Spanish elections and politics

[TheSaint250]

Cs is nothing close to an “ethnic nationalist” party. Was the Republican Party ethnic nationalist during the Civil War for opposing the South seceding? Of course not. Both areas had different ways of life, but in the end, they were, as Catalonia and all other regions are, united by a common nation.

[Velasco]

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!

ROFLMAO

Cs is nothing close to an “ethnic nationalist” party.

On election night, Cs supporters meeting at the Hotel Catalonia couldn't contain their enthusiasm and shouted (intoxicated by victory): "¡Yo soy Español, Español, Español!"

Neither Spanish nationalism nor Catalan separatism can be termed as "ethnic", in my opinion.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!

Susana Diaz? The southern barons of the PSOE really aren't the Centrists you crave...

[Zinneke]

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!

En Marche can only exist in a (semi-)Presidentialist system where one candidate has the initials EM.

[Mike88]

The trend continues...

GAD3/ABC poll: (projected seats in parentheses)

26.2% C's (86/90)
24.7% PP (97/101)
24.2% PSOE (93/97)
14.7% UP (42/44)
  2.9% ERC (10/11)
  1.9% PDC (6)
  1.3% PNV (7)
  0.7% Bildu (2)
  0.3% CC (0/1)
  3.1% Others

71.0% Turnout

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 January 2018.

[Oryxslayer]

The trend continues...

GAD3/ABC poll: (projected seats in parentheses)

26.2% C's (86/90)
24.7% PP (97/101)
24.2% PSOE (93/97)
14.7% UP (42/44)
  2.9% ERC (10/11)
  1.9% PDC (6)
  1.3% PNV (7)
  0.7% Bildu (2)
  0.3% CC (0/1)
  3.1% Others

71.0% Turnout

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 January 2018.

Well, thats a working majority for any coalition between the big two - now three I guess.

Now I really want to see this chaotic government fall, and get new elections...

[Former President tack50]

Interesting that Cs might win the popular vote but come in third in terms of seats!

Seems like UCD's "gerrymander" is still working. Interestingly Cs might be the closest to the old UCD, so it has backfired 40 years later!

[Zinneke]

Interesting that Cs might win the popular vote but come in third in terms of seats!

Seems like UCD's "gerrymander" is still working. Interestingly Cs might be the closest to the old UCD, so it has backfired 40 years later!

Didn't C's say just after the result that they would only govern if electoral reform is on the table? I imagine this is what they will want implemented in the new constitutional reforms regardless, but if they end up with that result in that electoral system they will only have themselves to blame. Just as the LibDems have themselves to blame for the AV vote going to a referendum in UK.

[Former President tack50]

Electoral reform is one of those things that everyone claims to be in favour but never happens in the end. Though Cs should press PP and tell them they'll vote against the budget if no reforms are passed.

The thing is that except for limited reforms (like say, bringing the number of MPs up to 400 and/or reducing the minimum amount of seats per province from 2 to 1), you need to reform the constitution as that specifies several key things:

The electoral constituencies must be the provinces of Spain
The results in each constituency shall be allocated in a proportional manner
The seat allocation shall be done in a proportional manner, but there must be a minimum of seats per province which shall be specified in law

And PSOE's constitutional reform commision isn't going exactly well. A few days ago the few remaining "founding fathers" that were still alive (2 from UCD, 1 from the "Catalan minority", ie CiU) weren't exactly in favour

Interestingly it's not the only electoral reform that isn't going well. All groups in opposition in the Canary Islands (PP, PSOE, Podemos, NC) agreed to do a limited electoral reform. Parliament increases from 60 to 70, 1 extra seat would go to Fuerteventura and the other 9 would go to an at-large constituency and allocated to make results more proportional. Also thresholds are lowered from 6% in the archipielago/30% on a single island to half of that (3%/15%)

However if CC doesn't approve I don't think it¡s possible. Apparently electoral reform needs either a 2/3 majority (CC+ASG, the big winners have that) or a reform of the estatuto (currently being debated in the Congress of Deputies, but electoral reform is precisely the largest obstacle. In fact it already stopped it in 2007!)

