latest Betfair odds

[Grassroots]

The only reason why Beto is being considered is because he's in the heat of the moment after an unsuccessful senate run. Once the dust settles, people will return to their senses.

[completely dead account]

The only reason why Beto is being considered is because he's in the heat of the moment after an unsuccessful senate run. Once the dust settles, people will return to their senses.

Exactly. Beto has no chance.

[Mr. Morden]

O'Rourke up to 20 for the Democratic nomination, having retaken the lead:

Democratic nomination:

O’Rourke 20.0
Harris 18.5
Warren 12.2
Biden 10.5
Sanders 7.8
Booker 6.4
Gabbard 5.9
Brown 5.3
Gillibrand 5.3
Klobuchar 4.8

Republican nomination:

Trump 73.3
Pence 11.6
Haley 5.6
Kasich 4.8
Ryan 4.3

[The Free North]

O'Rourke up to 20 for the Democratic nomination, having retaken the lead:

Democratic nomination:

O’Rourke 20.0
Harris 18.5
Warren 12.2
Biden 10.5
Sanders 7.8
Booker 6.4
Gabbard 5.9
Brown 5.3
Gillibrand 5.3
Klobuchar 4.8

That is just absurd, i'd buy the Beto-Klobuchar spread all day at those levels. What a joke.

[Mr. Morden]

O'Rourke gains some more, and Warren's down to 5th place.  Brown and Klobuchar now trading ahead of Booker and Gillibrand.

Democratic nomination:

O’Rourke 22.2
Harris 19.2
Biden 11.4
Sanders 8.5
Warren 7.0
Brown 6.8
Klobuchar 5.9
Booker 5.3
Winfrey 5.0
Gillibrand 4.8

Republican nomination:

Trump 69.2
Pence 11.6
Haley 6.2
Kasich 5.9
Romney 4.2

Four years ago today:

Bush 21.2
Rubio 15.4
Paul 11.4
Romney 11.1
Christie 10.9
Walker 10.5
Perry 8.4
Cruz 7.2
Ryan 4.0
Pence 3.4
Huckabee 3.3

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 22.7
Palin 20.3
Thune 12.0
Huckabee 9.0
Pawlenty 6.8
Gingrich 5.0
J. Bush 4.6
Barbour 4.0
Christie 3.2
Daniels 3.0
Rubio 1.9

[NewYorkExpress]

The big questions one must ask are:

Why is O'Rourke being bet on so heavily, and what idiots are still betting on Oprah? How many times does someone have to say no before people realize they won't run?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Why is O'Rourke being bet on so heavily

Because he is going to be the nominee.

[SCNCmod]

O'Rourke up to 20 for the Democratic nomination, having retaken the lead:

Democratic nomination:

O’Rourke 20.0
Harris 18.5
Warren 12.2
Biden 10.5
Sanders 7.8
Booker 6.4
Gabbard 5.9
Brown 5.3
Gillibrand 5.3
Klobuchar 4.8

This actually looks somewhat realistic. (although Warren should be lower... and Sherrod Brown should be higher).

[Progressive Pessimist]

The big questions one must ask are:

Why is O'Rourke being bet on so heavily, and what idiots are still betting on Oprah? How many times does someone have to say no before people realize they won't run?

See also: Hillary Clinton.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The big questions one must ask are:

Why is O'Rourke being bet on so heavily, and what idiots are still betting on Oprah? How many times does someone have to say no before people realize they won't run?

Betting on Gabbard (who's replaced) is also a sure way of losing your money.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren has dropped all the way to 8th place for the Dem. nomination (though of course, there’s a huge amount of clustering in that range).

Democratic nomination:

O’Rourke 22.2
Harris 19.2
Biden 11.1
Sanders 8.8
Gillibrand 6.8
Brown 6.6
Booker 6.2
Warren 5.7
Klobuchar 4.8
Gabbard 4.5
Garcetti 3.7

Republican nomination:

Trump 69.2
Pence 11.6
Haley 9.5
Kasich 5.9
Romney 4.2

Four years ago at this time (yes, Clinton to win the Dem. nomination four years ago was trading slightly higher than Trump to win the GOP nomination now):

Dems
Clinton 70.9
Warren 13.1
Biden 6.8
Gillibrand 3.8
O'Malley 3.4
Cuomo 2.8

GOP
Bush 21.2
Rubio 15.4
Romney 11.9
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.9
Walker 10.5
Cruz 8.8
Perry 8.1
Ryan 4.0
Huckabee 3.3

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

GOP nominee
Romney 23.0
Palin 19.5
Thune 13.0
Huckabee 7.8
Pawlenty 6.6
Daniels 5.0
Gingrich 5.0
Pence 4.4
Barbour 4.0
J. Bush 4.0
Christie 3.2
Rubio 2.0
Paul 1.4
Perry 1.4
Ryan 1.3

