Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

For the new name of the united party, DPJ proposes 立憲民主党 (Constitutional Democratic Party) while JIP proposes 民進党 (Democratic Progressive Party).

[Asian Nazi]

For the new name of the united party, DPJ proposes 立憲民主党 (Constitutional Democratic Party) while JIP proposes 民進党 (Democratic Progressive Party).

I like the first one better, and not only because it'd be dumb to have two prominent Democratic Progressive Parties in East Asia.

[jaichind]

For the new name of the united party, DPJ proposes 立憲民主党 (Constitutional Democratic Party) while JIP proposes 民進党 (Democratic Progressive Party).

I like the first one better, and not only because it'd be dumb to have two prominent Democratic Progressive Parties in East Asia.

Well, I obviously object to Democratic Progressive Party in the sense that out of all the larger political parities in the world the pro-Taiwan Independence DPP of ROC is the party I detest the most.  If we rank political ideas I detest the most it would be Taiwan Independence as number one followed closely by Welfare State as number two.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I think it's funny that the JIP are the ones proposing the name with the word 'progressive' in it. I like the DPJ's name better, mainly because I hate the word 'progressive'.

If we rank political ideas I detest the most it would be Taiwan Independence as number one followed closely by Welfare State as number two.

You know, the good work you do in curating threads like this does a great job distracting from what a massive HP you are. Just an observation.

[Хahar 🤔]

If we rank political ideas I detest the most it would be Taiwan Independence as number one followed closely by Welfare State as number two.

You know, the good work you do in curating threads like this does a great job distracting from what a massive HP you are. Just an observation.

That's what the International Elections board is all about.

[jaichind]

DPJ and JIP merged party will be called 民進黨 or DIP (Democratic Innovation Party) based on polls the DPJ and JIP did to see which name is more popular.  In theory 民進黨 should translate into Democratic Progressive Party but I guess JIP wanted the word Innovation in it.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

DPJ and JIP merged party will be called 民進黨 or DIP (Democratic Innovation Party) based on polls the DPJ and JIP did to see which name is more popular.  In theory 民進黨 should translate into Democratic Progressive Party but I guess JIP wanted the word Innovation in it.

Gross, but better than it could be.

Wikipedia also suggests the translation 'Popular Sentiment'. Personally I don't get that out of 民進 minshin but I can sort of see how they do. At the very least 'popular' is probably a better translation for 民 without 主 than 'democratic' is.

[jaichind]

Update on DIP-JCP talks on JCP withdrawing candidates in 1- seat district and backing the DIP candidate running as an independent



Those district in Blue are prefectures where such a deal have been made.  They are

宮城   Miyagi
福井   Fukui
長野   Nagano
徳島/高知   Tokushima/Kōchi
宮崎   Miyazaki
沖縄   Okinawa (not Blue yet because DIP has to come out for the Leftist independent which they will)

Frankly, other than Nagano, Miyagi, and Okinawa as none of the other districts makes a difference as the LDP is going to win no matter what.  What is key is to get deals in places like 岩手   Iwate (just to make sure PLP wins), 山形 Yamagata, 福島   Fukushima, 山梨 Yamanashi, 新潟 Niigata, 三重 Mie, and 滋賀 Shiga.  These are LDP-DIP marginal seats where JCP support could make it competitive or give DIP the edge.

[jaichind]

Time for a projection update from me.   Given the DPJ-JIP merger into DIP as well as progress on DIP-JCP talks on joint candidates it does shift around what I would expect the result to be as well as what those on Japanese political discussion broad consensus are.  I assume that DIP and JCP will eventually make deals in 1- seats districts where it counts but fail to do so for multi-member districts.

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP LDP DIP  
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP          
宮城   Miyagi               1             LDP      
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             LDP                                
福島   Fukushima       1             DIP                            
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DIP                            
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP KP DIP                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DIP                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP KP DIP JCP          
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP        
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP LDP KP DIP JCP DIP
新潟   Niigata             1             LDP                                  
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DIP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DIP                            
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP KP DIP DIP                
三重   Mie                   1             DIP                                
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP        
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP DIP    
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP ORA ORA                  
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP ORA      
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DIP    
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP DIP                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1             LDP            
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1             OSMP          

This along with PR section gives us

          Vote share     PR seat      District seats         Total
LDP       32.0%          16               43                       59
KP         13.5%            7                7                       14
DIP        25.0%          12              16                       28
SDP        2.5%             1                0                        1
PLP         2.0%             1                1                        2
ORA      10.0%             5                3                        8
PJK         0.75%           0                0                         0
JCP       12.5%             6                2                         8
AEJ         0.75%           0                0                        0
OSMP                                             1                        1

