Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Dr. Arch]

Ipsos/Reuters, Jan 14-18, 1570 adults

Approve 37 (-4)
Disapprove 59 (+5)

The 3 previous Ipsos polls were all at 41 approval and 54 or 55 disapproval.

Boom. And this is pre-shutdown.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Jan 14-18, 1570 adults

Approve 37 (-4)
Disapprove 59 (+5)

The 3 previous Ipsos polls were all at 41 approval and 54 or 55 disapproval.

Boom. And this is pre-shutdown.

Well, it's one poll; it could be an outlier.  But if it's indicative of a real trend, I suspect that the sh*thole remarks and Stormy Daniels stories are the major factors.

[Brittain33]

These numbers and swings are all over the freaking place. I can't make sense of any of it except to look at the fivethirtyeight average.

[Joey1996]

I can't emphasize how unimportant popularity polls are in terms of knowing how the election will go. Only about 9 states ever matter in the general election and we won't have any clue how they'll vote until we at least know who the Democratic nominee is.

[pbrower2a]

These numbers and swings are all over the freaking place. I can't make sense of any of it except to look at the fivethirtyeight average.

It depends upon the methodology of polling -- manner of asking questions (a synthesized voice is neutral, but often offensive), the sorts of questions asked, and perhaps the agenda.

Most of us figure that approval and disapproval relate to the likelihood of re-election. Even more significant is who votes. Elections of 2006, 2008, and 2012 (and the few elections of 2017) had very different electorates from those of 2010, 2014, and 2016 because of the composition of the electorate. Democrats need to turn out the vote to win outside of ultra-safe places for them; Republicans need to depress the vote to win outside of ultra-safe places for them. With depressed turnout, Scott Brown could win a Senate seat that Ted Kennedy once held; with high turnout, Doug Jones could win a Senate seat in a state that most people considered out of reach for Democrats.

You see it here first: I think that the seeming lock that Republicans have upon white voters in the South may be breaking. You have seen my map of deviation from the assumption of 50-50 elections nationwide with interstate polarization as was normal since 2000 at least in Presidential races. It could be that Republicans in charge of state governments have been good at offering tax breaks to outside investors but horrid at alleviating poverty. A big tax break for a big employer to relocate to Pine Bluff, Arkansas will do nothing to help out some depressed community eighty miles away. The tax breaks come with neglect of education, public health, family services, and infrastructure.

An exit poll in Alabama for the special election for an open Senate seat showed that approval and disapproval of Donald Trump was even. That Judge Roy Moore was exposed as a pedophile was not the whole story.

I am not yet predicting that the South will vote in 2000 as it did in 1976, with all former Confederate states other than Virginia voting for the Democratic nominee for President. (Virginia is no longer a Southern state in its politics, so it is no longer relevant to the argument). At this point I would expect Donald Trump to have to defend some states that Republicans have won consistently in Presidential elections beginning in 2000.

I look at the statewide polls so that I can see the shape of the next Presidential election. I often show approval ratings of Governors and US Senators as evidence of trends within states.  

[Brittain33]

These numbers and swings are all over the freaking place. I can't make sense of any of it except to look at the fivethirtyeight average.

It depends upon the methodology of polling -- manner of asking questions (a synthesized voice is neutral, but often offensive), the sorts of questions asked, and perhaps the agenda.

True, but even setting aside the gap in baselines, the swings are going +/- 3-4 points in different directions! Madness.

[KingSweden]

These numbers and swings are all over the freaking place. I can't make sense of any of it except to look at the fivethirtyeight average.

It depends upon the methodology of polling -- manner of asking questions (a synthesized voice is neutral, but often offensive), the sorts of questions asked, and perhaps the agenda.

True, but even setting aside the gap in baselines, the swings are going +/- 3-4 points in different directions! Madness.

Lotta noise, definitely. Also why LimoLiberal and King Lear belong on ignore with their “SURGE!” crap

[Brittain33]

These numbers and swings are all over the freaking place. I can't make sense of any of it except to look at the fivethirtyeight average.

It depends upon the methodology of polling -- manner of asking questions (a synthesized voice is neutral, but often offensive), the sorts of questions asked, and perhaps the agenda.

True, but even setting aside the gap in baselines, the swings are going +/- 3-4 points in different directions! Madness.

Lotta noise, definitely. Also why LimoLiberal and King Lear belong on ignore with their “SURGE!” crap

Limo Liberal has been posting both swings up and swings down, I've seen.

