Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[TomC]

Has anyone pointed out these mail-in results yet?

whats the other county data. It looks suspicious but I would need to see it next to the other counties.

I would think getting 96% of the absentee by mail vote would be suspicious regardless. Nonetheless

https://er.ncsbe.gov/contest_details.html?election_dt=05/08/2018&county_id=0&contest_id=1547

Of course, there's no Democrat involved in the GOP primary, so how cold it possibly be fraud?

[TomC]

What jumps out at me are the turnout differences in Bladen and Robeson (for the primary.) Higher than average. Whereas, in the general, Robeson (where so many absentees didn’t get returned) is much lower.

[Devout Centrist]

One of these things is not like the other thing:

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1069402488078573568

[jimrtex]

Though it would seem they have to know who a mail in ballot is coming in from as they keep records of who votes. Maybe it’s on the envelope outside and not identifiable where the votes/choices are made, but for verification purposes, it would have to be somewhere. So they should be able to ask those who requested if they returned, just not if it has been altered.

Harris did slightly better in absentee ballots than in-person ballots.

Absentee: 61.4%
Election Day: 58.9%
One Stop: 55.8%

The One Stop is going to skew a bit since it is located in Elizabethtown. McCready carried P501 with 56,8% of the two way vote.

In 2016 there were One Stop (early voting) in Bladenboro, Dublin, and East Arcadia, in addition to the county seat of Elizabethtown.

Relative to 2014, election day turnout was down in P60, P15 which are near Dublin, P202, and P201 near Bladenboro, and P501 and P502, and P40 near Elizabethtown, despite overall turnout being up for the presidential election.

In 2018, with the closing of the three branch One Stop locations, turnout on election day rebounded in P60, P15, P202, P201 around Dublin and Bladenboro, and increased in P30 near East Arcadia. It remained at the same level in P502, P501, and P40 near Elizabethtown where there was still a One Stop.

This indicates that One Stop voting will be overly represented by Elizabethtown which is more Democratic-leaning than the remainder of the county.

The Republican state senator candidate had about 4.2% more election day votes in the district. But he is at least from eastern North Carolina, albeit from Southport in Brunswick County on the Coast. Wayne Brisson the Republican state representative ran 9.7% ahead of Harris. He switched parties this election and is from Dublin in the county.

Harris ran behind the local Republicans in Bladen County.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Can’t help but notice the so called “liberal biased” MSM is not really giving this story airtime

[TomC]

Jim- Spin as you will. Harris hired a man who engineered the illegal taking of ballots from old black rurals and either changed them or threw them away. Your “no, do this with the numbers; look over here” “state senator...one stop...blah blah” doesn’t change the anomalies in Bladen and Robeson. It’s sad you’ve been here this long and don’t get election stats better than that.

Plus, you weren’t even responding to what you quoted of mine. Why’d you bother?

“Harris ran behind the local Republicans in Bladen County.”

Harris is clearly a misogynistic sleaze who feels the need to cheat to win, so that’s not surprising.

[Oryxslayer]

Jim- Spin as you will. Harris hired a man who engineered the illegal taking of ballots from old black rurals and either changed them or threw them away. Your “no, do this with the numbers; look over here” “state senator...one stop...blah blah” doesn’t change the anomalies in Bladen and Robeson. It’s sad you’ve been here this long and don’t get election stats better than that.

Plus, you weren’t even responding to what you quoted of mine. Why’d you bother?

“Harris ran behind the local Republicans in Bladen County.”

Harris is clearly a misogynistic sleaze who feels the need to cheat to win, so that’s not surprising.

Do we reallly know this illegal activity is attributable to the Harris campaign though? If it was done in 2016 as well for a different Republican challenger, it just as easily be a local group of hyper-partisans.

[ilikeverin]

One of these things is not like the other thing:

This is absolutely wild.  The more I read and see, the more I'm convinced.

[TomC]

Jim- Spin as you will. Harris hired a man who engineered the illegal taking of ballots from old black rurals and either changed them or threw them away. Your “no, do this with the numbers; look over here” “state senator...one stop...blah blah” doesn’t change the anomalies in Bladen and Robeson. It’s sad you’ve been here this long and don’t get election stats better than that.

Plus, you weren’t even responding to what you quoted of mine. Why’d you bother?

“Harris ran behind the local Republicans in Bladen County.”

Harris is clearly a misogynistic sleaze who feels the need to cheat to win, so that’s not surprising.

Do we reallly know this illegal activity is attributable to the Harris campaign though? If it was done in 2016 as well for a different Republican challenger, it just as easily be a local group of hyper-partisans.

