Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Mike88]

It's already 54-46%.

Anyway, Boric will have a very hard time governing. He has a divided congress, especially the Senate, and probably many of his policies could be blocked by the right or even by divisions on the left. What do you think kaoras?

[Mike88]

It's already 54-46%.

Anyway, Boric will have a very hard time governing. He has a divided congress, especially the Senate, and probably many of his policies could be blocked by the right or even by division on the left. What do you think kaoras?

The only hope Boric has is passing lame populist stuff with the help of PDG in the chamber and Ossandon in the senate and hope that the Constitutional convention changes the attribution of congress so much that they have to do early elections if the new constitution is approved.

Wouldn't that upset, for example, the NPS? I mean, it could work in some policies, but in the long hall it will probably lead to a "swampy" territory.

He has to hope, also, that he's still popular if those early elections are even held, because if not, it would backfire.

[Mike88]

It's already 54-46%.

Anyway, Boric will have a very hard time governing. He has a divided congress, especially the Senate, and probably many of his policies could be blocked by the right or even by division on the left. What do you think kaoras?

The only hope Boric has is passing lame populist stuff with the help of PDG in the chamber and Ossandon in the senate and hope that the Constitutional convention changes the attribution of congress so much that they have to do early elections if the new constitution is approved.

Wouldn't that upset, for example, the NPS? I mean, it could work in some policies, but in the long hall it will probably lead to a "swampy" territory.

He has to hope, also, that he's still popular if those early elections are even held, because if not, it would backfire.

DC? maybe. The rest of NPS really doesn't care. Besides, PS is probably going to join his coalition.
And yeah, Boric has to not be so unpopular to get a backlash that could reject the new constitution.

Well, one is enough to "wreck a party", one can say. We'll see.

Also, this Chilean tradition of the incumbent talking to the elected is interesting, but at the same time, a bit cringe. This time is very 2021, via zoom. In 2017, it was by phone, right?

[Mike88]

Boric surpassed Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle in the record of most votes cast for a candidate. In 1993, Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle won 4,040,497 votes. Boric is now at 4,448,861.

Also, there was a record number of ballots cast, more than 8,240,000.

[Mike88]

Hopefully Boric will be better than the terrible Millennial state leaders we've already had (Kurz, Bukele, etc.) He's a Swiftie, so that's a good sign.

Swiftie?? What's that? xD

[Mike88]

Hopefully Boric will be better than the terrible Millennial state leaders we've already had (Kurz, Bukele, etc.) He's a Swiftie, so that's a good sign.

Swiftie?? What's that? xD

Fan of Taylor Swift, from the looks of it.

Ohhh, ok, didn't knew that. I wasn't aware of that term (and to be honest, not surprising, because her music isn't really my thing) xD

[Mike88]

Was it only the presidential run off on Sunday or were there also congressional elections? What is the final makeup of the Chilean parliament?

No, I don't think so. Last weekend was only the runoff of the Presidential elections. The newly elected congress, elected in November, is quite divided between left and right:

Chamber of Deputies:

79 Leftwing (AD, NPS, DA, Greens)
69 Rightwing (ChV, FSC, IU)
  6 PDG (Parisi party)
  1 Independent

Senate:

25 Rightwing (ChV, FSC)
23 Leftwing (NPS, AD)
  2 Independents

[Mike88]

Things don't look good for Boric and the success of this new constitution hangs on the wire, especially in a period of a bad economy worldwide.

Kaoras, what do think Boric would do if the NO in fact prevails?

[Mike88]

Bachelet announced that she will not seek another term as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and will come back to Chile in August, a few weeks before the plebiscite.

Of course, everyone lost its sh**t. The government and the left say she could be an important asset for Approve while the right is either calling for her to not get involved in the plebiscite or saying that she come back because she couldn't get reelected or something.

Fun stuff, and honestly, she could tip the balance somewhat among low-income people. But all the attention is still kinda disproportionate, is just that she really triggers the right for reasons I don't entirely understand.

