Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

Has this been uploaded? I found it on the 538 site. I compared it to the last YouGov poll, which admittedly is a different poll and potentially has a different methodology.

YouGov (March 17-19)

Approve- 47% (+3)
Dissaprove- 48% (-4)

That's one of their daily snapshots of 1000 adults.  They're really bouncy.  The one I focus on (and post) is their weekly tracker for The Economist, which uses a sample of 1500 adults. 

[Bidenworth2020]

Has this been uploaded? I found it on the 538 site. I compared it to the last YouGov poll, which admittedly is a different poll and potentially has a different methodology.

YouGov (March 17-19)

Approve- 47% (+3)
Dissaprove- 48% (-4)

That's one of their daily snapshots of 1000 adults.  They're really bouncy.  The one I focus on (and post) is their weekly tracker for The Economist, which uses a sample of 1500 adults. 

Oh, ok. I suppose I am just desperate to get an idea of where his approval is at.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Has this been uploaded? I found it on the 538 site. I compared it to the last YouGov poll, which admittedly is a different poll and potentially has a different methodology.

YouGov (March 17-19)

Approve- 47% (+3)
Dissaprove- 48% (-4)

That's one of their daily snapshots of 1000 adults.  They're really bouncy.  The one I focus on (and post) is their weekly tracker for The Economist, which uses a sample of 1500 adults. 

Oh, ok. I suppose I am just desperate to get an idea of where his approval is at.

Understandable.  The best advice I can give is to follow the averages; any single poll inherently has too much potential error.  Not that this stops Atlas from overreacting to many of them....

[Bidenworth2020]

Emerson (March 18-19)


Approve- 46% (-2)
Dissaprove- 45 (+1)

Handling of Coronavirus

Approve- 49% (-)
Disapprove- 41% (-)

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult has his approval of the coronavirus at 53/39. *****+14****

WTF is going on?!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Morning Consult has his approval of the coronavirus at 53/39. *****+14****

WTF is going on?!

I am just as horrified as you are. This country is just gullible and easily manipulated in times of crisis, I really can't think of another explanation.

As evidence, albeit the anecdotal kind, my mom's boyfriend and my neighbor are both now more upset at the Chinese than at our government's own messy response to this crisis. Trump's dangling of shiny objects in front of so many peoples' faces has yet to fail him it seems. Perhaps he is actually getting a rally-around-the-flag effect too, which is completely unearned.

At the same time though, in that Emerson poll above, Trump is still losing to both Biden and Sanders though. Are people somehow giving him credit for the response, yet wanting to vote against him anyway? I mean, I'll take it, but I don't understand it, and find it fairly oxymoronic (emphasis on the "moronic" part) if it pans out in reality.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Morning Consult has his approval of the coronavirus at 53/39. *****+14****

WTF is going on?!

Tracking polls aren’t reliable is what is going on

[Progressive Pessimist]

Morning Consult has his approval of the coronavirus at 53/39. *****+14****

WTF is going on?!

Tracking polls aren’t reliable is what is going on

Fair enough. I'm just so resigned to the worst possible outcome. See my signature.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democracy Corp poll has a Biden lead of 4 points. Its a valid natl poll, it contradicts the Emerson poll, that shows Biden lead by 6 or 7.

[soundchaser]

(Folks, it’s not a national poll.)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

No General Election numbers in Georgia

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult has his approval of the coronavirus at 53/39. *****+14****

WTF is going on?!

I am just as horrified as you are. This country is just gullible and easily manipulated in times of crisis, I really can't think of another explanation.

As evidence, albeit the anecdotal kind, my mom's boyfriend and my neighbor are both now more upset at the Chinese than at our government's own messy response to this crisis. Trump's dangling of shiny objects in front of so many peoples' faces has yet to fail him it seems. Perhaps he is actually getting a rally-around-the-flag effect too, which is completely unearned.

At the same time though, in that Emerson poll above, Trump is still losing to both Biden and Sanders though. Are people somehow giving him credit for the response, yet wanting to vote against him anyway? I mean, I'll take it, but I don't understand it, and find it fairly oxymoronic (emphasis on the "moronic" part) if it pans out in reality.

One thing after another horrifies me about this President. Sometimes the President who does not fully know what he is doing (let us say Dubya with the financial crisis of 2008) becomes an effective follower when all else fails, goes along, and does right.  President Trump had a chance to do that, which would have been the best thing to do. After all, state governors such as Whitmer in Michigan, Newsom in California, and now Pritzker in Illinois (sure, they are Democrats, but does that matter? Some times the good ideas come from the Other Side, and when that happens you can consider yourself lucky) have practically shut down big chunks of their states' economies to save thousands of lives. Such is drastic. It may also be necessary.