Is it attributable to Harris himself? I can’t say. McCrae Dowless worked for that challenger in 2016 and then Harris this year. He’s been convicted of fraud (insurance scam) and testified before the state BOE and implied he was involved in fraud in the 2016 election. Read the article on the previous page.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jim- Spin as you will. Harris hired a man who engineered the illegal taking of ballots from old black rurals and either changed them or threw them away. Your “no, do this with the numbers; look over here” “state senator...one stop...blah blah” doesn’t change the anomalies in Bladen and Robeson. It’s sad you’ve been here this long and don’t get election stats better than that.

Plus, you weren’t even responding to what you quoted of mine. Why’d you bother?

“Harris ran behind the local Republicans in Bladen County.”

Harris is clearly a misogynistic sleaze who feels the need to cheat to win, so that’s not surprising.

Do we reallly know this illegal activity is attributable to the Harris campaign though? If it was done in 2016 as well for a different Republican challenger, it just as easily be a local group of hyper-partisans.

Yeah, we actually do.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1069402488078573568

Plot 55.1% election day, 86.6% absentee. Would that be an outlier?

Also, the underlying model is flawed.

If 0% of election day vote was for a Democrat, I would expect 0% of mail ballots.

And if 100% of mail ballots were Democrat, I would expect 100% of in person ballots.

A larger share of Democrat votes were cast as mail ballots than any other county in the district.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Hate to point out the obvious, but Bladen and Robeson SHOULD NOT BE IN THE 9TH!!!!


I hope there is a new election, and I hope the State Supreme Court puts this map through a paper shredder, burns the shreds and then forces Mark Harris to eat the ashes.

[jimrtex]

Jim- Spin as you will. Harris hired a man who engineered the illegal taking of ballots from old black rurals and either changed them or threw them away. Your “no, do this with the numbers; look over here” “state senator...one stop...blah blah” doesn’t change the anomalies in Bladen and Robeson. It’s sad you’ve been here this long and don’t get election stats better than that.

Plus, you weren’t even responding to what you quoted of mine. Why’d you bother?

“Harris ran behind the local Republicans in Bladen County.”

Harris is clearly a misogynistic sleaze who feels the need to cheat to win, so that’s not surprising.

I have no idea why I quoted you. I apologize for that.

Harris is from Charlotte. The senate candidate was from Brunswick County, albeit on the coast. The representative is from Bladen County (Dublin) and was previously elected as a Democrat. You would expect that.

A county commissioner who had run as Democrat before, ran as a Republican and won with 65% of the vote.

The black population of Bladen County is 38%, You don't start knocking off white Democrats in the primary and expect not to push the county into the Republican column.

The number of total votes cast in Bladen County (in NC-9) relative to 2016 was higher than any other county in the district outside of Mecklenburg.

If all those ballots were tossed in the trash, the high vote anomaly would be even higher.

Are there other places in the US where absentee votes are expected to favor Democrats by 20%? !?!?!  From a Texas perspective that is the anomaly.

[TomC]

Jim- Spin as you will. Harris hired a man who engineered the illegal taking of ballots from old black rurals and either changed them or threw them away. Your “no, do this with the numbers; look over here” “state senator...one stop...blah blah” doesn’t change the anomalies in Bladen and Robeson. It’s sad you’ve been here this long and don’t get election stats better than that.

Plus, you weren’t even responding to what you quoted of mine. Why’d you bother?

“Harris ran behind the local Republicans in Bladen County.”

Harris is clearly a misogynistic sleaze who feels the need to cheat to win, so that’s not surprising.

I have no idea why I quoted you. I apologize for that.

Harris is from Charlotte. The senate candidate was from Brunswick County, albeit on the coast. The representative is from Bladen County (Dublin) and was previously elected as a Democrat. You would expect that.

A county commissioner who had run as Democrat before, ran as a Republican and won with 65% of the vote.

The black population of Bladen County is 38%, You don't start knocking off white Democrats in the primary and expect not to push the county into the Republican column.

The number of total votes cast in Bladen County (in NC-9) relative to 2016 was higher than any other county in the district outside of Mecklenburg.

If all those ballots were tossed in the trash, the high vote anomaly would be even higher.

Are there other places in the US where absentee votes are expected to favor Democrats by 20%? !?!?!  From a Texas perspective that is the anomaly.

No, agreed about Bladen ballots- they weren’t placed in the trash, they were turned in. The anomaly is that Bladen had a comparatively LOW percentage of Republicans turn in absentee (and, in turn a high percentage of Dem and unaffiliated), yet in absentee votes cast, Harris cleaned up and had an unexpectedly high percentage of non- Republican votes. That definitely implies either many Dems and unaffiliated voted for Harris in much greater numbers OR someone completed or changed the ballots. The affidavits certainly suggest the latter.

