UK Election 2010

[Democratic Hawk]

And here we are? The economy is making a tepid recovery from the worst global financial crisis and economic downturn since the 'Crash of 1929' and the 'Great Depression' and the most important thing is securing that recovery . It's for the voters to decide on who can do that best

And during the most important election for years - the main news tonight is Gordon Brown thought some elderly lady had bigoted views.

The state of British politics - and "journalism" - really is appalling, .... the pits

[You kip if you want to...]

And here we are? The economy is making a tepid recovery from the worst global financial crisis and economic downturn since the 'Crash of 1929' and the 'Great Depression' and the most important thing is securing that recovery . It's for the voters to decide on who can do that best

And during the most important election for years - the main news tonight is Gordon Brown thought some elderly lady had bigoted views.

The state of British politics - and "journalism" - really is appalling, .... the pits

I wholeheartedly concur.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't disagree, but no one should be surprised. The media has been like this for some time; though the bizarre self-obsession seen in some of the reporting (ie; reporting on what the twitter response to a blog post response to a report was) is new.

[afleitch]

SNP feeling 'confident' with their chances in Edinburgh East.

[Хahar 🤔]

I don't disagree, but no one should be surprised. The media has been like this for some time; though the bizarre self-obsession seen in some of the reporting (ie; reporting on what the twitter response to a blog post response to a report was) is new.

The media is challenged by the Internet; it must reassure itself that it is always best.

[Silent Hunter]

Isn't playing the tape of Brown's remarks to Gillian Duffy to get her views a bit questionable ethics-wise?

[Franzl]

Isn't playing the tape of Brown's remarks to Gillian Duffy to get her views a bit questionable ethics-wise?

She shouldn't know what Brown said about her after having been oh so polite just seconds earlier?

[Phony Moderate]

I'm not defending Brown (or any other politician for that matter), but there seems to be a sizeable portion of the UK public who thinks that they should be able to say whatever they want, but the politcians can only say things that do not conflict with their (the sizeable section of the British public's) views.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I would appreciate more information on a point raised by an associate of mine who suggests that even if Labour were to run third in the popular vote, due to the organization of the constituencies, they could get more members in Parliament than the other parties.

What is your assessment of this possibility?

Oh, and for the record, I suggest the following range in popular votes:

Conservatives            33 to 35 %
Labour                            27
Liberal Democrats      23 to 29
Others                         9 to 17

[Silent Hunter]

Labour was always going to lose this election badly. The gaffe means we're unlikely to clear 30%. Question is, do we do worse than 1983 in popular vote share? I doubt it.

[Verily]

Labour MP Kerry McCarthy (Bristol East) is in trouble for releasing postal voting results prior to election day.

[Silent Hunter]

Labour MP Kerry McCarthy (Bristol East) is in trouble for releasing postal voting results prior to election day.

Which is against the law.

[afleitch]

Labour MP Kerry McCarthy (Bristol East) is in trouble for releasing postal voting results prior to election day.

Which is against the law.

A reminder to all not to post the 'tweet' here.

[afleitch]

The Economist is reportedly backing the Tories

[Democratic Hawk]

The Economist is reportedly backing the Tories

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE63S20920100429
Economist magazine backs Britain's Conservatives
Thu Apr 29, 2010 10:40am EDT

LONDON, April 29 (Reuters) - The influential Economist magazine endorsed Britain's main opposition Conservatives on Thursday, giving them a boost ahead of next week's parliamentary election.

The magazine switched its support from centre-left Labour for the May 6 election because it said the Conservatives seemed the most committed to reducing the size of the public sector.

"Government now accounts for over half the economy, rising to 70 percent in Northern Ireland. For Britain to thrive, this liberty-destroying Leviathan has to be tackled," the weekly magazine wrote in an editorial.

"The Conservatives, for all their shortcomings, are keenest to do that; and that is the main reason why we would cast our vote for them."

The Economist praised Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown's response to the global credit crisis, but tempered this by criticising him for pouring money into public services during his decade as finance minister until 2007.

It concluded that Labour, in power since 1997 when Tony Blair won the first of three successive victories, had run out of steam.

"Above all, the government is tired. Mired in infighting and scandal, just as the Tories were in 1997, New Labour has run its course," it said.

The Economist has a circulation of close to 200,000 in Britain and 1.4 million worldwide. It is widely read by people in financial services and the higher echelons of business.

Opinion polls show the centre-right Conservatives or Tories leading the election race, but suggest they may not have enough support to command an outright majority in the 650-seat parliament.

A strong showing by the centrist Liberal Democrats, long the third party in British politics, has seen them overtake Labour in some polls and complicated the electoral arithmetic. Britain has a first-past-the-post electoral system, not one based on proportional representation.

Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg has shone in televised debates, but the Economist said the party's policies were less appealing.

"To the extent that elections are holidays from normal politics, Mr Clegg has been a delightful holiday romance for many Britons; but this newspaper does not fancy moving in with him for the next five years," it said.

