2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[LimoLiberal]

Qpac: D+11
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2514
Was D+17 like five days ago

Also, 40-59 people are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the nation. Best since 2005. Could be a major boon to Republicans and Trump.

The GOP is not going to win 2018. Get that in your head.

Well, more people are satisfied with the way things are going in the nation for 13 years, under an R president, senate, and house. Means something.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Qpac: D+11
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2514
Was D+17 like five days ago

Also, 40-59 people are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the nation. Best since 2005. Could be a major boon to Republicans and Trump.

The GOP is not going to win 2018. Get that in your head.

Well, more people are satisfied with the way things are going in the nation for 13 years, under an R president, senate, and house. Means something.

Well if we are going to play that game. Congressional approval is far lower today than it was in November 2010, you know, the year the Dems lost 63 seats? Let's couple that with the fact the Dems presided over an extremely active congress and passed a record number of bills. The GOP could barely pass a tax reform bill. Give it a rest.

[LimoLiberal]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

[Gass3268]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

WI-SD-10 proves this poll to be wrong.

[Brittain33]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

Isn't this the same MN poll that you posted a few days ago that had Trump with a 45% approval rating? It looks like they're just releasing a different datapoint from the same finding. Overall, the poll is a massive outlier.

[LimoLiberal]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

Isn't this the same MN poll that you posted a few days ago that had Trump with a 45% approval rating? It looks like they're just releasing a different datapoint from the same finding. Overall, the poll is a massive outlier.

Kyle Kondik seems to be taking it very seriously. Of course, it really does not match up at all with SD-10 result.

[Brittain33]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

Isn't this the same MN poll that you posted a few days ago that had Trump with a 45% approval rating? It looks like they're just releasing a different datapoint from the same finding. Overall, the poll is a massive outlier.

Kyle Kondik seems to be taking it very seriously. Of course, it really does not match up at all with SD-10 result.

It's certainly an alarming result and Star-Tribune isn't a fly-by-night polling company, and there's definitely tightening across the field. All that said, this is a textbook outlier for now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

I see your New Year's resolution has worn off.  Time to put you back on Ignore.

[KingSweden]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

I see your New Year's resolution has worn off.  Time to put you back on Ignore.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Limo's going to very disappointed when the shutdown destroys the GOP numbers.

[Devout Centrist]

This is amounting to spam. Surely deleting some posts is necessary at this point.

[Holmes]

I used to like this thread when people discussed candidate recruitments, retirements and fundraising.

[KingSweden]

I used to like this thread when people discussed candidate recruitments, retirements and fundraising.

[Doimper]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

I see your New Year's resolution has worn off.  Time to put you back on Ignore.

I'm not sure why "lol I was only pretending to be dumb" justified taking him off ignore in the first place?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

I see your New Year's resolution has worn off.  Time to put you back on Ignore.

I'm not sure why "lol I was only pretending to be dumb" justified taking him off ignore in the first place?

I took him off because some of his posts that I saw quoted were reasonable and interesting.  (I won't make the same mistake again.)

[Doimper]

Also, anybody who's still concern trolling with that Minnesota poll after the results in Wisconsin deserves to be laughed at.

[Virginiá]

I mean, the election isn't for ~10 months. Look at how much the landscape changed over the past 10 months. This is an environment that is constantly pressing down on Republicans, as opposed to the Obama era, where Democrats were constantly having their hopes snuffed out by an unpopular Democratic president. Even if the next 2-3 months return the generic polls to their March-May position, there is no reason to think it will stay there. In fact, given how scandal-prone Trump is, it's more likely they will return to a generic poll average of 10 points or more. These bonus/tax reform-related good news stories won't last forever.

I'll start really worrying if we're entering July and Trump's approval ratings are nearing 50% and showing no signs of weakening. That would truly be something else, given how offensive Trump is to so many people.

[Dr. Arch]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

I see your New Year's resolution has worn off.  Time to put you back on Ignore.

And you're not coming off this time.

[KingSweden]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

I see your New Year's resolution has worn off.  Time to put you back on Ignore.

I'm not sure why "lol I was only pretending to be dumb" justified taking him off ignore in the first place?

Because I am not invulnerable to foolishly hoping for the best in people, and having a fool made of me for it

[Doimper]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

I see your New Year's resolution has worn off.  Time to put you back on Ignore.

I'm not sure why "lol I was only pretending to be dumb" justified taking him off ignore in the first place?

Because I am not invulnerable to foolishly hoping for the best in people, and having a fool made of me for it

I learned this lesson in November 2016.

[The Other Castro]

Pew: Democrats lead +14 (53-39)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.people-press.org/2018/01/18/2-the-2018-congressional-elections/

[LimoLiberal]

New Pew Poll. Democrats lead generic ballot by 14 points (53-39).

http://www.people-press.org/2018/01/18/public-sees-better-year-ahead-democrats-sharpen-focus-on-midterm-elections/

Lots of numbers in there showing that Democrats are more engaged than ever as well.

[Gass3268]

I'm starting to get the feeling that the crappy pollsters are really starting to drive the meme that Democrats are in free fall. Rassy and Morning Consult both use likey voter models. One that is stupid this far out and two it is probably based on a screening process that requires the respondent to have voted in 2014, which recent elections have shown is the wrong thing to do.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew: Democrats lead +14 (53-39)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.people-press.org/2018/01/18/2-the-2018-congressional-elections/

I don't find a previous generic ballot poll from Pew, but FWIW they've typically been on the low end for Trump approvals.

[Brittain33]

This is amounting to spam. Surely deleting some posts is necessary at this point.

I can't speak for Virginia, but I want to acknowledge this post and say I have not seen any reason to delete posts. The posts are reporting valid polls and the comments are not out of line. People should feel free to report individual posts as always.