TX-SEN: True to Form

[Thunder98]

O’Rourke pressure Cruz into a debate.

http://thehill.com/homenews/396438-cruz-has-yet-to-set-date-to-debate-dem-challenger

[Zaybay]

O’Rourke pressure Cruz into a debate.

http://thehill.com/homenews/396438-cruz-has-yet-to-set-date-to-debate-dem-challenger

Its interesting that Cruz doesnt want to debate Beto, even though its been shown that Beto is still a relative lightweight, and Cruz is a master debater. What is he afraid of?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

O’Rourke pressure Cruz into a debate.

http://thehill.com/homenews/396438-cruz-has-yet-to-set-date-to-debate-dem-challenger

Its interesting that Cruz doesnt want to debate Beto, even though its been shown that Beto is still a relative lightweight, and Cruz is a master debater. What is he afraid of?

Oh Cruz is definitely a master debater. We know that all right.

[Zaybay]

O’Rourke pressure Cruz into a debate.

http://thehill.com/homenews/396438-cruz-has-yet-to-set-date-to-debate-dem-challenger

Its interesting that Cruz doesnt want to debate Beto, even though its been shown that Beto is still a relative lightweight, and Cruz is a master debater. What is he afraid of?

Oh Cruz is definitely a master debater. We know that all right.

I mean, he is. He went to Harvard thanks to his debate skills and, during the O years, was routinely the filibusterer and speaker for the Rs. When he went up against Sanders, even I, agree that he did remarkably well. And Beto is not the greatest. Early on, he fell into a Fox News trap in an interview he arranged.
Its just weird in my opinion. He has little to lose from this and everything to gain. Why wont he do it? Is this race close, like anything can flip this race close? Or is Cruz afraid of losing the debate? What is it?

[CatoMinor]

BOLD PREDICTION:

Going purely off of yard signs here in Austin I'm willing to make the following ballsy  prediction, that Beto will win Travis county.

[Antonio the Sixth]

O’Rourke pressure Cruz into a debate.

http://thehill.com/homenews/396438-cruz-has-yet-to-set-date-to-debate-dem-challenger

Its interesting that Cruz doesnt want to debate Beto, even though its been shown that Beto is still a relative lightweight, and Cruz is a master debater. What is he afraid of?

Oh Cruz is definitely a master debater. We know that all right.

I mean, he is. He went to Harvard thanks to his debate skills and, during the O years, was routinely the filibusterer and speaker for the Rs. When he went up against Sanders, even I, agree that he did remarkably well. And Beto is not the greatest. Early on, he fell into a Fox News trap in an interview he arranged.
Its just weird in my opinion. He has little to lose from this and everything to gain. Why wont he do it? Is this race close, like anything can flip this race close? Or is Cruz afraid of losing the debate? What is it?

Name recognition is O'Rourke's main weakness, and debates are golden opportunities for unknown candidates to introduce themselves. My guess is he doesn't want to give him the chance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto needs to keep what he's doing, outreach and let Cruz ignore the ethnic minority vote. The Kavanaugh appointment speaks for itself for ethnic minorities

[UWS]

O’Rourke pressure Cruz into a debate.

http://thehill.com/homenews/396438-cruz-has-yet-to-set-date-to-debate-dem-challenger

Its interesting that Cruz doesnt want to debate Beto, even though its been shown that Beto is still a relative lightweight, and Cruz is a master debater. What is he afraid of?

Oh Cruz is definitely a master debater. We know that all right.

I mean, he is. He went to Harvard thanks to his debate skills and, during the O years, was routinely the filibusterer and speaker for the Rs. When he went up against Sanders, even I, agree that he did remarkably well. And Beto is not the greatest. Early on, he fell into a Fox News trap in an interview he arranged.
Its just weird in my opinion. He has little to lose from this and everything to gain. Why wont he do it? Is this race close, like anything can flip this race close? Or is Cruz afraid of losing the debate? What is it?

Name recognition is O'Rourke's main weakness, and debates are golden opportunities for unknown candidates to introduce themselves. My guess is he doesn't want to give him the chance.

When it comes to the debates, I think the reason why Cruz is afraid to debate is because he will be likely to tell several lies during such debates like he did during the primaries. No wonder he is Lyin' Ted.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/1017215896467791872

Nuclear Elmo?

[Pollster]

O'Rourke raised over $10 million this quarter.

