AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Yoda]

If she runs in 2024 and loses, what are her future prospects? Similar to Tulsi Gabbard?

I'm honestly not sure how many time slots Fox News can make available for "former democrats who effectively got kicked out of the party for being insufferable grandstanders." Maybe she'll have to settle for NewsMax

[Yoda]

Imagine being delusional enough to think you can win as independent.

She basically just needed to act and vote like Mark Kelly, who's far from a socialist, and run unopposed for the Democratic nomination and be favored in a general election. Instead, all the grandstanding and attention-seeking for nothing.

Not for nothing, for her she made bank from wall street and private equity firms in exchange for her gutting bills and blocking progress https://twitter.com/MorePerfectUS/status/1601260245342629889 She'l also definitely get a cushy job in the private sector as a lobbyist or something after she comes in third in the general and likely hands some far-right extremist this seat in a three-way race.

Ah!! Finally! THIS must be it. At long last. All these Wall Street and private equity/hedge fund donations in return for voting their way on legislation must be the "thing" that Sinema Stands For^TM that democrats don't that all the Moderate Heros keep talking about.

[Yoda]

So Gallego sent out this email basically saying he’s going to run, just not yet

So here is the truth about whether or not I am going to run against Senator Sinema:

Yes, I am thinking about it.

Yes, I have already been preparing for this possibility even before her party switch.

Yes, I believe that as a Marine, a Latino, and someone with a record of standing up for working people we can build a coalition that will win a 2-way race, 3-way race, 27-way race… doesn’t matter.

But what I need to know — more than ANYTHING else — is that the grassroots support is there. That’s the piece. If it’s there, this choice is easy.

So today, I am asking:

Please make a $3 contribution to my campaign. We will put it right to work making sure we have the resources we need to defeat Senator Sinema from day one.

I definitely didn't think that my first donation of the '24 cycle was going to be this early, yet here we are.

[Yoda]

PPP out with a new poll commissioned by Gallego’s team.

3-way:
Lake (R) 41%
Gallego (D) 40%
Sinema (I) 13%
Unsure 6%

2-way
Gallego (D) 48%
Lake (R) 47%

2-way
Lake (R) 42%
Sinema (I) 39%
Unsure 19%

Gallego fav: 35/27 (+8)
Sinema fav: 31/47 (-16) ……. 43/27 among Trump voters & 20/69 among Biden voters

https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-poll-ruben-gallego-strongest-candidate-for-2024-az-senate-race

Extremely bad news for Sinema given that Indies poll way better than the actual results, and given her name rec, 13% is a high water mark at this point.

Biased source, but it seems Sinema takes more from Dems than the GOP as expected (despite what many posters here believed)

In the very first real poll on this race, yes. What do you think a good number of the democrats who said they would support Sinema in this poll will do once they see how poorly she is polling and Gallego's name recognition grows? A good portion of them sill switch their support to him as they don't want to see a republican elected to the seat. Now, this will likely happen with some of Sinema's republican supporters as well, but as you pointed out, there's less of them at this point. I see her finishing with under 10% of the vote if she's foolish enough to go through with it.

[Yoda]

Biggest question in this race is whether Sinema is willing to dropout if she is still polling at around 10% in early 2024.

Her polling doesn’t matter, it’s if she stops getting air time.

I dunno, I read someone say that she's probably too vain to stay in if the defeat looks like it will be by a humiliating margin, and I found myself agreeing with that take. She's so self-important that such a loss would shatter her "image."

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/elizacollins1/status/1707382813551690013?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

She has my complete and total endorsement. For the Republican nomination. No matter what Sinema does, this is good news for the Gallego campaign.

Be careful what you wish for.

This is silly. She's the best candidate democrats could hope for in their wildest dreams. She's so far off the reservation she will only get far right voters, while Gallego will carry a higher % of democrats and a higher % of indies. McCain republicans will be split between Gallego and Sinema. Sinema ends up with maaaaaybe 15% of the vote.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/SenatorSinema/status/1765094840214127068

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

TRANSLATION: "After my cute little attempt to remain on the November ballot by becoming an "independent", my fundraising and polling cratered, so I'm making the decision to retire from the Senate and become a lobbyist for Wall Street, specifically most likely the pay day lending industry."

[Yoda]

Say what you will about Sinema. She was effective as a bridge, and I don’t know which Democrats are going to be that liaison to getting things done once her and Manchin leave next year.

Utter nonsense.

Almost every single Democratic senator is willing to or has sponsored bipartisan bills with republicans, usually far right Republicans, even ones you would call far left like Elizabeth Warren. Almost every Democrat was on record willing to support every right wing immigration "reform" bill in the last 20 years, only for Republicans to play politics at the last second and sink their own bills.

The intelligent question to be asking yourself is what Republicans are left who are willing to compromise in good faith?

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/SplitTicket_/status/1765801426092273977

I don't much care for how that map has Ohio and Montana as "Leans republican" even though Brown and Tester have lead in every single poll of their respective races, albeit narrowly. "Tossup" would be acceptable given the MOE and tightness of the polling, leaning the way of the current loser in polling is not.

[Yoda]

AZ will be a nuclear holocaust for the GOP this year. I expect them to lose everything: presidential race, senate race, and the state legislature. Confident Schweikert loses. Ciscomani is iffier.

That would be beyond awesome but I'll believe it when I see it.

[Yoda]

Reread the first five or six pages of this thread any time you need a reminder of who here has a good idea of what's going on.

Thanks for that. That was a hilarious and enlightening reread.

[Yoda]

In Q1 2024:

Lake raised 4.1 million, has 2.5 million on hand
Gallego raised 7.5 million, has 9.6 million on hand

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/14/kari-lake-fundraising-arizona-senate

1 - Great numbers. Gallego is gonna crush this MAGAt

2 - This reminded me I still need to donate to him, as well as Senators Brown and Tester. Off to ActBlue I go....