Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Pericles]

Those ratings are starting a new downward plunge.

[Pericles]

I will say this:  It is not good for a nation to have so little positive regard for its leaders as we have now.

If Trump is so lowly regarded, but more highly regarded than his opponent(s), that's not good news for our overall condition as a nation.

It's not good for the nation to have bad leaders, period. Leaders should up their game, not make voters lower their standards.

[Pericles]

One of the good things is the some of the greatest falls in Trump's approval is with non-college educated whites.

[Pericles]

51/42 think he's mentally unbalanced.

But Trump's a 50/50 shot to win re-election guys

I mean, that number really isn't that bad. It shows he has 42% of the vote already, and then of course at least a few more percent will rationalize that <insert any Democrat here> is somehow worse. Plus his numbers could improve overall (and on that particular question) over the next 3 years. That's an eternity in politics. Hillary went from like a 70-30 favorability to 40-60 in that timeframe.

No that's stupid. You don't have to think someone is mentally unbalanced to not support them. Trump's approval rating is 20% less than his disapproval rating-that's a hard gap to close. A lot of people are disappointed that he has abandoned his populist agenda to go for gutting Obamacare and tax cuts for the rich. Many people could be reluctant to outright call him mentally unbalanced(though may still have doubts about his judgement and stability) but still oppose him. That 42% is meaningless, the 51% is not a ceiling to Trump opposition but more likely a floor. You do have a point that the numbers could change, but of course they could also go down further. Maybe by 2020 we'll have a Democratic Congress and President Pence, or maybe Trump's approval will be 45-50%, or maybe Trump will be at a 30% approval rating and not running for re-election, or maybe something else. What we do know is right now 51% think he is mentally unstable, and that's bad for an incumbent President(Obama, Bush, Clinton wouldn't have had those numbers).

[Pericles]

51/42 think he's mentally unbalanced.

But Trump's a 50/50 shot to win re-election guys

I mean, that number really isn't that bad. It shows he has 42% of the vote already, and then of course at least a few more percent will rationalize that <insert any Democrat here> is somehow worse. Plus his numbers could improve overall (and on that particular question) over the next 3 years. That's an eternity in politics. Hillary went from like a 70-30 favorability to 40-60 in that timeframe.

No that's stupid. You don't have to think someone is mentally unbalanced to not support them. Trump's approval rating is 20% less than his disapproval rating-that's a hard gap to close. A lot of people are disappointed that he has abandoned his populist agenda to go for gutting Obamacare and tax cuts for the rich. Many people could be reluctant to outright call him mentally unbalanced(though may still have doubts about his judgement and stability) but still oppose him. That 42% is meaningless, the 51% is not a ceiling to Trump opposition but more likely a floor. You do have a point that the numbers could change, but of course they could also go down further. Maybe by 2020 we'll have a Democratic Congress and President Pence, or maybe Trump's approval will be 45-50%, or maybe Trump will be at a 30% approval rating and not running for re-election, or maybe something else. What we do know is right now 51% think he is mentally unstable, and that's bad for an incumbent President(Obama, Bush, Clinton wouldn't have had those numbers).

If someone says Trump isn't mentally unbalanced, they're clearly primed to rationalize a reason to vote for him the second they get the chance to do so. Questions like that are actually more telling than straight approval/disapproval or straight favorable/unfavorable. Remember, he had a 38-60 favorability rating in the 2016 exit poll and still got 46% of the vote.

Saying someone is mentally unbalanced is a pretty extreme thing to say, I'm pretty surprised 51% of the country thinks he's mentally unbalanced when it seems like a left-wing belief but less believable for many swing voters. If 51% think he's unbalanced, and likely more are concerned or disapprove of him elsewhere, then the crop of swing voters is on whether Trump gets to 40% not 45% or 50%. And Trump only overcame his unfavorables because Clinton had a -14% favorability rating. He won the people who disliked both him and Clinton, and probably them because of the Comey letter. The Democrats will probably nominate a better candidate next time so then he will be in deep trouble.

[Pericles]

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I don't think this will be the case for any potential Democratic nominee outside of maybe Elizabeth Warren.

Obama was subject to a four year-long smear campaign and kept his favourabilities in the 50s, so the excuse for Clinton that any Democratic nominee would have had equally bad favourabilities is simply wrong.

Yes. Clinton was a uniquely bad and unpopular candidate, and even she'd still have won without Comey and/or Russia.

[Pericles]

If someone says Trump isn't mentally unbalanced, they're clearly primed to rationalize a reason to vote for him the second they get the chance to do so. Questions like that are actually more telling than straight approval/disapproval or straight favorable/unfavorable. Remember, he had a 38-60 favorability rating in the 2016 exit poll and still got 46% of the vote.

Because he was running against someone with 41/54 favourable/unfavourable on the day of the election, which is not much better. Swing voters had an unfavourable view of both Clinton and Trump, so why would you have expected them to vote against the latter? The voters you're talking about "rationalised" a vote for Trump because his opponent had been under investigation by the FBI...

41-54 is actually quite a bit better than 38-60. And why would you "expect them" to vote for Trump either then? Yet they did. And a lot of them weren't "swing voters", they were embarrassed/shy Trump supporters.