Latest polls: CADEM: Approve 39 (-3) | Reject 43(-2)
Activa: Approve 29,7 (+1,2) | Reject 41,9 (-3,3)

How is Bachelet record as a UN Commissionaire seen? The media reports about her resignation, at least in my country, completely trash her record, citting human rights association that say she "whitewashed atrocities".

[Mike88]

This referendum and Constitution seems to be following that famous motto: Everything changes, just for everything to stay the same.

Also, why is Evelyn Matthei so popular nowadays? Wasn't she seen as radical just a few years ago?

[Mike88]

It seems that Boric has said that if the "No" side wins the referendum, he will call for a new Constituent Assembly to write a new draft Constitution.

https://www.elobservador.com.uy/nota/si-en-el-plebiscito-triunfa-el-rechazo-boric-convocara-a-una-nueva-constituyente-2022717101335

[Mike88]

But not all is rosy for Approve. Since many centre left figures have said that they are for "Approve to reform", there is pressure to say exactly what they want to reform. This is very likely to lead to internal divisions and polemics. Also, the government has started talking about their pension reform which is bound to be very unpopular because it has and extra 6% payroll tax that is going to a solidarity fund (because in this country everyone wants better pensions but no one wants to pay for it )  

What's the current Social Security tax, on wages of course, without those proposed extra 6%?

[Mike88]

But not all is rosy for Approve. Since many centre left figures have said that they are for "Approve to reform", there is pressure to say exactly what they want to reform. This is very likely to lead to internal divisions and polemics. Also, the government has started talking about their pension reform which is bound to be very unpopular because it has and extra 6% payroll tax that is going to a solidarity fund (because in this country everyone wants better pensions but no one wants to pay for it )  

What's the current Social Security tax, on wages of course, without those proposed extra 6%?

10% exclusively for the individual pension accounts  (that part would not be touched) plus 7% for health insurance.

That would create a 23% SS tax, with health insurance. Adding IRS rates, it's a pretty big tax hike for Chileans. Do businesses also pay SS taxes?

[Mike88]

But not all is rosy for Approve. Since many centre left figures have said that they are for "Approve to reform", there is pressure to say exactly what they want to reform. This is very likely to lead to internal divisions and polemics. Also, the government has started talking about their pension reform which is bound to be very unpopular because it has and extra 6% payroll tax that is going to a solidarity fund (because in this country everyone wants better pensions but no one wants to pay for it )  

What's the current Social Security tax, on wages of course, without those proposed extra 6%?

10% exclusively for the individual pension accounts  (that part would not be touched) plus 7% for health insurance.

That would create a 23% SS tax, with health insurance. Adding IRS rates, it's a pretty big tax hike for Chileans. Do businesses also pay SS taxes?

The extra 6% would be paid by the employers. There is widespread consensus on doing that hike, the squabble is about if is used only for the individual accounts or introducing a solidarity mechanism.

Also, just around 20% pay income taxes because it only applies to salaries above ~680 USD and 80% of salaries are below that (median salary is around 430 USD IRRC) And for most people is a laughable amount.

Oh right. Well, that increase could be to both individual accounts and a solidarity mechanism, like 30-70 in favour of the solidarity mechanism, plus if taxpayers surpass the 7% they pay on health insurance on a yearly basis, they could receive a refund. (Maybe this is already the case, but anyway )

I knew that wages were low in Chile, but didn't know they were this low.

[Mike88]

No poll leaks after the blackout?

[Mike88]

No real change in polling then. Well, Chilean polls are normally very reliable, from what I've seen in past elections, but of course, like Lumine pointed, sometimes polls fail to capture the the true, or hidden, mood of the electorate. Not saying this is the case here, but elections across the world, lately, have been diverging from polling, just look what happened in my country. Polling is a snap shot of a certain moment, but electorates are so volatile and on edge lately, that any could happen really. But, again, I'm not so certain that it's the case in this referendum.

[Mike88]

Well, voting is compulsory, so in theory it shouldn't matter. Pollster put different turnout scenarios because is the first election with compulsory voting and automatic inscription. The Approve camp also beliefs that higher turnout helps them because of lower income and youth voters (even if there's isn't much rationale if you look at polling, for example youth turnout has been very high since 2019). The rally was also much needed morale boost after very rough weeks.