As for Japanese political discussion boards.  The consensus there is a bit more bullish for LDP and ORA than what I have in terms of PR vote.  For district seats they seem to match my projection except for

1) 神奈川(Kanagawa) - Japanese political discussion board consensus seem to feel that a second ex-YP MP now running with LDP will win the last seat over JCP.  I say the ability of LDP-KP to coordinate the votes among 3 candidates will be hard and DIP tactical voting will give JCP the last seat.
2) 東京(Tokyo) -  Japanese political discussion board consensus seem to feel that ORA will capture the last seat as opposed to the second DIP candidate.  I say that anti-LDP center-right vote will be split between ORA and the AEJ candidate giving DIP the last seat.
3) 愛知(Aichi) -  Japanese political discussion board consensus seem to feel that ORA will capture the last seat over DIP given the ORA alliance with the DPJ Aichi center-right splinter TCJ.  I say that TCJ vote base overlaps with ORA anyway so the sum the two is not enough to stop DIP from winning its second seat.
4) 三重(Mie) - Japanese political discussion board consensus seem to feel that the DIP-JCP alliance will not click and LDP will win this old LDP-DPJ marginal seat.  I say the anti-LDP base is large enough here that DIP with JCP support should win.
 
These differences gives us

         Vote share     PR seat      District seats         Total
LDP       33.5%          17               45                       62
KP         13.5%            7                7                       14
DPJ        21.5%          11              13                       23
SDP        2.5%             1                0                        1
PLP         1.5%             0                1                        1
ORA       12.5%            6                5                      11
PJK         1.5%            0                0                         0
JCP       12.0%             6                1                        7
AEJ         0.5%            0                0                        0
OSMP                                            1                        1

So I have pro-Constitutional change/anti-Constitutional change at 81/40 while the Japanese political discussion board consensus has it at 87/34.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

jaichind, any chance Minshintō gets a logo or something unveiled soon? I'd like to put one in my signature.

(P.S. the official English name is just 'Democratic Party', which I think is stupid.)

[jaichind]

jaichind, any chance Minshintō gets a logo or something unveiled soon? I'd like to put one in my signature.

(P.S. the official English name is just 'Democratic Party', which I think is stupid.)

Wow. I did not check.  I had no idea they decided to map 民進黨 to DP.   Looking at

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Innovation_Party#cite_note-dp-1

It seems DIP is an accepted English version but I guess the official version is DP.

[jaichind]

From Kyoto news agency.  I have go look into which seats they are


JCP agrees to withdraw 9 candidates from upper house election
Sunday, March 20, 2016 06:26 AM
TOKYO, March 20 Kyodo
The Japanese Communist Party has agreed to withdraw nine candidates from the upcoming House of Councillors election and may hold back at least 11 more in a push by opposition parties to form a united front against the ruling coalition, opposition sources said Sunday.
The party originally planned to field candidates in 30 of 32 single-member electoral districts. With talks under way to unify more candidates, opposition parties may be able to agree to cooperate in 80 percent of the 32 districts, a senior official of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan said.
Talks between opposition parties accelerated after the JCP agreed to build a unified force against the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on condition that unified candidates call for a scrapping of the new security laws that the JCP and other opponents claim to be unconstitutional.
The laws enacted in September 2015 mark a change from Japan's exclusively defense-orientated post-World War II security policy, greatly expanding the role the Self-Defense Forces can play when they are sent abroad.
JCP leader Kazuo Shii has said the party would withdraw "a considerable number of its candidates" from the single-member districts, but has not provided a detailed plan.
Half of the 242 upper house seats come up for election every three years. Of the 121 seats up for grabs, 73 will be filled by winners in single- and multiple-member electoral districts while the remaining 48 are chosen under the nationwide party-list proportional representation system.
Abe's Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner the Komeito party presently control a majority in the upper house and a two-thirds majority in the 475-seat House of Representatives, the more powerful lower chamber of the Diet.

[jaichind]

Latest on DP-PLP-JCP talks on 1- seat districts. 



