TX-SEN: True to Form

[Antonio the Sixth]

I can't believe I'm saying this about Ted Cruz, and we'll have to see the actual bill to be sure, but the talking points about this bill seem very focused and reasonable.  I was expecting him to propose something that would include full funding for the wall, etc., and put Democrats in the position of opposing a fix to the child separation problem.

Are there any substantial differences between his bill and the one proposed by Senate Democrats?

I'm not up on the Senate bill.  This is what I saw for the Cruz bill:

• Double the number of federal immigration judges, from 375 to 750.
  
• Authorize new temporary shelters with accommodations to keep families together.
  
• Mandate that familes must be kept together, absent aggravated criminal conduct or threat of harm to the children.
  
• Provide for expedited processing and review of asylum cases.

These are all reasonable IMO

...wow, they are. I can't believe I'm saying this, but good on Cruz if he's serious about this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

O’Rourke pressure Cruz into a debate.

http://thehill.com/homenews/396438-cruz-has-yet-to-set-date-to-debate-dem-challenger

Its interesting that Cruz doesnt want to debate Beto, even though its been shown that Beto is still a relative lightweight, and Cruz is a master debater. What is he afraid of?

Oh Cruz is definitely a master debater. We know that all right.

I mean, he is. He went to Harvard thanks to his debate skills and, during the O years, was routinely the filibusterer and speaker for the Rs. When he went up against Sanders, even I, agree that he did remarkably well. And Beto is not the greatest. Early on, he fell into a Fox News trap in an interview he arranged.
Its just weird in my opinion. He has little to lose from this and everything to gain. Why wont he do it? Is this race close, like anything can flip this race close? Or is Cruz afraid of losing the debate? What is it?

Name recognition is O'Rourke's main weakness, and debates are golden opportunities for unknown candidates to introduce themselves. My guess is he doesn't want to give him the chance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

If Cruz somehow loses then I think Trump is not DOA, but bordering close to it. If those 38 electoral votes are tossup or Lean R instead of Safe/Likely R that changes the dynamics of 2020 in the Democrats favor. Trump could win the state in 2020 but it could come at the expense of spending and campaigning more there than a NC or a FL perhaps.

Drawing conclusion from an O'Rourke victory for 2020 would be a big mistake. Just because everything aligns perfectly in a Senate race doesn't mean the state has become competitive at the presidential level. Remember a Republican won Illinois in 2010.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Expecting demographics to magically deliver Texas to Dems on a silver platter is dumb. So is assuming that things will always be exactly like they are right now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Grimes was doing about this well in 2014 at this point.

Different national environment, different state. Yawn.

If anything, based on polls-vs-fundamentals discrepancy, this cycle's McConnell is Bill Nelson.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cruz counters Beto's proposed 6 debates with 5. Which sounds great, except that they're all scheduled for Friday nights and the proposal is "all inclusive and final."

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/07/25/ted-cruz-proposes-five-debates-beto-orourke-texas/

I don't know. Most people are out on Friday nights and, unless they are political junkies, won't stay home to watch a senate debate.

Which is why Cruz is proposing it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cruz counters Beto's proposed 6 debates with 5. Which sounds great, except that they're all scheduled for Friday nights and the proposal is "all inclusive and final."

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/07/25/ted-cruz-proposes-five-debates-beto-orourke-texas/

I don't know. Most people are out on Friday nights and, unless they are political junkies, won't stay home to watch a senate debate.

Which is why Cruz is proposing it.

Why not one debate during a week-end and then the other 4 debates set during the week (from a Monday to a Thursday), for example? That way, people will surely be at home to watch debates.

The only reason why Cruz wants it to be on Friday is because he's afraid that people learn more about his record.

Cruz is afraid od O'Rourke gaining in name recognition. He didn't even want to debate him in the first place.

[Antonio the Sixth]

People have been underestimating Beto this entire cycle. (Ex: Despite the tardiness of Cook and others, the race became Lean R at least a month ago. And Zaybay is quite right that it's moving swiftly towards a Tilt.) And they'll probably continue doing so through Election Day. Fine by me!

Just like we understimated Donald Trump during the 2016 election and never thought he could beat Hillary Clinton.

Well, yeah, obviously neither party has a monopoly on cockiness.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I Want To Believe, but it's still Texas.

[Antonio the Sixth]

CBS is in trouble after violently trivializing Beto O'Rourke's remarks about the national anthem.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/entertainment/media/2018/08/25/cbs-news-posts-misleading-tweets-nfl-protests/1098495002/

Can Beto even get more than 15% of the white vote in Texas?

He'll be lucky to get 5% tbh.

