Spanish elections and politics

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

With a handy seat extrapolator I found on the internet, the results would be:

Cs: 108
PP: 83
PSOE: 80
UP 53

ERC: 10
PDECat: 7
PNV: 6
Bildu 2
CC: 1

Where can this extrapolator be found?

[Mike88]

Well, I guess El País is starting to do its polls on their offices. Either that or they are outright making them up.

Metroscopia-El País poll

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/02/08/actualidad/1518116526_354844.html



With a handy seat extrapolator I found on the internet, the results would be:

Cs: 108
PP: 83
PSOE: 80
UP 53

ERC: 10
PDECat: 7
PNV: 6
Bildu 2
CC: 1

Cs-PP and Cs-PSOE both get a majority. In terms of regional winners:

PP: Galicia, Navarra, Ceuta, Melilla
PSOE: Andalucia, Extremadura
PNV: Basque Country
Unsure: Castille-Leon, Castille-La Mancha. The former probably leans Cs, the latter leans PP.
Cs: Everything else

Results by province.

Yeah, C's results seem very exaggerated. Metroscopia has a history of overpolling either C's and Podemos.

[Former President tack50]

With a handy seat extrapolator I found on the internet, the results would be:

Cs: 108
PP: 83
PSOE: 80
UP 53

ERC: 10
PDECat: 7
PNV: 6
Bildu 2
CC: 1

Where can this extrapolator be found?

http://electomania.es/electocalculadora-3-0-%C2%A1ahora-con-mapa-integrado/

Here it is. It's an Excel spreadsheet where you put the percentages for each party and it extrapolates the Congress, Senate and even does a map.

The only downside is that it seems to be based off the 2015 election, not the 2016 one. Though it at least does add up IU and Podemos as UP.

[Former President tack50]

Another poll, this time from Gad3-ABC. Seems like the situation has stabilized.

[Mike88]

Another poll, this time from Gad3-ABC. Seems like the situation has stabilized.

Yeah, it seems to stabilize but this poll is bucking the trend a bit: a PP increase and a slight C's decrease. We'll see if another poll confirms this.

[Former President tack50]

Apparently that poll also had a 2nd part, this time about the 2019 local elections. They polled the 52 provincial capitals and claim that PP+Cs would be able to get up to 35 of them. There are no date on the rest for some reason. The map looks like this



PP hold: Santander, Leon, Palencia, Burgos, Logroño, Guadalajara, Cuenca, Albacete, Cáceres, Badajoz, Jaén, Granada, Málaga, Almería, Ceuta, Melilla, Murcia

Cs gain from PP: Ávila

PP gain from PSOE: Oviedo, Huesca, Valladolid, Castellón, Ciudad Real, Córdoba

PP gain from nationalists: Palma de Mallorca (Technically PSOE held the mayor for 2 years and Mes for the other 2 as part of their deal, it was a tie)

PP gain from IU/Podemos: Zamora, Madrid, Cádiz

Cs gain from nationalists: Valencia (Compromís)

Cs gain from PSOE: Alicante

PSOE hold (but PP-Cs would have more councillors): Toledo, Sevilla

Overall number of councillors:



Since they didn't cover cities where PP+Cs wouldn't get a majority, I'll try to do them but these are just guesses:

A Coruña: Safe Podemos hold
Pontevedra: Safe BNG hold
Ourense: Likely Podemos hold
Lugo: Safe PSOE hold

IMO Ourense could change hands inside the block (to PSOE) and Lugo is the likeliest PP-Cs pickup. The other 2 are safe

Bilbao: Safe PNV hold (literally held by PNV since Spain became a democracy)
San Sebastián: Lean PNV hold
Vitoria: Lean PP gain

Keep in mind that while Bilbao is titanium PNV, the other 2 are very hard to predict because of post electoral deals.