As for Obama, he had the media on his side. Hillary didn't. Only time will tell if whoever ends up being the nominee in 2020 does or doesn't.

41/54 and 38/60 are both poor and at that point the voters who did view them favorably didn't decide the election, it was the ones who viewed then unfavorably. There is no such thing as a shy Trump effect and absolutely no evidence it actually happened. The explanation is much simpler, those voters were undecided and swinging throughout the campaign and swung to Trump at the end due to Comey. There may have been some reluctant Republicans in there who made Trump's base higher than 38% but that simply meant Clinton and Trump were really equal and she didn't have the advantage.

[Pericles]

Trump is dropping in RCP and 538. Maybe we can get to 36% if he keeps this up.

[Pericles]

I would have thought the tax bill would have helped him but he's been nosediving on RCP. He's lost two points in the last week or so.

Nothing will ever help Trump improve.

Eh. He was at 62% disapproval almost a week ago but is at 58% now after endorsing Rapin Roy Moore. That clearly rallied any wayward RINOs to his side.

 
Flynn story made it drop along with the tax bill being passed so hastily. Eventually the news cycle again tapering of and the same contingent of moderate republicans polled who swing between approve and disapprove went back to approving again.

So people have already forgotten about Manafort and Flynn, yet Atlas continues to pretend events 3 years before the election will have an impact. lol

9/11 had an impact in 2004.

[Pericles]

Obamacare had an impact in 2012. Major legislation has impacts.

[Pericles]

Trump's approval has been falling in the 538 tracker, he was at 37.8% a week ago, now he's 1.1% less than that at 36.6%. In RCP he lost 1.5% over the last week from 38.5% to 37.0%. What is causing this change?

[Pericles]

Gallup, 12/18

Approve 36 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

Tax Reform bump starting.

The only person to get a tax reform bump is Nancy Pelosi.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

[Pericles]

Rassmusen reports latest tracking poll:
Disapproval: 55%
Approval: 43%
I know a lot of people like to ignore them but I've always relied on Rassmusens surveys because their Likely voter screen is very accurate, for example they nailed the National popular vote last year.

Obama lost the House with a 46% approval. And as Alabama shows we can't be sure what electorate will turn out.

[Pericles]

Trump's 37.6% in 538 and 39.3% in RCP no reason for anyone to think he's in a good position.

[Pericles]

You guys are freaking out? Why? Just wait, he'll screw something up and when the impact of the tax bill comes about coupled with Trump and the Republican's desire to go after SS/Medicare/Medicaid and an unpopular ACA repeal again next year, just wait for it to crater.

Yep. By November, the only time it matters, he'll be at mid to low 30s.

[Pericles]

Quinnipiac got the margins very right for both New Jersey and Virginia.

Yes it is the new gold standard if anything.

[Pericles]

Trump fell to an all-time low during the tax debate(and Dems gained a landslide generic ballot lead).

[Pericles]

Trump's flatlined after the holiday bump and in RCP he lost 1% in the last week. But it looks like much of the surge was just the result of the loss of the Gallup tracking poll.

[Pericles]

FWIW I think the tax bill has become less unpopular (still net underwater, but not as bad), and the recovery from the nadir could be driven by that

Probably more that it just isn't being talked about as much. It'll still be the Obamacare of 2018.

[Pericles]

Latest CNN survey:
Approval: 43%
Disapproval: 53%
I can not put into words how devastating these numbers are for Democrats, CNN’s last poll had Trump at 35% now they have him at 43%, this is roughly in line with Rasmussen (which has him at 45%). This bump in Trump approvals from every major pollster, alongside the obvious collapse of the Democratic generic ballot lead is extremely ominous for Democratic chances in November (especially for the 10 Democratic Senator’s in Trump states).

43-53. Obama lost the House with less.

[Pericles]

New ABC/WashingtonPost 1/21 poll. Most recent poll was 11/1.

Approve: 36 (-1)
Disapprove: 58 (-1)

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1194a2TrumpsFirstYear.pdf

Public optimism on the economy has grown since their last poll, but Trump's approval remained stagnantly awful. Doesn't bode well for any strategy to raise his approvals through the economy.

Stunning collapse. I'll call it the 'shutdown slump'.

[Pericles]

PPP: 1/20-1/21
Approve - 40%(-2)
Disapprove - 56%(+3)
https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2018/01/21151254/NationalResults.pdf

Thanks @Limoliberal for finding this poll.

Behold the SHUTDOWN SLUMP! Collapsing bigly!

[Pericles]

ABC/Washington Post poll

Approve: 36% (-1)
Disapprove: 58% (-1)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2018/01/21/National-Politics/Polling/question_19698.xml?uuid=8nptHP5nEeebXbvw2jEhTQ

SHUTDOWN SLUMP.

[Pericles]

Rasmussen daily tracker:
Approve - 42%(-3)
Disapprove - 56%(+2)
http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/prez_track_jan22

SHUTDOWN SLUMP. It is a stunning collapse, if I were Trump I'd be sh**tting myself right now.

[Pericles]

538 has Trump at 39.2%.