It’s Robeson with a high request rate and high number and percentage of ballots not returned (two anomalies) that suggests ballots were thrown out.

[SCNCmod]

Anyone who is trying to deny that there was voter fraud... Is blatantly just giving hackish spin at this point. 

Now whether or not Harris knew who he was hiring... and whether or not the Primary or the General where swayed by the Fraudulent Absentee Votes (and likely Fraudulent destroying of absentee votes)... Well these are separate questions to be debated.

But at this point- given the stats from both 2016, and 2018 primary, and 2018 general ... and also the affidavits from locals... the question of was there clear voter fraud---> is not a debatable point.  The answer to anyone who has looked at the information and who is not being a hack... is Yes. 

[wbrocks67]

Anyone who is trying to deny that there was voter fraud... Is blatantly just giving hackish spin at this point. 

Now whether or not Harris knew who he was hiring... and whether or not the Primary or the General where swayed by the Fraudulent Absentee Votes (and likely Fraudulent destroying of absentee votes)... Well these are separate questions to be debated.

But at this point- given the stats from both 2016, and 2018 primary, and 2018 general ... and also the affidavits from locals... the question of was there clear voter fraud---> is not a debatable point.  The answer to anyone who has looked at the information and who is not being a hack... is Yes. 

I think we should call it "election fraud though" -- to me, voter fraud would say that the voters were the culprits here, but that's not the case.

It's funny to me though that the GOP is the one crying about voter fraud or any type of fraud here and there, and yet the ones who actually committed the fraud in the first instance in decades are.... the GOP.

And to someone else's point, it is strange that this story is pretty massive but is not really getting airtime. Though I guess they're just waiting to get official word on what exactly happened before really giving it a lot of play.

[jimrtex]

No, agreed about Bladen ballots- they weren’t placed in the trash, they were turned in. The anomaly is that Bladen had a comparatively LOW percentage of Republicans turn in absentee (and, in turn a high percentage of Dem and unaffiliated), yet in absentee votes cast, Harris cleaned up and had an unexpectedly high percentage of non- Republican votes. That definitely implies either many Dems and unaffiliated voted for Harris in much greater numbers OR someone completed or changed the ballots. The affidavits certainly suggest the latter.

In 2016,

Democratic registration was 59.1%, Republican 15.3%, and unaffiliated 25.5%.

Roy Cooper got 46.1% of the vote.

This indicates that 22% of Democrats voted for McCrory, assuming that turnout was the same for all groups, and every Republican and affiliated voter voted for him.

[jimrtex]

And to someone else's point, it is strange that this story is pretty massive but is not really getting airtime. Though I guess they're just waiting to get official word on what exactly happened before really giving it a lot of play.

They are concentrating on the resignation of the Democratic chair of the NCSBE for his hackish partisan comments.

[Virginiá]

Absentee ballot envelopes in North Carolina fit into "a pattern of fraud"

https://popular.info/p/exclusive-absentee-ballot-envelopes

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1069686106873061378

[Sol]

Hate to point out the obvious, but Bladen and Robeson SHOULD NOT BE IN THE 9TH!!!!


I hope there is a new election, and I hope the State Supreme Court puts this map through a paper shredder, burns the shreds and then forces Mark Harris to eat the ashes.

It'll be nice when Bladen County ends up in a Likely D Fayetteville-Robeson seat.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1069701806232608769

[TomC]

No, agreed about Bladen ballots- they weren’t placed in the trash, they were turned in. The anomaly is that Bladen had a comparatively LOW percentage of Republicans turn in absentee (and, in turn a high percentage of Dem and unaffiliated), yet in absentee votes cast, Harris cleaned up and had an unexpectedly high percentage of non- Republican votes. That definitely implies either many Dems and unaffiliated voted for Harris in much greater numbers OR someone completed or changed the ballots. The affidavits certainly suggest the latter.

In 2016,

Democratic registration was 59.1%, Republican 15.3%, and unaffiliated 25.5%.

Roy Cooper got 46.1% of the vote.

This indicates that 22% of Democrats voted for McCrory, assuming that turnout was the same for all groups, and every Republican and affiliated voter voted for him.

Are you implying 2016 general could have been fraudulent, too, or that anomalies exist all over the place so there’s nothing wrong with the 2018 numbers? A “therefore...” or the like in some of your posts here would help. Unless you’re just throwing data out with no real conclusions relating to 2018.

The 22% Dem vote going to the Repub stands out but not nearly as much as the absentee data from Bladen and Robeson this year.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1069704844477378561