Lleida: Tossup between PDECat and PSC
Girona: Safe PDECat hold
Tarragona: Lean PSOE hold
Barcelona: Lean Podemos hold

Again, other than Girona (and to a lesser extent Barcelona) the others are very hard to predict because of post electoral alliances. It will depend on how much the nationalist axis influences the standard left-right axis

Pamplona: Lean UPN gain
Soria: Safe PSOE hold
Segovia: Safe PSOE hold
Huelva: Safe PSOE hold

Again, Pamplona is a bit hard to predict, the other 3 are extremely safe for PSOE (in Huelva's case only if PP-Cs don't get a majority). They even got an overall majority in Soria and Segovia in 2015!

Las Palmas de Gran Canaria: Lean PP gain.
Santa Cruz de Tenerife: Likely CC hold

Santa Cruz will probably stay with CC, probably through CC-PP. In Las Palmas PP-Cs doesn't get a majority but they could probably count on UxGC, a PP split. Or in CC if it somehow gets representation but that seems very unlikely.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Are C's always going to vote with PP, or could they support a PSOE administration?

Also, I thought Podemos didn't exist at a local level, and they had all sorts of quasi-independent municipal lists theu sponsered?

[Former President tack50]

There could be PSOE-Cs alliances. Particularly in places where PSOE is the largest party but not just limited to those. It would depend more on local issues I guess.

And yes, Podemos doesn't technically exist at the local level but let's be honest, most people who vote for one of those independent lists probably knows they are voting for Podemos. But yes, they can get very complicated.

Not sure if they'll do that again. I guess it will depend on the local specifics, their relation with the local IU branch, etc.

[TheSaint250]

Tack, could you discuss a little bit about Cs's platform and placement on the political spectrum, if you don't mind?

[Former President tack50]

Tack, could you discuss a little bit about Cs's platform and placement on the political spectrum, if you don't mind?

I thought everyone already knew about them. But sure, no problem.

Economically they are quite pro-free market. So they support lower taxes, entrepeneurs, more flexible labour laws and the like. One of their key proposals for the last elections was a single contract type, to replace the current dual system of temporary and indefinite contracts.

In terms of social stuff they are centrist I think. They support legalizing surrogate motherhood. Originally they had 2 quite conservative proposals: keeping the law that makes illegal inmigrants only able to get emergancy healthcare and ammending the 2004 gender violence law which according to them unfairly criminalizes men. They've gone back on the 2nd and I think also on the first but I'm not sure on that one.

In general they are seen as more liberal than PP though and have none of the ties to the Catholic Church that PP has (at least nominally)

As for other stuff they are quite tough on corruption and want a stronger central government. They want to abolish the Senate and the provincial governments.

And of course they are quite hardline on the Catalan issue, opposing any deals with the nationalists. They also oppose the special Basque financing system. This is expected since they originally were born as an explicitly anti Catalan nationalist party.

In general they are your standard European centrist liberal party. I've often seen Rivera compared to Macron.

[MaxQue]

The previous post, like many others, ignores the fact they are a Castillan nationalist party.

[TheSaint250]

Tack, could you discuss a little bit about Cs's platform and placement on the political spectrum, if you don't mind?

I thought everyone already knew about them. But sure, no problem.

I did (in fact, they are one of my favorite parties), but from my end, I sometimes have trouble finding their stances on issues outside of Spanish unionism so easily. In addition, many have described it as being anything from center-left to center-right, so i just wanted to know how someone in Spain would describe them.

Thank you for the response!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The previous post, like many others, ignores the fact they are a Castillan Spanish internationalist party.

[Velasco]

The main achievement of Catalan separatism -its absurdity, its lies and its disconnection from reality- is the awakening of a reactionary version of Spanish nationalism.

Cs is a Spanish nationalist party seeking forma a recentralization  of the Spanish state in open competition with the corrupt and decadent PP.

[Velasco]

The previous post, like many others, ignores the fact they are a Castillan nationalist party.