Electoral reforms are also being debated in Castille-La Mancha (with the highest threshold, a de facto 8% threshold!) and Andalucia (where Cs is in coalition with PSOE, but PSOE doesn't want reforms), but neither has been passed yet.

I think only Murcia has done electoral reform because of Cs.

[Former President tack50]

And PP falls to the third place! Also Podemos apparently recovers.

Simple Lógica poll





Approval ratings:



Interestingly, Iglesias is under water even among Podemos voters (-6) and Sánchez is only barely above among PSOE voters (+5).

http://www.simplelogica.com/iop/iop18002_intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

In other news, the first meeting of the Catalan parliament has happened and they elected a secessionist speaker by 65-56 (9 blank, 8 from Podemos and an unknown one, most likely from PSC). The regional MPs that were in jail were allowed to tell someone from their party who they wanted to vote for and have them vote in their name. The ones in Brussels didn't though.

And it's unclear if Puigdemont will be allowed to be elected remotely. The Spanish government has already said that they'll keep article 155 if he is reelected remotely as that goes against the Catalan parliament's rules, and will send it to court. ERC and CUP aren't exactly happy about having to put Puigdemont either.

A possibility that has been floated is for Puigdemont to not be reelected, like Mas in 2015; and instead just run for the EU parliament next year. That way he won't need to leave Brussels.

[Zinneke]

A possibility that has been floated is for Puigdemont to not be reelected, like Mas in 2015; and instead just run for the EU parliament next year. That way he won't need to leave Brussels.

He's gotten the glorious taste of campaigning for the N-VA in Leuven for example, over "how to kick out the socialists" from the town hall.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2018/01/05/puigdemont-komt-spreken-bij-n-va-leuven--over-hoe-socialistische/

I imagine he misses the weather though.

[Velasco]

A possibility that has been floated is for Puigdemont to not be reelected, like Mas in 2015; and instead just run for the EU parliament next year. That way he won't need to leave Brussels.

He's gotten the glorious taste of campaigning for the N-VA in Leuven for example, over "how to kick out the socialists" from the town hall.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2018/01/05/puigdemont-komt-spreken-bij-n-va-leuven--over-hoe-socialistische/

I imagine he misses the weather though.

How lovely.

Certainly the main victims of the 'process' have been the catalan socialists and the Spanish left in general. Artur Mas wanted to prevent another leftist government in Catalonia and in that regard he succeed.

[Former President tack50]

Not sure if I should post it here but since there isn't any EP election thread just yet since it's too far away, whatever.

http://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2018/01/23/5a670fd422601da16d8b45e3.html

Spain will apparently get 5 more seats in the EU parliament in 2019, going up from 54 to 59. This is the largest amount of Spanish seats since 1999 (64 seats).

Since Spain uses a purely proportional system, 1 at-large constituency and no threshold, this will benefit small parties like VOX or PACMA. I wouldn't be surprised if they both get in. In fact, VOX would already have an MEP if Spain had had 59 seats in 2014

The 2014 results would have been:

PP: 18 (+2)
PSOE 16 (+2)
IU: 6
UPyD 4
Podemos 5
CEU (CC+PNV+CiU): 3
ERC 2
Cs 2
LPD (Bildu+BNG) 1
PE (Equo+Compromís) 1
VOX 1 (+1)

The 5 extra seats go to PP, PSOE and VOX.

[TheSaint250]

I would've thought that UPyD would've crumbled as Cs grew, but they're doing pretty well.

[Former President tack50]

I would've thought that UPyD would've crumbled as Cs grew, but they're doing pretty well.

It's not a poll or anything like that though. It's just the 2014 result but with 59 seats instead of 54. Obviously nowadays UPyD would be extremely lucky to even hold 1 seat (one of their MEPs, Maite Pagazartundua, is somewhat famous for MEP standards though I doubt she'll hold her seat) and Cs would grow a lot.

I guess UPyD's closest comparison here might be CDS (another centrist party, the spiritual successor to UCD) in the 1994 EP elections, when the party had almost completely disappeared and everyone relevant had left but their candidate (Eduard Punset, later famous for his documentaries) was still somewhat famous. They got 1%, not enough to get a seat but still a very good showing.

I did not expect PP and PSOE to both grow by 2 though, I thought the new seats would be allocated in a more egalitarian fashion.

