight, Collins may not have been beatable but Tillis definitely was. I wonder if people who write it off as "Trump won the state" are just trying to cope with the fact that they blatantly whiffed a crucial race.

[Roll Roons]

Also, some people think Democrats were doomed to lose North Carolina Senate race last year because Biden lost the state. But he only did so by 1.5%, hardly an insurmountable margin, and got more raw votes in defeat than Tillis did in victory.

In hindsight, Collins may not have been beatable but Tillis definitely was. I wonder if people who write it off as "Trump won the state" are just trying to cope with the fact that they blatantly whiffed a crucial race.

So you think this time Dems have much of a shot here? I doubt. 2022 elections are expected to take place in an R-leaning environment, so why should NC-Sen not be at least Lean R? Sure, it's an open seat, but NC has proven to be a very unflexible state with a high floor and ceiling for Dem candidates anyway.

This seat would be winnable in a Trump midterm for sure. Might even be considered Tilt D in such a scenario. Since it isn't, I don't see much of a case why this isn't at least a Lean R race for now.

I was referring to the 2020 race. For 2022, Democrats were always going to be significant underdogs in a Biden midterms.

[Roll Roons]

It's also pretty unlikely that the current NC map stands, so it's not clear if Walker will even have a place to go.

[Roll Roons]

Not the Senate race, but Jackson dropped into the 14th:

https://twitter.com/JeffJacksonNC/status/1497285671999967235

I would have to think he's the solid frontrunner for that seat. I'm sure he still has a fairly sizable warchest from his Senate run.

[Roll Roons]

There’s nothing racist about this ad. All these liberals trying to prove how #woke they are twist themselves into knots looking for something that’s not actually there.