[Antonio the Sixth]

CBS is in trouble after violently trivializing Beto O'Rourke's remarks about the national anthem.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/entertainment/media/2018/08/25/cbs-news-posts-misleading-tweets-nfl-protests/1098495002/

Can Beto even get more than 15% of the white vote in Texas?

He'll be lucky to get 5% tbh.

Maybe he’ll get 8%.

Did you pay any attention to the posts below, or do you just enjoy talking out of your ass?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Senator Cruz is a titan of the Constitution

wtf does that even mean

[Antonio the Sixth]

"Rad", seriously? Why not "tubular" while you're at it. Hell, TUBULAR TED would be a neat nickname to stay """hip""" with the """kids""".

[Antonio the Sixth]

That's what the blue wave is, Dems winning in rural states

...Texas is not a "rural state" by any stretch of the definition.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How come Houston Latinos are so Republican? Those numbers look pretty anemic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

TX Republicans have been diving head first into the gutter over the past few weeks, which is quite different from the last year and a half where they've barely acknowledged O'Rourke's presence, or only did so to occasionally mock him. Looks like they're getting pretty nervous.

Yeah, things like these make me feel more optimistic for Beto if anything. They're last-ditch effort by a campaign that's hitting the panic button, not a carefully crafted strategy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I mean yeah, DK is usually pretty hackish, but that doesn't mean they're wrong in this particular case.

[Antonio the Sixth]

^lmao

[Antonio the Sixth]

I love how neither mentions any of the things that are actual problems in California, like say, skyrocketing housing prices and chronic droughts. Oh wait, that's because Republicans are 100% fine with mass poverty and environmental disruption.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is it just me and I'm a complete fool, or more people here who thought Beto is actually Hispanic? I thought he is of Mexican heritage, just to learn that he has Irish roots.

I mean, the "O'Rourke" part seems like a pretty big giveaway.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think it's overrated, but it might make a difference at the margins.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cruz will probably win but the "muh there's no way he loses!!" shtick is getting dumber and dumber by the day. It's really not rocket science: a candidate that's behind by 2 or 3 points in polling averages two months before the election has a significant chance to win their race. Everything else (like "where's muh coalition??") is irrelevant nonsense.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cruz will probably win but the "muh there's no way he loses!!" shtick is getting dumber and dumber by the day. It's really not rocket science: a candidate that's behind by 2 or 3 points in polling averages two months before the election has a significant chance to win their race. Everything else (like "where's muh coalition??") is irrelevant nonsense.

Even assuming that the polls are actually projecting a realistic electorate (not a very safe assumption in Texas), Beto's poll numbers are nothing to write home about. He has not led in a single poll, and his polling is about the same as Bill White's was in 2010.

Beto is only behind by 1 point, 39-38, in the latest poll, you say? (Emerson, 8/22 - 8/25)

Well, Bill White was also only behind by 1 point, 42-41, in the HRC/TexasWatch poll conducted at the same time in 2010 (8/25 - 8/29).

The 5 most recent polls at this time in 2010 had Rick Perry up only by an average of 4.2 points against Bill White in the TX Governors race.

And the 5 most recent polls currently have Cruz up by an average of 4.4 points against Beto in the current TX Senate race.

Also notice that all of these polls showing Beto seeming to be close have high undecideds (something in common with the polls that showed Bill White close). There's a reason we haven't seen any polls with Beto anywhere close to 50%.

(polling data from RCP)

Given that Beto is running in a much more favorable overall national environment than Bill White was, it is pretty telling that he can't even poll any better than Bill White polled.

If you want to make a case that Texas polls systematically overestimate Democrats, you're going to need more evidence than just cherry-picking one election cycle.

Cruz is currently up 3.7 points in 538's adjusted polling average, which is the best metric we have. That translates into a 69% chance of victory. Anything you try to add on top of that is just baseless spin.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Beto needs to walk a very fine line with this Kavanaugh thing.  If Beto states that this sexual assault thing disqualifies Kavanaugh, I could easily see Team Cruz retorting back with "Oh, so what some guy does when he's in high school sullies his job prospects, but your DUI when you're 26 shouldn't disqualify you from this job?!"

> rape
> drunk driving

Totally comparable

[Antonio the Sixth]

Beto needs to walk a very fine line with this Kavanaugh thing.  If Beto states that this sexual assault thing disqualifies Kavanaugh, I could easily see Team Cruz retorting back with "Oh, so what some guy does when he's in high school sullies his job prospects, but your DUI when you're 26 shouldn't disqualify you from this job?!"

> rape
> drunk driving

Totally comparable

You do realize drunk driving can result in the death of other drivers, passengers, and/or pedestrians, right?!

That's not how morality works unless you're a hardcore utilitarian creep.