UK Election 2010

[Јas]

I'd much rather we had a referendum on the EU constitution this year or early next than a GE.

Although Sarkozy's (and now the EUs) mini-treaty will be ratified by parliaments

Some parliaments, but not all. It's very unlikely that there won't be a referendum on it here in Ireland.

[Јas]

In Northern Ireland- Will SDLP and UUP win re-election in their only seats?

UUP (1)
North Down: UUP should hold, but by no means certain. They will need tactical voting from people who prefer Alliance; Greens; Tories and SDLP to guarantee the seat.

SDLP (3)
Foyle: It seems like the SF vote here has stabilised here in the low 30's and the SDLP even on a bad day should pass that. Putting forward the prospect of a SF MP though should be enough to gain some UUP votes to keep this the SDLP's safest seat.

South Down:
If McGrady runs again, I'd imagine they should hold the seat. SF though are an increasingly difficult challenge. If the DUP and UUP made a deal such that only one unionist would stand, they'd be in genuine contention too. Unlikely though and again I;d imagine the prospect of a SF MP could help gain enough votes from the Unionist side to keep the seat in SDLP hands.

South Belfast:
Most tenuous of all of the three. Too early to tell what way this could go (it may still be too early when the votes are being cast). SDLP slight, very slight favourites from the DUP, but plenty of variables at play.

However, despite my generraly positive (if hesitant) analysis for them in these constituencies, it's very difficult to see where either party can be really competitive if trying to win other seats.

[Јas]

May I ask a question about NI? Why do the Conservatives run candidates in a few NI constituencies?

And to make life even more complicated:

Election 1950: 10 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1951: 9 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1955: 10 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1959: 12 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1964: 12 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1966: 11 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1970: 8 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election Feb 1974: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election Oct 1974: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1979: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1983: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1987: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1992: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip (but on Election Night 1992, John Taylor MP (UUP, Stangford) said that the Ulster Unionists would not vote against a minority Conservative administration and in 1995 they actually supported the Conservatives in a formal role
Election 1997: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 2001: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 2005: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip

Pre-1974, the Unionists were (from at least any Westminster electoral perspective) the Conservative Party in Northern Ireland.
1974: Sunningdale Agreement. UUP stop taking the Tory whip in protest.
1985: Anglo-Irish Agreement. UUP consider Thatcher to have committed treason and links break down. Since the UUP abandoned the Conservatives, they now run their own operations there.

AFAIK the LibDems endorse the Alliance party's candidates and the SDLP has close ties with the Labour party (as well as pretty much all of the major Irish parties, I should point out).

[Јas]

Likely Outcome: Lab + Lib Dem Coalition

Oh God, not that. The Lib Dems would likely push for PR

Do the LibDems have a stated preference for which particular form of PR they'd like to see implemented?

[Јas]

Likely Outcome: Lab + Lib Dem Coalition

Oh God, not that. The Lib Dems would likely push for PR

Do the LibDems have a stated preference for which particular form of PR they'd like to see implemented?

According to Wikipedia they want single transferable vote
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democrats#Proportional_representation

Good on them

[Јas]

Likely Outcome: Lab + Lib Dem Coalition

Oh God, not that. The Lib Dems would likely push for PR

Do the LibDems have a stated preference for which particular form of PR they'd like to see implemented?

According to Wikipedia they want single transferable vote
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democrats#Proportional_representation

Good on them

The LibDems support STV because they think that it will benefit them electorally more than any other system and not for principled reasons (o/c similar calculations lie behind the positions that other parties take on electoral systems; Labour stopped supported PR (this was back in the '20's) as soon as the party realised that it had enough support to win a majority under fptp... while the old Liberal Party only discovered electoral reform (in a serious way anyway) after its support started to freefall).

Unfortunately, this much can almost be taken for granted. Hence the difficulties of reforming bedded down electoral systems generally.

[Јas]

I personnaly think that the German system would work well in a UK context.

It's been a failure in Wales; regrettably (yes, the Welsh version is less proportional than the German system, but that's not what caused the problems. It's somehow managed to combine the very worst aspects (at least as far as I'm concerned) of fptp and list systems and produced some attitudes towards politics and democracy amongst politicians that are extremely unhealthy. No one understands how it works either; and no one has ever bothered to really explain it properly...)

Well, an explanation is always good I saw it as a transitional system until your could get proper PR. STV I really don't like because you can vote against a party, like SF in Ireland.

But that's the most fun part of it!

[Јas]

Got a question.

Um... there's a chance I might be involved in one of the parties from mid-year, living there etc etc. Are there any ideas as to when people think Brown will call the election?

IIRC, Brown definitively ruled out 2007 and 2008 last month.
He's obliged (*I think*) to call an election by June 2010.

So sometime in 2009 or early 2010.

In recent times, British General Elections tend to be held in the April-June period.
Might also be worth noting that in June 2009, European Parliamentary Elections are scheduled across Europe anyway (though I've no idea whether that would have a bearing on the decision).
I presume Local Elections of some kind will be held during the period as well, though I've no idea when.

[Јas]

Brown ponders voting referendum on poll day - The Independent

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I presume the odds are on option 4 winning out (), and I'd be surprised if any such referendum would had a snowball's chance of actually being approved but it's nice to see that the subject of electoral reform isn't entirely beyond the Pale.

[Јas]

Does anyone have a link to a list of which seats are counting on the next day?

Probably all of them, except Houghton and Sunderland South and a handful of others.

[Јas]

I'm guessing this is a really dumb question, but it just popped into my mind so forgive me if its been asked or dealt with...

When everyone's calculated the number of seats required to form a majority government (or for Labour to retain such), are we including the Sinn Fein seats in the denominator?  Ie 650 includes the 5 or so seats they win but refuse to take the oath for etc...

No, you're quite right - the calculations don't normally take SF abstentionists into account.

[Јas]

Now it seems less than 30 constituencies will start counting Friday morning. Sunderland Central now counting Thursday so may be first to declare.

Is Northern Ireland declaring on Friday afternoon/evening again?

No - moving to overnight counts.

[Јas]

I'd much rather see a Tory majority, even of 100 seats or some landslide like that, than a Labour Party in third place.

What do you mean 3rd place? The charming electoral system surely means that numbers such as these still leave the LibDems dwarfed by both Tories and Labour.

[Јas]

Good lord, that Elvis rally is embarrassing.

Indeed, a rather blatant attempt to woo Church of the Militant Elvis Party voters.
Won't work - Kettering will still be a CMEP gain.

[Јas]

Oh dear...

[Јas]

The Economist is reportedly backing the Tories

Indeed so.

[Јas]

A poll of public reaction to yesterday's bizarre events: http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Sun-gaffe-28.04.pdf

Such things are usually pretty worthless, but whateversky.

Interesting in the subsets- 7% of Labour supporters are more likely to vote Labour.

Seems to be confirming my thought- those who will leave Labour have already gone.

And 7% of intending LibDem voters are going to vote Labour anyway

[Јas]

I quite liked this video blog entry from Tom Harris (Glasgow South) this morning.