NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[SCNCmod]

About two months old, but I think it’s pretty clear Cooper has his eye on a 2026 Senate run:

https://www.wral.com/amp/20413509/

Democrats will probably need Cooper in NC, Peltola in AK, and Golden or Mills in ME or make up ground after what is likely to be a rough 2024 Senate cycle.

Cooper could easily end up being a contender for the 2024 Dem Presidential Nominee (or depending on who the nominee is... the VP candidate),

But if neither of those pan out, then he will definitely likely run for the next open Senate seat.
(He could also pull a Jim Hunt.. and run for Governor again after being out of office- for I think 4 years.  Although this option is unlikely).

[SCNCmod]

The one thing Beasley has to do to in the closing days (IMO) ...

1) start releasing ads that hit back on the Budd attack ads (not that it matters... nor am I really drawing a comparison to the 2 elections, but this is something Hagan did effectively)

2) continue releasing ads that expose Budd as a candidate more interested in far right wing political stunts... rather than taking the job seriously to work for the interest of NC.

[2016]

Pat McCrory is now a NBC Contributor. Maybe he should become a Democrat. This is absolutely ridiculous.

[bagelman]

Some of the comments on why Hagan won... and why Beasley cannot win, etc ... What state are these ppl from??

I'm from NC- and to me... Beasley is definitely the 1st dem candidate since Hagan, that feels like she has the gravitas to win.  And Budd feels like much more of a joke than Burr and Tillis (who isn't really a strong candidate, but does at least come across as more mainstream & at least competent).

Ross, Cunningham, and Marshall ... regardless of where they fall on the political spectrum or their experience... never felt like they had the xfactor needed to win. 

And to say that Beasley is too extreme to defeat Budd- is laughable.  And probably, In the end- the 5% of swing voters in the middle are going to decide the NC election... based on who they find more likable. 

(but none of those 5% of voters are saying that Beasley is "too extreme"... if either candidate loses for being too extreme in the eyes of swing voters... it will be Budd. But I'm not sure those voters will even get to know Budd or his record well enough to even realize that he is out of touch with their general views... so again, it will come down to overall likability- who seems most prepared to be a serious senator for NC)

There's still the problem of the national environment. I still think it could be good enough to pull Budd over the line. He's not Walker.

[SCNCmod]

Some of the comments on why Hagan won... and why Beasley cannot win, etc ... What state are these ppl from??

I'm from NC- and to me... Beasley is definitely the 1st dem candidate since Hagan, that feels like she has the gravitas to win.  And Budd feels like much more of a joke than Burr and Tillis (who isn't really a strong candidate, but does at least come across as more mainstream & at least competent).

Ross, Cunningham, and Marshall ... regardless of where they fall on the political spectrum or their experience... never felt like they had the xfactor needed to win. 

And to say that Beasley is too extreme to defeat Budd- is laughable.  And probably, In the end- the 5% of swing voters in the middle are going to decide the NC election... based on who they find more likable. 

(but none of those 5% of voters are saying that Beasley is "too extreme"... if either candidate loses for being too extreme in the eyes of swing voters... it will be Budd. But I'm not sure those voters will even get to know Budd or his record well enough to even realize that he is out of touch with their general views... so again, it will come down to overall likability- who seems most prepared to be a serious senator for NC)

There's still the problem of the national environment. I still think it could be good enough to pull Budd over the line. He's not Walker.

Oh- I definitely think Budd can win... I just think Beasley "feels" to me, like the strongest candidate Dems have nominated for Senator, since Hagan was the nominee. (Ross, Marshall, Cunningham ... never "felt" like strong candidates- to me... regardless of resume, etc)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Pat McCrory is now a NBC Contributor. Maybe he should become a Democrat. This is absolutely ridiculous.

Go off I guess

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Pat McCrory is now a NBC Contributor. Maybe he should become a Democrat. This is absolutely ridiculous.

Go off I guess

Ignoring 2016 has been wonderful with regards to improving my forum experience.

[SnowLabrador]

If Democrats couldn't beat Tillis, they aren't beating Budd. Likely R.

[SCNCmod]

If Democrats couldn't beat Tillis, they aren't beating Budd. Likely R.

Tillis is viewed as boring & has zero X-factor... but he viewed as being pretty mainstream/ generally focused on doing what he think is best for the state, etc

vs Budd ... who is viewed by many as being more concerned with political theatrics/ political stunts/ taking far right wing positions simply for publicity (vs being solely focused on the states best interested)...

So in that since- Tillis is a worse campaigner... but more electable (if swing voters are trending more conservative/ or republican).  Budd is seen as less acceptable to many independent/ swing voters  (the challenge for Dems/Beasley ... is making sure enough swing voters are aware of Budd's past flame throwing type positions).

But Budd on the ticket, provides more winnable voters (independents) compared to Tillis (even though he is generic and boring).  