It seems deals have been made in

青森(Aomori) - DP candidate
宮城(Miyagi) - DP candidate
栃木(Tochigi) - center-left independent
新潟(Niigata) - PLP candidate
福井(Fukui) - center-left independent
山梨(Yamanashi) - DP candidate
長野(Nagano) - DP candidate
鳥取(Tottori/
島根(Shimane) - center-left independent
徳島(Tokushima)/
高知(Kōchi) - cente-left independent
長崎(Nagasaki) - DP candidate
熊本(Kumamoto) - center-left independent
宮崎(Miyazaki) - center-left independent
沖縄(Okinawa) - OSMP candidate

This deals puts Miyagi, Niigata, and Yamanashi  in play although LDP most likely still have a slight advantage.  It also gives DP an advantage in Nagano and adds to the OSMP advantage in Okinawa.  The rest does not matter as LDP is going to win no matter what.

Other key targets for an alliance must be 福島(Fukushima) where a DP-JCP deal would give the DP the upper hand over LDP, 滋賀(Shiga) where a deal will make it a tossup, and 大分(Ōita) where a deal will put it in play.  What should be an worry for DP should be that talks are going nowhere in 山形(Yamagata) where a deal would put it in play and 三重(Mie) where a deal would give the DP an advantage.  In Mie the local DP chapter is quite hostile to JCP so it is not clear a deal is possible.  Not clear why there are not talks in 岩手(Iwate) where PLP-JCP relationships seems quite positive.  I guess PLP will win no matter what.   There are talks for other 1- districts but they do not matter as LDP will win them no matter what.  I have listed the ones that matter.

[jaichind]

jaichind, any chance Minshintō gets a logo or something unveiled soon? I'd like to put one in my signature.

(P.S. the official English name is just 'Democratic Party', which I think is stupid.)

It seems that this is the DP logo



Not very original.  As much as I despise the ROC DPP even I think their logo is better.

[jaichind]

熊本(Kumamoto) had an election for governor this weekend whose exit polls are quite instructive on the nature of polling in Japan.  A popular incumbent backed by all non-JCP parties cruised to victory with 68.1% of the vote.  A pro-LDP independent also tried out his luck and got 27.3% of the vote while the pro-JCP candidate got 4.6%.   The exit poll is quite interesting



The partisan breakdown of the voters are the following

LDP   53
DPJ   12
KP      3
JCP     2
JIP      1
ORA    1
SDP    1
None 27

What one gets from this are that KP must be very weak here and LDP super strong.  While LDP-KP is very strong in Kumamoto these exit polls are quite deceptive on the relative strength of parties.  The PR vote in Kumamoto in 2014 was

LDP  37.3%
KP    18.0%
DPJ   14.1%
JIP    14.9%
JCP     8.2%
PLP    1.6%
SDP    3.1%
PFG    2.2%

So while the exit poll got the headline number of LDP+KP roughly correctly, it is way over-biased in favor of LDP.  Many KP supporters are afraid to indicate their support for KP in public, including pollsters.  The KP voter crave social respectability so they usually claim they support LDP which is not illogical given the LDP-KP alliance.  As for non-LDP-KP parties, given the domination of LDP relative to opposition parties many opposition party supporters are reluctant to indicate their partisan alignment so they say none.

This exit poll is example how I usually "un-skew" Japanese polls.  I usually take the LDP+KP vote share in polls and add perhaps 1%-2% and that is what LDP-KP will get.  KP always gets 14%-15% nationally in a low turnout election so the LDP vote share is derived from that number minus 14%-15%.  The rest is all non-LDP-KP.

[jaichind]

Now that JIP (維新の党) merged into DP along with DPJ.  ORA (大阪維新の会) is moving in to reclaim the "維新" (Ishin) label.  It seems that ORA will now rename itself 日本維新の会 or Japan Restoration Party (JRP) which was the name it had in 2014 before it merged with YP splinter UP to form JIP.   Although most likely for the 2016 elections it still will be ORA and this renaming will most likely take place after the July elections.

[Vega]

I actually like the plain branding of the "Democratic Party". I don't know why they didn't keep the "of Japan" part, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You've gotta admit, this is one of the blandest party name and logo ever.

[Vega]

Would the fortunes of the Democrats be any better if they had a different leader? I know Goshi Hosono came close in the last leadership election, and he is a fair shake different than other Japanese politicians from the looks of it. Would he be doing any better?

Also, if the DP fails to make gains in the Councillors election, I assume Okada will be resigning, right?

[jaichind]

Would the fortunes of the Democrats be any better if they had a different leader? I know Goshi Hosono came close in the last leadership election, and he is a fair shake different than other Japanese politicians from the looks of it. Would he be doing any better?

Also, if the DP fails to make gains in the Councillors election, I assume Okada will be resigning, right?