Cs was born in Catalonia as Ciutadans. It was a non-entity outside Catalonia until 2015. By no means Cs is a 'Castilian' party. It's a Spanish party with Catalan origins.

[Former President tack50]

2 more new polls

Celeste-Tel for Eldiario.es

PP: 118-123 (28.9%)
PSOE: 92-95 (25.5%)
Cs: 61-63 (19.3%)
UP: 47-52 (16.5%)
PACMA: 0 (1.2%)
Others: 1.6%

ERC: 10-11 (2.7%)
PDECat: 6 (1.6%)
PNV: 5-6 (1.3%)
Bildu: 2-3 (0.9%)
CC: 1 (0.3%)

Also includes vote by age and vote transfers

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Encuesta-electoral-Celeste-Tel-noviembre_0_739826392.html

Invymark for La Sexta

PP: 25.9%
Cs: 23.8%
PSOE: 22.8%
UP: 16.5%

Approval ratings

Albert Rivera: 4.52
Pedro Sánchez: 4.32
Mariano Rajoy: 3.23
Pablo Iglesias: 2.64

Seat distribution (assuming an even swing)



http://www.lasexta.com/noticias/nacional/ciudadanos-se-consolida-como-la-segunda-fuerza-politica-en-intencion-de-voto-a-solo-dos-puntos-del-pp_201802185a89804c0cf2af57a90682bd.html

[Former President tack50]

For some reason we just got 3 polls for the next Andalusian regional election during last week. Tomorrow is Andalucía's national day so I guess that's the reason why.

In theory the election isn't due until March 2019 (shortly before the EU, regional and local elections in May). However many expect Susana Diaz to call a snap election though she denies this.

Anyways, here are the 3 polls:

EGOPA (basically the "Andalusian CIS". Done by the University of Granada)



Approval ratings

Susana Diaz (PSOE): 4.38/10 (known by 91%)
Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla (PP): 4.14/10 (known by 58%)
Teresa Rodriguez (Podemos): 4.18/10 (known by 59%)
Juan Marín (Cs): 4.76/10 (known by 42%)
Antonio Maíllo (IU): 4.49/10 (known by 56%)

http://cadpea.ugr.es/v4/documentos/file/EGOPA%20INVIERNO%202018/Informe%20EGOPA%20INV%C2%B42018%20copia.pdf

NC Report (seats only) 109 seats, 55 for a majority

PP: 33 (-)
Cs: 14 (+5)
PSOE: 43 (-4)
Podemos: 14 (-1)
IU: 5 (-)

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/sevilla/20180226/441100728558/psoe-a-ganaria-con-8-puntos-sobre-el-pp-a-que-repetiria-escanos-y-cs-lograria-cinco-mas-segun-un-sondeo-de-el-mundo.html

SW Información

PP: 22.5% (25 seats)
Cs: 19.5% (23 seats)
PSOE: 35.4% (45 seats)
UP: 16.5% (16 seats)

http://electomania.es/andalucia-el-psoe-ganaria-de-nuevo-ciudadanos-cerca-del-sorpasso-al-pp/

For reference, the 2015 results were:

PSOE: 35.3% (47 seats)
PP: 26.7% (33 seats)
Podemos: 14.8% (15 seats)
Cs: 9.2% (9 seats)
IU: 6.9% (5 seats)

UPyD: 1.9% (0 seats)
Andalusian Party: 1.7% (0 seats)

Not sure if UPyD will contest the election, though it will be basically in zombie form if it does. The Andalusian Party dissolved shortly after the election. Maybe there will be some successor but I don't think it will even get 1%.

[MAINEiac4434]

Is a Unidos/PSOE coalition likely? Or will Diaz look to the C's first?

[Former President tack50]

Is a Unidos/PSOE coalition likely? Or will Diaz look to the C's first?

Not really. Podemos hates PSOE-A with a passion. Diaz will only go with them as a last resort probably.