So the President does something incredibly dishonest --  he states that the medical profession has a vaccine for the virus that will be available in a few days. No, medical science goes through testing for safety and effectiveness, and that takes months at the least. There is just too little known about it so far. Heck, we do not yet have an effective and reliable treatment for HIV/AIDS which has been making its deadly rounds for about forty years. Medical science knows far less about CORVID-19.

Just when you think that the President has run out of whoppers, he comes up with that one. I could say that I have had it with him, but that, I regret, is nothing new. He knows more than the senior military officers, the spy chiefs, diplomats, physical scientists, and now physicians and medical researchers. What's next? Is he going to claim to know more about linguistics than Noam Chomsky or about Christianity than the Pope?

If you remember the Deepwater Horizon explosion in the Gulf of Mexico under Barack Obama, the President at that time admitted early that, not being a trained engineer, he could give no technical advice on how to deal with the disaster. Obama is a smart and wise person, but like other genuinely wise and smart people he knows where his knowledge stops, and gut-feelings and his power of reasoning are simply inadequate for answering big questions best left to experts in the field. Obama took some heat for that... but he did not show himself to be a pathological liar or an abject fool.

To spoof Mark Twain -- there are lies, d@mn lies... and Trump lies!      

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 279 EC race due to fact Trump approvals have not cratered since the Coronavirus have started, since there are no deaths. There have polls showing that there is a rally around the flag effect going on.  Biden still has Ukraine scandal and there hasnt been no negative ads by either camp. Trump exploited Hilary's negatives and the polls reflected by the Democracy D internal Biden +3 to 4 says its gonna get close. This is the same lead Hilary had going into 2016, which she under polled and won PVI due to Comey letter by 1

[Dr. Arch]

It's a 279 EC race due to fact Trump approvals have not cratered since the Coronavirus have started, since there are no deaths. There have polls showing that there is a rally around the flag effect going on.  Biden still has Ukraine scandal and there hasnt been no negative ads by either camp. Trump exploited Hilary's negatives and the polls reflected by the Democracy D internal Biden +3 to 4 says its gonna get close. This I'd the se lead Hilary had going into 2016, which she under polled and won PVI due to Comey letter by 1

How do you do this?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because the same electorate is gonna come out in 2020 that came out in 2016. Hilary lost due to Walker's high approvals in WI, which is the tipping point race. Dems have replaced WI, MI with D govs and they all have 50 percent approvals.  Gary Johnson was the spoiler and took 3 percent from Hilary in the Midwest

[Dr. Arch]

Because the same electorate is gonna come out in 2020 that came out in 2016. Hilary lost due to Walker's high approvals in WI, which is the tipping point race. Dems have replaced WI, MI with D govs and they all have 50 percent approvals.  Gary Johnson was the spoiler and took 3 percent from Hilary in the Midwest

You are a gift.

[pbrower2a]

As a strict rule I do not predict polling or the stock market. I can say this: the DJIA had an impressive rally early today and then took another beating. Maybe it wasn't as severe as on some other days, but it is 911 points, and 4.55%, which is a very bad day except in contrast to the very worst ones.

The DJIA is down to where it was after the Great Fool was elected but Obama was still President.

Can the stock market make a quick rebound after a falling-knife? If there was no speculative boom before the collapse, such can happen -- as in 1987. Even after the 2008 crash, the DJIA had strong potential for an upswing because market valuations weren't crazy high. In 2007 (the real peak, with 2008 having the real crash) the real value of the DJIA had barely caught up with the peak of the Tech Boom of eight years later... and adjusted for inflation it was still lower than in 2000.

...the current rise in the stock market since 2009 is now entirely from the Obama era.

Here's the scary thing, and 1929 may be more relevant than 2008. The securities circus in 2020 as in 1929 had become the only game in town, the last area of speculative activity. The high was higher (by standards of the time in 1929) than in 2008. One could blame fraudulent lending and shady practices in real estate that had nothing to do with the valuation of Disney, GM, Exxon-Mobil, Wal*Mart, or IBM.

The falling-knife drop leaves people little indication of any potential of a quick recovery except if one looks backward. I can't say how a falling-knife ends in a bottoming-out... but if I had money available to invest in stocks, then I would find patience very tempting for a while. I have no idea where the bottom will be.

Much of Trump's appeal has been that high prices for securities are proof of his competent stewardship of the economy. What happens now?