[Ebsy]

Looking forward to Cruz saying something along the lines of "I am the underdog in this race." at a campaign rally (assuming he is going to have some at some point?).

[UWS]

Outraising Cruz with $10 million in campaign donations, trailing him by just 2 percentage points according to Civiqs, pressuring Cruz for a debate, an immigration crisis that seems to be mobilizing Texas' Hispanic vote in favor of O'Rourke, etc.

O'Rourke seems to be having a good summer.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Outraising Cruz with $10 million in campaign donations, trailing him by just 2 percentage points according to Civiqs, pressuring Cruz for a debate, an immigration crisis that seems to be mobilizing Texas' Hispanic vote in favor of O'Rourke, etc.

O'Rourke seems to be having a good summer.

Civiqs poll is a clear outlier here. Race seems to be more like +6 to +8 Cruz.

$10 million in 1 quarter is pretty bonkers but the TX GOP swamp runs deep, and Beto is probably much too leftwing for TX.

[KingSweden]

That is a bonkers amount of money

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto will win this race on election day, not by daily tracking polls, in which failed to predict the chances of Gillespie against Warner. Which it will be an upset if Beto were to win

[Zaybay]

Outraising Cruz with $10 million in campaign donations, trailing him by just 2 percentage points according to Civiqs, pressuring Cruz for a debate, an immigration crisis that seems to be mobilizing Texas' Hispanic vote in favor of O'Rourke, etc.

O'Rourke seems to be having a good summer.

Civiqs poll is a clear outlier here. Race seems to be more like +6 to +8 Cruz.

$10 million in 1 quarter is pretty bonkers but the TX GOP swamp runs deep, and Beto is probably much too leftwing for TX.

I agree that this poll is an outlier, but I would say that the race is around 4-5 in favor of Cruz, but with a good chunk of undecideds. It seems like Beto's job is getting easier every day. His cash flow is immense, Cruz is playing an extremely defensive game, and The Blue wave should be around D+10 by election day. I think this race is indeed flip able, but Beto needs to go all out, build an operation on the ground, and not waste all of it on Ads.

[UWS]

Beto will win this race on election day, not by daily tracking polls, in which failed to predict the chances of Gillespie against Warner. Which it will be an upset if Beto were to win

Even in the 2016 presidential election most of the polls were predicting that Hillary Clinton would win before the whole world was stunned when Donald Trump won the election thanks to Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. So even there, the polls failed to predict the outcome of the presidential election.

So we should expect such surprises for the 2018 midterms.

[cp]

Beto will win this race on election day, not by daily tracking polls, in which failed to predict the chances of Gillespie against Warner. Which it will be an upset if Beto were to win

Even in the 2016 presidential election most of the polls were predicting that Hillary Clinton would win before the whole world was stunned when Donald Trump won the election thanks to Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. So even there, the polls failed to predict the outcome of the presidential election.

So we should expect such surprises for the 2018 midterms.

We *should* expect surprises in the 2018 election, as with all elections, but doing so on the basis of polling error in 2016 is unfounded.

The polls in 2016 showed Clinton with a 1-3 point lead in the popular vote and she ended up with a 3 point lead in the election. It wasn't the polls that failed in 2016, it was the interpretation of them by forecasters, most of whom did not appreciate how tenuous Clinton's lead was in the states you mentioned.

Anyway, back to Texas: is there any possibility that Cruz could depress his own turnout by being insufficiently hard line about the ICE child refugee prisons and family separation policy? It seems like the sort of thing that Texas Republicans would take the most extreme positions on, but Cruz has been somewhat soft on the issue.

[Canis]

Beto will win this race on election day, not by daily tracking polls, in which failed to predict the chances of Gillespie against Warner. Which it will be an upset if Beto were to win

Even in the 2016 presidential election most of the polls were predicting that Hillary Clinton would win before the whole world was stunned when Donald Trump won the election thanks to Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. So even there, the polls failed to predict the outcome of the presidential election.

So we should expect such surprises for the 2018 midterms.

We *should* expect surprises in the 2018 election, as with all elections, but doing so on the basis of polling error in 2016 is unfounded.

The polls in 2016 showed Clinton with a 1-3 point lead in the popular vote and she ended up with a 3 point lead in the election. It wasn't the polls that failed in 2016, it was the interpretation of them by forecasters, most of whom did not appreciate how tenuous Clinton's lead was in the states you mentioned.