In fact, if PP-Cs is short of a majority it wouldn't be completely impossible for Podemos to abstain and allow them to form a minority government, particularly if Cs is ahead.

This has already happened with IU in the past, see Asturias 1995 and Extremadura 2011. Though IU did go with PSOE in 2012 so who knows? Probably likelier to see PSOE-Podemos in that scenario.

Then again Cs' rise basically makes that scenario impossible. It would require PSOE not coming in first, PSOE-Cs not being enough and Podemos abstaining.

[Former President tack50]

Ok, here are the last few national polls:

NC Report for La Razón



Invymark for La Sexta



I think things have stabilized a bit? Cs and PSOE seem tied while PP is narrowly ahead. An interesting sideffect of this results could be Cs beating PSOE on the popular vote but getting less seats. It's something that has never happened in Spain but that is theoretically possible (if unlikely)

[Former President tack50]

And PP comes in third in a poll!  Not sure if it's the first or not



However the most interesting thing is PACMA. They come at 2%, compared to 1.2% in 2016.

That means that PACMA might get a seat or even 2! They need 3% in Madrid or Barcelona to get seats. In 2016 they got 1.2% in the former and 1.8% in the latter. So at 2% they probably get the Barcelona seat

[TheSaint250]

Politico.eu has an interesting article on the conflicts between PP and Cs: All-out war on the Spanish right

The article mentions local officials switching parties:

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It also discusses a little bit about conversations around a snap election:

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How do you see things playing out, Tack? Is a snap election somewhat of a possibility?

[Former President tack50]

It's possible, but I would not count on it. In fact every effort by Rajoy seems to be going in the opposite direction, trying to hold until the 2019 regional/local/EU elections and see if PP gets a decent result there or not.

The opposition is claiming that we currently have a "do nothing Congress". Rajoy has promised that he will finally bring a budget to parliament on the 23rd of March. He still doesn't have any support though.

I guess the Canarian parties (particularly CC) won't offer much resistance. But Cs might try and vote against it to capitalize on its good polling numbers though that's a risky strategy. I think Cs will pass it though.

However PNV has said that they won't support any budget until article 155 is lifted on Catalonia which is a whole other story of its own.

On the Catalan side after the whole Puigdemont fiasco he has finally accepted that he won't become regional president. Now the nominee is Jordi Sánchez, number 2 in PDECat's list, former head of a  pro-independence association and most importantly, currently on jail.

However he might not even get the votes to begin with. ERC is definitely not happy about that. They claim that if there is going to be a president from jail and that the number 2 choice for a seccessionist, should be Oriol Junqueras (Puigdemont's VP). However PDECat claims that the president should come from the largest party (ie PDECat)

And CUP has already announced that they won't support Sánchez. In theory this shouldn't be an issue since ERC+JxCat have 66 seats compared to unionists+Podemos' 65, so just an abstention (or being absent) would be enough. Howeveer Puigdemont and one of his former regional ministers are in Brussels and they can't vote so the total score would be 64-65 in favour of unionists so Sánchez would be rejected.

In other words the Catalan issue won't be solved any time soon. Though at least a failed Sánchez vote would make the clock tick towards a second regional election. The Puigdemont failed investiture (where there was a mini "constitutional crisis" with conflicting laws) ended with everyone basically agreeing that the clock hasn't started to count down yet.

And as for a no confidence vote the opposition is too divided so it doesn't seem like they will all join in a no confidence vote. Which means Rajoy could easily stay until 2020 and just rule by decree (though any decrees can be rejected by Congress, in fact the first rejection of a government decree in Spanish history already happened in this term).

[jaichind]

Large lead for C in  Metroscopia  poll

[Former President tack50]

On a sidenote, Jordi Sánchez has not been allowed to temporarily leave jail to attend his investiture vote in Catalonia. The Catalan parliament president has suspended the vote again.

In other words, Catalonia won't be getting a government any time soon.