Wait, voting in the referendum is compulsory? Wasn't that scrapped 10 years ago?

[Mike88]

Well, voting is compulsory, so in theory it shouldn't matter. Pollster put different turnout scenarios because is the first election with compulsory voting and automatic inscription. The Approve camp also beliefs that higher turnout helps them because of lower income and youth voters (even if there's isn't much rationale if you look at polling, for example youth turnout has been very high since 2019). The rally was also much needed morale boost after very rough weeks.

Wait, voting in the referendum is compulsory? Wasn't that scrapped 10 years ago?

Yes, it was part of the 2019 deal that started the whole process. So far is only for this specific plebiscite, but is likely that it ends up extender for all elections. 

Are there any penalties for those who don't vote or is it just compulsory on paper with no real consequences if you don't vote?

[Mike88]

Well, voting is compulsory, so in theory it shouldn't matter. Pollster put different turnout scenarios because is the first election with compulsory voting and automatic inscription. The Approve camp also beliefs that higher turnout helps them because of lower income and youth voters (even if there's isn't much rationale if you look at polling, for example youth turnout has been very high since 2019). The rally was also much needed morale boost after very rough weeks.

Wait, voting in the referendum is compulsory? Wasn't that scrapped 10 years ago?

Yes, it was part of the 2019 deal that started the whole process. So far is only for this specific plebiscite, but is likely that it ends up extender for all elections. 

Are there any penalties for those who don't vote or is it just compulsory on paper with no real consequences if you don't vote?

Fine between 30 and 180 USD. SERVEL has said they will have to denounce "everyone that doesn't vote"

Yikes, that's a pretty big fine taking into account wages in Chile.

[Mike88]

Any results from overseas areas? Australia, New Zealand?

[Mike88]

Any results from overseas areas? Australia, New Zealand?

Found them: https://www.meganoticias.cl/nacional/388519-plebiscito-de-salida-2022-resultados-preliminares-en-el-extranjero.html

Australia:

67.2% Approve
32.8% Disapprove

Japan:

67.6% Approve
32.4% Disapprove

South Korea:

63.7% Approve
36.3% Disapprove

New Zealand:

75.8% Approve
24.2% Disapprove

So far, compared with the runoff of the 2021 elections, Approve is down around 8-10% compared with Boric's results in these countries.

[Mike88]

Live coverage of the referendum:

T13:

CHV:

CNN Chile

24horas

[Mike88]

All of the polls in Europe have now closed, with the last ones in Portugal, the UK and Ireland closed at the start of the hour.

[Mike88]

Well, I'm gonna be honest. Even though unlike past elections I won't be a poll watcher, I don't think I'm gonna be in the mood of commenting much tonight. But if the results are close enough to have interesting maps, I will do geographical analysis later. (Though maybe not region by region) and will probably start a new thread with the political developments.

I'm really sorry, Kaoras. I can imagine how disheartening this moment must be for you and all Chileans who had hopes of finally achieving real change. Please don't lose hope - no matter how dark things get (and things are pretty dark in my countries too right now) there's always a way forward.

Unfortunately, both a reject or approve victory would prolong this process. If reject wins, everything is back to square one, and even if approve wins by a 10% margin it's still useless as the country would be somewhat divided and changes on the new Constitution would be inevitable and create divisions. A Constitution needs to have broad approval, minimum 66%+, otherwise it's very complicated because, at the end of the day, the Constitution is the rulebook of a country and if half doesn't accept the rules, it's a recipe for disaster.

This whole process, unfortunately, started lame and as the saying goes "what is born crooked, late or never straightens."

[Mike88]

Compared to the 2021 results it seems Approve total vote actually outran Boric's total vote.  The main problem is Disapprove had a large surge on top of the Kast vote.  It seems for Approve to pass turnout has to be as low as possible.

Looking at the TV coverage, turnout is being massive with the possibility of surpassing the 10 million votes mark for the first time. As Kaoras pointed, turnout is compulsory and if you don't vote, you would have to pay a fine.