Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Virginiá]

I don't believe polls when it comes to Trump. If he wins an election of 300+ electoral votes with "favorability ratings" in the upper 30s against the Clinton machine, all of this is noise.

Why is it so hard to understand that Clinton was almost as unpopular as Trump? No one trusted her and many hated her. And what ""machine""? Her campaign strategy struck out. She relied way too much on analytics.

You're making both of the candidates seem stronger than they actually were. Oh, and the national polls were not really that off - this has been covered extensively by now, but again, you just seem to be tuning out whatever electoral information makes you uncomfortable I suppose.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I don't believe polls when it comes to Trump. If he wins an election of 300+ electoral votes with "favorability ratings" in the upper 30s against the Clinton machine, all of this is noise.

So many things dumb with that comment...

[Holmes]

I don't believe polls when it comes to Trump. If he wins an election of 300+ electoral votes with "favorability ratings" in the upper 30s against the Clinton machine, all of this is noise.

You're right. Lalalalalala.

[KingSweden]

Shock Poll From The Atlanta Journal Constitution/University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs:

Georgia:

36.7% Approve
58.7% Disapprove

Yeah, no.

I think it's a little low for Trump, but in the ballpark.  I would have guessed around 40% currently.

That’s probably reasonable

If this had been a positive poll, you all wouldn't have given it any attention because of the decimals.

There are other reasons to be skeptical of this poll, and decimals is not one of them.

I don't believe polls when it comes to Trump. If he wins an election of 300+ electoral votes with "favorability ratings" in the upper 30s against the Clinton machine, all of this is noise.

Dear Christ you are dumb

[pbrower2a]

I don't believe polls when it comes to Trump. If he wins an election of 300+ electoral votes with "favorability ratings" in the upper 30s against the Clinton machine, all of this is noise.

Should Donald Trump win re-election even if he wins as in 2016, then much will have changed between now (early 2018) and late 2020, much as much seems to have changed since November 2016. You need to show why Donald Trump will recover the sort of support that he had in the South and Midwest.

You are making a prediction of something very unlikely. No recent President has ever hemorrhaged support so quickly and severely as has Trump after his election.  

Alabama elected its first Democratic Senator since the 1990s.

...Sure, I am making some assumptions. So does any projection. But I have some historical evidence behind me. Disapproval is nearly impossible to undo. Politicians can pick up some undecided voters with slick, shrewd campaigning (as Obama turned about 45% approval at his low point into about 51% of the vote in 2012), but he could pick up very few voters who ever disapproved of his Presidency.

Yes, approval ratings like "45% approve, 48% disapprove" which was common for Obama in 2011  can become 51% of the vote. But note that 100-DIS made an unambiguous and unbreakable ceiling for Obama. I recall only one poll in which Obama ever came back from 50% or greater disapproval (51% disapproval with about 45% approval) in any state in which he eventually won that state. That was Ohio, and it was close. 

OK, maybe the current bad poll for Trump in Georgia is related to him saying something stupid. Maybe. He has said other things even more stupid, like saying that there are good people on both sides in the violent confrontation between normal Americans and fascist freaks. No, I say: there is no moral equivalency between fascists and non-fascists than there is between car thieves and people who refrain from car theft.

Is this poll of Georgia an exaggeration? Even if it is, recent polls of some states with some relevant similarities of demographics suggest that it is not far out of line. I can more easily imagine Trump losing Georgia 53-46 than 63-37. But I see a widespread collapse in support for the President. The only way in which he could recover some is if the Democrats take back both Houses of Congress and define the legislative agenda... and he accedes. Jerry Brown did much the same in California (simply invert the Parties) after Proposition 13, and got away with becoming a fiscal conservative. But Brown was clever enough to say something like "I'm not conservative -- I'm cheap!"

Of course, Jerry Brown is a shrewd politician -- shrewd enough to have been both the youngest and oldest Governor of California. Of course, Donald Trump isn't much of a politician, That makes all the difference in the world. Americans will be ready for a real politician as President in 2020, even if that means someone like Obama, who is as slick a pol as there is.   

 

[NatAl]

I don't believe polls when it comes to Trump. If he wins an election of 300+ electoral votes with "favorability ratings" in the upper 30s against the Clinton machine, all of this is noise.

Should Donald Trump win re-election even if he wins as in 2016, then much will have changed between now (early 2018) and late 2020, much as much seems to have changed since November 2016. You need to show why Donald Trump will recover the sort of support that he had in the South and Midwest.

