Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[GeorgiaModerate]

henster posted more details in the general election night thread:

This comment on reddit is interesting.

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https://www.reddit.com/r/Charlotte/comments/a10kqk/nc_elections_board_declines_to_certify_9th/ean1n30/?st=jp1g5esc&sh=15095a86

That's strange enough to warrant a deeper look.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Vote to certify it, Harris won fair and square.

The bipartisan state board of elections evidently thinks there is sufficient reason to delay certification.  They don't need to rush if there's something in question.  (You're getting really tiresome with this, btw.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

This story is kind of personally amusing in that in my alt-1968 timeline, the election hinged on voter fraud by a county election official in North Carolina. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

From an expert on NC election law:

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/1067622645858996224

[GeorgiaModerate]

Even without any hard evidence, this seems like exactly the sort of thing Rachel Maddow would spend the first 50 minutes of her show teasing out all the rumors over.  But nope, tonight is yet another episode on Russian collusion, rehashing Senate committee testimony from last year.

I think it's quite reasonable that there hasn't been much media attention on this yet.  It may well turn out to be a nothingburger.  If something that was actually fishy comes to light, then the media will (justifiably) be all over it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So, looks like Harris leads by 832 votes in Bladen (and district-wide by 905). If there's a reasonable belief some shenanigans occurred here - to the extent that it's equivalent to roughly 1 in 5 GOP ballots cast in the county - then this would be the biggest instance of voter fraud in a long time.

The Charlotte Observer story says that Harris leads by 1557 in Bladen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Didn’t they say we would get more details on what they’re looking at today? Has a time been posted anywhere?

I thought it was going to be Friday (but don't have a citation for that).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jimmorrill/status/1068225397165314048

Waiting for someone to come up with an innocent explanation of this.  (* settles down with a good book *)

[GeorgiaModerate]

More info from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

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Link to Michael Bitzer's detailed analysis

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/McCreadyForNC/status/1068318605278879744

And the people of the 9th chose Harris.

That has not yet been officially established, and your repeated assertions will not make it so.  If the BoE upholds Harris's election, then feel free to gloat at that point; but unless and until that happens, will you PLEASE knock it off?  You have enough of value to say on other topics that I would regret putting you on Ignore, but I'm about 1 millimeter from it at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

And the people of the 9th chose Harris.

These disingenuous posts, with their repetition, are crossing the line into trolling. I suggest you reconsider.

If people see trolling behavior on these threads, please report to the mods.

Since when is stating a fact trolling. Even if you invalidate every single absentee ballot from Bladen County Harris still wins. The people of the ninth clearly chose Harris lol, that’s not trolling.

Of course, this should still be investigated and if someone committed fraud they should be thrown in jail. But the county is just too small to have had an impact on this race’s outcome.

It has also been claimed in one article that the absentee ballot harvesting operation may have simply destroyed many ballots that were cast for McCready (don't have the citation handy, sorry).  There is no way to adjust for this.  If these allegations of massive ballot harvesting do pan out, this election is hopelessly tainted, and the only fair course of action is to call a new election, hopefully with tighter controls.  If Harris wins that, I will be the first to say he is the rightful Representative for this district.

[GeorgiaModerate]

And the people of the 9th chose Harris.

These disingenuous posts, with their repetition, are crossing the line into trolling. I suggest you reconsider.

If people see trolling behavior on these threads, please report to the mods.

Since when is stating a fact trolling. Even if you invalidate every single absentee ballot from Bladen County Harris still wins. The people of the ninth clearly chose Harris lol, that’s not trolling.

Of course, this should still be investigated and if someone committed fraud they should be thrown in jail. But the county is just too small to have had an impact on this race’s outcome.

Not true in the primary. Harris may not even be a legitimate nominee.

The primary was decided by 800 votes. Again, if you entirely invalidate the votes they are investigating Harris still would’ve won. It’s just simple math.

That's not how math works my friend.  Sure, if you don't count the votes from that county the Republican may be winning, but what if the Democrat won more votes than the Republican in that county?  So invalidating votes from the county isn't a fair solution.

It is literally impossible for the Democrat to have won enough votes in the absentee vote in that county to have won the election. The Democrat would’ve had to win 300% as many votes as there were total absentees to win the election. That is how math works.