If I am to make a general prediction, then it is that the DJIA will bottom out, after which it will rise slowly from a much-lower level. It was not so long ago that people were talking about the prospect of the Dow at 30K. Figuring

(1) that people once burned in the markets will be leery of investing in them
(2) that after 2021 the favorable treatment of stocks that has been in effect for about 40 years will be over. so the dividend yield will not be so attractive
(3) if we end up in an honest-to-Hoover depression, a comparatively liberal government will put the emphasis on the recovery of the welfare of the working class before investors. The working class generally puts its spare change into savings and not into the securities markets.

There will be bargains. A $1.00 a share dividend for a price of $20 stock looks better than a $1.50 a share dividend on a $60 stock. OK, the $60-a-share stock might be from early 2020 and the $20-a-share stock is the one that one can buy in 2024 after the economy has stabilized some.      
      

      

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why the polls are volatile is that one day you see a poll showing a Biden lead of 10 and then its contradicted by another poll Biden plus 3 is that until there are an overwhelming number of deaths, Trump isnt gonna crater with job losses and most of the job losses are seasonal restaurant workers. Although, college professors are going on line. Those are the two jobs that will lose the most from this Recession. Being a college professor making mega bucks is gonna end as online college classes is gonna make up for the student loan debt that arent being paid to schools

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

When Gold Standard Live pollsters showed Trump getting all-time-high the unskewers said that you should istead look at online trash pollsters because muh "non-response bias". Now when these trash pollsters starts to show better numbers for your favorite Boomer President, the unskewers confess "Tracking polls aren’t reliable" 


Me? I'll wait for Gold Standard. With that said, I expect people to love Boomer Populist Power. Trump is gonna print so many $$$, you all gonna be tired of printing!   

[Person Man]

When Gold Standard Live pollsters showed Trump getting all-time-high the unskewers said that you should istead look at online trash pollsters because muh "non-response bias". Now when these trash pollsters starts to show better numbers for your favorite Boomer President, the unskewers confess "Tracking polls aren’t reliable" 


Me? I'll wait for Gold Standard. With that said, I expect people to love Boomer Populist Power. Trump is gonna print so many $$$, you all gonna be tired of printing!   

At least we will have something to wipe our asses with.

[American2020]

Donald Trump starts 2020 in the worst polling position since Harry Truman

For all intents and purposes, the general election campaign is underway. Yes, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is still running, but he has no realistic path to winning the Democratic nomination. That means that it's Biden vs. Trump.
And the President starts out in a very unusual place for an incumbent: behind. Trump is the first incumbent president to be trailing at this point in the general election cycle (i.e. late March in the election year) since Harry Truman in 1948.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/trump-vs-biden-poll-of-the-week/index.html

[Progressive Pessimist]

Donald Trump starts 2020 in the worst polling position since Harry Truman

For all intents and purposes, the general election campaign is underway. Yes, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is still running, but he has no realistic path to winning the Democratic nomination. That means that it's Biden vs. Trump.
And the President starts out in a very unusual place for an incumbent: behind. Trump is the first incumbent president to be trailing at this point in the general election cycle (i.e. late March in the election year) since Harry Truman in 1948.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/trump-vs-biden-poll-of-the-week/index.html

I'm still worried that his coronavirus response will be a successfully polished turd in the eyes of more Americans than ideal. I don't know how it will affect the election, especially this early on, but if Trump can get away with being perceived as having a solid response to a crisis, it undeniably helps his case for re-election. It's maddening and warped, but needs to be accepted if Democrats want to argue against it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump approvals are at 45% to 54% and Biden's is 48 to 50%. FL, OH, and AZ are statistically within the margin of error and Trump hasn't campaigned yet. Pundits are still saying Trump is in the worst position and his polls haven't even slipped under 40, where they thought they would be, when coronavirus began. We might not even have conventions this summer, this isn't a normal election.

[Person Man]

Trump approvals are at 45% to 54% and Biden's is 48 to 50%. FL, OH, and AZ are statistically within the margin of error and Trump hasn't campaigned yet. Pundits are still saying Trump is in the worst position and his polls haven't even slipped under 40, where they thought they would be, when coronavirus began. We might not even have conventions this summer, this isn't a normal election.

He always is campaigning though

[pbrower2a]

Trump approvals are at 45% to 54% and Biden's is 48 to 50%. FL, OH, and AZ are statistically within the margin of error and Trump hasn't campaigned yet. Pundits are still saying Trump is in the worst position and his polls haven't even slipped under 40, where they thought they would be, when coronavirus began. We might not even have conventions this summer, this isn't a normal election.

He always is campaigning though

I was about to say that -- something like Castro's Cuba, where Fidel was always in campaign mode.