You are making a prediction of something very unlikely. No recent President has ever hemorrhaged support so quickly and severely as has Trump after his election.  

Alabama elected its first Democratic Senator since the 1990s.

...Sure, I am making some assumptions. So does any projection. But I have some historical evidence behind me. Disapproval is nearly impossible to undo. Politicians can pick up some undecided voters with slick, shrewd campaigning (as Obama turned about 45% approval at his low point into about 51% of the vote in 2012), but he could pick up very few voters who ever disapproved of his Presidency.

Yes, approval ratings like "45% approve, 48% disapprove" which was common for Obama in 2011  can become 51% of the vote. But note that 100-DIS made an unambiguous and unbreakable ceiling for Obama. I recall only one poll in which Obama ever came back from 50% or greater disapproval (51% disapproval with about 45% approval) in any state in which he eventually won that state. That was Ohio, and it was close. 

OK, maybe the current bad poll for Trump in Georgia is related to him saying something stupid. Maybe. He has said other things even more stupid, like saying that there are good people on both sides in the violent confrontation between normal Americans and fascist freaks. No, I say: there is no moral equivalency between fascists and non-fascists than there is between car thieves and people who refrain from car theft.

Is this poll of Georgia an exaggeration? Even if it is, recent polls of some states with some relevant similarities of demographics suggest that it is not far out of line. I can more easily imagine Trump losing Georgia 53-46 than 63-37. But I see a widespread collapse in support for the President. The only way in which he could recover some is if the Democrats take back both Houses of Congress and define the legislative agenda... and he accedes. Jerry Brown did much the same in California (simply invert the Parties) after Proposition 13, and got away with becoming a fiscal conservative. But Brown was clever enough to say something like "I'm not conservative -- I'm cheap!"

Of course, Jerry Brown is a shrewd politician -- shrewd enough to have been both the youngest and oldest Governor of California. Of course, Donald Trump isn't much of a politician, That makes all the difference in the world. Americans will be ready for a real politician as President in 2020, even if that means someone like Obama, who is as slick a pol as there is.   

 

The survey simply should not be taken into account because it is from a university, Quinnipiac and the university surveys always show a tendency to terrible numbers for Trump, you always underestimate the real value of clearly biased surveys.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't believe polls when it comes to Trump. If he wins an election of 300+ electoral votes with "favorability ratings" in the upper 30s against the Clinton machine, all of this is noise.

Should Donald Trump win re-election even if he wins as in 2016, then much will have changed between now (early 2018) and late 2020, much as much seems to have changed since November 2016. You need to show why Donald Trump will recover the sort of support that he had in the South and Midwest.

You are making a prediction of something very unlikely. No recent President has ever hemorrhaged support so quickly and severely as has Trump after his election.  

Alabama elected its first Democratic Senator since the 1990s.

...Sure, I am making some assumptions. So does any projection. But I have some historical evidence behind me. Disapproval is nearly impossible to undo. Politicians can pick up some undecided voters with slick, shrewd campaigning (as Obama turned about 45% approval at his low point into about 51% of the vote in 2012), but he could pick up very few voters who ever disapproved of his Presidency.

Yes, approval ratings like "45% approve, 48% disapprove" which was common for Obama in 2011  can become 51% of the vote. But note that 100-DIS made an unambiguous and unbreakable ceiling for Obama. I recall only one poll in which Obama ever came back from 50% or greater disapproval (51% disapproval with about 45% approval) in any state in which he eventually won that state. That was Ohio, and it was close. 

OK, maybe the current bad poll for Trump in Georgia is related to him saying something stupid. Maybe. He has said other things even more stupid, like saying that there are good people on both sides in the violent confrontation between normal Americans and fascist freaks. No, I say: there is no moral equivalency between fascists and non-fascists than there is between car thieves and people who refrain from car theft.

Is this poll of Georgia an exaggeration? Even if it is, recent polls of some states with some relevant similarities of demographics suggest that it is not far out of line. I can more easily imagine Trump losing Georgia 53-46 than 63-37. But I see a widespread collapse in support for the President. The only way in which he could recover some is if the Democrats take back both Houses of Congress and define the legislative agenda... and he accedes. Jerry Brown did much the same in California (simply invert the Parties) after Proposition 13, and got away with becoming a fiscal conservative. But Brown was clever enough to say something like "I'm not conservative -- I'm cheap!"

Of course, Jerry Brown is a shrewd politician -- shrewd enough to have been both the youngest and oldest Governor of California. Of course, Donald Trump isn't much of a politician, That makes all the difference in the world. Americans will be ready for a real politician as President in 2020, even if that means someone like Obama, who is as slick a pol as there is.   