Oh, stop being disingenuous.  You're completely ignoring the possibilty (which has been alleged in at least one article) that the absentee harvesters -- an illegal practice in NC -- destroyed ballots marked for McCready.  There's obviously no way to know how many such (if any) were destroyed, so the whole concept of trying to adjust the absentee numbers is ludicrous.  If the absentee harvesting is substantiated, the election needs to be thrown out.  And the perpetrators thrown into jail.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's more on the allegations:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Its also possible the Democratic House just refuses to seat Harris and calls for special election.

absolutely disgusting
Let this bipartisan board do it together. If scotus rules that the board is unconstitutional but the board says for SE id be fine them refusing to seat Harris but the house should not be able to do this.

I mean there are instances where the House refusing to seat someone would be legitimate, such as where the state refuses to investigate and take action on rather blatant fraud. Not that North Carolina is an instance of this (so far, though case looks strong), but the House being able to refuse to seat is a good backstop in a country where states hold a lot of power over elections to Congress.

Also, if the NCGOP tries to short-circuit this investigation in any way, then yes, it would make sense to refuse to seat him. I think the state party is already suing to force them to certify it, so that is one step towards trying to sweep this under the rug.

-

Overall I think it wouldn't be wise to refuse to seat Harris though, unless it becomes clear that there are more fraudulent votes for him that put him over the top. Democrats have to remember that just because you can do something, does not mean you should. It's also something I really wish Republicans would learn as well (no hope there tho). Otherwise, it'd be better to just dismantle the group responsible for these fraudulent ballots and put them in prison, along with anyone who supported them.

The bipartisan board is already left leaning with the indie . The board should have the final decision unless it's obvious

Oh for Pete's sake...

"Left leaning"?!? The board voted unanimously, repeat unanimously, including every single Republican on the board, not to certify the election due to blatant fraud.

What is with you? You've rarely been so hackish to my recollection.

I don't have a problem with the board atm but from my research the indie is left leaning I saw somewhere on tiwtter. Anyway I will continue to trust the board as long as the decisions are 6-3 or higher. I am just against the idea of the house deciding this election unless it's user obvious

I would also be inclined to go with whatever the board rules.  The House intervening to seat one of the candidates can lead to a result that's possibly unjust (see the 1984 IN-08 House election).  The most I would want to see them do (and that only if the result from the state is truly unclear) is declare the seat vacant and leave it to the state to hold a new election, as was done in the 1974 NH Senate race.  The second election in NH was decided by a wide margin.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The AP has withdrawn its call of this race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-heck-is-happening-in-that-north-carolina-house-race/

538 article of the entire situation.

One of the interesting tidbits in this (which I was unaware of previously) is that the questions aren't limited to Bladen County.  Robeson also looks somewhat suspicious.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A special election would require another primary. If I had to guess, there’s no way Harris is winning that even with the odds stacked in his favor. We could see Pittenger run again, and win the special primary and election.

Can the board order a new primary, or just a general election?  The primary result was previously certified.  (To be clear, I think they should start over with a new primary, since it looks tainted as well.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

I really want to hear Kris Kobach's response to all this voter fraud.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1069402488078573568

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1069701806232608769

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, this is interesting:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1069726843526361099

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats are trying to steal another Congressional Race. They always do.

*plonk*

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats are trying to steal another Congressional Race. They always do.

While I don’t agree with your characterizations, since people like you only care about voter fraud investigations when democrats are the suspects, I still think the board should certify the race.

How can you possibly be for certifying the race at this point, given all the information that's come out in the last few days?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats are trying to steal another Congressional Race. They always do.

While I don’t agree with your characterizations, since people like you only care about voter fraud investigations when democrats are the suspects, I still think the board should certify the race.

How can you possibly be for certifying the race at this point, given all the information that's come out in the last few days?

I think the Harris lead is insurmountable, and we should stop spending taxpayer funds on this investigation.

*plonk*

[GeorgiaModerate]

And I think so long as McCready is unable to catch up, Harris should be certified regardless of fraud. An insurmountable race ought to lead to certification.

Again, people’s votes were likely messed with. That’s why we’re having this investigation in the first place and no certification of the results regardless of whether or not McCready can catch up.

He's either trolling or being willfully stupid.