** I may be wrong- but it seems like a lot of people do not have a very accurate read on Beasley & Budd ... or the Senate race in NC in general.  (Also- although NC votes reliably Republican for President... and for the House/ partially due to gerrymandering ... NC also votes more often for Dems for Governor - and has a history of being willing to elect Dem senators (I just argue that the past 3 Dem Senate candidates have been weak candidates/ election-wise).

[SCNCmod]

....

runner up Bold prediction:

Beasley finishes out the final 2 weeks of the campaign, by finally hitting back against Budd's attack ads- and clarifies to voters why she is not the out of touch flame throwing candidate... and why Budd is the candidate with extreme positions (NC will not elect a Trump-groupie senate candidate this years... if enough voters discover that Budd is a Trump-groupie - prior to casting their votes).

... and Beasley wins the NC Senate election (the same way she was elected statewide- to the State Supreme Court in 2008, 2014, (and only lost by 400 votes in 2020).

*The bold part of this prediction is Beasley's team finally getting clued in to the absolutely necessary need to hit back on the Budd (grossly characterizing .. at best) attack ads... and remind (or probably inform) voters of Budd's extreme antics.

Hear is my prediction- in the "bold prediction" thread...  hopefully it soon starts turning into a reality.  NC being represented in the Senate by Ted Budd is not what the state needs ... Burr and Tillis are 100% mainstream compared to Budd.... I'm just not sure if voters will discover this reality prior to election day.

...NC is being bombarded with an ad that ends with (Cheri Beasley even wants to raise taxes on people making under $75,000)... and still no response ad. 

I'm not sure if the Beasley team fully understands that many of the sway-able, swing voters barely know anything at all about Budd or Beasley- and basically form their opinions and decide on who to vote for (consciously or sub-consciously) based on these repetitive ads that run the last month of the election. (the more partisan, cable news watchers, decided a long time ago who they were voting for...

... whereas the majority of the yet to decide 5-10% that will decide who wins... have basically never heard of Budd or Beasley other than in the onslought of campaign ads.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These 3rd party candidates like in UT, NC and OR can change a race between a D win or an R win so all these predictions can be wrong, especially R nut maps because since Laura Kelly won in 2018 after Gary Johnson played spoiler to Hillary independent candidates are now taking more from Rs than Ds , McMULLIN says he will vote more with Ds because the R party is MAGA , leaving room open if he is the tie breaker and we net the H in 22 or 24 he can cast the tie breaker to nix the Filibuster instead of Sinema , therefore DC statehood and Voting Rights

That's why I have McMullin strong D takeover the Filibuster proof Trifecta

[wbrocks67]

Uh so this ad is .... wow. The campaigns really have no shame this cycle.

Again, though, between ads like this, and outside GOP groups dumping $40-50M on this race, is it because Budd excites nobody or that this race is actually closer than they'd like?

https://twitter.com/JoePostingg/status/1582722448256294916

[Roll Roons]

There’s nothing racist about this ad. All these liberals trying to prove how #woke they are twist themselves into knots looking for something that’s not actually there.

[Calthrina950]

There’s nothing racist about this ad. All these liberals trying to prove how #woke they are twist themselves into knots looking for something that’s not actually there.

I've seen the argument that Republicans are using the crime issue as a racist dogwhistle against Democrats, and by "crime", that they actually mean urban blacks. In other words, that the current Republican strategy is a revival of the Willie Horton strategy from the 1988 presidential election. The argument rests on the proposition that there has been a major backlash to any efforts at criminal justice reform in the wake of George Floyd and the 2020 riots.

[bagelman]

There’s nothing racist about this ad. All these liberals trying to prove how #woke they are twist themselves into knots looking for something that’s not actually there.

I've seen the argument that Republicans are using the crime issue as a racist dogwhistle against Democrats, and by "crime", that they actually mean urban blacks. In other words, that the current Republican strategy is a revival of the Willie Horton strategy from the 1988 presidential election. The argument rests on the proposition that there has been a major backlash to any efforts at criminal justice reform in the wake of George Floyd and the 2020 riots.

Seems like they're using it because they see it as the big reason they were able to overpreform polls in 2020. It might work but the BLM protests and similar things have declined in importance in the past 2 years relative to other issues.

[Calthrina950]

There’s nothing racist about this ad. All these liberals trying to prove how #woke they are twist themselves into knots looking for something that’s not actually there.

I've seen the argument that Republicans are using the crime issue as a racist dogwhistle against Democrats, and by "crime", that they actually mean urban blacks. In other words, that the current Republican strategy is a revival of the Willie Horton strategy from the 1988 presidential election. The argument rests on the proposition that there has been a major backlash to any efforts at criminal justice reform in the wake of George Floyd and the 2020 riots.

