2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Vermont to early to call???

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I’ve been saying for months that the Biden campaign’s outreach to Latinos in Florida has been pathetic.  This has been obvious for a long time and they never really tried to address it.  Biden is still going to win the nation easily, but this particular aspect is a huge embarassment.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It looks to me like Biden is improving everywhere in Texas, but not by nearly enough to actually win the state.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What is going on in Michigan.
Are numbers from the big cities not in yet?

Doesn’t Michigan count election day votes before early votes?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I really don’t like that Cunningham is running a point behind Biden in NC.  It’s looking like the presidential race could come down within a point either way, and that’s bad news for the senate seat.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Biden still wins the presidency if he improves on Clinton’s margins by 1% in the midwest.  Is there any indication right now that he is failing to do this?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I’m really depressed about the Senate right now, since it looks like Cunningham is going to lose and Dems are going to underperform in Georgia.

But there’s nothing at all right now to indicated that Biden isn’t still a big favorite to win the Presidency.  He was way ahead in the exit polls in Michigan and Wisconsin, strongly ahead in Arizona, and ahead by a slightly smaller margin in Pennsylvania.  If the the early Kansas results are any indication, he looks like very likely to win NE-02, so he only has to win AZ or PA to get to 270.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Iowa exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/iowa-president-results

Biden 49%
Trump 48%

Oooh fingers crossed for Greenfield!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

1976 redux?

Actually I was thinking something similar. Definitely not the 413 landslide, RIP to that dream. But a win is a win.

Yeah. Back to the 290 map.

AZ will be a good win, just in case Biden loses WI or MI.
But if he just loses PA, then we have a tie (with NE-02 and ME-02 counted for trump).
Uggggg.

Why would you count NE-02 for Trump?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Trump has this game won unless Biden can win PA + WI.

What about AZ?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Does it seem like votes aren’t really being counted anywhere right now?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Seriously, is anyone counting ballots anywhere right now?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Trump can easily still win but if he loses the doomers, especially the big three tonight need to publicly apologize or be tossed from the site.

No matter what happens, the Republicans have kept the Senate which puts any victory lap for mainstream Dems off the table.

They defintiely haven’t kept the Senate for sure because ME and GA will require run-offs, to be decided in a few days in Maine, and several weeks in Georgia.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Clinton got a 282k lead out of Milwaukee county
Biden only has a 53k lead out Milwaukee countee

Trump only leads Wisconsin by 110k

I think Biden gets Milwaukee and wins Wisconsin somewhat closely if he gets 200k+ lead out of Milwaukee

Also right Milwaukee county is 59-38 Biden, Clinton won here 65-28. just for perspective

So he's underperforming Clinton in a city he NEEDS to win.

Call it for Trump already.

OMG, how many times do people have to explain the red mirage?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

You can see clear evidence of the red mirage in the county data in Pennsylvania and Michigan: Trump is running notably behind his 2016 margin in most major counties that have reported almost all of their vote, but way ahead of his 2016 margin in all the counties that still have a ton of vote left to count.  (This trend shows up in Wisconsin too to a slightly lesser extent.)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

You can see clear evidence of the red mirage in the county data in Pennsylvania and Michigan: Trump is running notably behind his 2016 margin in most major counties that have reported almost all of their vote, but way ahead of his 2016 margin in all the counties that still have a ton of vote left to count.  (This trend shows up in Wisconsin too to a slightly lesser extent.)

I have noticed this too.  The northern Wisconsin counties were red when the vote was like 60% in and then when they went to 100% the 3 of them all flipped.  It's clear that the second the absentee ballots are dumped into the result it's heavily Biden no matter what county they are coming from.

The NW one has a similar margin to 2016, the other 2 also have some resorts/tourists areas which in general are swinging D across the  nation.
Trump has improved in much of rural Wisconsin.

There are a number of WI counties that have finished their vote where Trump improved by a couple points.  But they are all tiny counties with <30k votes.  Compare this to Dane, which has also basically completed its count with >300k votes, where Biden has improved by 6 points on 2016.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

According to my map here on my screen, Biden only has one path left:

WI + GA

Assuming:

Biden already has AZ, NV, ME, VA
Trump already has PA, NC, MI

With so many early ballots to be counted, and with Biden only 120,000 behind in each state, there is a big chance for Biden to steal this at the bell.

Trump will have a meltdown regardless.

Biden is almost certain to win Michigan.  Look at where the remaining vote is and the patterns between election day and early vote.  He makes up his current deficit with the outstanding vote from Wayne county alone.  I think this will also be true in WI and PA, though it will be closer there.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I wonder why most networks haven’t called Maine yet...it looks to me like Biden is absolutely crushing there.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1323896943618260992

So not quite 75% needed.

Wait....there’s only 270k votes left in Philly?  It seems like it should be more like 400k from the reporting % being listed.  If it really is only 270k, that would be bad news for Biden, and also a significant turnout drop from 2016.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Biden is going to win Michigan.  I am much more confident about that than WI or PA.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

For all the early consternation about Virginia, it looks like Biden will win it by about 10%.  Some people never learn.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

As regards Pennsylvania, I think Biden will also make it. Again, look at the swings in the counties where almost all of the vote has been reported.

A 7-point swing in Pike.
A 4-point swing in Lackawanna.
A 5-point swing in Wayne.
A 4-point swing in York.
A 5-point swing in Dauphin.

Just a 1-point swing needed in PA, folks, and so many ballots pending in Philly, the suburbs, Allegheny and Eire. Barring a disaster in those counties (and, judging by Biden's performance in the suburbs elsewhere, I doubt it), he's taking PA.

Right...in evaluatiing these states with a big early vs. election day split, we essentially need to entirely ignore the statewide vote count and just look at the places where the vote has been completed.  And in every midwestern state, these numbers look pretty good for Biden (though not as good as we would have liked at the beginning of the night).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

How come everyone is excited about Wisconsin?

Isn’t there way more outstanding GOP vote?

My read is that while the outstanding vote is mostly in overall Republican counties, the composition of the mail-in vote in those counties will still favor Biden.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Will Gary Peters also win?

I think so.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Biden might actually win Michigan by 5 points.