[TheSaint250]

Ah ok. Thanks!

[Former President tack50]

And Cs slowly but surely keeps rising. Podemos is also very slowly recovering while PP is on free fall

Invymark-La Sexta poll

PP: 26,1%
Cs: 23,4%
PSOE: 23,0%
UP: 16.2%
Others: 11.3%

Approval ratings (out of 10)

Mariano Rajoy: 3.68
Pedro Sánchez: 4,28
Albert Rivera: 4.45
Pablo Iglesias: 2.78

http://www.lasexta.com/noticias/nacional/baro-voto_201801285a6de0c80cf2717a3c2f8893.html

Also some regional polling. I guess we'll see more of these next year when the regonal elections are actually imminent

IBES for Balearic Islands regional elections (30 for a majority)





MES are left wing nationalists and I think open to hypothetical unification with Catalonia, El PI are right wing nationalists and probably opposed on that but favourable to more decentralization. They are the successor to Unió Mallorquina, which was arguably the most corrupt party in Spanish history relative to their size.

So the left wing majority basically evaporates and it would be too close to call. However unlike in other regions PI might not automatically join with PP and Cs. In fact the Balearic Islands have already seen "everyone against PP" coalitions, like in 1999 and 2007. I still think if the left loses its majority the most likely scenario is PP-Cs-PI but it's not guaranteed.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Seeing as Iglesias is so unpopular, could he be ousted or persuaded to move on? Is Errejon still part of the party?

[Mike88]

Ada Colau, Barcelona's mayor, has lost a confidence vote and challenges the opposition to present an alternative government and Mayor.

What are the chances of the PDeCAT/C's/PP/PSC opposition of supporting an alternative candidate?

[Former President tack50]

Very slim. The current distribution in Barcelona's town hall is (21 councillors for an overall majority):


En Comú 11
CiU 10
Cs 5
ERC 5
PSC 4
PP 3
CUP 3

However I seriously doubt that a CiU-Cs-PP-PSC no confidence vote would work. CiU is radically different to the 3 others on the independence stuff (which was part of the reason why PSC and Podemos broke up in Barcelona) and PSC wouldn't support such a right wing government.

I guess Colau will stay for now but each time she seems like she will have a tougher time being reelected. I wouldn't be surprised if she was defeated. And that's considering that Barcelona is one of the safest towns for Podemos and that their next rival on the left (ERC) has half their seats!

[Former President tack50]

Seeing as Iglesias is so unpopular, could he be ousted or persuaded to move on? Is Errejon still part of the party?

Errejón is still part of the party, but it seems he'll just run for regional president in Madrid and has been out of the spotlight for a while. In fact I think Iglesias has basically taken out anyone who could contest his leadership.

I think all 4 main party leaders (Rajoy, Sánchez, Iglesias, Rivera) will all make it to the next general election.

[Former President tack50]

Well, here's the latest poll. If someone cares it also has other questions (like whether Spain should be more or less centralized or what worries Spaniards the most) and some crosstabs (by age, party and a couple others). It's generally considered the most complete poll:

CIS poll

http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/NoticiasNovedades/InfoCIS/2018/Documentacion_3203.html

PP: 26.3%
PSOE: 23.1%
Cs: 20.7%
UP: 19.0%

ERC: 3.4%
PDECat: 2%
PNV: 1.2%
Bildu: 0.8%
CC: 0.2%
Others: 1.8%

Approval ratings for politicians (out of 10)

Mariano Rajoy: 2.87
Pedro Sánchez: 3.68
Albert Rivera: 4.01
Pablo Iglesias: 2.54
Alberto Garzón: 3.67

Íñigo Alli (UPN): 2.75
Joan Baldoví (Compromís): 3.94
Marian Beitialarrangoitia (Bildu): 3.05
Carles Campuzano (PDECat): 3.17
Yolanda Díaz (En Marea): 3.32
Xavier Domenezh (En Comú Podem): 3.53
Aitor Esteban (PNV): 3.50
Isidro Martinez Oblanca (Foro Asturias): 2.38
Ana Oramas (CC): 3.77
Pedro Quevedo (NCa): 3.23
Joan Tardà (ERC): 2.71

