Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Progressive Pessimist]

What the f*** is it going to take for this idiotic country to give our fraud of a President the approval numbers he deserves!?

About 40% of the country is so dug into believing Trump is some sort of saint and nothing will change their minds.

About 45% will never vote for him no matter what and are likewise dug in.

About 15% are wishy washy and might vote for him or might not.  Undecided voters are idiots.  These people don't know what to think from one day to the next, and nothing stays fresh in their minds.  They don't understand what's going on in the world, or our government, and they don't care to learn.  If you try to explain it to them, they either get mad or they get confused.

There are also a disproportionate number of voters within that 40% that live in states which give the candidate receiving fewer votes an electoral college advantage.

In short, our system for electing presidents is undemocratic.

Every Presidential candidate has won at least 38% of the vote, I'm resigned to accepting that, but it's those stove-touchers (as i like to call them) that are the real culprits. You're right.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Oh goodie I can’t wait to see our leader encourage another authoritarian strongman and this one is setting up detention camps for religious minorities. Lol human rights are for cucks

It's fairly appropriate as Trump's own election actually reminded me the most of Modi's.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I’m betting his approval will go right back down again after this horrible week for the markets, and his lackluster response to coronavirus.

Let's hope so. You would think that a notorious germaphobe would care more.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I’m betting his approval will go right back down again after this horrible week for the markets, and his lackluster response to coronavirus.

Let's hope so. You would think that a notorious germaphobe would care more.

Disgusting that you're wishing people would die to make "approval ratings" go down. Remember too, he was elected (remember the gay people and women and people with hijabs crying at Javits?) with a 38% approval.

Don't act like a moron. Approval doesn't mean as much as you think.

When did I say that? I said that I wish he would take the virus more seriously. If he doesn't he deserves to be looked at more negatively. I want his administration to address the contagion properly, but as usual, they just seem incapable of doing so.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I’m betting his approval will go right back down again after this horrible week for the markets, and his lackluster response to coronavirus.

Let's hope so. You would think that a notorious germaphobe would care more.

Disgusting that you're wishing people would die to make "approval ratings" go down. Remember too, he was elected (remember the gay people and women and people with hijabs crying at Javits?) with a 38% approval.

Don't act like a moron. Approval doesn't mean as much as you think.

He didn’t say he wishes people would die to make Trump’s approval go down also (the bolded part) good job showing off that bigoted side again as you like to do

-SNIP-

What does any of this have to do with anything else? We know Trump won. For all the talk of us condescending to the "real" America in rural areas, it sure seems hypocritical for you to do the same to Americans in cities.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think you guys should be a little bit ashamed.

Besides, if these polls are as crappy as they've been the last few years and they still show Trump improving, I'd be crapping razor blades on election night if I were you.

Don't worry, I will be regardless of what polls say.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The economy right now stinks.

I'm sick of the media lying about how we have the best unemployment rate in 50 years.

I agree that the media is doing Trump's job for him when it comes to the economy and his role in it, but on paper the factors were pretty spectacular until very recently.

Personally though, the economy sucks for me and my family though, we're all doing worse than ever. It's not necessarily Trump's fault, but if he is going to take credit for every aspect of the economy no matter how tenuous of a connection, maybe I should be blaming him. And that's probably true for other Americans too...but probably not enough. It's still enough of a cover for his soft support to rationalize voting for him in spite of everything else that is negative and dangerous about him and his administration.

We'll see if Trump finally takes the coronavirus seriously and can salvage the surface level aspects of the economy or not. If he doesn't he may finally lose that soft support, depending on the timing of the election of course.

[Progressive Pessimist]

IBD/TIPP, Feb. 20-29, 908 adults (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

This is Trump's lowest rating in this poll since November.

 Yeah his approvals are starting to tick down again. Incompetence during a potential crisis or actual crisis always tanks approval ratings.

 But people shouldn't be fooled, in many ways his base is stronger than ever. If Democrats don't show up, they will lose.

The problem is timing. Something like this could sink him closer to November, but won't even be remembered by that time due to it occurring now. It's partly why he won in 2016. The Access Hollywood tape would have ended him if it was released a week or so before the election that year, but instead we got Clinton's emails in national headlines at that point.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 1-3, 1500 adults including 1134 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 48 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-1)


RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 48 (+1), Trump 40 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 51 (+3), R 38 (-2)


Interesting movement in the GCB when everything else was fairly stable.

I think even if the race is tossup and not even Lean or likely R by September/October, Democrats can make the argument that they should be kept around in Congress as a check on Trump. It’s pretty effective. No president has ever been re-elected and won back full control of Congress on their coattails. Even if Trump loses the popular vote, I would consider that a landslide.

If the Democrats somehow manage to win the Senate while Trump gets re-elected, I guess that wouldn't be too terrible. Still far from ideal though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Trump is struggling in Northern New England, maybe Dems have a chance of wrapping up Trump’s back door early. It’s good that Arizona is confirmed to be a horse race.

Wouldn't be surprised at this point if Maine's 2nd District flips back.

I still wouldn't go that far though it will definitely be closer and suggests that Trump's 2016 performance in New England, and maybe even the entire Northeast, was a fluke. Hopefully his entire election was one too.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Marist/NBC News, Arizona and Ohio:

Turning to the general election in Arizona, President Donald Trump’s job rating among registered voters in the state is 48 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove.

In a hypothetical general election matchup in the state, Biden leads Trump by 1 point among registered voters, 47 percent to 46 percent — which is in within the poll’s margin of error.


In Ohio, Trump’s approval rating among registered voters is 46 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove.

And Biden leads the president by 4 points in the Buckeye State, 49 percent to 45 percent, while Sanders is ahead by 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-news-marist-polls-biden-holds-big-leads-over-sanders-n1160536


 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

Maybe it's a sign blue-collar workers and working families from the Upper Midwest are fed up of Trump and ready to let him down on November.