Anyway, back to Texas: is there any possibility that Cruz could depress his own turnout by being insufficiently hard line about the ICE child refugee prisons and family separation policy? It seems like the sort of thing that Texas Republicans would take the most extreme positions on, but Cruz has been somewhat soft on the issue.

Cruz and the tx gop seem to be making the same mistake that Clinton in 2016 and mark warner made in 2014. Overconfidence Cruz is convinced he is going to win that's all they keep talking about 'Texas is a red state and its going to be that way for a long time to come" that will depress turnout among your base. Why show up if you know your going to win?

[UWS]

Beto will win this race on election day, not by daily tracking polls, in which failed to predict the chances of Gillespie against Warner. Which it will be an upset if Beto were to win

Even in the 2016 presidential election most of the polls were predicting that Hillary Clinton would win before the whole world was stunned when Donald Trump won the election thanks to Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. So even there, the polls failed to predict the outcome of the presidential election.

So we should expect such surprises for the 2018 midterms.

We *should* expect surprises in the 2018 election, as with all elections, but doing so on the basis of polling error in 2016 is unfounded.

The polls in 2016 showed Clinton with a 1-3 point lead in the popular vote and she ended up with a 3 point lead in the election. It wasn't the polls that failed in 2016, it was the interpretation of them by forecasters, most of whom did not appreciate how tenuous Clinton's lead was in the states you mentioned.

Anyway, back to Texas: is there any possibility that Cruz could depress his own turnout by being insufficiently hard line about the ICE child refugee prisons and family separation policy? It seems like the sort of thing that Texas Republicans would take the most extreme positions on, but Cruz has been somewhat soft on the issue.

Cruz and the tx gop seem to be making the same mistake that Clinton in 2016 and mark warner made in 2014. Overconfidence Cruz is convinced he is going to win that's all they keep talking about 'Texas is a red state and its going to be that way for a long time to come" that will depress turnout among your base. Why show up if you know your going to win?

Meanwhile, the Democratic turnout in Texas seems likely to be much stronger than ever before, which could play in favor of O'Rourke.

[Gass3268]

I'm like 95% sure he's going to lose, but Beto's stronger than normal performance could help flip 3 House seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

3 House seats that Greg Abbott would redistrict right back to GOP

[Webnicz]

thats an insane amount of money. 10 mil is basically what some senate candidates raise in an entire cycle #DemsInDisarray

[Zaybay]

Beto will win this race on election day, not by daily tracking polls, in which failed to predict the chances of Gillespie against Warner. Which it will be an upset if Beto were to win

Even in the 2016 presidential election most of the polls were predicting that Hillary Clinton would win before the whole world was stunned when Donald Trump won the election thanks to Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. So even there, the polls failed to predict the outcome of the presidential election.

So we should expect such surprises for the 2018 midterms.

We *should* expect surprises in the 2018 election, as with all elections, but doing so on the basis of polling error in 2016 is unfounded.

The polls in 2016 showed Clinton with a 1-3 point lead in the popular vote and she ended up with a 3 point lead in the election. It wasn't the polls that failed in 2016, it was the interpretation of them by forecasters, most of whom did not appreciate how tenuous Clinton's lead was in the states you mentioned.

Anyway, back to Texas: is there any possibility that Cruz could depress his own turnout by being insufficiently hard line about the ICE child refugee prisons and family separation policy? It seems like the sort of thing that Texas Republicans would take the most extreme positions on, but Cruz has been somewhat soft on the issue.

Cruz and the tx gop seem to be making the same mistake that Clinton in 2016 and mark warner made in 2014. Overconfidence Cruz is convinced he is going to win that's all they keep talking about 'Texas is a red state and its going to be that way for a long time to come" that will depress turnout among your base. Why show up if you know your going to win?

I dont think Cruz is thinks hes gonna win easily. I think he is panicking. All of his actions are ones someone who was extremely vulnerable would take.
1. Not having a debate
2. Calling all possible doners
3. Not releasing internal polling
Hes not even airing many ads.
I believe Cruz is seeing information that says that if Beto gets name rec. hes done. He is not taking the right steps to stop this, however.
Cruz should be labelling Beto before he can, and trying to highlight his accomplishments. Instead, he is lulling his own base to sleep with his rhetoric, and trying to display overconfidence.
As a blue pollster said previously.

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[Thunder98]

Looking more like the TX Sen race is going to be a battleground this fall.