 

The survey simply should not be taken into account because it is from a university, Quinnipiac and the university surveys always show a tendency to terrible numbers for Trump, you always underestimate the real value of clearly biased surveys.

Well, at least I know quickly to add you to my ignore list.

[NatAl]

I don't believe polls when it comes to Trump. If he wins an election of 300+ electoral votes with "favorability ratings" in the upper 30s against the Clinton machine, all of this is noise.

Should Donald Trump win re-election even if he wins as in 2016, then much will have changed between now (early 2018) and late 2020, much as much seems to have changed since November 2016. You need to show why Donald Trump will recover the sort of support that he had in the South and Midwest.

You are making a prediction of something very unlikely. No recent President has ever hemorrhaged support so quickly and severely as has Trump after his election.  

Alabama elected its first Democratic Senator since the 1990s.

...Sure, I am making some assumptions. So does any projection. But I have some historical evidence behind me. Disapproval is nearly impossible to undo. Politicians can pick up some undecided voters with slick, shrewd campaigning (as Obama turned about 45% approval at his low point into about 51% of the vote in 2012), but he could pick up very few voters who ever disapproved of his Presidency.

Yes, approval ratings like "45% approve, 48% disapprove" which was common for Obama in 2011  can become 51% of the vote. But note that 100-DIS made an unambiguous and unbreakable ceiling for Obama. I recall only one poll in which Obama ever came back from 50% or greater disapproval (51% disapproval with about 45% approval) in any state in which he eventually won that state. That was Ohio, and it was close. 

OK, maybe the current bad poll for Trump in Georgia is related to him saying something stupid. Maybe. He has said other things even more stupid, like saying that there are good people on both sides in the violent confrontation between normal Americans and fascist freaks. No, I say: there is no moral equivalency between fascists and non-fascists than there is between car thieves and people who refrain from car theft.

Is this poll of Georgia an exaggeration? Even if it is, recent polls of some states with some relevant similarities of demographics suggest that it is not far out of line. I can more easily imagine Trump losing Georgia 53-46 than 63-37. But I see a widespread collapse in support for the President. The only way in which he could recover some is if the Democrats take back both Houses of Congress and define the legislative agenda... and he accedes. Jerry Brown did much the same in California (simply invert the Parties) after Proposition 13, and got away with becoming a fiscal conservative. But Brown was clever enough to say something like "I'm not conservative -- I'm cheap!"

Of course, Jerry Brown is a shrewd politician -- shrewd enough to have been both the youngest and oldest Governor of California. Of course, Donald Trump isn't much of a politician, That makes all the difference in the world. Americans will be ready for a real politician as President in 2020, even if that means someone like Obama, who is as slick a pol as there is.   

 

The survey simply should not be taken into account because it is from a university, Quinnipiac and the university surveys always show a tendency to terrible numbers for Trump, you always underestimate the real value of clearly biased surveys.

Well, at least I know quickly to add you to my ignore list.

Can you refute my argument? Quinnipiac is practically never in line with other pollsters when it comes to Trump's approval and has to show ridiculous values. 32% approval and 40% disapproval of Republicans?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Quinnipiac got the margins very right for both New Jersey and Virginia.

[Pericles]

Quinnipiac got the margins very right for both New Jersey and Virginia.

Yes it is the new gold standard if anything.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, Jan 8-11, 600 RV (change from October)

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

[Virginiá]

Can you refute my argument? Quinnipiac is practically never in line with other pollsters when it comes to Trump's approval and has to show ridiculous values. 32% approval and 40% disapproval of Republicans?

In regards to the generic poll - I certainly don't think Democrats are up +17 as that last Q poll showed, but I don't think they are so inaccurate that Democrats are only up single digits. For a Q+17, I'd expect something more like +10 or +12. Also, for the record, Quinipiac got Virginia and New Jersey right last year. It was the most accurate poll for Virginia.

As for approval polls - Q is generous in terms of low Trump approvals, but not that far out of the mainstream:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

36 - 59% disapproval is in line with what a number of other polls were showing. Of course, not quite like YouGove or Rasmussen. Looking at that list, there is a little something for everyone. Democrats can rejoice that Trump remains deeply unpopular, and Trump supporters can take solace in regularly timed Rasmussen polls that """prove""" Trump is beloved by America, despite his egregiously offensive behavior and unpopular policy decisions.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Emerson, Jan 8-11, 600 RV (change from October)

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

Senator Roy Moore confirms Emerson's numbers.

