Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread

[ElectionsGuy]

Boyd, Greenup, and Carter counties in the northeast are Bevin with a substantial amount reported. That's not good for Conway.

Boyd and Carter margins are narrow

Yes, but they need to be Conway counties.

Kenton back down to a near tie. So yeah, just D areas coming in first.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Even Grimes might not win. :

Agriculture Commissioner - General
555 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 15%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Quarles, Ryan   GOP   86,516   59%
Lawson Spann, Jean-Marie   Dem   59,266   41%

Attorney General - General
597 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 16%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Beshear, Andy   Dem   81,628   51%
Westerfield, Whitney   GOP   78,118   49%

Auditor - General
597 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 16%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Harmon, Mike   GOP   79,895   51%
Edelen, Adam (i)   Dem   76,667   49%

Governor - General
597 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 16%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Bevin, Matt   GOP   83,316   51%
Conway, Jack   Dem   73,185   45%
Curtis, Drew   Ind   6,251   4%

Secretary of State - General
597 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 16%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Grimes, Alison Lundergan (i)   Dem   82,923   52%
Knipper, Stephen   GOP   78,046   48%

Supreme Court - District 7 - General
110 of 514 Precincts Reporting - 21%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Wright, Sam   NP   9,356   57%
Stumbo, Janet   NP   7,111   43%

Treasurer - General
578 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 16%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Ball, Allison   GOP   91,226   60%
Nelson, Rick   Dem   61,730   40%

[Talleyrand]

So Bevin, grimes, beshear, edelen winning? Apparently Iwas right hHehe

Not really. Those three Dems are barely ahead with nearly all the votes being from Lexington and Louisville... Not to mention all of Western Kentucky is yet to come

I will now accept my accolades.

[cinyc]

Pike County flipped to Bevin.

[Free Bird]

What was it looking like this time in 11?

[Vega]

We're not even over 30%, let's not be hasty.

[ElectionsGuy]

Bevin actually winning Pike now. Looks like many of the uber-R southern counties are reporting.

[Progressive]

So Bevin is actually going to win?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

A big batch of votes just came in from Boone County, so it's out of the way now.

[user12345]

We're not even over 30%, let's not be hasty.

This, we knew this race was gonna be tight so letting early results dictate our predictions is silly.

[seanNJ9]

Dave Wasserman
‏@Redistrict

Based on the full results being reported out of Boone Co. (suburban Cincinnati), I'd rather be Bevin (R) than Conway (D) right now. #KYGov

[Skye]

Nate Cohn:

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[Vega]

So Bevin is actually going to win?

We are so early in the came, talk like that is crazy.

[seanNJ9]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 3m3 minutes ago

Conway underperforming uniform swing targets just about everywhere that >50% of the vote is in.

[seanNJ9]

Nate Cohn:

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thats 2014 grimes

conway is toast

[Progressive]

Can I get an AP thread to results

[ElectionsGuy]

Grimes 52
Knipper 48

Beshear 51
Westerfield 49

Harmon 51
Edelen 49

Ball 60
Nelson 40

Quarles 59
Spann 41

^^^ http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/KY_Agriculture_Commissioner_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Agriculture Commissioner - General
630 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 17%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Quarles, Ryan   GOP   97,501   59%
Lawson Spann, Jean-Marie   Dem   66,509   41%

Attorney General - General
656 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 18%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Beshear, Andy   Dem   89,684   51%
Westerfield, Whitney   GOP   85,960   49%

Auditor - General
649 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 18%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Harmon, Mike   GOP   86,390   51%
Edelen, Adam (i)   Dem   83,137   49%

Governor - General
675 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 18%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Bevin, Matt   GOP   93,559   51%
Conway, Jack   Dem   81,680   45%
Curtis, Drew   Ind   7,144   4%

Secretary of State - General
669 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 18%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Grimes, Alison Lundergan (i)   Dem   92,998   52%
Knipper, Stephen   GOP   86,578   48%

Supreme Court - District 7 - General
163 of 514 Precincts Reporting - 32%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Wright, Sam   NP   13,518   56%
Stumbo, Janet   NP   10,617   44%

Treasurer - General
649 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 18%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Ball, Allison   GOP   102,777   60%
Nelson, Rick   Dem   67,416   40%

[seanNJ9]

Congrats Governor Bevin

[Progressive]

Grimes 52
Knipper 48

Beshear 51
Westerfield 49

Harmon 51
Edelen 49

Ball 60
Nelson 40

Quarles 59
Spann 41

^^^ http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/KY_Agriculture_Commissioner_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Thanks! Is  there a link for all the races for tn for other states too?

[ElectionsGuy]

Grimes 52
Knipper 48

Beshear 51
Westerfield 49

Harmon 51
Edelen 49

Ball 60
Nelson 40

Quarles 59
Spann 41

^^^ http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/KY_Agriculture_Commissioner_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Thanks! Is  there a link for all the races for tn for other states too?

MS: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/MS_Governor_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
OH: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/OH_Page_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
VA: http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2015%20November%20General/Site/GeneralAssembly.html

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Conway gaining!

Agriculture Commissioner - General
773 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 21%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Quarles, Ryan   GOP   114,886   60%
Lawson Spann, Jean-Marie   Dem   76,443   40%

Attorney General - General
950 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 26%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Beshear, Andy   Dem   126,523   52%
Westerfield, Whitney   GOP   115,895   48%

Auditor - General
942 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 25%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Edelen, Adam (i)   Dem   118,797   50%
Harmon, Mike   GOP   117,577   50%

Governor - General
950 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 26%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Bevin, Matt   GOP   124,031   50%
Conway, Jack   Dem   113,527   46%
Curtis, Drew   Ind   9,380   4%

Secretary of State - General
950 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 26%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Grimes, Alison Lundergan (i)   Dem   128,878   53%
Knipper, Stephen   GOP   115,352   47%

Supreme Court - District 7 - General
218 of 514 Precincts Reporting - 42%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Wright, Sam   NP   17,010   56%
Stumbo, Janet   NP   13,565   44%

Treasurer - General
932 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 25%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Ball, Allison   GOP   139,314   59%
Nelson, Rick   Dem   96,307   41%

[Mr. Illini]

Conway widening margin in Jefferson but cancelled out by rural WKY coming in. Probably negative news for Conway but he is still overperforming in parts of the rural north.

[Suburbia]

Kentucky Democrats need to keep moving. They cede the state to the GOP, that shows that Democrats will have a hard time with white voters FOREVER.

[cinyc]

Thanks! Is  there a link for all the races for tn for other states too?

MS: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/MS_Governor_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
OH: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/OH_Page_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
VA: http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2015%20November%20General/Site/GeneralAssembly.html

Changing by_state to by_county in the URLs gives you county-level results.