2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Xing]

All these stressful takes are totally forgetting that Biden is preforming extremely well with independents in the polling

LOL this is Florida.

It shouldn’t even have been a tossup. NC I can understand but anyone who thinks Biden is touching FLA or GA really needs... a diffrent hobby

Oh my god, I hope you cry when Biden wins GA and FL

In that fantasy land I’d cry tears of joy but .. if you think that’s happening you genuinely need a new hobby. I can see TX or NC happening if Biden pulls out some miracle. But GA and FLA are GONE.

Yeah, Jacky Rosen should just concede already and get it over with.

[Xing]

Wow, it's already Wet The Bed About Florida O'clock?

[Xing]

Strong prediction: We can obsess over any FL statistic and we will have no better idea who is headed for victory until actual votes report. Something I'm learning to do today is to pay literally zero attention to partisan takes on turnout today.

That's Atlas for you, freaking out about turnout reports, and then when the actual results show something completely different, claiming that they "knew it all along."

[Xing]

So are these Florida numbers good or no?

No one knows for sure, and we won't until we actually see the results. This whole thread is just speculation, at this point.

[Xing]

Welp, I guess I've seen enough. I'm rescinding my FL call for Trump, and calling it for Biden.

Rating change:
FL: Titanium Tilt R -> Titanium Tilt D

[Xing]

Our Progress election forecast has Trump only getting 60% of the vote in Forsyth! Biden also very close to 40%.

https://www.ourprogress.org/president/georgia

Trump win or Biden win - either way let’s give up the Georgia pipe dream.

Jacky Rosen should give up her pipe dream of defeating Dean Heller as well.

[Xing]

Welp, it's over. Biden wins the PV by 16. Good night, everyone.

[Xing]

Yeah, Trump probably narrowly wins Florida (despite doing worse in a lot of areas outside of Miami), but losing Florida isn't the end for Biden, not by a longshot.

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Trump is probably not going to win MI/PA/WI if Ohio is at all close. I get it, Florida is disappointing, but he's doing way better than Clinton in Ohio.

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North Carolina looks really good for Biden...

[Xing]

Well, this is looking closer than I thought, but you all are very annoying, so have a good night. See you all tomorrow.

[Xing]

If Wisconsin holds, which given that I imagine there are a few mail ballots here and there left out, it’s probably more likely than not, then Biden probably narrowly wins, as long as he can take one more state (I actually think he still has a good chance in Michigan.) While I’m not as surprised by the closeness of this race as I was in 2016, I do have to say, this country is not well. The fact that this race is so close makes me very pessimistic about the future.

[Xing]

The results in MN/OR/WA/CO specifically makes me think Biden got a ton of 2016's third-party voters.

In big cities like Seattle, absolutely. I expected this to happen to an extent, but I actually underestimated it. A 24-point margin in WA is absolutely bonkers, though it may narrow a little bit as we get the rest of the votes.

[Xing]

Most of what's out in NV is Clark mail, it's not flipping. Is AZ over, though? I thought it had already been called.

[Xing]

I think this may be the last time that the Democratic path to victory runs through MI/WI/PA.

From 2024, I expect it to run through NV/AZ/GA/NC

I wouldn't be so sure about Michigan and Pennsylvania. They don't seem to be voting much to the right of the nation this year. At least not any more than last time.

WI/MI/PA are still going to be completely winnable for Democrats going forward. Not only that, we need these states for their Senate seats in addition to electoral paths. It would be dumb for Democrats to look past them when... they literally just won them (minus PA at this hour)

Yeah, even if MI/PA/WI aren't tipping point states going forward, Democrats absolutely cannot give up on these states if they want hope of winning the Senate and getting more than a bare bones majority.

[Xing]

It would be pretty hilarious if the result ended up being 306-232, with four states (this time AZ, GA, PA, and WI) decided by 1.2% or less.

[Xing]

Counting all the votes = stealing

When counting the votes makes the results more favorable for the Democrats, that is. When it favors Republicans, it has to be done immediately, NOW.

[Xing]

Hmmmm, if the lower number is correct, that’s cutting it a bit close. Biden probably still pulls it out, but it probably ends up slightly closer in terms of percentage than Wisconsin.

[Xing]

Please celebrate, but don't gloat, if/when Biden takes the lead in these states counting mail ballots.  I don't believe that there is anything majorly fraudulent going on here, but it is still really hard watching apparent leads disappear even if you know it's coming.  I remember that well from the AZ-SEN and several CA House races in 2018.  We need to find a more efficient way of counting mail ballots going forward because this sort of result seems fishy to people who don't pay that close of attention to why it's happening, and that appearance can be real for so many people.