[IceSpear]

IBD/TIPP, Jan 2-10, 901 adults (change from Nov 27-Dec 4)

Approve 35 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (-1)

LOL at their "analysis"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good sign to never take them seriously.

[pbrower2a]

The old map (but updated!) showing approvals for all 50 states, but nothing to do with Cook PVI:

This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

46-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

The near-ties in Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi; and Tennessee;  the edge that I see against Trump in Louisiana; and his abysmal approval ratings in Georgia all suggest a collapse of Trump support within the Mountain and Deep South. This is before I discuss such states as Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia  that are or have been marginally "Southern" in their politics. This is more recent (no earlier than October) than what I see for thirty states for which I have not shown contrasts between 'normal' results in a 50-50 election according to their Cook

*((((((((( CV&U

(sorry, the cat jumped upon my keyboard)

PVI ratings in some more recent exercises.  This almost suggests a reversion to the situation with Carter in 1976, except that the demographic patterns of voting suggest something different.

The election of Senator Doug Jones suggests that a pattern of educated white suburbanites drifting away from the GOP in 2006, 2008, and 2012 in the North and West that did not happen in the South in those elections may be happening in the South. Jones did well among the presumable 'high-information' voters in such places as Huntsville and Tuscaloosa in December. To be sure, that is but one election, and any trend can reverse quickly.

Meanwhile, things are not going well for Trump 'Up North'. One poll of Iowa showed disapproval for Trump at 60% and another showed disapproval at 51%; were I to make a guess than to rigidly follow my model (which I must do for the sake of consistency) his disapproval in Iowa is probably about 55%, which suggests that Trump would get no more than about 45% of the vote in Iowa. That is about what John McCain got in 2008. Michigan and New Hampshire, the two closest states for Trump in 2016, show intense disapproval for President Trump.

Sure, I'd like more data. Texas, which is marginally "Southern" because it straddles cultural regions of America and is not a region in itself despite its size, might confirm or deny my conjectures. I have seen polls of Texas in which Trump is underwater, and I would not be surprised to see such again.  I still want to see new polls of Ohio and Pennsylvania, for which I have nothing, and for Arizona and Nevada, for which polling is old. Not that there are any big electoral prizes in the states of the High Plains and Badlands from Montana to Oklahoma, I have a big hole for recent polling in such states.

Would you be surprised to see South Carolina underwater for Trump at this stage? I wouldn't.

OK, you say -- maybe the Georgia poll is an exaggeration. Tough luck on that. It follows a shocking statement by the President with racist overtones about some countries and people from them. But in my experience in watching elections, shocks stick. Never mind that President Trump could hardly do worse with the black vote in 2020 than he did in 2016 -- the poll shows white people turning against him. Racism is a dying phenomenon in America, and the President should have kept his mouth shut in the presence of people who could confirm the "$#!+hole" remark. He can't quite lie his way out of it.  

At this point I see the 2020 election looking like one in which the Democrat has a chance of winning every state that any Democratic nominee for President since 1976, which implies a vote for even an average Democratic nominee that combines Carter and Obama wins while picking off Arizona.    

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Can anyone find a map that shows Bush's approvals in each state?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Can anyone find a map that shows Bush's approvals in each state?

Look at CNN exit polls for 2004 and 2008 approvals.

[King Lear]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 46%
Disapproval: 53%
These numbers are really bad for Democrats, Rassmusen is the most accurate pollster (it only surveys Likely Voters) and they have been consistently showing that Donald Trump has consolidated his support from 2016, thus severely complicating Democrats path to 270 in 2020.

[BudgieForce]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 46%
Disapproval: 53%
These numbers are really bad for Democrats, Rassmusen is the most accurate pollster (it only surveys Likely Voters) and they have been consistently showing that Donald Trump has consolidated his support from 2016, thus severely complicating Democrats path to 270 in 2020.

Wut?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 46%
Disapproval: 53%
These numbers are really bad for Democrats, Rassmusen is the most accurate pollster (it only surveys Likely Voters) and they have been consistently showing that Donald Trump has consolidated his support from 2016, thus severely complicating Democrats path to 270 in 2020.

Wut?

KingLear is a concern troll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, if the election is next month, but the races are clearing Leaning Democratic and the governor map favors Democrats, that means the House level, where a lot of these Latino enriched districts where GOP congressmen lies are primed for pickup by D's all over CA, FL, AZ, NV,NJ, PA, WI and MI, NY, etc

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 46%
Disapproval: 53%
These numbers are really bad for Democrats, Rassmusen is the most accurate pollster (it only surveys Likely Voters) and they have been consistently showing that Donald Trump has consolidated his support from 2016, thus severely complicating Democrats path to 270 in 2020.

