Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Brittain33]

That MN poll was awful.  Definitely not an accurate poll.  I think their methodology was off somehow.  They showed 70% approval for Trump in northern MN.  That should’ve been enough to make the Strib toss the poll in the garbage.

Yes, because every good poll for Trump is "inaccurate".

You raise a very accurate point LimoLiberal, in that I fear many other Democrats here have a tendency to ignore date that conflicts with their preconceived notions. This behavior devastated our Party in 2010, 2014, and 2016, when Democrats put their heads in the sand and pretended that the Republicans couldn’t win, and then Election Day came and they were all so shocked that they lost.

Oh Lordy

[Pericles]

Trump fell to an all-time low during the tax debate(and Dems gained a landslide generic ballot lead).

[Pericles]

Trump's flatlined after the holiday bump and in RCP he lost 1% in the last week. But it looks like much of the surge was just the result of the loss of the Gallup tracking poll.

[KingSweden]

I like how Reuters goes down a point yet it’s indicative of a surge. Onto ignore you go, King Lear.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult weekly tracker, 1993 RV

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 23
Strongly disapprove 37

[BudgieForce]

I'm not sure why Morning Consult is always so favorable for Trump. The worst I think they've ever been for him is -10.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm not sure why Morning Consult is always so favorable for Trump. The worst I think they've ever been for him is -10.

Yes, they've been generally R-friendly.  Perhaps it's their weighting.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm not sure why Morning Consult is always so favorable for Trump. The worst I think they've ever been for him is -10.

Yes, they've been generally R-friendly.  Perhaps it's their weighting.

Yup, although Rassy is also terrible.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The more accurate poll is the special election in Wisconsin that the Republicans just lost yesterday.

[KingSweden]

I think it’s fair to say, based on polls that have a variety of baselines and ranges for Trump over the last few months, that he’s recovered from his December nadir. Still don’t think he’s super well positioned since I’m not lending much credence to f’ing Zogby and Rassy, but I think we saw his absolute floor (barring any major events) last month.

[BudgieForce]

It's bothersome that none of the big pollsters outside of Quinnipiac and PPP have released polls the last couple of weeks.

[KingSweden]

It's bothersome that none of the big pollsters outside of Quinnipiac and PPP have released polls the last couple of weeks.

Yeah that doesn’t help.

I generally think everyone should scrap daily polls and go to weekly or monthly polls, though.

[BudgieForce]

It's bothersome that none of the big pollsters outside of Quinnipiac and PPP have released polls the last couple of weeks.

Yeah that doesn’t help.

I generally think everyone should scrap daily polls and go to weekly or monthly polls, though.

We'd certainly have less hot takes if everyone went to weekly.

[KingSweden]

Q-PAC SURGE to 38/57 per DKE! Glorious Trump tax reform bump to -19 approval net! Dems are totally screwed you guys

It's bothersome that none of the big pollsters outside of Quinnipiac and PPP have released polls the last couple of weeks.

Yeah that doesn’t help.

I generally think everyone should scrap daily polls and go to weekly or monthly polls, though.

We'd certainly have less hot takes if everyone went to weekly.

I’d mind the hot takes less if they weren’t so puerile and context free

[pbrower2a]

Anybody have a reasonable explanation for the Trump surge. He help pass an unpopular tax bill before christmas and since then we have had "Fire and Fury", we have had the public Bannon feud, we have had "sh*tholes", we have had the "very stable genius", we've had the "bigger button" tweet and we have probably had a bunch of other idiotic stuff that I have already forgotten about.

Don't tell it is just statistical noise. There has definitely been a clear uptick in Trumps numbers.

So apparently the tax bill helped him instead of hurting him.

Apparently the Bannon feud didn't alienate the Deplorables.

Apparently the inane amount of hilariously idiotic events didn't hurt him either.

Instead he has surged.

The only reasonable explanation I can come up with is that Trump sceptics are returning BECAUSE of the tax cuts and the Bannon feud, while the deplorables remain loyal to their dear leader regardless of what happens. This further illustrates my point that you can't use Trumps poor approval numbers to predict a democratic 2020 landslide at all. The republican Trump sceptics will find their excuse to vote for him while holding their nose, just as they did in 2016.