The Economist is part-owned by the Financial Times, itself part of the Pearson media group. (Editing by Matthew Jones)

Centre-right my arse! Even more in thrall to the “cult of neoliberalism” wherein lies all the causation for the 'Crash of 2008' and the 'Great Recession' than Labour

[Јas]

The Economist is reportedly backing the Tories

Indeed so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A poll of public reaction to yesterday's bizarre events: http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Sun-gaffe-28.04.pdf

Such things are usually pretty worthless, but whateversky.

[Lief 🗽]

Nate Silver (pbuh) does some pretty math:



http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/uk-seats-projection-tories-299-labour.html

[Silent Hunter]

A poll of public reaction to yesterday's bizarre events: http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Sun-gaffe-28.04.pdf

Such things are usually pretty worthless, but whateversky.

Interesting in the subsets- 7% of Labour supporters are more likely to vote Labour.

Seems to be confirming my thought- those who will leave Labour have already gone.

[Јas]

A poll of public reaction to yesterday's bizarre events: http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Sun-gaffe-28.04.pdf

Such things are usually pretty worthless, but whateversky.

Interesting in the subsets- 7% of Labour supporters are more likely to vote Labour.

Seems to be confirming my thought- those who will leave Labour have already gone.

And 7% of intending LibDem voters are going to vote Labour anyway

[Torie]

Since I could not find it on this thread (sorry if it is somewhere), here is a link to an audio clip of Brown's bigot remark about Duffy:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/audio/2010/apr/28/gordon-brown-gillian-duffy-rochdale-microphone-left-on

And below is a link to a clip of his apology. Actually Brown was more affable in making the apology with a nice smile and absent that mouth twitch that he has that I find so distracting, than I have ever seen before. Normally he comes off as a grump. Heck he is even worse than Grumpy Gramps!  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLv5LQcdZFY

By the way does anywhere here believe Brown when he said that he called her a bigot simply because he "misheard" her?  Please!

[pragmatic liberal]

It seems pretty clear to me that the result they're heading towards is a Tory minority government, with Cameron perhaps 20-30 short of an overall majority.

Could the result be different? Sure. Cameron could get a slight majority. Or the Lib Dems and Labour could combined have a majority and try to form a coalition or pact. But I think a Tory minority government is most likely at this point.

The reason is that the Tories look to have solidified in the mid-30s, with a score in the upper 30s quite possible. Remember they got 31% of the vote with John Major in 1997, about the same in 2001, and then 33% in 2005. They're almost certainly going increase by a couple of points.

I suspect the core Labour vote is about 25%, which means they'll probably poll about 27-28%, with the Lib Dems a point or two ahead.

That probably translates into something like roughly 200 seats for Labour, and about 90-100 for the Lib Dems. That's not going to be enough to form a majority government between them.

Clegg might discuss forming a coalition with Cameron, but it's unlikely that Cameron will be so weak as to be able to concede proportional representation. Clegg will simply pledge to vote for the government in confidence votes and attempt to carry the fight for another day.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

It seems pretty clear to me that the result they're heading towards is a Tory minority government, with Cameron perhaps 20-30 short of an overall majority.

Could the result be different? Sure. Cameron could get a slight majority. Or the Lib Dems and Labour could combined have a majority and try to form a coalition or pact. But I think a Tory minority government is most likely at this point.

The reason is that the Tories look to have solidified in the mid-30s, with a score in the upper 30s quite possible. Remember they got 31% of the vote with John Major in 1997, about the same in 2001, and then 33% in 2005. They're almost certainly going increase by a couple of points.

I suspect the core Labour vote is about 25%, which means they'll probably poll about 27-28%, with the Lib Dems a point or two ahead.

That probably translates into something like roughly 200 seats for Labour, and about 90-100 for the Lib Dems. That's not going to be enough to form a majority government between them.

Clegg might discuss forming a coalition with Cameron, but it's unlikely that Cameron will be so weak as to be able to concede proportional representation. Clegg will simply pledge to vote for the government in confidence votes and attempt to carry the fight for another day.

Sadly, it looks to be going that way.  Unless one of the most drastic and fast political swings happen in the next week, we have a hung Parliament with a Tory minority government.

I doubt that Clegg would form a coalition with Cameron, and personally I think the balance of the two would bring about some more third way compromises.

[Democratic Hawk]

Clegg might discuss forming a coalition with Cameron, but it's unlikely that Cameron will be so weak as to be able to concede proportional representation. Clegg will simply pledge to vote for the government in confidence votes and attempt to carry the fight for another day.

In the event of their Emergency Budget, how about voting that minority Conservative government down?

Seriously, I think there is compelling case for National Government like we had in the wake of the 'Great Depression' (1931-35). Just what the hell do we do with the ideologues, that's the question?

I came to accept the "cult of neoliberalism" but the 'Crash of 2008' has seen me truly sour on it

[Хahar 🤔]

Dave, do you really want another National Government?