Amateur troll.

[KingSweden]

I don't believe polls when it comes to Trump. If he wins an election of 300+ electoral votes with "favorability ratings" in the upper 30s against the Clinton machine, all of this is noise.

Should Donald Trump win re-election even if he wins as in 2016, then much will have changed between now (early 2018) and late 2020, much as much seems to have changed since November 2016. You need to show why Donald Trump will recover the sort of support that he had in the South and Midwest.

You are making a prediction of something very unlikely. No recent President has ever hemorrhaged support so quickly and severely as has Trump after his election.  

Alabama elected its first Democratic Senator since the 1990s.

...Sure, I am making some assumptions. So does any projection. But I have some historical evidence behind me. Disapproval is nearly impossible to undo. Politicians can pick up some undecided voters with slick, shrewd campaigning (as Obama turned about 45% approval at his low point into about 51% of the vote in 2012), but he could pick up very few voters who ever disapproved of his Presidency.

Yes, approval ratings like "45% approve, 48% disapprove" which was common for Obama in 2011  can become 51% of the vote. But note that 100-DIS made an unambiguous and unbreakable ceiling for Obama. I recall only one poll in which Obama ever came back from 50% or greater disapproval (51% disapproval with about 45% approval) in any state in which he eventually won that state. That was Ohio, and it was close. 

OK, maybe the current bad poll for Trump in Georgia is related to him saying something stupid. Maybe. He has said other things even more stupid, like saying that there are good people on both sides in the violent confrontation between normal Americans and fascist freaks. No, I say: there is no moral equivalency between fascists and non-fascists than there is between car thieves and people who refrain from car theft.

Is this poll of Georgia an exaggeration? Even if it is, recent polls of some states with some relevant similarities of demographics suggest that it is not far out of line. I can more easily imagine Trump losing Georgia 53-46 than 63-37. But I see a widespread collapse in support for the President. The only way in which he could recover some is if the Democrats take back both Houses of Congress and define the legislative agenda... and he accedes. Jerry Brown did much the same in California (simply invert the Parties) after Proposition 13, and got away with becoming a fiscal conservative. But Brown was clever enough to say something like "I'm not conservative -- I'm cheap!"

Of course, Jerry Brown is a shrewd politician -- shrewd enough to have been both the youngest and oldest Governor of California. Of course, Donald Trump isn't much of a politician, That makes all the difference in the world. Americans will be ready for a real politician as President in 2020, even if that means someone like Obama, who is as slick a pol as there is.   

 

The survey simply should not be taken into account because it is from a university, Quinnipiac and the university surveys always show a tendency to terrible numbers for Trump, you always underestimate the real value of clearly biased surveys.

Well, at least I know quickly to add you to my ignore list.

Can you refute my argument? Quinnipiac is practically never in line with other pollsters when it comes to Trump's approval and has to show ridiculous values. 32% approval and 40% disapproval of Republicans?

It’s an insane argument. Q-PAC May be an outlier on the downside, but a President in the roughly 37-39 range you would expect to have some polls showing around 40-41 and others in the mid to low 30s. That’s why you do averages.

If you have a critique about the demography of Q-Pac’s Sample then that’s one thing, but dismissing them purely for being a university is something completely else

[pbrower2a]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 46%
Disapproval: 53%
These numbers are really bad for Democrats, Rassmusen is the most accurate pollster (it only surveys Likely Voters) and they have been consistently showing that Donald Trump has consolidated his support from 2016, thus severely complicating Democrats path to 270 in 2020.

Rasmussen is often unusually freakish in flattering polls of President Trump... but all that you need look at is the level of disapproval.  This is dreadful for the President. Even at this level of disapproval one can reasonably expect a ceiling of 47% of the popular vote in a two-way election. Disapproval is next-to-impossible to shake.

Rasmussen polls are incredibly inconsistent between each other, and not over mass responses to shocking events. If this is the best that a Trump supporter can come up with, then what hope can anyone reasonably have in him getting a second term? Yes, sure, he did win with 46% of the national vote in 2016, but that is unlikely to be repeated.

By the way -- what did Donald Trump do to bump his approval rating so high? Just look at the statewide polling in recent days.

[LimoLiberal]

Rasmussen 1/14

Approve: 46
Disapprove: 52

Keeps going up, sh*thole and all.