Twelve years ago at this time on Tradesports:

Democrats
Clinton 53.3
Obama 19.5
Edwards 8.7
Gore 7.3
Bayh 2.6
Richardson 1.9
Vilsack 1.8
Kerry 1.4
Clark 1.1
Biden 0.9
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.6

Republicans
McCain 50.2
Romney 14.0
Giuliani 13.6
Huckabee 9.0
Gingrich 4.5
Brownback 1.8
Rice 1.4
Hagel 1.1
Cheney 0.8
J. Bush 0.7
Pataki 0.6
Allen 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
Owens 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

Harris is back in a tie with O’Rourke for 1st place, and Castro’s exploratory announcement puts him in 11th place:

Harris 22.2
O’Rourke 22.2
Biden 14.7
Sanders 8.5
Gillibrand 6.8
Booker 6.4
Brown 5.3
Warren 5.3
Klobuchar 4.8
Gabbard 4.5
Castro 4.0

[ViaActiva]

Bernie should be considerably higher here as standard bearer for the left as Warren implodes.

[Mr. Morden]

O’Rourke’s alone in first again, and Klobuchar’s up to fifth place now:

O’Rourke 22.2
Harris 20.0
Biden 15.4
Sanders 10.0
Klobuchar 8.8
Gillibrand 6.8
Booker 6.0
Brown 5.3
Warren 4.8

Four years ago today:

Bush and Walker gain as Romney sinks (now down to 6th place).

Democrats

Clinton 71.4
Warren 13.1
Biden 6.5
O'Malley 3.4
Gillibrand 3.1
Cuomo 2.5

Republicans

Bush 27.3
Rubio 13.4
Paul 11.9
Christie 10.5
Walker 10.5
Romney 9.5
Cruz 7.0
Perry 5.7
Ryan 3.8
Huckabee 3.3

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2764367#msg2764367

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Twelve years ago today on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1079820#msg1079820

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[NewYorkExpress]

I still think betting on Beto is a fool's errand.

[Mr. Morden]

Both Trump and Pence have been dropping, with Trump now down to 61.9 to win the GOP nomination, and Pence tied with Haley for second place:

Democrats
O’Rourke 22.2
Harris 20.0
Biden 15.4
Sanders 10.0
Klobuchar 6.2
Warren 5.7
Gillibrand 5.4
Brown 5.3
Gabbard 5.3
Booker 3.8

Republicans
Trump 61.9
Haley 7.8
Pence 7.8
Kasich 5.7
Ryan 4.0
Romney 3.4
Sasse 3.3
Corker 1.9
Cotton 1.8
Rubio 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Warren’s announcement boosts her into a tie with Sanders for 5th place:

Democrats
O’Rourke 22.2
Harris 19.2
Biden 14.3
Sanders 10.5
Warren 10.5
Klobuchar 8.1
Gillibrand 6.8
Booker 5.6

Republicans
Trump 61.9
Haley 8.1
Pence 7.5
Corker 6.6
Kasich 6.0
Ryan 4.2
Romney 3.4

Four years ago at about this time:

Bush 31.0
Rubio 13.4
Paul 12.8
Romney 11.4
Walker 10.0
Christie 9.5
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.7
Ryan 3.6
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 2.8
Pence 2.8

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2772813#msg2772813

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Twelve years ago at about this time on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1087575#msg1087575

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[SCNCmod]

Warren’s announcement boosts her into a tie with Sanders for 5th place:

Democrats
O’Rourke 22.2
Harris 19.2
Biden 14.3
Sanders 10.5
Warren 10.5
Klobuchar 8.1
Gillibrand 6.8
Booker 5.6

Republicans
Trump 61.9
Haley 8.1
Pence 7.5
Corker 6.6
Kasich 6.0
Ryan 4.2
Romney 3.4

Four years ago at about this time:

Bush 31.0
Rubio 13.4
Paul 12.8
Romney 11.4
Walker 10.0
Christie 9.5
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.7
Ryan 3.6
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 2.8
Pence 2.8

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2772813#msg2772813

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Twelve years ago at about this time on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1087575#msg1087575

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I still think the current number look pretty accurate (as far as order of most likely to least likely... not necessarily the actual percentages)...

And if you accept that Trump and the 2016 election is a 1 in a million election (maybe due to his 100% name ID... his Apprentice tv show character... or whatever the reason he was able to come out of nowhere and win)... then based on the rest of the prior election stats... the nominee comes from the Top 2 in the Odds at this time in the various elections...