Approval ratings for the cabinet

Fátima Bañez (Employment): 2.9
Rafael Catalá (Justice): 2.81
Maria Dolores de Cospedal (Defense): 2.93
Alfonso Dastis (Foreign affairs): 2.71
Isabel García Tejerina (Agriculture): 3.27
Luis de Guindos (Economy): 2.98
Íñigo Méndez de Vigo (Education, Government speaker): 3.03
Cristobal Montoro (Treasury): 2.33
Dolors Monserrat (Healthcare): 2.87
Álvaro Nadal (Energy and Tourism): 2.62
Soraya Saenz de Santamaría (Deputy Prime Minister): 3.58
Íñigo de la Serna (Public Works): 3.00
Juan Ignacio Zoido (Interior): 2.90

[MAINEiac4434]

I wonder how much Catalonia is hurting UP and Iglesias. The party's support for a Catalan secession referendum, while noble, cannot be popular with the rest of the country.

[Former President tack50]

Podemos and Cs have been working on a new electoral reform deal by themselves. They are trying to limit themselves to reforms that don't require constitutional reforms so that they can pass it without PP, just by convincing PSOE.

Today Podemos presented their proposal, which has 4 basic points:

-Lowering the voting age to 16

-Introducing "zipper lists". As in lists must alternate between men and women. Iirc Podemos and PSOE already do this by themselves, they want to make it mandatory for everyone else

-Replacing the D'Hondt method by Sainte Lague.

-Removing the "begged vote" system for Spaniards abroad.

-A joint "mailing" for ballots. In Spain ballots for the main parties are sent to your home instead of you having to pick them up. This obviously benefits large parties and it will remain this way, this is more of a cost saving measure.

-Mandatory debates

Of these the only one that has a real effect is the 3rd measure. While D'Hondt per se is not what makes the Spanish system not fully proportional (that would be provincial constituencies) it still makes it better. For reference the 2016 results would have been:

PP: 122 (-15)
PSOE: 84 (-1)
Podemos: 77 (+6)
Cs: 44 (+12)
ERC: 9 (nc)
PDECat: 7 (-1)
PNV: 4 (-1)
Bildu: 2 (nc)
CC: 1 (nc)

As for the others, lowering the voting age to 16 will almost certainly fail. Mandatory debates will probably fail as well. The others will probably be successful.

In general this is an underwhelming reform but is better than nothing. Of course we now have to wait for Cs' counteroffer and whether PSOE will even support their efforts as well. I certainly hope so but it's far from guaranteed.

--X--

Also, Catalonia has been having trouble getting a regional president. Puigdemont can't return to Spain and courts have determined that in order to be elected regional president he has to be in parliament. Secessionists wanted to elect him anyways but in the end the parliament speaker Roger Torrent (who had the power to call or not the parliamentary meeting) chickened out at the last minute and cancelled the meeting

So now ERC, JxCat and CUP are negotiating. Puigdemont apparently doesn't want to become irrelevant like Mas before him which is causing trouble.

The most common solution I've seen proposed is the "dual presidency" where there would be a symbolic president and a real one. ERC wants the legislature to behave normally and Puigdemont to be symbolic (think of the Spanish king). Puigdemont wants to be the real president, with a real parliament to elect him (he proposed the "mayors meeting", ie a meeting of all secessionists mayors) and the institutions in Barcelona being just puppets.

Unionist parties aren't happy and I guess they would sue but IMO a dual presidency would be legal. It wouldn't be that different from Kazcynski in Poland or Dragnea in Romania.

[Former President tack50]

Well, I guess El País is starting to do its polls on their offices. Either that or they are outright making them up.

Metroscopia-El País poll

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/02/08/actualidad/1518116526_354844.html



With a handy seat extrapolator I found on the internet, the results would be:

Cs: 108
PP: 83
PSOE: 80
UP 53

ERC: 10
PDECat: 7
PNV: 6
Bildu 2
CC: 1

Cs-PP and Cs-PSOE both get a majority. In terms of regional winners:

PP: Galicia, Navarra, Ceuta, Melilla
PSOE: Andalucia, Extremadura
PNV: Basque Country
Unsure: Castille-Leon, Castille-La Mancha. The former probably leans Cs, the latter leans PP.
Cs: Everything else