Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What county is Bowling Green in?

[ElectionsGuy]

We'll wait until all of Lexington and Louisville is in. But yeah, I would rather be Bevin right now than Conway. I'm looking at the counties with 100% in and it looks much closer to what McConnell did to what Beshear did 4 years ago.

What county is Bowling Green in?

Warren.

[Skye]

Sean Trende:

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35.6% reporting
Bevin 50
Conway 46

[ElectionsGuy]

36% in

Bevin - 50%
Conway - 46%

Beshear - 53%
Westerfield - 47%

Edelen - 51%
Harmon - 49%

Grimes - 53%
Knipper - 47%

Ball - 59%
Nelson - 41%

Quarles - 58%
Spann - 42%

[YaBoyNY]

Kentucky Democrats need to keep moving. They cede the state to the GOP, that shows that Democrats will have a hard time with white voters FOREVER.

yes, white voters in kentucky = white voters in the northeast, upper midwest, and pacific coast obviously

astute commentary from bronz4141

[Mr. Illini]

% in:

Jefferson 43%
Fayette 84%
Franklin 77%

That's bad for Conway

[ElectionsGuy]

% in:

Jefferson 43%
Fayette 84%
Franklin 77%

That's bad for Conway

Eh, Jefferson is a pretty huge chunk of the vote, and it looks like the rest will be pretty D-leaning. We'll see.

Besides Floyd, all counties in eastern Kentucky going for Conway are counties that Grimes won in 2014.

[Skye]

McConnell got 42% in Jefferson Co. last year. We should check how it goes this year.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

So Conway is doing better in Campbell County than statewide???

[Mr. Illini]

% in:

Jefferson 43%
Fayette 84%
Franklin 77%

That's bad for Conway

Eh, Jefferson is a pretty huge chunk of the vote, and it looks like the rest will be pretty D-leaning. We'll see.

D-leaning yes, but so far showing 10 pt margin for Conway. Certainly don't see him pushing over 60% in the county, and Conway already has 43% of what he's going to get out of it..

[Figueira]

Congrats Governor Bevin

Bevin isn't someone who deserves "congratulations."

[Landslide Lyndon]

And once again the pollsters have egg on their faces.
It's like there is a global polling crisis going on. Only in Canada can they say that predicted somewhat accurately the final results.

[seanNJ9]

So why is Grimes, Beshear, and Edelen out performing Conway?

[seanNJ9]

Congrats Governor Bevin

Bevin isn't someone who deserves "congratulations."

Well I still respect the office.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bevin back to leading by 6.

Agriculture Commissioner - General
1433 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 39%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Quarles, Ryan   GOP   206,186   59%
Lawson Spann, Jean-Marie   Dem   146,261   41%

Attorney General - General
1457 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 39%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Beshear, Andy   Dem   189,265   52%
Westerfield, Whitney   GOP   176,549   48%

Auditor - General
1441 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 39%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Edelen, Adam (i)   Dem   180,013   51%
Harmon, Mike   GOP   174,703   49%

Governor - General
1463 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 40%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Bevin, Matt   GOP   188,551   51%
Conway, Jack   Dem   169,668   45%
Curtis, Drew   Ind   14,939   4%

Secretary of State - General
1457 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 39%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Grimes, Alison Lundergan (i)   Dem   195,206   53%
Knipper, Stephen   GOP   173,329   47%

Supreme Court - District 7 - General
321 of 514 Precincts Reporting - 62%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Wright, Sam   NP   25,164   54%
Stumbo, Janet   NP   21,035   46%

Treasurer - General
1441 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 39%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Ball, Allison   GOP   211,899   60%
Nelson, Rick   Dem   143,887   40%

[ElectionsGuy]

Jefferson now 60% in. Down to a 4 point margin. Good news for D's though - Grimes, Beshear, and Edelen all leading.

[Holmes]

And once again the pollsters have egg on their faces.
It's like there is a global polling crisis going on. Only in Canada can they say that predicted somewhat accurately the final results.

Canadian pollsters have had many bad showings in recent years.

[Badger]

So why is Grimes, Beshear, and Edelen out performing Conway?

Seriously. I realize Governor is a higher profile office subject to more partisanship, but they all seem cut from the same mold.

[Mr. Illini]

Conway now down to 40% left to milk from Jefferson. Don't want to end this looking dumb, but it isn't looking good for Conway IMO.

[The_Doctor]

Congratulations Governor-elect Matt Bevin. Wow. I didn't think he'd win.

[ElectionsGuy]

Congratulations Governor-elect Matt Bevin. Wow. I didn't think he'd win.

Let's be cautious. This is still close.

[IceSpear]

So why is Grimes, Beshear, and Edelen out performing Conway?

They were running against nobodies and outspent them drastically.

It's looking like Conway is doomed. The only question now is if Grimes (and possibly Beshear/Edelen) can delay the inevitable extinction of the Kentucky Democratic Party.

[seanNJ9]

Congratulations Governor-elect Matt Bevin. Wow. I didn't think he'd win.

Let's be cautious. This is still close.

No its not.

[jaichind]

It seems it will be Bevin at around 52% of the vote by my guess.

[Nyvin]

I don't see how Conway can still win...