I think the issue is not a leader but that DPJ and now DP is a big tent party so it is hard for a leader to show charisma by putting the stake down for a particular stark policy vision due to the disagreements between different factions.  DP factions are centered around conflicting policy positions while LDP factions are centered around different vested interests. For DP to win LDP has to be discredited like in 2009.   As for will Okada resign based on the 2016 elections, understand that no matter what DP will lose seats relative to the 2010 election result.  Issue is how much.  I think if DP wins all the marginal 1- seats and do well in various multi-members seats like Tokyo, Kanagawa, Aichi, and somehow make a small revival in Osaka, then Okada would have pass the test. 

[Vega]

Interesting piece where Aki Abe (the PM's wife) throws some cold water on the idea of amending the LDP constitution to extend his time as LDP President and thus Prime Minister.

I always found the term limit on LDP Leaders to be curious. Koizumi probably would have stayed in office for at least another 4 years had he not been hamstrung by it, and it's not like Japanese PMs are known for being in office for an elongated period of time anyway.

[jaichind]

Interesting piece where Aki Abe (the PM's wife) throws some cold water on the idea of amending the LDP constitution to extend his time as LDP President and thus Prime Minister.

I always found the term limit on LDP Leaders to be curious. Koizumi probably would have stayed in office for at least another 4 years had he not been hamstrung by it, and it's not like Japanese PMs are known for being in office for an elongated period of time anyway.

There are talk that what Abe can do is to resign as PM when his term as LDP President is up in 2018 but then his successor is a puppet who will step down as LDP President after 6 months which will provoke another election which Abe will promptly win. It seems unlikely something obviously fishy will take place.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Interesting piece where Aki Abe (the PM's wife) throws some cold water on the idea of amending the LDP constitution to extend his time as LDP President and thus Prime Minister.

I always found the term limit on LDP Leaders to be curious. Koizumi probably would have stayed in office for at least another 4 years had he not been hamstrung by it, and it's not like Japanese PMs are known for being in office for an elongated period of time anyway.

There are talk that what Abe can do is to resign as PM when his term as LDP President is up in 2018 but then his successor is a puppet who will step down as LDP President after 6 months which will provoke another election which Abe will promptly win. It seems unlikely something obviously fishy will take place.

Abe: The Trujillo of the Pacific!

[jaichind]

One thing I totally missed is that JIP splinter VR (Vision of Reform) (改革結集の会) which has 5 Lower House MPs will also merge into DP along with DPJ and JIP.  Most of these 5 MPs have LDP backgrounds before joining up with JRP back in 2012.  4 of these MPs will join DP, and one of them will join ORA.  Ironically the MP that will join ORA actually spend time in DPJ after being in LDP before joining JRP.  The main reason seems to be the district he would like to contest from in the next Lower House election is already occupied by an existing DPJ and now DP incumbent.  So for him to be able to run he cannot join DP.    The VR MP that spent time in the Far Right Hawk LDP splinter SPJ  which would make him the perfect to join ORA choose to join DP.   The reasons seems to be the same but in the opposite direction. The district he would like to contest from does not have a current DP incumbent making him a shoe-in to be nominated by DP.

[jaichind]

DP-SDP-PLP-JCP grand alliance talks just reached deals in 山形(Yamagata) and the home prefecture of Abe, 山口(Yamaguchi).  This puts Yamagata in play as the joint candidate was the a popular DPJ MP who was narrowly defeated in 2013.  LDP still have a slight edge here but this is another district where LDP could be beaten.

So out of 32 1- member districts there have been opposition deals on 15 of them

青森(Aomori) - DP candidate
宮城(Miyagi) - DP candidate
山形(Yamagata) - center-left independent (former DPJ MP)
栃木(Tochigi) - center-left independent
新潟(Niigata) - PLP candidate
福井(Fukui) - center-left independent
山梨(Yamanashi) - DP candidate
長野(Nagano) - DP candidate
鳥取(Tottori/
島根(Shimane) - center-left independent
徳島(Tokushima)/
高知(Kōchi) - center-left independent
山口(Yamaguchi) - center-left independent
長崎(Nagasaki) - DP candidate
熊本(Kumamoto) - center-left independent
宮崎(Miyazaki) - center-left independent
沖縄(Okinawa) - OSMP candidate

There are ongoing talks on 10 more (which includes the critical 福島(Fukushima), 三重(Mie), and 大分(Ōita))  with the remaining 7 unlikely to reach a deal mostly because of the hostilely of the local DP branch toward JCP.