2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Doimper]

Democrats +15 in the new Fox Poll

Doesn't this create at least some level of cognitive dissonance for olds plugged into Fox? They hear Hannity talking for hours about how Trump is doing an A+ fantastic great best job and that Democrats are incompetent, and then are shown a poll showing the apparent opposite.

I guess it feeds into the "congressional Republicans are hamstringing Trump" narrative?

[Doimper]

Some historical generic ballot data from 1994, 2010, etc. Interesting that Dems had a lead in October 1994.

[Doimper]

Conflating Trump disapproval with being pro-Democrat is a dangerous mistake.

Part of what I quoted were separate questions which showed 18-29 year olds preferred Democrats for Congress by a 2:1 margin - same as 2008, more or less. See the quotation box. The approval image was different from that.

Ah, guess I misread your post. But Harvard's new study doesn't have me feeling comfortable.

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Granted, millennials are 22-37 at this point, so not quite the same age group you referred to.

Shut up, I'm a millenial. Gen Z is 2000 on. Any other definition of millenial is dogpoop.

The definition of what constitutes a millennial still hasn't really settled, but I've generally heard cutoffs ranging from 1995 to 1998.

[Doimper]

Barrasso is done

Businessman Gary Trauner, who narrowly lost 48-47 to Rep. Barbara Cubin in 2008, is challenging Sen. Barrasso for WY-SEN in 2018

Safe R. Still good to have insurance in case another Moore-esque situation comes up, though.

[Doimper]

Interesting. New Mclaughlin poll has Democrats narrowly leading the generic ballot 45-44.

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2017/12/20/december-national-survey-results/

lol

[Doimper]

PPP has a bunch of (I think) new House polls:

CA-10: Denham trails Generic Democrat 49-41
CA-39: Royce trails Generic Democrat 46-43
CA-45: Walters trails Generic Democrat 45-41
NJ-11: Frelinghuysen trails Generic Democrat 49-40
PA-08: Fitzpatrick trails Generic Democrat 47-41

https://mobile.twitter.com/ppppolls/status/943596029068312576?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Eios%7Ctwgr%5Eother

Holy sh-t, these numbers are apocalyptic. Frelinghuysen down nine? Roskam down ten? Jesus Christ.

Also, someone did the math - these numbers line up with a roughly 16% shift from 2016.

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[Doimper]

Democrats cross 50% in the 538 tracker for the first time: what a glorious Christmas gift!

Hmm. Interesting.

[Doimper]

Democrats 50.1%
Republicans 37.3%

I'd bet a thousand dollars they're below 48 by the 10th of January due to Tax Reform Bump.

I'm absolutely willing to take this wager. Pollsters will slow down polling during Christmas/New Year's anyway. Do you have Venmo?

The bet was between me and myself unfortunately.

Interesting. Hmm.

[Doimper]

I question the Democrats' ability to keep enthusiasm high for another 11 months. I doubt it can remain at the levels immediately post Trump, especially if Mueller clears Trump and Congress passes infrastructure spending.

Now I know what being a Republican in 2010 must've felt like.

[Doimper]

Apparently Republicans have dumped more money against Baldwin than all other Senate Democrats combined? Why?

[Doimper]

Not looking too hot for the GOP right now on how many seats will they lose in the House:

What market is this?

[Doimper]

Not looking too hot for the GOP right now on how many seats will they lose in the House:

What market is this?

https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/79

85 or more is wildly optimistic (or pessimistic depending on your viewpoint).  I wonder if someone is manipulating that market.

It's been at 85 + since the market was established. I don't think 70+ is unrealistic at all given a combination of factors

Since this is referring to "turnover", does that include retirements?

[Doimper]

Not looking too hot for the GOP right now on how many seats will they lose in the House:

What market is this?

https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/79

85 or more is wildly optimistic (or pessimistic depending on your viewpoint).  I wonder if someone is manipulating that market.

It's been at 85 + since the market was established. I don't think 70+ is unrealistic at all given a combination of factors

Since this is referring to "turnover", does that include retirements?

Yes. Dunno why this is being hyped so much.

Based on the way it's described ("how many seats will they lose in the House") I assumed it was net loss of seats. 

Where does it say that?

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[Doimper]

Shocking how little Senate polling we have so far. Virtually nothing for WV, PA, WI, ND, IN, MT, OH.

Right? Of course PPP came up with a Trump-Cuban matchup in Texas, though.

[Doimper]

All of the congressional generic ballot polling data per The Roper Center going back to 1963:



Obvious Blue Wave is obvious

Jesus, that post-Watergate reach to 70.

[Doimper]

lol

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[Doimper]

Quinnipiac: D+17

Dem: 52
Rep: 35

Source

Is this the tax reform bump in action?

[Doimper]

Yikes. That alone means all Clinton districts in California fall and probably a few surprises too.

Oh man, with a D+17 House PV, we'd be way past talking about Clinton districts. That margin would probably get Democrats awfully close to a veto-proof majority in the chamber. Not that I personally think that result is actually possible, though. This kind of poll does remind me of RCP's 2006/2008 listings - there were tons of polls showing mid-high teens for Democrats, but it eventually settled at a lower margin.

Yeah, if we're talking 17-point margins, we should be looking at that map Griffin made of 120 potentially competitive districts.

[Doimper]

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http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/01/15/bill-nelson-raised-2-4-million-in-last-quarter-campaign-says/

On a related note, I found out today that Cornregard Southron Buttermilk McGillicuddy XXV is now a lobbyist for Viktor Orban. Wonder who Rubio would've sold out to if Crist beat him - Erdogan?

[Doimper]

Jesus, people, it's ten months to the election. Were Republicans crapping themselves in 2010, when Democrats were getting leads in some reputable generic ballot polls as late as September?

We just saw, what, a 30+ point swing in deep Wisconsin? 2018 is going to be good to us.

[Doimper]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

I see your New Year's resolution has worn off.  Time to put you back on Ignore.

I'm not sure why "lol I was only pretending to be dumb" justified taking him off ignore in the first place?

[Doimper]

Also, anybody who's still concern trolling with that Minnesota poll after the results in Wisconsin deserves to be laughed at.

[Doimper]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

I see your New Year's resolution has worn off.  Time to put you back on Ignore.

I'm not sure why "lol I was only pretending to be dumb" justified taking him off ignore in the first place?

Because I am not invulnerable to foolishly hoping for the best in people, and having a fool made of me for it

I learned this lesson in November 2016.

[Doimper]

Should we split out Generic ballot from all other items into its own thread?

I think that's a good idea.

[Doimper]

I'd be surprised if Ryan didn't run for re-election, but I don't think it's improbable. The seat would be vulnerable if the two recent Wisconsin specials are anything to go by. The filing deadline in June 1st.

Would be nice to get a high-profile challenger that's not Randy Bryce.