Seems like they're using it because they see it as the big reason they were able to overpreform polls in 2020. It might work but the BLM protests and similar things have declined in importance in the past 2 years relative to other issues.

Agreed. The economy seems like a more significant issue to me than crime, and most recent polls have shown that voters also believe this, although crime (and gun violence) is ranked by them above abortion.

[henster]

Uh so this ad is .... wow. The campaigns really have no shame this cycle.

Again, though, between ads like this, and outside GOP groups dumping $40-50M on this race, is it because Budd excites nobody or that this race is actually closer than they'd like?

https://twitter.com/JoePostingg/status/1582722448256294916

This is why I was never really optimistic in Beasley as a candidate or any judge really who runs for office. There’s always going to be some sex case picked apart by their opponents, even though a lot of these court cases are complicated and nuanced. I don’t think judges are good political candidates at all  I’m not even a fan of judicial elections a lot of states have.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds had Jeff Jackson and they passed on him and put Beasley ahead if they lose NC they failed at recruiting again

I remember there were so many Ds that said they rather have Beasley instead of Jackson where are they now, nowhere

[Zenobiyl]

Uh so this ad is .... wow. The campaigns really have no shame this cycle.

Again, though, between ads like this, and outside GOP groups dumping $40-50M on this race, is it because Budd excites nobody or that this race is actually closer than they'd like?

https://twitter.com/JoePostingg/status/1582722448256294916

This is why I was never really optimistic in Beasley as a candidate or any judge really who runs for office. There’s always going to be some sex case picked apart by their opponents, even though a lot of these court cases are complicated and nuanced. I don’t think judges are good political candidates at all  I’m not even a fan of judicial elections a lot of states have.

Holy sh**t, GOP really took the gloves off with that one

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If she lost in 2020, and if Republicans have the edge a lot of people think they have in the state this cycle, then why in hell did people think she had a shot in the first place lol.

Different races can make different results. It mostly comes down to Budd being more lackluster then expected

[ProgressiveModerate]

If she lost in 2020, and if Republicans have the edge a lot of people think they have in the state this cycle, then why in hell did people think she had a shot in the first place lol.

I think Budd is definately favored, but the main 2 things that keep Beasley in the running are:

1. It seems like early on Beasley put in a lot of work to paint Budd as an "insider" and "politician" which seems to have been at least modestly successful.

2. Given Dems coalition in NC, favorable black and college turnout could really be a huge boost to Dems. Not to mention growth patterns are extremely favorable to Dems in the state. In other words this is one of those few places where I think a bluer electorate than 2020 is possible, along with places like GA and MI.

[SCNCmod]

If she lost in 2020, and if Republicans have the edge a lot of people think they have in the state this cycle, then why in hell did people think she had a shot in the first place lol.

Trump's popularity among the 5-10% swing voters that decide elections in NC... is considerably lower than it was on Election Day 2 years ago.  Also- there is probably an extra 5% at play due to Abortion decicion  (many overlap with the typical 5-10% swing voter).

So considering she essentially tied in 2020... definitely a decent chance ... especially considering Budd is a Dudd  (he's a trump candidate & willing to support Abortion ban with no exceptions).

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/cwebbonline/status/1582063521809825793

https://twitter.com/cwebbonline/status/1580554007986073601


Clip 1   1 min clip ...gives a pretty good (broad overview) of some commentary on the NC race generally ... not saying its perfect, but a good overview for ppl who aren't at all familiar with the race.

Clip 2   1 min clip ...Short segment where Beasley states position on Abortion (which isn't "On Demand, No Restrictions")

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/RogueCitizenOne/status/1583490308477579264

Regarding effective closing Ads... even a cleaned-up version of this (re-shot somewhere, without the couple of pauses, etc)  is really all Beasley needs.

Most of the small % of swing voters in NC are likely not familiar with Beasley at all- and she needs to drill in a short general (re)introduction... from Beasley herself
(it would provide a good contrast to show she doesn't come across as the Ultra Liberal - Pro Child Molester- Pro Cop Killer ... candidate that the Budd & SuperPACs Ad Bombardment is attempting to portray her as).

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/cfgAction/status/1582740348916404227

Regarding Current Attack Ads

Here is another of the  (grossly Misleading) attack ads (there are quite a few):
This one basically saying she supports cop killers... Because as an assistant public defender... she did her assigned job.

(This case was back in the 1990's ... when Beasley was a Public Defender... where you are Assigned clients)

Also- the tweet itself from this PAC releasing the ad... is False (says she backed child predator and Cop Killer over  children and law enforcement)- As a public Defender you are in no remotely factual way making a choice of supporting a defendant over their victim.

 *Regarding the racial ads discussion on prior page- I don't really think the incredulity of the ads is that they are racist ... its that they are so blatantly, over the top... dishonest/ in that their aim is to be completely misleading (in an over the top fashion).