Please, oh please, be true!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Morning Consult has his approval of the coronavirus at 53/39. *****+14****

WTF is going on?!

I am just as horrified as you are. This country is just gullible and easily manipulated in times of crisis, I really can't think of another explanation.

As evidence, albeit the anecdotal kind, my mom's boyfriend and my neighbor are both now more upset at the Chinese than at our government's own messy response to this crisis. Trump's dangling of shiny objects in front of so many peoples' faces has yet to fail him it seems. Perhaps he is actually getting a rally-around-the-flag effect too, which is completely unearned.

At the same time though, in that Emerson poll above, Trump is still losing to both Biden and Sanders though. Are people somehow giving him credit for the response, yet wanting to vote against him anyway? I mean, I'll take it, but I don't understand it, and find it fairly oxymoronic (emphasis on the "moronic" part) if it pans out in reality.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Morning Consult has his approval of the coronavirus at 53/39. *****+14****

WTF is going on?!

Tracking polls aren’t reliable is what is going on

Fair enough. I'm just so resigned to the worst possible outcome. See my signature.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Donald Trump starts 2020 in the worst polling position since Harry Truman

For all intents and purposes, the general election campaign is underway. Yes, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is still running, but he has no realistic path to winning the Democratic nomination. That means that it's Biden vs. Trump.
And the President starts out in a very unusual place for an incumbent: behind. Trump is the first incumbent president to be trailing at this point in the general election cycle (i.e. late March in the election year) since Harry Truman in 1948.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/trump-vs-biden-poll-of-the-week/index.html

I'm still worried that his coronavirus response will be a successfully polished turd in the eyes of more Americans than ideal. I don't know how it will affect the election, especially this early on, but if Trump can get away with being perceived as having a solid response to a crisis, it undeniably helps his case for re-election. It's maddening and warped, but needs to be accepted if Democrats want to argue against it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1241151670312189953

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1241153334695919617

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1241159052861804545

I really despise the murky area that this election looks like it's going to be in for maybe even the entire year.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is so depressing. Our country of civically unaware ignoramuses will truly be the death of everything our nation ever claimed to have stood for.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is so depressing. Our country of civically unaware ignoramuses will truly be the death of everything our nation ever claimed to have stood for.

People aren't paying attention

You would think they would be in a time of national crisis. For those who are locked-down there isn't even much else to do but watch the media coverage...and have sex I suppose (are people doing both at the same time? Probably!).

[Progressive Pessimist]

I've become resigned to the fact that rally-around-the-flag effects are inherently illogical and irrational. If a crisis occurs, no matter who the Head of Government is, peoples' brains seem to just go into an instinctual state of support for that person, no matter how much they actually worsened the crisis. It's moronic, but I get it now that it seems to be happening universally across the country and world with nearly every level of government. I just want it to be over with as soon as possible if we absolutely have to have one for Trump.

It's kind of funny though-okay, not really- that Trump has been trying to get a rally-around-the-flag effect throughout his entire presidency. Whether it was the death of Baghdadi, the Soleimani situation, the opiate crisis, etc. it's what he always wanted; and our populace was finally stupid enough to give it to him. I wouldn't put it past him to try and manufacture more as the election draws closer. Hopefully they will flop like his earlier attempts though, but who even knows anymore? I did not think that Trump was capable of having one at all.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I’m not so sure that this can just be chalked up to a rally effect. Does half this country even agree that there is a crisis to rally around? Does anyone really think people on the East and West coasts are rallying around a guy basically absolving himself of all responsibility and leaving them to their own devices?

This making absolutely no sense whatsoever is why a rally effect is the only explanation.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Guys, its gonna be a cruel few weeks for democrats in terms of polling, without question. Whether it continues is still an open question.

History tells us it won't.

Generally, I would agree, but we also have to recognize the unprecedented moment we are in right now. I do NOT think it would be wise to extrapolate previous circumstances, however similar in appearance, to this.

While pandemics are unprecedented, economic crises are not.

Absolutely, but there is still the question of whether people will blame Trump for the recession as intensely as they might otherwise due to the virus causing it, whether polarization will allow him to maintain even approvals, etc etc.

I feel like I am let down by the American public enough by now to know for a fact that Trump won't bear the brunt of a recession as much as he should, especially considering how he gets credit when the economy is good. This nation is demented and warped in the way it perceives things, and it will doom us all.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I mean seriously, Conte is at 70% job approval, Macron is above 50%. This Trump popularity rise is quite low.

We have a uniquely asinine system that can allow Trump to be re-elected with a relatively paltry approval rating though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump was literally calling the virus a hoax a month or so ago. He also failed to respond in any way whatsoever when we knew of this virus in December.

Of course, and it should be a damning indication of his lack of leadership ability, but people seem to have forgotten about that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just wait a few weeks before reaching conclusions.

I know. I'm sure Trump will get overconfident again and whenever he is overconfident he makes obvious mistakes and his numbers come crashing back down. I'm just too impatient to wait for that, and too exhausted by Americans continuing to touch the stove after being burned by it so many times.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I guess we'll see how the United States having the most COVID-19 cases in the world now sits with voters. If there was any justice in the world people would be furious at Trump for at least partially helping let this happen. But then again, when don't Americans love being number one? Trump's outbreaks are the biggest, folks!

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think the key point in disaster preparation is that you should plan for the worst and hope for the best.  The failure of this administration is that they have planned for the best and hoped the worst doesn't happen.

That's actually pretty brilliantly said.

We'll see if the worst does happen to them though. I sure hope so. They deserve to be held accountable for possibly making the worst happen to the country.