Which means its between O'Rourke & Harris ... which I actually think is correct (with Biden having the outside chance since he's fairly close to Harris in the odds).

[Mr. Morden]

Harris retakes the lead again, swapping places with O’Rourke.  Meanwhile, Warren’s post-announcement surge drops off, and her price declines, but Sanders declines even more, leaving Klobuchar in fourth place.

Democrats
Harris 22.2
O’Rourke 19.2
Biden 13.2
Klobuchar 8.5
Gillibrand 6.8
Warren 6.8
Brown 6.4
Sanders 6.4
Booker 5.9
Gabbard 4.5

Republicans
Trump 65.2
Haley 8.5
Pence 6.8
Kasich 5.7
Romney 4.3
Ryan 3.3
Sasse 2.5
Corker 2.4

Four years ago today:

Democratic nominee

Clinton 72.5
Warren 13.1
Biden 6.5
Gillibrand 3.1
O'Malley 3.1
Gore 2.9
Webb 2.2

Republican nominee

Bush 31.0
Rubio 13.4
Paul 12.8
Romney 11.9
Christie 9.5
Walker 9.5
Cruz 5.8
Perry 5.7
Huckabee 4.2
Ryan 3.7
Jindal 2.8
Pence 2.3
Carson 1.9
Santorum 1.9

[Mr. Morden]

Gabbard’s announcement actually boosted her to fourth place:

Democrats
Harris 25.0
O’Rourke 22.2
Biden 13.2
Gabbard 9.1
Warren 7.2
Brown 6.4
Gillibrand 6.4
Klobuchar 6.4
Sanders 5.9
Winfrey 4.3
Booker 3.6
Castro 3.6

Republicans
Trump 65.2
Haley 8.5
Pence 7.0
Kasich 5.6
Romney 3.3
Ryan 2.9
Sasse 2.6
Rubio 2.5
Corker 2.1

Four years ago at this time:

Bush 31.0
Rubio 13.4
Romney 13.1
Paul 12.8
Walker 10.0
Christie 9.5
Cruz 6.8
Perry 5.8
Huckabee 5.0

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 21.7
Palin 10.5
Daniels 10.1
Thune 10.0
Huckabee 9.3
Pawlenty 6.7
Gingrich 4.8
Pence 3.8
Huntsman 3.5
Trump 2.8
Bachmann 2.3
Barbour 2.2
Christie 2.0
Paul 1.8
Rubio 1.5

Twelve years ago at this time on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1097085#msg1097085

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand’s announcement only moves her up a little:

Democratic nominee
Harris 25.0
O’Rourke 22.2
Biden 17.9
Warren 7.8
Gabbard 7.0
Gillibrand 6.8
Klobuchar 6.0

Republican nominee
Trump 66.7
Haley 6.6
Pence 6.2
Romney 4.2
Kasich 3.4
Ryan 2.5
Corker 2.1

Four years ago at this time:

Democratic nominee
Clinton 80.0
Warren 14.5
Biden 6.5

Republican nominee
Bush 29.6
Romney 17.4
Rubio 13.4
Paul 12.8
Walker 9.5
Christie 8.8
Cruz 6.8
Perry 5.8
Huckabee 5.0

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democratic nominee
Obama 91.6
Clinton 5.5

Republican nominee
Romney 23.4
Palin 13.8
Huckabee 10.5
Thune 10.1
Daniels 8.5
Pawlenty 7.8
Gingrich 4.7
Pence 3.4
Bachmann 2.5
Barbour 2.5
Huntsman 2.1
Trump 2.0
Paul 1.9
Christie 1.7
Johnson 1.4

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Why's Bernie so low there? He's at 13 on Predict It.

[Mr. Morden]

Why's Bernie so low there? He's at 13 on Predict It.

He's low on Betfair Exchange compared to the sites with prices set by bookies, but even there, he's not above an 11% chance on any of the bookie sites:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

8 -> 1 / (1+8) = 11% chance, while 16 -> 1 / (1 + 16) = 6% chance.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Why's Bernie so low there? He's at 13 on Predict It.

He's low on Betfair Exchange compared to the sites with prices set by bookies, but even there, he's not above an 11% chance on any of the bookie sites:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

8 -> 1 / (1+8) = 11% chance, while 16 -> 1 / (1 + 16) = 6% chance.

I guess the bookies just don't like him then.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Why's Bernie so low there? He's at 13 on Predict It.

He's low on Betfair Exchange compared to the sites with prices set by bookies, but even there, he's not above an 11% chance on any of the bookie sites:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

8 -> 1 / (1+8) = 11% chance, while 16 -> 1 / (1 + 16) = 6% chance.

I guess the bookies just don't like him then.

Or people realize he is very unlikely to be the nominee, if he even runs.