I’m not going to gloat, in part because the overall result is actually quite disappointing for me, but if Biden narrowly pulling ahead is hard to watch, imagine how Trump winning felt to us in 2016, or how close this race is despite everything Trump has done, or how much Republicans have won despite not winning the majority of voters, seeing what’s happened with the Supreme Court, not to mention Republicans haven’t exactly done a good job of not “gloating.” It’s very difficult to be empathetic after what we’ve seen over the past four to five years, especially when those on the other side aren’t exactly rushing to be understanding or show empathy, or try to understand what we really want.

[Xing]

I agree with Rick Santorum. Wee need to get rid of the winner take all mentality in politics. I really do hope Joe Biden can help make this country more progressive and make better policy for the benefit of a greater number of Americans. The winner take all mentality gave us Mitch McConnell stacking the courts and might get Democrats looking for retribution but long term it's not beneficial for this country. We do need statesmanship and competency in governance and we should care about all Americans even those who didn't vote for Biden.

I want to get rid of this mentality, but it takes two to tango. I'm not going to say that Democrats should gloat, especially since the downballot results for them were pretty terrible, but if we are gracious and Republican continue with the Trumpist "winning, trigger teh libz" mentality, we're not getting anywhere.

[Xing]

Kind of crazy how Trump did better with non-white voters than any Republican nominee since 1960 and still lost!

Shocking, really.  Trump of all people.  Very probably the most racist president in modern times.

People have talked about this and beaten it to death and hurled plenty of insults at those who explain why and give reasons that are not always 100% positive or don't seem rational (without actually refuting any points made), and the fact that this happens explains exactly why this is so hard for people to grasp. Many people just don't understand other communities or cultures, and have to see that understanding other communities and cultures is knowing the good and the bad, and understanding that seemingly irrational behavior to one person is completely normal to another. There are people I know from Mexico and Taiwan who say that there are some things they just don't understand about America/Americans because they make absolutely no sense, and when I reflect on these things, I definitely think they have a point.

In the end, people of color supporting someone as racist as Trump in larger numbers than before makes about as much sense as rural working class white voters supporting someone as far removed from the working class in rural areas as Trump. It seems irrational, and you can definitely argue that it is to an extent (or criticize the logic behind the decision), but it does pay to understand why people see things differently.

[Xing]

Kind of crazy how Trump did better with non-white voters than any Republican nominee since 1960 and still lost!

Shocking, really.  Trump of all people.  Very probably the most racist president in modern times.

People have talked about this and beaten it to death and hurled plenty of insults at those who explain why and give reasons that are not always 100% positive or don't seem rational (without actually refuting any points made), and the fact that this happens explains exactly why this is so hard for people to grasp. Many people just don't understand other communities or cultures, and have to see that understanding other communities and cultures is knowing the good and the bad, and understanding that seemingly irrational behavior to one person is completely normal to another. There are people I know from Mexico and Taiwan who say that there are some things they just don't understand about America/Americans because they make absolutely no sense, and when I reflect on these things, I definitely think they have a point.

In the end, people of color supporting someone as racist as Trump in larger numbers than before makes about as much sense as rural working class white voters supporting someone as far removed from the working class in rural areas as Trump. It seems irrational, and you can definitely argue that it is to an extent (or criticize the logic behind the decision), but it does pay to understand why people see things differently.

Please, educate us. NOT sarcastic here.

Well, I did make a bit in another thread about what I discussed with my wife (who is Latina), and some posters predictably didn't respond well, but to summarize it in the least controversial way I can, many Latinos, but not all, are actually quite conservative on many issues. Also, Trump's rhetoric on immigration, while obviously something many Latinos will despise, is not universally despised, since some think he accurately describes some immigrants, and some would rather not associate themselves strongly with the Latino community, since they want to be seen as assimilated Americans. Many also didn't think positively of the BLM protests, nor the "defund the police" slogan, and the idea of stability and security is very important to many Latino immigrants, particularly those coming from regions which were not especially safe.

There are other reasons that I don't think are as unique to Latinos, such as a focus on the economy and frustration about lockdowns, which also played a factor. Of course, something that many people misunderstood about my post is that I was trying to address why Trump might have done better among Latinos. A good number who also voted for him in 2016 are likely rank-and-file Republican voters who identify with the party anyway, and it's not as though they came out specifically for Trump.

I'm no expert on the black community, so I would defer to someone else on that, and I can't speak for most Asians, but Taiwanese Americans were likely happy to see Trump's rhetoric on China, as well as how he recognized Taiwan on many occasions and even congratulated the Taiwanese President when she got re-elected. Of course, Trump doesn't care at all about Taiwan and just does it to give a middle finger to China, but that might not matter to Taiwanese Americans, since that doesn't undo his actions, and many do (understandably) have a very negative opinion of Mainland China.

Anyway, I understand that this should probably move to another thread, but I wanted to address it.