There are people who like the rudeness of Donald Trump for calling some Third-World countries (and by extension disparaging people from those countries) "$#!+holes". There are people who love Donald Trump for raising taxes on people who have upper-middle incomes who pay high property-tax bills. There are people who love a President for showing scientists and academics that superstition and ignorance are equal to learning and reason. There are people who see Donald Trump for doing things that other Presidents would never dream of doing because most Presidents are too bourgeois to do so.

Yes, that is all deplorable. Donald Trump is a demagogue, and demagogues flourish among people who have more desire to have their Schadenfreude satisfied  than common sense or political decency. Democracy does not thrive when demagogues (whether Hugo Chavez or Donald Trump) get power. But for a time some get wish fulfillment.

[KingSweden]

FWIW I think the tax bill has become less unpopular (still net underwater, but not as bad), and the recovery from the nadir could be driven by that

[Pericles]

FWIW I think the tax bill has become less unpopular (still net underwater, but not as bad), and the recovery from the nadir could be driven by that

Probably more that it just isn't being talked about as much. It'll still be the Obamacare of 2018.

[Brittain33]

FWIW I think the tax bill has become less unpopular (still net underwater, but not as bad), and the recovery from the nadir could be driven by that

I think this is very possible. We're hearing less about the SALT cap and more about Wal*Mart raising wages and AT&T giving bonuses these days.

[pbrower2a]

Next thing you know President Trump will take credit for the coming of spring. (OK, if we get an early taste of summer in March as in 2012, he will still deny global warming, but that's a different story)/

It turns out that market conditions compelled Wal*Mart to quit underpaying its workers so badly, and that the bonuses at AT&T were negotiated in a union contract.

[KingSweden]

FWIW I think the tax bill has become less unpopular (still net underwater, but not as bad), and the recovery from the nadir could be driven by that

Probably more that it just isn't being talked about as much. It'll still be the Obamacare of 2018.

Bear in mind we saw the same swings in VA and Alabama before the bill passed/the approval sank so low.

Next thing you know President Trump will take credit for the coming of spring.

It turns out that market conditions compelled Wal*Mart to quit underpaying its workers so badly, and that the bonuses at AF&T were negotiated in a union contract.

True that’s a buried lede

[LimoLiberal]

Congrats Joe Manchin

Trump approval rating in West Virginia:
Approve: 51 (+3)
Disapprove: 48

Down from +21 in January 2017.
YIKES

 Tax Bill approval ("will it help average West Virginians?")
Help - 38
Hurt - 27
No effect - 19


http://www.wsaz.com/content/news/WVa--469737723.html

[KingSweden]

Congrats Joe Manchin

Trump approval rating in West Virginia:
Approve: 51 (+3)
Disapprove: 48

Down from +21 in January 2017.
YIKES

 Tax Bill approval ("will it help average West Virginians?")
Help - 38
Hurt - 27
No effect - 19


http://www.wsaz.com/content/news/WVa--469737723.html

!!!!

[LimoLiberal]

Congrats Joe Manchin

Trump approval rating in West Virginia:
Approve: 51 (+3)
Disapprove: 48

Down from +21 in January 2017.
YIKES

 Tax Bill approval ("will it help average West Virginians?")
Help - 38
Hurt - 27
No effect - 19


http://www.wsaz.com/content/news/WVa--469737723.html

!!!!

Makes about as much sense as the Minnesota poll certain posters were trashing. Let's see how they react to this one.

[Virginiá]

That WV approval seems more like what it would be if Trump was at a steady 30-33% nationally, which he isn't.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Congrats Joe Manchin

Trump approval rating in West Virginia:
Approve: 51 (+3)
Disapprove: 48

Down from +21 in January 2017.
YIKES

 Tax Bill approval ("will it help average West Virginians?")
Help - 38
Hurt - 27
No effect - 19


http://www.wsaz.com/content/news/WVa--469737723.html

Shocking! Workers don't like the tax cuts...