[pbrower2a]

The basic rule: the margin of error for most polls is usually about 4%. I make nothing of differences of less than 4%.  One might look at a long-term trend, or close to an election a composite of polls.

OK... I'd like to see polls of

Arizona
Nevada
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas

... and any state between North Dakota and Oklahoma, inclusive.

[LimoLiberal]

Harvard/Harris Poll 1/17-1/19. Previous poll was 1/13-1/16

Approve: 44 (+2)
Disapprove: 56  (-2)

Keeps going up.

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Final_HHP_Jan2018-Refield_RegisteredVoters_Topline.pdf

[Thank you for being a friend...]

Latest poll from the Real Americans' Polling Institute, sponsored by Trump Steaks:

Approve: 94 (+50)
Disapprove: 6 (-50)

Every other poll is Fake News.

[BudgieForce]

Harvard/Harris Poll 1/17-1/19. Previous poll was 1/13-1/16

Approve: 44 (+2)
Disapprove: 56  (-2)

Keeps going up.

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Final_HHP_Jan2018-Refield_RegisteredVoters_Topline.pdf

Please stop that.

[LimoLiberal]

New ABC/WashingtonPost 1/21 poll. Most recent poll was 11/1.

Approve: 36 (-1)
Disapprove: 58 (-1)

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1194a2TrumpsFirstYear.pdf

Public optimism on the economy has grown since their last poll, but Trump's approval remained stagnantly awful. Doesn't bode well for any strategy to raise his approvals through the economy.

[Mr. Morden]

New ABC/WashingtonPost 1/21 poll. Most recent poll was 11/1.

Approve: 36 (-1)
Disapprove: 58 (-1)

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1194a2TrumpsFirstYear.pdf

Public optimism on the economy has grown since their last poll, but Trump's approval remained stagnantly awful. Doesn't bode well for any strategy to raise his approvals through the economy.

Gotta love the poll questions we’re getting in the Trump era.  From that poll:

Is Trump mentally stable?
yes 48%
no 47%

Is Trump a genius?
yes 21%
no 73%

[Pericles]

New ABC/WashingtonPost 1/21 poll. Most recent poll was 11/1.

Approve: 36 (-1)
Disapprove: 58 (-1)

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1194a2TrumpsFirstYear.pdf

Public optimism on the economy has grown since their last poll, but Trump's approval remained stagnantly awful. Doesn't bode well for any strategy to raise his approvals through the economy.

Stunning collapse. I'll call it the 'shutdown slump'.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

48% of the country thinks the president is mentally stable.  How typically do presidents get reelected with those numbers?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I bet this drives him crazy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I bet this drives him crazy.

47% think he's already there.

[IceSpear]

48% of the country thinks the president is mentally stable.  How typically do presidents get reelected with those numbers?

Er, he won with 46% of the vote.

[American2020]

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https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trumps-first-year-polls_us_5a636231e4b0dc592a092bab

[IceSpear]

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https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trumps-first-year-polls_us_5a636231e4b0dc592a092bab

But the concern trolls told me that him "surging" from -20 to -15 was disastrous for the Democrats!

[Landslide Lyndon]

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https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trumps-first-year-polls_us_5a636231e4b0dc592a092bab

But the concern trolls told me that him "surging" from -20 to -15 was disastrous for the Democrats!

Sean Trende is getting very excited every time the Trumpster breaks 40% because he thinks this will save Republicans' House majority.

[LimoLiberal]

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https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trumps-first-year-polls_us_5a636231e4b0dc592a092bab

But the concern trolls told me that him "surging" from -20 to -15 was disastrous for the Democrats!

I don't know if it was that.

But *something* was disastrous for the Democrats, in terms of their collapsing generic ballot lead.

[IceSpear]

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https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trumps-first-year-polls_us_5a636231e4b0dc592a092bab

But the concern trolls told me that him "surging" from -20 to -15 was disastrous for the Democrats!

I don't know if it was that.

But *something* was disastrous for the Democrats, in terms of their collapsing generic ballot lead.

And you really think that trend will remain the same for 10 months? That'd be a first.

[BudgieForce]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trumps-first-year-polls_us_5a636231e4b0dc592a092bab

But the concern trolls told me that him "surging" from -20 to -15 was disastrous for the Democrats!

I don't know if it was that.

But *something* was disastrous for the Democrats, in terms of their collapsing generic ballot lead.

And you really think that trend will remain the same for 10 months? That'd be a first.

Sometimes I think hes trolling, sometimes I think he really is this short sighted.