2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Minnesota Mike]

How does YouGov/the Economist actually have a D +9 generic ballot? That is such a glaring error that one would think they would make efforts to change their methodology to achieve more realistic results. Their approval numbers for Biden are reasonable, so why is the GCB so extreme. How are they sampling so many Biden disapprove/congressional Dem supporting people?

Is it worse than the Rasmussen R+10 from a while back? I don't think so. Just because it does not line up with your priors it does not make it wrong. That having been said D+9 is probably an outlier IMO but like all polls it should be thrown in the average.

[Minnesota Mike]

Suffolk has GCB at D+2 but with way too many undecideds

Democrats 39%
Republicans 37%

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/01/04/gop-midterm-red-flag-bidens-leadership-challenge-usat-suffolk-poll/9078226002/?gnt-cfr=1

One poll, lots of undecided but a 10 point swing towards the Democrats since their last poll in November.

[Minnesota Mike]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

That could be a good point but there is a possibility that republicans will overperform their current polling or gain in their polling lead as the year goes on

Or the possibility of the opposite. It's way to early to dismiss the possibility of any outcome and anyone predicting with certainty at this point is foolish.

[Minnesota Mike]

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) continued to pad her re-election campaign war chest through the end of 2021, raking in more than $3.3 million in the final months of the year and boosting her cash on hand to $10.4 million — a record number for any U.S. Senate candidate in Nevada entering an election year.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/cortez-masto-banks-3-3-million-for-senate-bid-in-last-quarter-of-2021

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1481342334633533440?t=FnEImskpB2SKvmIN...

7 point improvement on GCB for Dems.

[Minnesota Mike]

FOX Poll GCB:

Republican- 44%
Democrat- 43%


https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/01/Fox_January-16-19-2022_Complete_National_Topline_January-23-Release.pdf

Last Fox poll was R+4 so a slight Dem improvement. Makes a lot more sense IMO than the Trafalgar and Rasmussen garbage we have seen recently. Republicans may very will win the House and the GCB but I don't think it will be the epic wipeout many here are assuming.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1488371054716280832

[Minnesota Mike]

New abc/wapo poll of likely 2022 voters

Gop 54
Dems 41

That is the result for certain voters not likely voters.  Registered voters, a better metric at this point, is 49 R - 42 D (not good but actually a 3 point improvement for D's since the last WAPO/ABC poll).

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21274844-2022-02-24-trend-for-release

[Minnesota Mike]

New abc/wapo poll of likely 2022 voters

Gop 54
Dems 41

That is the result for certain voters not likely voters.  Registered voters, a better metric at this point, is 49 R - 42 D (not good but actually a 3 point improvement for D's since the last WAPO/ABC poll).

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21274844-2022-02-24-trend-for-release

All wrong again and you are misleading people!

The 49-42 figure is among "Registered Voters" per RealClearPolitics Website, while the 54-41 figure is among Likely Voters.

Read what CNN's Harry Enten wrote last week that Polls are underestimating Republican Support and he expects Republicans gaining up to 5 Percentage Points when it is switched to a Likely Voter Screen.

None of it is good in this Poll for Biden!

Wrong.
https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1497800703875510274

[Minnesota Mike]

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

Ah, the old I don't like the results so they must be wrong arguement.

[Minnesota Mike]

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

Ah, the old I don't like the results so they must be wrong arguement.

Ok, well have fun believing the generic ballot is a toss-up. I'll be laughing all the way until November.

A polling error similar to 2020 means right now is a political environment of around R+7, about where I would expect.

Tie generic ballot = R lead

- As with all polls I throw this one on the pile. I don't give it extra weight/ignore because I  like/dislike the results.

- Polling errors work both ways. Just because the averages underestimated Republicans in 2020 does not mean they will in 2022.

[Minnesota Mike]

FOX News generic ballot poll: Rep 43 Dem 41.  (Q 13)

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/03/Fox_March-18-21-2022_National_Topline_March-23-Release.pdf

Last month was Rep 49 Dem 45. Interestingly support for both parties is down with undecided/other up.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1511666293467983872

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1512114317684060165

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1512083022597836800

[Minnesota Mike]

Fundraising doesn't matter.

Sure Jan.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1513971740334034953

[Minnesota Mike]

Why protect Murkowski? We’re not talking about Susan Collins here, it’s Alaska in a Biden midterm. Any reasonable choice can hold the seat

You have to protect your incumbents or nobody pays their NRSC dues.

[Minnesota Mike]

Washington Post/ ABC News poll:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21777737-2022-04-28-trend-for-release

GCB: RV

Dems 46%
Rep 45%

Up from R+7 in their Feb poll.

Just one poll, throw it in the average but hints at Democratic momentum.

[Minnesota Mike]

The burden is on abc/WAPO to explain why the hell the GB went from R+10 to D+1

Why? The poll is what the poll is. Did you demand explanations when the polls started dropping for Democrats?

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1527422590888951827

Enough said.

Because Rich Baris's word is infallible?  I had never heard of this guy until a couple weeks ago and my little bit of googling shows he is a right wing internet troll who's firm must do some polling but I couldn't find any. Not listed on 538 as far as I can tell.

If you must obsess over polling follow the averages. The Marists and Rasmussen's will cancel each other out.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1527422590888951827

Enough said.

Because Rich Baris's word is infallible?  I had never heard of this guy until a couple weeks ago and my little bit of googling shows he is a right wing internet troll who's firm must do some polling but I couldn't find any. Not listed on 538 as far as I can tell.

If you must obsess over polling follow the averages. The Marists and Rasmussen's will cancel each other out.

Isn't it weird how this right-wing guy has a far more accurate history with his polling than 538's averages, Marist, NBC, ABC/WaPo, Ipsos, Yougov, Quinnipiac, (I can go on) or any of the other legacy "trusted" outlets out there?

Does he? I have no idea, I can't find a history of his polls. Care to share a link?

[Minnesota Mike]

President Biden has a 70 % Disapproval Rating in Michigan according to a new EPIC-MRA Poll

https://www.wlns.com/news/local-news/poll-michigan-residents-want-roe-v-wade-to-stand/

Michigans want Roe vs Wade to stand by a large margin but that has no bearings at Bidens JA.

If the 70 % Disapproval Number is even close to be accurate the Election is over folks.

Very misleading.

Rating Explanation
Excellent/Good=Positive
Poor/Fair=Negative

Hell I would probably rate Biden as doing a Fair job and do not view his performance negatively.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1529068758471479297

[Minnesota Mike]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1531776039537582084?cxt=HHwWiIC9gaeM-8EqAAAA[/tweet

Both Weed parties are now on the ballot for MN02

One, two what's the difference? They will just split the protest vote between them instead of it all going to one weed candidate.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1545156380641959937